Remember that Xero runs on Netsuite, not Xero. Perhaps Netsuite can't do all those things Xero can let alone do it beautifully?
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The "dark" traders seem to be battling away at around 1700 mark. Reasonable volume going through on no visible depth. Has been going on now for 2 and a bit days and has held. If the old adage of a rise after 3 days selling holds good I think this arvo or tomorrow could see the upswing.
The instant churn rate,
100- (100*(0.96 ^12))
But only if you use 96% for each month as the "average" of the figure, a moving average might be more realistic and account for possible seasonal differences.... end of year dissolving companies etc.
Glad we got that churn thing sorted! Meanwhile Chris Liddell putting his money where his seat is at $17.01
Sage is making a push for Oz:
http://www.digitalfirst.com/2014/11/...new-kid-block/
Not sure what my first thoughts are. Oz is a very crowded place. At least when it comes to cloud accounting. MYOB, Xero and Saasu have the most to loose. Yet, whoever goes to ground first will become a takeover candidate. Has Sage set its eyes on Xero the way Intuit did? Is Sage preparing for war with Intuit? Is Sage after MYOB after missing out in 2011? Three birds with one stone?
Fascinating to watch!
Sage is coming to defend Handisoft.
Handisoft (owned by Sage) makes practice management software which is used by up to 10,000 accounting practices in Australia. Their market share is taking a hit as many accountants are switching to Xero's free practice management suite. So in order to stop this exodus, Sage is going to push their cloud accounting software which will tightly integrate with software thousands of accountants still use (and pay for) to run their accounting practices.
So in other words, while Intuit came to Australia mostly to stick it up to Xero, Sage is coming to save their 10-20 million dollar business they already have in Australia so expect them to take this more seriously.
Australian market with cloud accounting is pretty crowded. Customer acquisition costs will likely go up for everyone involved.
Either DB is going bonkers or there is some major action going on for XRO shares
Boy,that was some major volume that went through at the closeing minutes
Isn't the global index changes effective today?
MSCI index change up as discussed a few weeks ago people.
Nothing to see here, move along! :)
MSCI changes, was expected.
What about listing on US stock exchange? Has it got anything to do with the big volume???
"Just a reminder that we'll be shutting down Xero Personal on 30 November 2014"
:t_down::mad ;:
Not much on the chart, if anything, that gives confidence between yesterday close $16.35 and $15.90.
Attachment 6555
Some interesting insider buying by US based board members at around the $17 mark. Always inspires confidence, something that's for sure been lacking recently as the SP continues its slow decline.
... And, just looked at their careers page. Payroll customer care positions available for US, UK and NZ. Start of 2015 looking pretty busy for the company.
Here's a link for all of us who are sort of evangelists too for XRO :) And compare the explanations with all the complaints on QBO with @QBCARES today for those who are on Twitter too. http://www.sleeter.com/blog/2014/12/...counting-firm/
Looks like something going on with this stock. Asx had a spike as well.
Large vol?
Ummm ... well umm, OK I give up. :scared:
Maybe you can see something positive?
Attachment 6563
What happened to your money flow Baa? Looks like it committed suicide!
Baa Baa... Which software did you use to produce those graphs? Re graph I think the first 15 mins of the opening tomorrow should give an indication where the SP is going to go. But if I have to pick one then I think it should jump a little.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indi...money_flow.php ... Twiggs Money Flow takes volume into account and on that day there was very high volume - from a moving average of 280k volume spiked to 5.8m on Nov 25th. That single volume event effectively renders the indicator useless however, I find it exceptionally useful most of the time, especially for short term trend breaks.
Hey Longy, you'll find a free download here http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free...e_download.php (Windows version only - [I use mine in a Parallels VM on Mac]). It will pick up free Yahoo daily data, though not until 10am the following day. For my purposes delayed daily data is fine. It's a good charting platform. I'm not sure if they have a live NZX feed for subscribers to access intra-day data.
Fridays spike close at $16.50 marked an otherwise down day, I don't think it's indicative of the mood. Currently the Bid is $16.25 Ask $16.55 ... so yes, it will be an interesting open.
Attachment 6565
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11369324
Bit of a Xero fan article in the herald this morning. Always nice to see. Lots of commentary around the possibilities that Xero has opened up. I would like to believe the Apple comparison, but we shall see....
Someone likes Xro and has been averaging down from $21.61 to a low of $15.84 to hold nearly 7 million shares currently:cool:
Why hello there FIDELITY!!! :D :D :D
In case anyone's interested...
http://www.thestreet.com/video/12976...-strategy.html
Is it meant to add some comfort knowing Fidelity is interested in XRO??? I think so.
