If you believe what xafalcon has to say then the answer to your question is obvious otherwise time to start your own research.
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Fleeting reference about a boycott on A2 milk in the Fonterra article
http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/...e#/906dbcae/26
Equally fleeting references including A2 in the 'alright to buy' list
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/...ry-milked-dry/
http://www.mamamia.com.au/dairy-you-...alian-farmers/
You'd think A2 would do well from people being more discerning about buying milk to support farmers, as they pay a premium compared to the larger companies.
Bit of green starting to appear, at long last, or is it another DCB?:confused:
Somethings going on , millions on both sides of depth.
Bit of a downtrend forming here, MA lines have looked a bit poor past week or so, get out while you can? Probably just a speed bump for long termers
when is the next profit ann due, do we have a very leaky boat here ?
IMHO - I believe result will be as forecast a few months ago but F17 will be softer due to IF sales slowing in China and Ozzie (grey channel sales). I off loaded on Friday as sentiment is driving the SP down. I'm planning on sitting tight for a few weeks and getting back in when it has been oversold...
Probably all those Hot Chopper holders getting depressed after all the euphoria, now selling out.
Any takers there for 1.40? Looks tempting:).
Big pre-market trades mostly international...
5 4 9:44:22 am 140.5 8,546,124 $12,007,304 International 6 3 9:26:15 am 140.9 250,000 $352,250 International 7 2 9:06:58 am 140.3 733,647 $1,029,307 International 8 1 9:06:56 am 143.9 831,167 $1,196,049 International
Could this be a pump and dump scenario?
Sourced from HC...
"a2 Milk Company Ltd (Australia) (ASX: A2M)
Leading stockbroker and financial services provider Bell Potter initiated coverage on a2 Milk today with a buy rating and placed a $1.81 price target on its shares. With the shares closing yesterday at $1.31, this price target implied upside of a massive 38% for investors. The market has reacted well to the news, with the shares up by around 6% in early trade."
Those quoted prices are in AUD by the way...
https://nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/283830
Inclusion into ASX 200 from close of trade 17th June, expect some large activity between now and then.
So, will they be doing an Aussie ipo then? Where are the shares that are gonna get traded in the asx gonna come from?
Hi all..I just want to share a story from one of a2 milk customer today.
Like usual, every weekend I go and pick up a2 milk at countdown. There were only 3 bottles left on the shelf. A mature lady followed behind me. Me and her started a conversation regarding a2 milk. I told her why I bought a2 milk instead of normal milk as my wife has a digestive issues. So her and her husband, as she said when u getting old, the digestion system is getting worn out and a2 milk is very helpful.
She told me about her fantastic experience related with a2 milk. The lady always does a regular dentist check up. She told me that her teeth always built up with lot of tartar and she always scared as her dentist would clean it up hard out since she did not like the sound of the machine.
Anyhow, on her last visit, her dentist told her that her tartar was less than normal and not built up like usual. Her dentist got confused as she has been a regular patient but this time there was a significant change. Her gum and teeth look very healthy and cleaner.
Her dentist told her the news and asked her about her diet. What did actually she eat? She told the dentist she has changed nothing...normal diet just like normal..nothing really. The lady did reflect and wonder, the only thing she changed in her diet so far is the milk. She has been drinking a2 milk for almost a year....and she wondered a2 milk helps to prevent it....
Does anyone experience any other health benefits since drinking a2 milk a part of digestive issues?
Very interesting to hear that....a2 milk will become people choice now...
Hmmn.. So they bought some just recently,and would like to get it back up to the price it was hovering at for quite some time,so they can offload?
Funny how they come up with a price that was the consensus of private investors a few weeks ago,so that would suggest that most private investors/traders are better at valuing this company than they are,as the privates came up with this price around Dec. 15
I have only used A2 milk on a handful occasions. When Countdown don't seem to hold too much of them as often it ran out when I went there. I went there just for the milk as Pak and Save don't have them.
