Oil price has pushed back over US$130 ..... very early morning serious trading now starting up on the Nymex.
Will be interesting to see in which direction will go the rest of the day's trading.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/88
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Printable View
Oil price has pushed back over US$130 ..... very early morning serious trading now starting up on the Nymex.
Will be interesting to see in which direction will go the rest of the day's trading.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/CL_/88
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That Puppet Rice has opened her mouth again...Iran...two weeks...or else. And Peters is going to be in the limelight again. She must really like him. She is coming to see Winston.
I mean, why else would she come to NZ?
She has a pretty busy fortnight coming up.
And oil therefore goes higher.
Talk about an emotional roller coaster. One weeks I'm up 12% the next I'm nearly down 10%! Not the greatest feeling.
I've been toying with the idea of selling first thing in the morning and taking the hit. But I know it's buying into the fear that others have obviously reacted to. The quarterly report is also in the back of my mind.
It's definitely opened my eye's to the importance of TA. For which I know very little.
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Sux, you are right if the oil price falls, then NZOG will fall, ur not exactly a genius .....
stop talking out of your arse, you have no idea what your on about, nzo drop below $1 pffft.. blatant troll account here.
love your twisted logic mate. Here is another along the same line. NZ has been found to be floating on oil. The news shook the world so much that the price of oil fell below extraction cost so the oil is not worth producing.
You wouldn't have another alais named Balance would you??
Lols, but you have come in fresh without any reference in an offside position. And that's a penalty.
So you had better go and read Twilight in the Desert and tell us what you think of it.
Oil could do anything but in the end it goes higher.
But, welcome to the forum. All views appreciated as long as they are supported with a reasonable argument.
Lot of guys and gals panicking at the moment. It reminds me of those wildebeest running into the jaws of the crocodiles.
Good point.
2 key factors come to mind. Oil dropping below $100 should there be any significant downturn or correction. The other is Pike. If Pike strikes problems, delays of 2 months or more sentiment will drive the sp down. Since oil is still high it can potentially go one way or the other to quite an extreme. Hence my low valuation of $1.10 to $1.20 if either or both of these factors come into play.
The flip side has the potential to rocket the sp for many number of reasons. PRC takeover by the Indians, NZO a potential takeover. High renveue with long term revenue streams. Oil prices spiking (which may be good short term but bad long term) and so on.
Hope that sheds some light.
disc. hold nzo
very debatable what POO will do in next few weeks - we certainly do not know.
what we do know however is weather issues in caribbean are starting to come into play
[remember usa has not had a bit hit from a hurricane for 2 seasons now] - already up to "D" for named systems and not even end of July.
given recent one day spikes in the POO, then its only a matter of how long it takes for adverse weather to have a significant influence in one day POO spike - it might be as soon as tomorrow.
why the price of WTI and not Tapis is pushed bythe media in au/nz is another issue - said it before, nzo should detail the tapis price in all their announcements, so people do not get mislead by WTI.
M
Warren Buffett means when he says " be brave when others are fearful and fearful when others are brave".
This would have to be the most misguided quote in the investment world.
I hate it:mad:
I would hate to think how many (some inexperienced) investors have taken this piece of advice and have lost everything.
Most times bravery is mistaken for calculated action.
Soldiers who risk their lives to save others against huge odds are brave and they deserve their medals and the public's admiration
Investors being brave risking everything....nah Stupid!!!
While we are on the subject of risk.
THIS IS HOW HOOP SEES THE REVELANCE OF USING SIMPLE TA within my bear market investment strategy ( I have my moments:o:))
NZO firing off sell signals since its decline from 168c has now hit its 154c or (152or3) Phaedrus support line. If this support fails we have to look at 132/5cents for the next major major support level set back in July 07 with that of early March 2008 (Phaedrus chart has it at 128 my chart 132 but this immaterial)
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Originally Posted by shephejame http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Talk about an emotional roller coaster. One weeks I'm up 12% the next I'm nearly down 10%! Not the greatest feeling.
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Shephejame Resource stocks are well known rollercoasters....many investors avoid them especially the conservative types with quezzy tummies...adrenlin junkies love them:D:D:D.
Also Shephejame if you are thinking of exiting don't take my exiting strategy advice.
As an investor I have one great failing..... when I exit I go splat!! :o
I can't time a good exit to save my soul.
Always seem to sell at the bottom of the days prices a natural ability I am not proud of....however a bad exit at that time doesn't seem so bad a few days later.
FOR EXAMPLE ...MY LATEST SPLAT! NZO (TA sell signals appeareared) tried a greedy exit last friday and stuffed up, ended up several cents lower at 162 with still no sells... so made my mind up to sell at market(162)but only a quarter of my holding hoping for a bounce off the small support 162 level before I sell the other quarter ...but...no bounce :( so ended selling half today at 156. Still have a quarter holding left.....holding a slight paper loss (instead of small profit) at the moment due to greed.( I bought this whole holding at 161c a month ago) so it's been minimal loss, maximum effort, maximum mess.
