fph still just in that big sideways channel 27 - 37, think i said on the fph thread good for trading the range till it breaks. buying in the middle of these ranges on any stock just means you get whipped back and forth as it gyrates in the range
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Super Saturday vax day coming. PM talking about containing now. Looking good for opening up and living with it.
Will be a lot of retail therapy once the shops are open. Big christmas as well. Still no overseas holidays.
Increasing mortgage rates wont hurt too much until refixing in the 3s happen.
Little with Hosking making it clear that business is a major consideration along with trying to protect the economy and mental health.
Cash is king right at the minute in my opinion. Nibbled on a few OCA late last week and am now quite content to enjoy a nice rest in my kennel :)
Just need to let some water flow under the bridge and see how much damage this storm inflicts. My nose for a feed is not registering anything worth hunting right at the minute. Sometimes its best just to have a good long nap.
Three Chiefs or high ranking leaders leaving recently after a couple of leaders left earlier in the year must put at risk the sustainability of the efficiency / margin improvements
Maintaining project momentum is always the difficult part …many fail to do so …..and consistency of performance is not in WHS DNA
Depends how much DNA is transferred into the software platforms. HLG is over time increasing that strength and WHS should have started that some time ago as well. Although bringing together those platform can be difficult if they all operate on different solutions.
They might simple have been people who arnt suited to the new directions that technology is taking. A young generation of Tech Savy managers are what's required to drive that in the future.
Tech roles can be very demanding and 10 years in any company is a long time these days.
shops need to open and is peters right? Is it name and shame time because the cost is high.
WHS if it can open across the country within 2 weeks will be able to pay up.
All waka too retail opening this coming weekend...
DIV looks to be on!
a Partial win call by winner() , one more week auckland level 3.
Then open level 2.5 ?
AKL shops closed another week ……won’t make too much difference
Will put winners prediction into the solutions events folder.
Portfolio.NZX.Stockid.CurrentPrice(500) . OrderAction="SELL"
BNZ guy says.
“The prospect of ‘endemic’ covid-19 in New Zealand may mean a less vigorous post-lockdown rebound in spending than that seen after the original lockdown last year”.
Retail in NZ going to it tough next twelve months compared to last year
I always find these prognosticators hilarious - as if kiwis are simply going to not spend their rapidly swelling discretionary income balances.
“Honey, we can’t buy that new big screen tv and that new smartphone and couch you wanted because there are some Covid infections around.” Said no one ever.
Also almost every developed country where Covid is endemic is seeing similar retail figures year on year
Lets wait and see if the public are going to stay at home over the next 6 months.
If your really worried take a N95, NK95 mask and put a surgical one over the top.
Take your liquid spray soap with you..
Lets see if the sirens start up at the weekend as they race about in their 4 wheel drives utes.
The longer the lock downs the the more the human brains wants to compensate.
Id say dont get in the way!
The pent up demand for travel is going to be huge the longer some people are locked up.
Covid solution with some tough love 'kick the non-vaccinated out of ICU' making room for more urgent cases that are not self inflicted. As an ex-employer I would not be interested in hiring let alone paying sick leave for non-vaccinated Covid related people. Losing key staff during heavy indent schedules means cancelled orders and been labeled an unreliable supplier for non delivery leaving some serious consequences for businesses.
Message is clear tolerance for these clowns is wearing thin.
Stand corrected. Read in the herald where Dr Blowfeld or doctors hinted the step system was confusing and some other system was now preferred.
Need a printed guide to carry about or a digital assistant to check that one is in compliance.
Anyway one thing might be certain and that is if the weather is fine this weekend a lot of people in L2 will be out and about consuming.
And thats the main thing?
Oh no the price is going up.. what happened to 3.50 on fears of inflation, high petrol prices, high housing costs, higher clothing ect, ect..
someone pore more cold water in the faces of the retail investor...
stop stop please..start the day over come on this is a joke.