Have a read of the article in the Herald today, Drury very bullish about Fidelity buying a 5.4% stake in the company as one of the worlds most sophisticated investors, he said other international funds also buying in currently. Well I'm looking forward to 2015 and beyond so have pulled down my average buy price to $22.80 from $42 in anticipation(No i didnt do it after reading this article but last friday) :cool:
Your strategy could work. I think Xero has more to win than to loose in this and the next quarter. The market might get excited to see a bump in US numbers, which may be nothing but a cosmetic effect from the Monchilla acquisition. Next quarter we'll see US tax season and a quoting facility kick in. Let's hope that it will help them do well. If it does go up, you could consider using a trailing stop-loss to protect your gains. Fingers crossed...
Remember that year end in the US is December so second half sales should always increase more than first half sales. You would have to be pretty pissed with your current software to change mid year.
400,000 customers announced.
They announced 250,000 customers at end of Jan 2014, so in 10 months they have added 150,000 which is 60%. By my calculations, assuming the same rate of new customers over the next 2 months, implies an annual increase of 72% for the 12 months to end Jan 2015. Not sure how this stacks up with estimates. Good to see some spin from Rod along the lines of the US being back on track, but no figures to back that up.
Bearing in mind you'd expect higher growth in Jan-March as it is the time of the year when many of their potential customers would change platforms in NZ, UK and the US. So maybe we're still looking at their anticipated 80% growth rate. Next year's reporting will be fascinating, particularly seeing the numbers broken down.
Its no longer the NZX darling.
" Millions of small businesses now connect in the Cloud on Xero "
This is also impressive as well..... Is this because each "Customer" has multiple clients using Xero ? I guess it would only be 5 clients per customer to be 2 Mil. ?
Fantastic news for XRO, 400k reported now, 250k in Feb and 12 months prior to that 125k. Heading toward 80% subs growth again.
Each business is one customer so they have 400k small businesses. They may have multiple staff working on each.
They may be talking the add-on software but I dont know how that would equate. EDIT: my guess is when they send out invoices from Xero in pdf format, those invoices can also be viewed online (with statements) and payment can be made on line too. So each customer of xeros customers is in that number (kind of like claiming you know Kevin Bacon because of seven degrees of separation)
Don't know why a lot of members still don't get a lot of the respected memebrs or experienced members with their track record have told everyone to never buy into a downtrend! Wait till the tide turns! Yeh you might now make as much, but you definitely won't lose out as much!!!!!
Especially with the current global markets, growth stocks are out of flavor, I'm sure everyone can see that, most growth stocks are in strong downtrends, whereas the dividend paying or blue chip stocks have been ever slowly steadily increasing day by day... and it isn't going to change anytime soon!!!
Shame the latest announcement coincided with a big down day on the NZX:cool: PS-Baller the Americans are a fickle bunch so can change quicker than you might imagine,you only have to look at their automotive market to see that.
Best way to limit losses are stop-losses. It's not a cyclical stock and waiting for the end of a downtrend for a bottle rocket could be tricky. In Xero's case it may actually be a recipe for disaster. What if the market reacts positively to Xero's performance for the wrong reasons?
There was some insider buying recently and US tax season may surprise. May give Couta a chance to exit without loss.
After that there is a chance that Xero will loose loyal partners in home markets to QBOA.
That's the plan Casino and I appreciate your opinion because you present a balanced viewpoint:cool:
Yeah I was thinking the announcement wasn't that good, although it's hard to judge the annual sales patterns for Xero when they only announce sales figures about 6 times per year.
It looks like they sell a lot more in Jan-Apr than at other times of the year and it also looks like sales depend on when the tax year falls in various countries.
The last figures they announced were for 30 Sept which was 371,000. That gives 7.8% growth in 71 days which projects to 47% annual growth. Not impressed by that but it's hard to draw a trend from a short period of time that may not be indicative of the full year.
it would be good if they gave regular quarterly numbers. That way we could model seasonally adjusted growth as some quarters should be better than others. I would expect the December quarter to be the worst (actually the 3 months to the end of November to be the worst) due to where year ends fall.
400k customers is an impressive milestone that's worth shouting about regardless of the timing, growth rates etc. Let's not get sucked in the negative sentiment and congratulate a NZ company that's making amazing progress towards a target that none of us would have dreamt possible a few years back.
I guess your viewpoint on XRO will be influenced by the level of your entry point into the stock - mine was at $6.20 and I was nervous then. I bought as a long term holder so my profit is still on paper - as are the losses for those who bought above $16. If you bought as a speculator then unfortunately you're going to have to learn the value of patience.