The reason why I am selling/sold NZO
1 The bear has found the NZO hiding place (TA sell signals)..and from past experience I have learnt not to fight bears...it's much financially healthier to run away and hide somewhere else.....DONT BE BRAVE. Bugger the FA as the bear can't count.
2 NZO may or may not hold support at 153. It has much risk attached to it, and my chosen bear market investing strategy won't allow this ..so I keep to the discipline of my strategy which says sell. If it holds that's great I can always buy back in.... I have that freedom of choice. If it breaks 153 support it has a more than 50% chance of testing the next 132/5 support and some chance again reaching the 120c TA target.
3 The upside... if 153c support level holds it will require momentum (Not on Phaedrus chart) which has just gone negative so there is no upward push (pressure) If tomorrow onwards brings in buyer numbers and upward pressure there are resistance levels at 162/3 (old support level) and again at 170/1 then 180 and 186 to contend with. At the moment the momentum indicators are showing that 162/3 resistance is going to be difficult to break.
Therefore what TA is telling me today is I am facing a lesser chance of a 10c gain and a bigger chance of 20c loss so sell as the odds are against me. However (for the optimist) tommorrow is another day and TA will be telling me an updated version.. perhaps better odds? Who knows.??.. I could be buying NZO again in a couple weeks ..one just never knows.
4 Better performing stocks elsewhere but risky at the moment, possible bear market rally forming in equities..will wait for comformation ( TA buy signals in individual stocks)
5 Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice.
6 Riding out the downtrend may lock you in if the anticipated rebound does not materialise..therefore giving you restricted choice..I don't want that at the maturing end of a bear market, as bargains will be appearing shortly and I want money to shopping.
A few of you are wondering where on earth that 120c figure came from when Dr Who mentioned and also what Nita quoted
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Originally Posted bymacduffyhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Hi doc
I don't understand much of this tech stuff but what do you base the $1-20 - $1-10 on ?
The only support I can see is around the $1 mark.
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It is a TA target formula if the 153 support line is broken
153 - (186 - 153) = 120c
Before you all go out tommorrow and sell.....On the bright side of things...
TA is not an exact science but does give you odds to reckon with. It all depends on what type of Investor you are and your ability to accept risk and at what degrees of risk you are willing to take to accept the reward offered. Using TA tools gives you the playing field and you the investor mark out it's boundaries to play in. For example if you are a long term medium risk investor... willing to risk downturns for better long term reward and is adverse to frequent buy and sells (e.g Tax + IRD) then short/medium indicators tell you what type of storm is approaching and you can assess whether to weather it out or not and would note that the 15 month uptrend line is still in place and it would need the NZO price to fall below 110c to create a long term downtrend ...so TA wise... some long termers will not react to these recent sell signals as their individual investment strategy does not require them to. Also TA is less important to the long and very long investors FA would probably be more important to them.
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NZOGSUXS Hello ..bye.. very quick Cameo... won't be missed
...Wrong Company mate This one is a NZ gem. NZO is helping New Zealand stay out of the economic $hit. You wishing it to go down will affect your back pockey .....less mun less fun....comprendo amigo!!
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PS ......Sorry about the colour my spell checker has thrown a wobbly
Well i could not sleep being out off NZO and every thing points to a strong buy,so i'm in boots and all.I just love this story.
Seems like NZOGSUX has gone already.
This is a reply to someone with a sense of humour who obviously was poking harmless fun at the blue eyed brigade.
Whats wrong with you VINCE banning NZOGSUX and letting this idiot off. You are turning into an easily manipulated do gooder. I object to posts like the above from people who have nothing to contribute other than low life gutter talk. It takes all types to make a market some of you people want to lighten up before the crash. Macdunk
Hoop your last post was too long to quote directly. What traders leave out of th equation compared to long term holders is the tax requirements.If i sold out of NZO i have held them quite a number of years and would not be subjected to tax.Your in and out is loaded with commission and tax which makes the net to the invester a very different story.
Traders have a lot more records to keep and sometimes from my early trading dats get tied up taking losses you did not want to to balance out a upcoming tax bill. The tax i found became an unwelcome consideration that ends up bending your investment decisions.
In a way deciding to trade on TA sell or buy signals comes down to a choice of investing lifestyle.Fortunes can certainly be made but mostly they are achieved in hindsight.TA followers never wisper a word about the false signals they followed.
Naturally we all have to make our own choices.
My view is Buy now.
This stock is now on the Ausi's radar screen so expect greater volatility. This makes trading ranges larger as the day traders treat it like any other stock. Why buy now? 192 million were bought for a $1.50 so that implies a little bit of support no matter what the chart says and it can / will rise just as quick. May I suggest a baby steps approach with a little position that is added to if / when it moves into profit, as otherwise the SP will have risen before the chart says it is time to buy (unless you have real time data).
The economic outlook for the WORLD economy (US is not the only user of oil - just the owner of the world's media outlets) has improved a little with circa 3% growth - up from 2.5ish for 2009. Hardly the end of the world.