There is a crisis out there people, crisis.:confused:
looks like pretty normal vols for WHS .
oil shock coming though.
if not happy with this investment use hatch and buy the US home builders.
Low vol
4.06! ... honestly must be shaz in wellington.. could be Shaz in Auckland. Or is it retail Aus..
shaz traders whip sawing the stock price...:ohmy:
w(n);
Var("WHSQty")
WHSQty = Winner.Portfolios.NZX.StockId("WHS").QtyOnhand();
Displayvar("WHSQty") ;
0.00
" ST legends"
calls made on spread of virus which can happen any time. Prudent calls to protect capital.
If limited spread xmas rally.
Any bets on 4.30 or over by ex DIV date.
Retail Card Spend Sept ……Westpac comment
Retail spending remained weak in September despite the move down to Alert Level 2 in most parts of the country.
Spending only increased by 0.9% in September. That followed a roughly 20% drop last month when Alert Level restrictions were reimposed nationwide.
We had expected a recovery in spending due to the easing in the Alert Level outside of Auckland. However, it appears that activity restrictions are still having a significant dampening impact on spending.
That’s the past …the future is a lot brighter
Is it really ? I suspect you would feel differently if you had lived through the seemingly endless covid prison sentence we've had in Auckland.
I reckon those facts speak for themselves and when Auckland is eventually allowed out of level 3 restrictions you'll get the same result as what's being experienced in the rest of the country now.
Interest rates headed up so less money for discretionary spending, fuel prices at record ever level's, supply chain issues forcing prices up and little discounting....there's not a lot to be cheerful about and especially in the context of the very strong share price gains already experienced. Strong recovery already baked in ?, you folks be the judge...but what if it doesn't happen ?
Well there you have it folks!
No spread south reported today on the Cindy and Dr Blowfeld show!
It could take a move to level 1.5 in auckland in december for the consumer to make a late rush for the goodies.
The Beagle has got his fill for xmas already and is resting up for the next hunt.
But the dividend is still out there and its a whooper if your buy price is right.
Updated:
creeping momentum on the buy side after the Blowfled and Cindy show.
With higher interest rates coming next year where are you going to shop for a Bargain?
4.08!!!!!!
Higher interest rates are being offset by big pay rises in a very tight labour market.
Maybe some WHS shoppers don't have mortgages to worry about?
WHS having a good day today. Market looking forwards. To the grand re-opening and strong WHS fundamentals of growing margins, store rationalization etc
Ok WinnerGrinner.
perhaps its QtyOnHand > 0;
Net Div on OCA again?:cool:
"Sharetrader legends"- (Sell out at 4, forgoing a massive dividend)
Share price- (Recover in 24 hours)
Its early days...don't count your chickens until they come home to roost, BTW My average sale price was $4.11.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126...2+October+2021
WHS should not be greedy next year and give its loyal customers a Bargain.
Mr B knows that higher interest rates mean banks are going to love it.
But local banks are going to be required to carry bigger reserves while Aussi banks will be buy back babies.
Aus tourist stocks will start to recover strongly in 2022,2023 - 2025.
There's a rule of thumb in retail that once petrol goes over 235 retail sales tend to slow down.
Aucklanders don't care just now as they not buying much petrol but once things get back to endemic covid normality it'll start to hurt
Retail spend on fuel in normal times has been about $9 billion / $10 billion annually -- so has fuel 15% higher than usual thats more than $1billion less for households to spend
"Dr Blowfeld "
just kidding... no relation to Blofeld.
as for denting wallets thats why they will shop for Bargain at WHS.
it not Harrods!!!!
If they cant afford WHS then lets open some ops shops! because they wont be able to afford HLG either.
Was surprised to read this in that article "According to PriceWatch, the average price for petrol across the country was $2.599 a litre, on Monday".
