.
Casa del Energia ..... like your post and connection with Heisenberg !!!
Having directly or indirectly owned NZOG shares for over 22 years, IMHO share price is driven, up or down, by:
1) major company events, such as drilling prospects and results, plus FIDs, DoC approval of Pike, seismic results (eg 3D over Ngataro indicated reserve of 3-5 mmbo, instead of 20 mmbo, result was collapse of share price from 115 to 45 cents back in the 1990s), plus more recently the start up in field production (eg Tui), as well as capital raising deadlines and aftermath, and quarterly and annual Reports.
2) Price of oil and coking coal
3) Market sentiment re NZOG as a company
4) Overall global and local market sentiment
Seems to me most of the TA turning points can be explained by 1) above, with additional influence from 2).
3) and 4) provided a more general influence affecting overal trends.
Regarding local market sentiment, for ages NZOG was ignored or denigrated by brokers, and the Sharetrader NZOG thread provided a very useful channel for investor information and sentiment formation.
Over the years NZOG thread on Sharetrader has been by far the most active -- by an order of magnetude the thread has the highest number of posts and views of posts as compared to any other thread or company discussed on Sharetrader.
For years NZOG share register was dispersed over thousands of individual shareholders with few big institutional parcels. Even today insto holdings are still relatively modest. And the buy-sell pressures have been largely energised by the decissions of inviduals holding relatively small parcels of shares.
Given the role of Sharetrader in providing individual NZOG shareholders with info and a forum for discussion, my gut feeling, and experience, is that between major company or market events, commentary on Sharetrader can affect shareholder sentiment and this can lead to up or down fluctuations and trends in the share price untill the next major event/announcement/report arrives.
Hence in my view the NZOG share price can be influenced and indeed manipulated by discussions and posts on this thread, at least until the next significant event occurs.
The attack on the company and the share price by Sniper / Balance / and others in the run up to the exercise of the OC options was one of the worst examples of negative manipulation of NZO's share price.
Of course, there is a place for negative views and posts, supported by reasonable argument and relevant info, regarding NZOG's prospects. Such posts are necessary in forming a view on risk/reward ratios etc.
Likewise positive posts should also be supported by info and reasonable argument.
It is the positive support of individual investors that has kept NZOG alive, and facilitated the various capital raising activities leading up to the present strong position of the company.
I am pleased to see that this thread is now being actively monitored with a view to screening out destructive posters who appear to hate the company and its shareholders, or who may be attempting significant manipulation of share holder sentiment.
Z
.