The other little item that will DOMINATE the next couple of months far more than the depressed US consumer is Hurricanes in the gulf of Mexico. A big storm year is picked. Anyone remember a fiesty lass called Katrina? I am sure CNN etc will love it!
Tapis 140.42 +0.45 +0.32% PrevClse:139.97 1Wk:150.06 4Wk:139.45 (Tapis higher than it was 1 month ago........)
NZO is a crazy share, god... Goes up a few cents and everyone starts talking about how its going to hit $2, hell even $3 within a few weeks... Goes down a few cents, next minute everyone is going on about how POO is about to hit <$100 a barrel, and NZO is destined for sub $1 (LOL).
Just relax people, geeeeeeezzzzzz.... I sold the lot at 1.88 at a screaming profit, knowing that she was going to have a decent correction due to oppies conversion, unstable POO, and possible dry Momoho drill.... But couldn't live without NZO so bought them all back + a bit more at the same price :)
If NZO doesn't hit $2 before year end I'll eat my hat, all these short term fluctuations are neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned
Digger agree mostly with what you say
I make sure I have an open mind to anything, as anything can happen.
TA can go wrong (not an exact science) when it does..one type of false action is called a trap.
For those people with NZO on margins this may ease your uneaseness.
quote from CNBC this morning over 80% of the traders think the recent oil movement down could be a bear trap.
Breaking News........there is a tech wreck happening in America as I write with after hours trading, so tomorrow equities in USA may be ugly and today in Asia we may see a big equity drop and odds on that available money may flee back to Oil commodites.
This is the buying pressure NZO needs to hold 153 support and to advance upwards....
What a diffence 9 hours has made since my last post.
Disc: have just removed my sell order for the rest of NZO shares
2. China's Energy Shortages
With preparations for a successful Olympics giving the country a new sense of purpose, so far China has had to contend with severe blizzards, a major earthquake, an unusually hot summer, and now an electricity shortfall which could set records. In the midst of all this, Beijing reports that its GDP is still growing at better than 10 percent a year, implying that demand for oil and electricity continues to grow.
Until recently many thought that the growing electricity shortfall would force a repeat of 2004 when China’s oil imports jumped suddenly so that local diesel generators could make up for inadequate power from the national grid. In recent days, however, Beijing has gone to great lengths to explain that there will be no surge in China’s demand for imported oil to make up for shortfalls in electric power production. The Chinese point out that the cost of imported diesel has risen four-fold in the last four years making enterprise-generated electricity uneconomical.
Given the current state of world oil markets, China’s demand for crude and oil products over the next six months may be key to world prices. Unlike four years ago when demand got ahead of generating capacity, this time it is a coal shortage that is reducing electrical output. China’s shortfall in electricity production is currently reported to be around 30 gigawatts as compared to a 40 gigawatt shortage in 2004. China has already increased coal production by 11 percent to 1.2 billion tons in the first half, but is having trouble delivering the increased production to power plants. Coal stockpiles have dropped 8 percent in the last two weeks. Spot coal prices in China have doubled since the first of the year and price caps on electricity have complicated the situation.
In the first half of the year, China’s crude imports increased by 3.2 percent while imports of gasoline and diesel jumped many fold to make up for problems created by the earthquake and to ensure that embarrassing shortages would not develop. During the Olympics, China already has banned 300,000 heavy trucks from entering the area around Beijing, shut down polluting plants and construction sites, and banned half the region’s 3 million cars from driving each day using an odd-even license plate system. These measures alone will obviously save prodigious quantities of motor fuels and ensure there will not be shortages during the Olympics.
The key issue for the oil markets is what will happen in the fall. Beijing insists that GDP growth will continue to be in the vicinity of 10 percent no matter what happens to the world economy. The surge in coal production and transportation during the last six months is likely to be unsustainable. Chinese auto sales now are running at a rate of 10 million new cars a year. Like oil, world coal markets are extremely tight. Given the complexity of the situation, the prospects for Chinese imports over the next year are cloudy. Despite Beijing’s insistence that increased oil imports are not likely this year, they may turn out to be necessary if China is to maintain its goals for economic growth.
I hope poster will see between the lines what i mean about China doing everything to have fuel available for the olympics and why this will for the very short period of the games put downward pressure on world oil prices.Note China big oil imports in the first 6 months.This will allow them to somewhat withdraw now to ease prices.
Hoop said: "Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice." So what do you intend to do with it Hoop? Currently NZO's cash and "current" assets are being heavily discounted particularly as inflation is increasing. Go to Zimbabwe and convert your cash to their cash:rolleyes: Perhaps this is just an opportunity to buy - at least some people think so if for every seller there is a buyer.
Could be a big if as they are possibly adding to a short position to (partially) protect their long position in case the world capitulates or oil goes below USD50 - it is behaviour like this that can cause the world to capitulate....