I like it better than other milk. I like to taste of it in my tea or coffee. It could be all in my head and I felt it more settle in my tummy afterward.
Two big funds Challenger and Greencape have increased their holding big time in time for a possible market update and FY results.
Maybe worth an email to management? Perhaps another factor to be considered in future studies?
The apocalypse nears as the devil in the A1 milk emerges in multiple forms! Cognitive impairment, inflammation, medically diagnosed lactose intolerant people able to consume a2 - very excited about this companies future. Topped up at 1.51 - then got a bit sketched out at 1.40 but should have got another parcel!
Full year forecast revised upward
Group revenue is now forecast to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million and Group Operating EBITDA in the range of $52 million to $54 million for the 2016 financial year .
https://www.nzx.com/companies/ATM/announcements/284057
I am like]ing the forecast...Estimating about 10% increase in EBITDA for 2016 FY.
Group revenue is
now forecast to be in the range of $350 million to $360 million and Group
Operating EBITDA in the range of $52 million to $54 million for the 2016
financial year .
A2M was up yesterday on ASX while ATM dropped on NZX... Wasn't that interesting?
Anyhow... let see if it breaks $1.90?
Loving it...just to refresh the numbers from last upgrade....
Revenue to be $300 to $315 Mln and EBITDA of $33 to $37 Mln from last upgrade...
Revenue to be $350 to $360 Mln and EBITDA of $52 to $54 Mln from today's upgrade!!!
And if you know them well enough they always under promise and over deliver. Based on this I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are tab higher come actual results announcement time in August...
Remember they hit 2.61 in February. Sold mine at 2.52. Back in though.
Great news today for holders. Confirms ATM's potential as a diversified dairy company with a credible point of difference and well established in several key markets including Australia, UK and China. Whoopee!
I agree with the 'credible point of difference', but disagree strongly with the rest of Left Fields post.
A2 is not diversified at all, and relies on a single product output: A2 milk. It is the least diversified company possible, as if A2 suddenly becomes 'bad science' then the whole company becomes worthless. Note that I am not suggesting that A2 actually will be found wanting. Only pointing out that if this happened, the 'all in one milk bucket strategy' -the opposite of diversification- means the company would collapse.
A2 is well established only in Australia, and the Australian performance looks like it is being propped up with sales of 'Australian A2 infant milk formula' to China.
The update was on A2 favourably navigating their way through the evolving import restrictions into China. But there was no mention made of the UK and USA. These are clearly a best still in the development phase or at worst in deep trouble.
IMO despite the progress, they have not nearly justified their share price to date and at any price starting with $1 remain grossly overvalued by any fundamental measure you care to name.
SNOOPY
Market update advises anticipating having $50million cash in hand at end FY16. Any chance some of this will be dispersed as dividends? if they gave $30million back as a dividend that would be roughly 4c per share?
Ooh, SNOOPY down on ATM again, time to top up? :-)
130% revenue growth this year on last. Currently selling $430m worth of product annualised. Most definitely cash flow positive, but unlikely to return dividends (and I don't think they should) as cash could be used for growth in the US/UK. A modest 20% increase in sales on what they are currently selling would make ATM a $560m revenue company, easily achievable in my books given the ramp up on their supply side and seemingly endless growth in China (plus any results from a massive marketing campaign). Could be $500m plus and $80-100m in earnings with those numbers, 12-15c EPS with more future growth. The science is looking more solid every year, the release of the upcoming large Chinese study should be a watershed moment as well.
Really don't mind holding long term, billion dollar company by end of the decade is my pick.
Hi Snoopy, I appreciate your comments, and just wanted to point out that the term 'diversified' can relate to more than just products. A2 is Internationally diversified, it is not merely reliant on the NZ and/or Aust market. It is also well diversified in terms of product supply and distribution.