Gull up the road from me has 91 for $2.33...better fill up while the going is good :eek2:
$2.60 is seriously steep...surely the dearest its ever been !! Better dust off those EV brochures. Free road user charges till at least Match 2024 and more than $8,000 subsidy while the going is good. No wonder Iceman has dived into a new Tesla Model 3.
People will be shopping at the $2 shop if fuel gets any more expensive :eek2:
Yes !! Having a really good test ride on a friends one in the next few weeks. Really looking forward to it. Thanks for the invite whome.
In the meantime I've really been enjoying getting back into regular walking. A slightly less fat and slightly fitter Beagle is a much happier and less stressed dog :)
Every time petrol hits a new high expected travel might mean weekend trips are reduced. But local travel will remain.
Its the longer surf trips and trips for no purpose..
Lets see if people slow and down accidents are reduced and traffic tickets issued numbers.
Higher end items at Harvey Norman but WHS doesnt sell European kitchens or German cars.
Its pretty basic stuff and its not a forecast recession.
Some people have started wagging their tails and thinking the dog's made a bad call but the wily old mutt switched on his super long range sniffer and smells trouble ahead so keeps trimming down and investing in his new favorite asset class called CASH.
I really hope I am wrong but I think there's trouble ahead and I'm not the only one https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...edgdhp&pc=U531
If it goes that high it will leak everywhere thanks to the ugly underbelly of society that really don't give a stuff about anyone but themselves.
I should probably share my food delivery experiment with WHS during level 4. $160 of pantry items arrived on 5 different courier deliveries over 5 working days in 9 different boxes from all corners of the North Island including one separate courier delivery of 2 cans of fruit salad from down the country somewhere. How on earth they can make money by separately packaging and sending 2 x $1.59 cans of fruit salad is anyone's guess ? Yes everything arrived in 5 working days but yes it was an absolute dog's breakfast in more ways than one lol.
I think from memory there were 13 different emails updating me at different parts of the fractured delivery process. Never again..the amount of administration, drama, packaging and handling for $160 of food was mind boggling.
Agree its not the perfect outlook for retail in 2022.
WinnerGrinners 500 by xmas would be very surprising indeed.
Why am I so down ? The reality for the Auckland region is its been an incredibly tough year. A year unlike any other. This paywalled article sums it up quite well. A full 20 weeks of lockdowns for the wider Auckland region this year and counting and what's worse, there's no end in sight. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
Excerpts "If Auckland takes the full eight weeks to work its way through the Government's "three-step plan" for alert level 3, 1.6 million Kiwis will have endured one of the world's most stringent lockdowns for more than half a year. Seven-and-a-half weeks at levels 3 and 4 in March and April last year. Further periods at level 3 in August 2020 and then again in February and March this year. And then levels 3 and 4 since 18 August. Twenty weeks so far, with no end in sight".
"New Zealand entered the pandemic with only a third of the OECD-average number of intensive care beds per capita. Unlike other countries, the Government has done nothing over the last 18 months to increase ICU capacity. In contrast, since the onset of the pandemic, New South Wales has increased ICU capacity from about 600 beds to 1550". This is abject failure of the Ardern Govt and a complete and utter betrayal of the exceptionally hard work Aucklanders have put in.
More "lite" reading:- Auckland business's feel abandoned and ignored https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PZXBEKVSNXIHA/
Even more reading:- Level 2 in Auckland looking increasingly distant https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...7KOLWRXOWTA6Q/
Attachment 13084
Will try the Fruit Salad !
Well imagine what it was like in the blitz. But at least they could go down to the local for a pint if it was still open!
Update on the technicals from my perspective:
Many of you have probably been quite concerned with the recent pullback, however when you look at the big picture (monthly chart) there are zero red flags. We have had a confirmed monthly bull flag confirm, so the odds favour continuation of this.
When we zoom in to a weekly chart again we see no red flags i.e. weekly uptrend intact and EMA12 holding.