I think another poster (maybe Digger) mentioned that the NZO share price has retreated in the past around "significant" events and I was in general agreement so didn't think much more about it until I was looking at the following chart. Perhaps we have over-reacted to whoever makes a habit of helping the SP down because it fades into the curve as NZO progresses. Now how will this current blip look at $3.00?:)
Oil prices back up
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10522811Quote:
8:11AM Tuesday July 22, 2008
http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/im...lpumps2301.jpg
NEW YORK - Oil prices rose overnight on a threat of new sanctions against Iran and as Tropical Storm Dolly headed into the Gulf of Mexico.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery added US$2.16 to settle at US$131.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was oil's first gain in a week.
Energy traders bid oil prices up after a weekend meeting between Iran and six world powers, including the US, failed to break the deadlock over Iran's disputed nuclear programme.
In her first public comments since Saturday's meeting in Switzerland, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice accused Iran of not being serious at the talks despite the presence of a senior US diplomat, and warned it may soon face new sanctions. The six nations have given Tehran a two-week deadline to freeze suspect activities and start negotiations or be hit with new penalties.
Iran is Opec's second largest oil producer and No. 2 in terms of the world's natural gas reserves.
Investor perception about the likelihood of conflict between Iran and the West has been a major reason for oil's rise in recent months. Traders fear Tehran could respond to an attack aimed at halting uranium enrichment by blocking oil supplies in the strategically situated Straight of Hormuz, a passageway that handles 40 per cent of the world's tanker traffic.
"The buying has picked up ... as US traders return to their desks after a weekend in which the only outcome to the much-anticipated talks in Geneva between Iran and the West was disappointment," Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy's director of market research, said in a research note.
Oil prices also rose on Monday on concerns that Tropical Storm Dolly may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Royal Dutch Shell PLC began evacuating workers from some of work sites in the western part of the Gulf, although it said it did not expect Dolly to affect production.
ctd...
Here is a longterm NZO chart that may be of interest. The histogram at the bottom is Volume, with green bars marking up-days and red bars marking down-days. I have selected the highest volume days and marked their corresponding price point with blue arrows, sized according to the volume. You can see that these almost invariably mark significant tops and that the higher the volume, the more significant the top.
Price/Volume climaxes like these (sometimes called blowoffs) commonly take place at the top of trending moves. Prices peak on high volumes then retreat and these climaxes often mark important turning points. Such "over-reactions" are a normal and fairly common occurance and need no conspiracy theories to explain them.
The chart clearly shows the extended trading range that NZO was in for 3 years.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO722.gif
Bilo asks "How will this current blip look at $3.00?".
Answer :- The same as it looks now.
The biggest, clearest, most obvious Price/Volume climax that NZO has had, to date.
Beautiful chart Phaedrus, sometimes you surpass your own high standards!
It is not a conspiracy theory. This type of shorting is a practice expounded as a good use, by Macquarie, for shorting capability on the Macquarie Prime website. You have to love dual listed shares designed to attract Aussie underarm 'ers...and how low can you take the NZO share price with this sort of behaviour - well as low as you can find shares to sell.... and probably not lower than shares you hold....Particularly with a host of NZ institutions who refuse to trade. The "we just hold brigade" and we hope "not loan" either.
Bilo Quote green Hoop reply black
..."Hoop said: "Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice." So what do you intend to do with it Hoop?
Hopefully beat MacDunk to the roadkill :D:D:D ...nah seriously ...when investor conditions improve and the equity market risk factor diminishes my cash % will drop... at the moment my portfolio is cash 80% shares 20% Currently NZO's cash and "current" assets are being heavily discounted particularly as inflation is increasing. and NZ$ falling...that's the minus side the plus is they get more NZ$ per barrel. The NZO fundamentals are great the only fundamental negative is management..I don't have total belief that they will invest that money to its maximum potential. I kept on having paranoia type nightmares that they going to pour all this money back down a black empty hole(s) then turn around and ask us investors for more. In saying that, I'm realistic to the point that this won't entirely happen, but they will have failures ..that the nature of the Oil business..so I guess the market factors this in the FA somehow and that perceived risk value shaves a few cents of the NZO share-price. This perceived risk value is a variable as investors will have different degrees of anxiety at different times. Go to Zimbabwe and convert your cash to their cash:rolleyes: Perhaps this is just an opportunity to buy - at least some people think so if for every seller there is a buyer. Yep its called the Marketplace the quick,astute, experienced and skilled win out the rest lose..that's life, even in Zimbabwe.