In terms of diversified products it is very wise to concentrate initially on raw milk and infant milk formula however, when appropriate it can further diversify into products such as yoghurt, dairy food snacks, cheese and ice-cream etc. (I understand ice-cream has been tested in the Aus market, but personally wonder about this as it sends mixed marketing messages. IMHO Yoghurt would be much smarter.)
That said, I agree it is early days for this company, and much needs to be achieved, but I am very happy to hold a small amount of ATM in my portfolio.
I had second thoughts on what I posted along these lines mfd, so thank you for raising the 'science' point. There are many on this thread who hang on tenderhooks as the scientific trials get rolled out. Favourable scientific trials I see more as a perpetual 'push forward' that will ultimately improve the credibility and hopefully sales of the company. But I see A2 more as a 'marketing company', and to generalize they are top notch marketers.
Being a top notch marketer is no guarantee of success in all markets. They have proved themselves in Australia but not in New Zealand. And once they really start to push in the US, they will be up against all sorts of top notch marketers in the traditional home of top notch marketing. So there are no guarantees.
But I do think that it is probably more important, short to medium term, to get the marketing right ahead of getting the science right.
SNOOPY
ATM are diversified in terms of having more than one farm supplying A2, sure. But I think they would still be vulnerable to regional disease risk.
ATM is entirely reliant on the Australian/Chinese (not sure it is possible to separate the two) market, as other markets are not profitable. Not unexpected at this part of the business development, but definitely a funding engine with all its eggs in one basket nevertheless.
All the above rely on the A2 brand and associated A2 benefits though. Using A2 milk in value added products is a good strategy, but none of these products would stand up without the A2 milk brand behind them. So not really diversification in my eyes.Quote:
In terms of diversified products it is very wise to concentrate initially on raw milk and infant milk formula however, when appropriate it can further diversify into products such as yoghurt, dairy food snacks, cheese and ice-cream etc. (I understand ice-cream has been tested in the Aus market, but personally wonder about this as it sends mixed marketing messages. IMHO Yoghurt would be much smarter.)
Nothing wrong with holding a small amount if you are a believer. I too am a believer, but not at anything like current market prices. Too much blue sky built in already is what I see as the problem.Quote:
That said, I agree it is early days for this company, and much needs to be achieved, but I am very happy to hold a small amount of ATM in my portfolio.
SNOOPY
Thanks Snoopy. A few of points.
1.) Product diversification depends on the stages of a company's lifecycle. I can recall in the 1980's an USA investment in CocaCola was criticised because the company was perceived as 'single brand' and not diversified enough.
2.) A2 has a unique scientific story behind it's product, and this science allows it to command a useful premium. It is a story that my stomach believes literally. I can only digest A2 milk and there are a growing number of loyal A2 followers like me. That said the company needs to be careful to align itself with 'healthy' products and I'm unsure if A2 ice-cream is a wise move.
3.) In Jan 2016 I recorded on this thread that I had sold half my ATM holding (acquired at an av of $0.58c) when the market was $2.40. My ATM holding is now a 'free-holding'. Is that safe enough for you? I consider myself a long term holder and continue to support this company.
Perhaps only half of you is a long-term holder; the other half of you snapped up the chance to cash-in the when the share price spiked up. Would you do the same again if you considered the price gets ahead of itself? You have now recouped your original investment outlay in ATM, so your support for ATM comes "free" to you now.
"Single brands" can be very successful. But that is not an argument to say that they are not diversified, so it doesn't matter. In the case of Coca Cola, they now sell fruit juice and bottled water in NZ. So even if they weren't diversified in the 1980s, that doesn't mean they didn't see diversification as a good idea back then, as they do now.
So you are admitting to user bias in your valuation? I wouldn't discredit the scientific research on A2, or argue with your personal experience. But I would suggest that you are assuming that all other people who have an issue with A1 will automatically follow your example. They might for instance go over to Soy Milk, or give up milk altogether. Both are equally valid solutiuons to their A1 milk problem. A2 is not a monopoly solution to a consumer problem.Quote:
2.) A2 has a unique scientific story behind it's product, and this science allows it to command a useful premium. It is a story that my stomach believes literally. I can only digest A2 milk and there are a growing number of loyal A2 followers like me. That said the company needs to be careful to align itself with 'healthy' products and I'm unsure if A2 ice-cream is a wise move.