So what the hell happened with the drop from $4.25??? Essentially we had a longer term breakout (monthly) occur when daily RSI was already at/near overbought levels (you can think of a high RSI meaning 'who is still left to buy?'). This significantly increases the chance of a throwback occurring (all things equal throwbacks occur around 50% of the time). This is exactly what has occurred with a retest of that resistance at $3.90 (now acting as support). Ultimately this is bullish by confirming the breakout above that level.
Looking forwards, on the daily chart we retraced over 50% of the rise so it is unlikely we will rise straight to previous highs unless we at a minimum get a daily trend change. However I think it's likely there'll be more work to do before we get back to those highs (things got much tougher after the placement - a lot of shares out there sitting on 20% gains). Personally I'll be watching for a pullback from $4.10ish for another swing entry.
Disc: hold long term position and actively trading.
Attachment 13085
Attachment 13086
Attachment 13087
Notice the price trend after April 2021.
the stochastic 14 is not really a reliable indicator of over bought or over sold.
But the chart is still in an upward trend.
The impact of higher interest rates and higher CPI may well impact retail profits.
Outbreaks of the virus are also a reason to protect capital.
Interest rate rises will trigger a rotation into bank stocks away from growth stocks and stock that are cyclical.
Kiwibank economists are reporting that the spending bounce back after this year's lockdown has been less sharp than it was a year ago.
Anecdotally, we’ve heard of retailers limiting their stock to just a handful of brands, and holding onto more inventory than usual. The business model has shifted form Just in Time to Just in Case. So don’t be surprised if you get the same Christmas presents as everyone else this year.
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...print-and-more
Hosking has roasted dear young Mr Hipkins this morning.
Mr B has gone to cash and its a prudent move.
The R number is still going up.
There is no firm date in place for Auckland but level 2 likely for Waka Too and possible Northland in 2 weeks time if no spread.
Auckland is another matter.
Support for hospitality, catering and retail sector needs to be top of list this week from the minister.
Cant see 5 dollars by xmas.
If the number explode in auckland then level 4 will be the only option left as the unvaccinated numbers are still too high.
Would not be surprised to see a tighter border set up.
IMF is forecasting over 5 percent global growth.
No global recession forecast and no recession forecast for NZ.
Christmas joy from Tom
I’m not at all predicting $5 for WHS anytime soon. I’m in the more realistic middle-of-the-road camp that thinks both the Uber-bears and Uber-bulls are both being unrealistic to varying degrees.
I think the dividend will be paid as announced. I think retail in Auckland will be open very soon as it’s due to open in the next “Alert Level 3 - Step 2” phase of the reopening plan, which I think happens not long after Auckland hits 90% first dose/75% 2nd dose, so in about 2-3 weeks.
I think it also goes without question that WHS 1st half year revenue will be down year-on-year, with a big drop in the first quarter (Aug-Oct), followed by a healthy 2nd quarter (Nov-Jan). 2nd half year performance will be fine, and will be accompanied by NZX50 index inclusion.
" NZX50 index inclusion"
wunderbar!
Why I sold...have a think about these two different situations.
Situation A just on 2 1/2 months ago.
We were the envy of the world with level 1 freedoms and safety anyone else in the world could only dream of.
WHS were on track to easily beat net profit after tax of $160m, with many expecting $170m plus.
Customers were spending freely, all shops were open and interest rates were ultra low.
Situation B - The current situation
The halo has well and truly slipped and its been exposed that Cindy's kindergarten have done nothing to improve upon our woefully inadequate level of ICU hospital beds despite having 18 months to improve the situation leaving the only effective tool in the kit to encourage everyone to vaccinate and lockdown endlessly because to do anything else will overrun the health system
The wider Auckland region, about one third of the entire population has been in one serious level of lockdown or another for more than 20 weeks and there's no sure end in sight
Its been reported that more than 13,000 business's shut permanently in September and many thousands are on the dole queue
Sales year to date have slipped 22% and analysts have downgraded the current year outlook to around $125m a significant (approx $50m) reduction from FY21.