Could be a big if as they are possibly adding to a short position to (partially) protect their long position in case the world capitulates or oil goes below USD50 - it is behaviour like this that can cause the world to capitulate.... Fully agree!! Humans are animals therefore humans have animal survival instincts and can act in group paranoia (illogical type) such as a stampede behaviour for no reason. The market is a group therefore read up on group behaviour and investment behaviour ...then you realise that an individual and small groups of individuals cannot alter the overall market. The bear market has much illogical behaviour... can't fight it but we can learn to take advantage of it, by adopting Bear market Investment Strategies
I think another poster (maybe Digger) mentioned that the NZO share price has retreated in the past around "significant" events and I was in general agreement so didn't think much more about it until I was looking at the following chart. Yes Digger is very knowledgeable in the Oil area and his posts are valuable to us less knowledgeable people. He has told us he has been a very long investor in NZO so He would be the best to judge the behaviour of this stock (NZO) and its share price Perhaps we have over-reacted we always do ..human behaviour to whoever makes a habit of helping the SP down This thread is well known for its ramping and anti ramping because it fades into the curve as NZO progresses. Now how will this current blip look at $3.00?:)..." Don't know that answer, if I knew I 'd be richer than Buffet:cool:
Isnt it great that we dont know the future. Apart from the obvious, no one can say with any degree of accuracy what will happen in 24 hours time.Will oil drop $15 in 1 day, will it spike $15...yardi ya. One thing i do know life is a lot more simpler when you are investing with other peoples money rather than your own.
I love the debate between TA and FA. Actually no one is wrong. It simply depends on what gets the juices flowing. As Bermuda pointed out. Sit and hold since 26 cps about 5 years ago makes pretty comfortable lifestyle. On the other hand, JK or DM making 100% profits plus per year must also make them feel king. Point is, everyone has their own levles of risk management etc. Someone at 60 is less likely to take a risk that someone at 20.
discl. fundamentalist and believe a lot less in TA.
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I trust the fate. “When I have the money but the prises are high, when I need the money but the prises are low”.
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NITA, JOE KING and Macdunk dont claim to make 100% each year even although we did it in 2007. The idea when investing is to understand the market you are in.
If you look at the ASX competition [they are not game to show the NZX results] it is run FA style hold for one fool year. I am minus 32% and in the top half STRAT and SERPIE are fighting over the wooden spoon. TA would have seen me get out with a 5% loss with my money safely tucked up in the bank.
NZO have a great source of income over the short to medium term but thats not what will control the sp, which is dictated by market sentiment. When the market crashes which it will do shortly after the olympics the price of oil will double.
When it hits the $200 dollar a barrel mark, it will send the global economy into a deep recession. The NZO sp will tumble, not because of lack of profits, but simply panic selling in a crashing market. The JOE KINGS and the MACDUNKS are smart enough to see it coming, and will be well gone before it hits the fan. Macdunk
I know market sentiment is a powerful force but the brokers will be recommending NZO at $US200 a barrel. And Kupe ( 2/3 rds liquids ) will be coining it too next year.
Macdunk,
Things are going to get a lot worse but at US200 a barrel I think NZO could attract a lot of attention particularly as Kupe is a longterm secure revenue earner.
China to increase oil product reserves after price hike - report
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - China will increase its reserves of oil products following the recent fuel price hike in order to ensure a level of emergency supply, the official Shanghai Securities News reported.
Su Bo, director of the State Reserves Bureau, was quoted as saying that refiners are expanding capacity after the oil products price hike last month, and specific plaans to raise reserve levels will be implemented soon.
The bureau in May released reserves in order to ensure supply in Sichuan province, which was hit by a strong earthquake.
Su said the bureau plans to increase the number of fuel tanks, with construction of some tanks already started.
The paper said Yunnan and Sichuan provinces in the southwest are among the priority areas for reserve capacity expansion.
Note its "reserve capacity expansion" not replenishment.
Jez someone wants at few at $1.55
Dr Who,
thats the best question i have read in ages.
buy a midcap with 50 or 60 mmbo in place and cap it, till its needed as an emergency resource......... problem is....... if its a stratigic resource...... they will need it in place on the home land..... otherwise its pointless.
China Communist Party official urges use of forex reserves to buy resources
21 Jul 2008
Xinhua Newsfeed
BEIJING (MNI) - China should use its foreign exchange reserves to purchase overseas energy and mining assets amid surging international oil prices, a senior official with the Communist Party proposed.
"The value of China's foreign exchange reserves has shrunk badly because of US dollar depreciation and in the meantime spending lots of dollars purchasing crude oil at very high prices," Li Lianzhong, head of the economic department under the Chinese Communist Party Policy Research Office, told a conference over the weekend.
"We should encourage our companies to purchase overseas mines and oil fields, changing foreign exchange reserves into resources reserves," he said.
this is also an interesting read:
http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=953
They may need a 700mmbo field...
Read somewhere that they are focusing on crude first vs. refined, using up to 30 tankers moored in ports.
Pity the joe kings and mack dunks did not call the looming housing crisis before it happened...Quote:
The JOE KINGS and the MACDUNKS are smart enough to see it coming, and will be well gone before it hits the fan. Macdunk
Job only half compete Id say...