Well said Pierre. I got sucked in big time when it was at its very low 0.74 - 0.96 and unlucky not to have sold everything I had when it was at its zenith. Having tasted the joy of what you can gain with this stock, I don't even worry now whether less thatn 80% gain on customers is a bad thing. Come for the ride guys as this stock will really go places. With its IPO looming and that Fedelity Fund buying, how can you lose? :D:t_up:
I doubt they will are planning to be profitable before they hit 1 million customers. After that, I think it's likely. So I'd be saying that their first profit should be FY2017, although it could even be H1 2017.
That's still 2½ years away (with 1 million customers happening within two years from today). A lot can happen in that time.
Most of their money at the moment is going on acquiring customers, at some point income should exceed that. Although maybe they will take the Amazon route and plough any potential profit into further growth.
Just think of SKT - unprofitable for years while they invested in accumulating customers. When the tipping point is reached the dollars will absolutely roll in.
But when - who knows? It just requires confidence that they're on the right path and that when they reach the tipping point it will be in the right direction. I'm backing Rod to get there.
Possible insight into how USA is tracking? 90% growth rate scribbled down here:
http://static.ow.ly/docs/Xero%20Upda...12-10_2NJD.pdf
I think Pierre's move was well timed. I see xro settling to between $9 $11 for some time.
I don't have it in a spreadsheet but if I remember correctly, they averaged 10k new customers per month same time last year. It was their weakest period and this year it's up to 12.5k. This year most of the growth came from Australia and August/September period was particularly strong with 18k new customers per month.
Share price about what it was 18 months ago (June 2013)
Nothing untoward has happened in that time - Xero relentlessly marching on to its first million customers and developing new things along the way. All going to plan
Just shows that $15/$16 is about fair value I reckon and if people are using a 15% discount rate in the DCFs then 15% a year increase in the shareprice can be excpected. Maybe $20 in 2017 still fair value
Charts ain't looking too healthy again. Retest of $15.00 looks ready to go ahead tomorrow.
Merry Xmas for shorters eh?
I'm not entirely convinced about that. I don't think it has found its floor yet.
I was optimistic a couple of weeks ago and have been considering accumulating a few more XRO but I don't think it has finished dropping. If you look at a graph of the share price, it has been dropping pretty much constantly since March when it was $44 and hasn't really shown any convincing signs of stopping just yet.
Dropping over 1% on a day that the DOW has bounced big time ,certainly supports your view MBC.--It certainly has'nt given much reason for optimism yet--Its one ugly chart atm
Not for those that are holding:scared:
If you flip a chart, sometimes it's helpful - to figure out what you'd do, relative to your situation. The upside down closing price log chart shows a very strong trend of increasing angle, i.e. one side is in control and their strength is growing. In this situation you might be thinking:
inverted
Attachment 6612
1. dust off the dry powder, it could break-up through that horizontal resistance, and bolt.
and
2. finger on the trigger, it could break-down at resistance, and fold.
So now just reverse your logic and see how it works for the rightside up chart.
normal (or reality, whichever you prefer)
Attachment 6613
1. dust off the dry powder, it could break-up at support and bolt!
and
2. finger on the trigger, it could break-down through that horizontal resistance, and fold.
:cool:
Part of my point is to have a plan either way, the other thing is that a fresh perspective can be illuminating, at times. There is no doubt that $15 is an important price point, just have a plan either way - up or down.
I also think this chart shows that waiting for MACD's and 50/200 trendlines to confirm, or even give confidence of a trend, especially a reversal from down to up (the staircase to the elevator), would probably leave a lot of value on the table with a stock like XRO, as the price bolts up like it did in the previous run-up. I agree though that it's prudent to look for some confirmation, though I'd use faster indicators, like Willams%R, MoneyFlow, RSI maybe, and a tighter MA's looking for the price to cross it, like a 14 or 21 EMA for instance.
In any event, it's been a while since we've seen some action on XRO.
Interesting perspective there baabaa
Your top chart ..... I wouldn't be selling that stock as the uptrend looks pretty good eh
A bit of cleaning house from XRO. Something had to give.
It looks like they are not happy and are taking action.
Not sure if this is correlated but I prefer to see lots of Rod in the media as it gives me confidence that things are good. When he disappears there must be some serious butt kicking going on behind the scenes.
I am having trouble getting the latest exec team. Anyone know the link so I can take a look?
How can I short sell this stock? It's going below $10
Nah I'm serious, is there anyway I can short sell this stock? Do you know of any means?
What does a chief revenue officer even do?
Personally I'm not really a big fan of C-level titles but it seems to be a requirement for modern companies.