We are on a knife edge of whether this Delta variant will explode throughout the country or not.
Okay so contrasting the above two situations.
If you did a "blind test" and had no share price history which of these situations would you say warranted a share price of ~ $3.30 and which warranted a share price of ~ $4.10 ?
I would suggest the risks and rewards of these two situations and their respective share price points are very, very different. One was a compelling buy and the other is a risky hold, (at best).
If WHS is a sell then HLG must be a sell. But HLG is a hold for Master Beagle. Confused :confused:
Maybe a hold whilst selling down then becomes a sell like WHS :scared:
Beagle if you plug in $125m FY22 profit into your DCA it changes the SP by how much? Bugger all i reckon
With increasing vaccination rates retail country wide will be open within a month, irrespective of what covid is doing. Rest of the world has managed to move on and so will we. Services sector will be most impacted.
The current $125 million NPAT you quote above for current financial year is a PE multiple of just 11x. Safe buying in my books, especially when that includes the current lockdown impacted sales environment.
Current Auckland lockdown has only been 7-8 weeks. Not sure what relevance there is to people lumping in 12 or 13 other lockdown weeks from the last two financial years with the current situation. maybe I’m missing the point there.
im not 100% supportive of the government actions either, my biggest gripe is they should have ASAP starting in June last year commenced building a purpose built very large quarantine center with dedicated hospital in an isolated area (Ohakea air base would have been perfect), rather than continuing MIQ in population centers for the last 18 months.
"7-8 weeks"
it hardly the blitz. Not yet anyway but the R number is lurking.
HLG has auss as it revenue base.
WHS is connected to auckland.
MR B's call is perfectly understandable.
its such a fab day in the Waka Too we are all listening to a some Nena and dreaming of Nordic summers.
a popular topic for media to talk about at present (supply struggles for retailers!) but both Briscoes Group and Warehouse group say they have built larger than normal inventories for the Xmas season.
Possibly a situation where the largest retailers are going to benefit the most while the smaller retail firms without the same supply chains end up losing out.
Would only drop in line with profit if it was the new normal.
If it was one off impact due to covid lockdowns the market would look past that, wouldnt it?
As mentioned by JohnnyTheHorse the rest of the world lives with it. The lockdowns here will end soon believe it or not.
I did the math recently but not sure I saved the data, but the vast majority of WHS stores are outside the Auckland region (over two thirds). Stores are basically distributed with population. And Auckland is of course still served (even in lockdown) by online and click&collect.
So just to clarify. Over the last few months we've seen WHS go from $3.30 to $4.10 a 24% rise and HLG go from ~ $7.40 to ~$7 a 5.5% decline.
Which do you think is the more logical move in the circumstances ?
Some other things that are very much on the forefront of my mind.
WHS year to date sales are down 22% and HLG only down 18-19%, (sorry I forget which) and HLG taking Govt Covid support on both sides of the Tasman and WHS directors making expensive ESG's calls on shareholders behalf and not taking Covid support and burning lots of cash as a result.
Australia is opening up a lot sooner than N.Z and HLG have strong operations there and WHS do not.
HLG's online sales are a much higher proportion of their total sales than WHS and HLG online systems vastly are better than WHS.
Glassons Au growth is going absolutely gangbusters even with extensive lockdown's in Victoria and NSW ! How much faster will they grow when the Australian economy open's up !!
I cringed big time when Nick said 'I'm not concerned about Christmas' ....... (stock etc) .......statements like that often setting one up for a big fail.
A bit like Herbison of Plexure fame big comment 'we are covid recession proof' - good call eh
Nick was a bit more realistic when he commented at the same time a bigger concern was the potential for lockdowns going into the Christmas period. He said the retailer would be hit if it couldn’t open its stores and had to rely on online-only sales, despite the growth in this sales channel.