;)
.^sc
Just relax people, geeeeeeezzzzzz.... I sold the lot at 1.88 at a screaming profit, knowing that she was going to have a decent correction due to oppies conversion, unstable POO, and possible dry Momoho drill.... But couldn't live without NZO so bought them all back + a bit more at the same price
You didn't know there was going to be a screaming correction, you guessed right, in fact they hit $1.90 came back to $1.70 rose to $1.84 and now back to where they are now but goood on you for buying back, I always look at that with the benefit of hindsight of course!
SHREWDY the JOE KINGS and the Macdunks have just done that. The housing cycle is an on going event that moves on. Property developers expect it to happen, and indeed hope it happens. The share market crash is different it takes the blue eyed brigade out the market never to return. I have been predicting the crash for the last seven months in the share market its only 30% down tell me at what level we can call it a crash. The only people hurting in the housing downtrend are the over committed and the greedy. Macdunk
Duncan - what % loss do you call a crash, I always assumed it to be 20%?
NZO looks cheap all right had to buy another 22,000 at 121.5 ASX -am confindent we'll see NZO form a base at these levels 1,20's asx 1.50's nzx even if oil falls back futher NZO are awash with cash in there bank account with high NZ Interest rates adding futher to NZO bottom line
with all these bargins round NZO should be able to pick up some great assets on the cheap
well well well mackdunk,Quote:
the JOE KINGS and the Macdunks have just done that
you said one thing... then went out and did the exact opposite...
we could make a good team... your skills on the sharemarket, my skills in the housing market....:D
I wont quote that infamous quote of yours, backed up by the king...You know the one...
I'll leave all the housing chit chat to that appropriate thread...
have a good night...
:cool:
.^sc
To sum it up, NZO will still be a fundamentally good buy at current prices if oil goes back to $100.
1. Tui - $1m day in cash, this field has outperformed expectations by far.
2. Kupe - Stable income for the next decade starting 2009.
3. Pike -Worth $3 a share possibly, NZO holds 31%.
Really depends on the price of oil. If oil goes into a medium term downtrend back to 60, I don't think any oilers will perform.
R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = desperate = banned ???
R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = TROLL = banned
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Troll = computer Yabo
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...tlibre_jnl.jpg
A Yabo: "unrefined, gigantic, coarse, childish, self-conscious, permanent, loud, superficial, vulgar, snobbish, boorish"
(wikipedia)
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AMR....if you dont mind
...me thinks this is another piss taker like those posted by cujo....whatever ....just out there taking the micheal because he can..and nothing more...best disregarded me thinks..
Cheers troy
R.Sole = NZOGSUX = balance = TROLL = banned
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Troll = internet Yabo
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...tlibre_jnl.jpg
A Yabo: "unrefined, gigantic, coarse, childish, self-conscious, permanent, loud, superficial, vulgar, snobbish, boorish"
(wikipedia)
.
NZO will be north of $3.00 within 6 months. NZO is sooooo undervalued its crazy.
rsole. I love your name especially when you say it fast aye.
Good luck with your investing.. another good stock you should jump all over is dpc. its been discountd by over 90%.. this must the the most under valued stock here.
Malcolm you are describing the undulating plateau as I first read from oil exectives.This was given as oppossed to a peak in production---oil drops ---economic activity increases---causes oil demand to increase----leads to oil price increasing--leads to reduced demand--leads to oil droping----etc
But that is not how i see it.I am sticking my neck out and saying China is as much as possible removing itself from the buying market to lower prices to put on a happy face for the Games.So yes in the short term oil will fall to about 120 is my guess.Enjoy it while it lasts.
Oil down to $126 - not a biggie.
Remember, Tui was given the green light based on US $40.
Your only saying what 30 other smart as*ses have said before (and been wrong aswell)
Give some justification of why you think the price is overvalued, because there is plenty of posts arguing the opposing side of the arguement.
I dont hold this stock, but i like to see intelligent discussion which i can use to form an outline for my research on stocks.
I also enjoy reading the negative posts on companies in the hot seat like this one, but not ones set out to aggrevate readers.
Try be a little less aggressive and a little more constructive in your comments, although my guess is your not here to be constructive. Your just here to fling your monkey poo
Rsole - shouldn't you be posting on an alternate energy forum since you have only emitted gas so far. Can you please tell me WHY you think this stock is overvalued? If it is due to oil falling by say 50% to around US$60 - what will make oil fall that far? Will cars be banned? Are you secretly aware of a new hydrogen type power that will revolutionise life in the 21st century. I would love to know what it is. Please keep on posting because I love the harmony between your name & what flows after.
Get ready for everything in the garden is lovely. Price of oil will stay down for the next few weeks, and the markets will rise. The olympics must be seen to be a success, China must save face at what ever the cost. Its after that when they pull the financial legs and wings off that Yanky aggressive pest, that the trouble really starts. The price of oil will hit $200 in less than twelve months, crashing the world markets. NZO might have money sitting in the bank, but what will that money be worth. I took my money to Australia at 90c it is sitting on a 13% gain in 20 months. Not bad interest for changing countries. Anyone thinking long term is in for a rude shock, when the markets crash. The signs are well posted just like they were in 1987 with the only difference this one will be bigger and longer.
Macdunk
Macd - "Markets" will likely crash at 200 poo - that does not mean that the oil sector will crash though - just the other sectors - the oil sector will probably show 100% gains unless other forms of energy are immediately available. A worse outcome for the oil sector would be poo of $50 - then the oil sector would crash & "markets" rally hugely
Why all the negative sentiment with Momoho not coming in. It cost $50 million for the rig. NZOs portion of that was $8 000 000. So Momoho is capped but it only lost NZO 8 days of income. At these levels, Im definitely buying more.
Keep hearing this phrase lately...market noise.
definition of Noise is scrambled data (or sound waves)
Listening to it and absorbing scrambled data makes one undecided, confused:confused: and cause error in thinking, therefore create short term mistakes.
Probably made one of those short term mistakes today at 10.01 this morning sold the rest of NZO for 155...probably go splatt with my exit.
Trying to research market noise ...it usually occurs at a transitional phase of a market cycle whether up or down and it divides people investors and traders alike, both long and short investing yield no good results.
Therefore decided to exit and wait for clear direction to emerge.
NZO is definitately on my watch list, too good a company to ignore.
Seems to be a move to equities with a hint of a rally..this will move available money away from Commodities, e.g oil ,metals etc for the meantime......maybe....who knows?? with all this global noise, Hoops confused:confused::confused:
Disc: only have PPP left rest in cash.
Thanks Upmop. I am interested in the future of NZO and not the current sp as most posters here complain about. I have a funny feeling that NZO will announce a acquisition soon with all that cash. Good or bad acquisition, I dont know, only time will tell.
More drilling acquisition would be good. :) Better still, buy PPP out cheap with current market sentiment. Imagine having over 20% of Tui and all the cash flowing in.
TUI surpasses 15million barrels
Quote:
The Tui Area Oil Fields are located in the offshore Taranaki basin, New Zealand, approximately 50km off the coast in water depth of about 120m. Production began on 30 July 2007 - just 4½ years after discovery, and 20 months after the investment decision was taken. Tui was New Zealand's first stand-alone offshore oil development.
Production Performance:
On 22 July 2008 total Tui production passed the 15 million barrel mark - less than a year after production began on 30 July 2007. In the original projections, total production was not expected to reach 15 mmbbls until mid-2009.
http://www.nzog.com/n37.html
I think that the next "find" will most probably be a reserves upgrade of Kupe or maybe, just maybe an aquisition;
KUPE:
"A reserve reassessment is expected following full analysis of information gained during the development well drilling".
Wouldn't imagine this will be too far away and there is always the potential for yet another Tui upgrade - seems to be performing Extremely well after end June/beginning July's daily output hickup which was weather and testing related.
Any upgrade of reserves tends to be taken as a given by the market and therefore has no risk/little associated with it as comapred to exploratory drilling.
Your first few sentences is simply acknowledging Diggers sentiments but you put your own interesting words on it
Investors who bought on magin to convert miust be getting nervous. I refer back to a golden rule regarding not to borrow to invest. Subjective but more specifically margin, private loads etc. Off setting agaisnt your mortgage is not so bad as long as you maitain some reasonable equity
I understand nz has some not so nice weather. This will effect production for a few days i guess
Im reading off the 2006 Annual report...Quote:
shephejame-41,700 barrels per day, for 365 days. Outstanding.
What was the figure they had expected to pull out in the first year?
NZO's 2P reserves were 3.5 Million barrels..
and 30% of oil reserves expected to be recovered in the first year...
3.5/.125= 28 million barrels of oil
28,000,000*.3= 8.4 million barrels produced in the first year...
41,700*365= 15.2 million barrels recovered
:cool:
.^sc
WOW MUMMA
:cool:
.^sc
When I did a course on TA, a couple of Americans came over to NZ and started off with a few rules about the size of the companies that you monitor. At that point they were able to tell us, don't worry about moving the market, because you won't.
If those rules were applied to NZ stocks, Telecom would probably be the only stock that would qualify for trading using TA.
I do believe that you can use TA to identify buy and sell signals with stocks like NZO, but I am concerned that we can move the market and the signals can become self fulfilling prophecies. If a handful of us put a stop loss sell order at 150, once 150 is reached there could suddenly be a few million shares for sale at market price, and there may not be enough buyers before we get to 100. This effect could already be causing the volatility that we have seen.
Perhaps NZO should look at directing some exploration money into Fiji...
Extract Wednesday, July 23, 2008- [
According to the report, "The Petroleum Potential of Fiji," over 20 structural reefal traps have been identified on seismic lines within the Bligh Water Basin with unrisked recoverable oil reserves.
It is estimated each structure has reserves of at least 270 million barrels. ]
http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=95833
Don't put an actual stop in the market, it will get hunted down. The big boys sell to trip your stop so they can enter on the cheap.
All these spikes you see on the intraday charts are due to people leaving stops on with big orders and temporarily flooding the markets.