Not sure Australia can really be said to be opening retail quicker. Level 3 phase 2 could come in as soon as next week for Auckland, which would see NZ retail 100% back open.
Meanwhile the rest of NZ (67% of population) only had retail closed for 3 weeks total since August 1st (Aug 17th to Sep 7th), with the blip of a week in Waikato which should be back open by weekend.
Across the ditch 60% of Australias population (NSW & VIC) has seen retail closed for months, with NSW finally reopening just this week.
I'm a value investor mate. I buy and hold value stocks that represent value for the opportunities, growth and risks that are readily apparent. When the situation changes I adapt. Never get emotionally attached to any company, it will cloud your judgement as sure as night follows day.
Agree that WHS is well distributed. Stewart Island?
So Beagle has sold, can we now expect a string of Warehouse negative posts from the old hound?
Whos going to double first.
WHS or MHJ.
Wheres the retail money going to go.
Got to favour MHJ.
MHJ smashing both WHS and OCA on orders already today.
OCA is like whatching paint dry...
Rents (for new tenancies) up nearly 8% from a year ago (largest increase in years) ....existing tenancies up 3% and trending up
That'll cut household spend a bit
really like MHJ - have already opined on this thread a couple of times that they would be on WHS acquisition list if they were just a NZ operation (especially since WHS closed its in-store red shed jewelry counters recently.)
nice to see that there profits were up strongly despite all the store closures.
Does it?
I remember there is some correlation with the colour of government ... red government and red sheds as well as Noel Leeming (colour red as well) do well. Torpedo seven is not red, but should in my view do well given that they have stock and people will need gifts this Christmas season. Only the blue Warehouse stationary does not do well in red times, but admittedly they don't do well in blue times either :):
Here you have my investment by colours theory :p;
But doesn't matter - I think I leave the barking to others and review my holding after the WHS brought in their next just amazing Christmas sale. Don't like to sell my show ponies before their big performance ... ;) ;
Yes well no Show ponies in the south island this year as the big AMP show was cancelled. Next Year!
Yes better order a few items from WHS..
JBL is already out of stock for some of there stuff.. web site has SOLD OUT.
Also Looking for curved display for super wide graphics support.
Run out of multi window extended display mode space.
End of the day MR B is still in the money.
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post917296
A link to the Harmoney thread who have reported massive growth esp in Aussie lending wondering if this is where the retail spend is coming from?
(so possibly more rel to HLG, but still....)
... just noticed - analyst consensus on marketscreener went up this week from $3.83 to $4.45.
Lucky that analysts don't seem to read this thread :);
Posted 6 October - 9 days ago, be a good chap and try and keep up :p
They say a week is a long time in politics well its also a long time in retail. In that space of time we've gone from having a reasonable degree of hope Delta could be eliminated in the Auckland region to no hope whatsoever so I would argue the risks have changed materially. Australia opening up a lot sooner and some other retailers have very fast growing operations there ;)
So hard to keep up ... you mean the analysts are just too slow to read this thread?
I realise that our Covid fear did increase only recently ... but still think we might overemphasize its impact on retail (not on the infection rate and on the death rate under the vulnerable population, I am concerned about the latter).
Lets face it - retail did neither crash in Brazil, nor in the US nor in the UK ... and boy - they all know what difference a full Delta sweep makes. Despite all the efforts of our anti vaxxers - NZ just has no chance to get Covid-wise into such a bad shape as these three countries (and many more) have been.
To be honest, I think you might overrate Covids impact on retail a bit ... the time of tough lockdowns is over, we just let the vulnerable who choose not to take the jab die and can keep our shops open.
But hey - at the end we both don't know how delta will impact on our retail environment under the special NZ circumstances - so, lets just agree to disagree, shall we?
Power cuts affecting Chinese cities will have an impact on supply chain inventory .......
but china has already relented.
and opened the coal gates.
Paywalled
China’s coalmines ordered to go full throttle (theaustralian.com.au)