Looking at the fairly high number of shares going through today I was wondering how this fits into a price/volume spike or "blowoff" as referred to by the chart Phaedrus did a while back, only I was thinking this is a reverse price spike because it is at the bottom of a decline in the sp over recent days. 1.7m shares through today and holding @ $1.53 - $1.54
.
I spotted this news release, which might give us some idea for the oil future situation.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/C...o=&asxCode=aiz
“Air NZ Fuel Hedge Position as at 21 July 2008”
ps. I know it is not crude oil.
disc. I don’t have any knowledge about oil including cooking oil and oil hedging.
.
Interesting to note the big volume is only on the NZX especially as there were commentators on this forum at earlier times espousing the knowledge and wisdom of Ausies in understanding "oilers".
Seems several buyers in NZ are keen on NZO at these levels.
What is your definition of a crash & can you tell us again at what cross rate you moved your $ to Australia (a great move, I'm off on holiday to Sunshine coast in 2 weeks and price of holiday just gets a little dearer!) - some of us may have missed it?!
TIM I moved all my investments to AUSTRALIA dec 2006 NZD was worth 90c today its worth 77c to 78c. My definition of a crash is when all the good companies end up in prolonged downtrends. We have exceptions at the start of a downtrend leading up to no exceptions in a crash. Dead cat bounces become common but in the end fall by the wayside. The market has crashed in NZ. Manufacturing is gone, retail is a disaster, even companies with a source of income like NZO get caught up fighting against the falling tide. Leave your money in Australia Tim the NZD still has a long way to fall. Macdunk
I agree with Macdunk about the Aussie/NZ exchange rate. I did the same.
But dont forget that the income from Tui, Kupe and Pike is in US dollars.
NZO, the best performing company on the NZX. One million dollars per day and with Kupe to come on stream next year, plus a share of Pike at record ( and increasing ) coking coal prices.
I have seen this post option performance before.* Price of oil went down but Tapis held up. Reason...the world supply of sweet light crude has well and truly peaked.
*Dont be scared off by all these guys who bought in at the margin. Get stuck in now and and reap the rewards.
Well done you guys; thought about it especially at the time of T3 - I didn;t do it, could have should have no excuses!
I think you'll find they havent...
Hi R.sole. Cool name.
I was referring to the post before yours by the bowman...you were just too quick.
Momoho might not be finished...further evaluation and potential drilling on north side.
What stocks have you held this year?
Straight off their website:
To provide downside protection against any substantial fall in oil prices, PPP hedged by way of put options approximately 719,000 barrels of oil being 50% of the first three years budgeted production and 22% of its total share of reserves. This hedging ensures that Pan Pacific will receive a minimum price of USD$50 per barrel for up to 719,000 barrels even if the oil price drops below that level on the relevant dates. The Company partly offset the cost of these put options by selling call options which may require the Company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil (approximately 8% of expected production in 2007/2008) at USD$92.00 if the price of oil rises above that price.
What part of hedging do you not understand??????????????????????????????? There is always a cost involved when you are hedging. The Company partly offset the cost of these put options by selling call options which may require the Company to deliver no more than 187,600 barrels of oil (approximately 8% of expected production in 2007/2008) at USD$92.00 if the price of oil rises above that price.
8% of the production has to be sold at $92 only and that is just part of the cost, The money spent on hedging half of your production at $50 is a complete waste if you ask me.
You said most of production...i think its neglible and definately not holding back the SP. We will see with the quarterly, and thanks to DIGGER the quarterly will show the current obligations of the calls. I would assume the options will be evenly distributed over the 3 years. First 6 months expired..second 6 months average price of around 110? Not a big deal in the scheme of things...
Options per month 187600/36 = ~ 5200 barrels. So about 173 barrels a day in a 30 day month. Is this most of their current 4200 barrels of oil share? I dont think so, depends what your definition is of most...also considering PPP would not be here in this current situation without the bankers agreements. I suppose they could have raised more cash to pay for the PUTS but it seems most were sick of the capital raisings. Also, at the time, shareholders would have agreed and thought "$92 oil...never...this is the easiest money we have ever made!.." and would be smiling anyway if it hit that price.
Cheers R.Sole, will be interesting to analyze. If people want to view it easier, copy and do a 'paste special' in excel by right clicking a cell. Then select 'unicode' and the list will appear much more freindly ;)
Where is 'DIGGER NOMINEES'? :)
Our particularly obnoxious newcomer (or pheonix arisen as has been speculated), Mr A R Sole has been kind enough to give us a shareholder list, sourced from IRESS.
The only people I know of who use, and can afford, IRESS are our dear friends at the Broking Houses. Its about 2 weeks old, which is as close as that report ever gets to realtime.
R., if I'm right, you should ask your compliance manager what the rules are about participating in forums, before Vince gives your URL to NZX Discipline, there's a good lad
Innaresting....
I retract my third paragraph and apologise to rsole for implying he would have such an association within that particular fraternity