I know it is easy to think this way. But Mr Market today has no memory of what net price you acquired your shares at. The market price today is a measure of your stake in this company, and that is probably 'a reasonable amount' in your case. However if you still think your shares in A2 are 'free' consider this. Why don't you just give them to me? They are 'free' right, so this will cost you nothing and really help a fellow 'Sharetrader' out.Quote:
3.) In Jan 2016 I recorded on this thread that I had sold half my ATM holding (acquired at an av of $0.58c) when the market was $2.40. My ATM holding is now a 'free-holding'. Is that safe enough for you?
SNOOPY
I give up Snoopy - You win!
Me off for a weekend escape, happy with my ATM
Why move to soy milk? Soy milk is more expensive than A2 and does not have the same nutirional value. The only logical reason for moving to soy milk rather than A2 milk (if it's available) would be if you suffer from an allergy or intolerance to all real milk, regardless of whether it's A1 or A2.
Logically you are probably right NT001. But you can add nutrients to Soy Milk to make up for any raw nutritional deficiencies, and some Soy Milk makers do just that. Soy milk is not outrageously expensive, $2.40 for the long life stuff at Pak n Save. And my Pak N Save doesn't even stock A2 milk.
SNOOPY
Lot of stocks dropped at end of day re..Brexit. Noticed A2M on the ASX went the other way and got pushed up at end of day. Someone bought 10,000,000, might have something to do with a2m joining the asx200 after 17/6/16.
Snoopy my dear friend, I suspect even if your local Pak n Save did sell A2 milk, you'd spend five years analysing whether it was a good purchase or not and in the mean time the price would increase 500% from when you first considered purchasing.
NBT
*I do appreciate your analysis though.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...5bb8232ad66e0e
The photo above in The Australian doesn't show the offending product, so I have attached a pic that I took in Coles, Cairns. I have also seen Pura use the same misleading and deceptive labels in Adelaide.
I know for a fact that some people are buying the D/F product thinking that they are getting pure A2 milk.
Attachment 8135
I see that the paywall has gone up on the article above, so I have copied and pasted it below:-
a2 Milk sues Lion over branding claims
a2 alleges Lion’s milk labelling is misleading and deceptive. Picture: Calum Robertson
The booming a2 Milk company has launched legal action against Japanese-owned food and beverage multinational Lion Group over the labelling of its Australian milk brands.
Lion, which markets the Pura and Dairy Farmers brands and is owned by the Japanese brewing conglomerate Kirin, is being sued by a2 over moves to market its milk products with the tag “Contains A2 protein” which a2 alleges is misleading and deceptive under the Australian Consumer Law.
A2 yesterday launched the action in the Federal Court in Sydney after it claimed Lion had failed to respond to correspondence on the issue over the course of almost two years.
A2 has long marketed its milk on the basis that it comes from cows hand-picked to naturally produce only A2 protein, which makes it easier to digest.
Some viewed the marketing as a stunt and last year a2 launched legal action against the ABC for defamation.
In its latest claim a2 alleges Lion’s marketing was misleading and deceptive for consumers because, unlike a2, it did not change the protein composition of its milk.
It said Lion’s packaging represented to consumers that the Pura and Dairy Farmers brands were the same as or similar to a2 Milk, or that they had the same protein composition as a2 Milk or had the same or similar benefits as a2 Milk. It said as a result some consumers had purchased Pura & Dairy Farmers milk under the false impression that they were buying a2 Milk.
A2 this week issued its third profit upgrade in six months.
It is seeking an injunction permanently restraining Lion from including on its packaging the alleged misleading and deceptive statements plus damages and interest.
Lion declined to comment.
Have been buying in again in the last few weeks. So have kept a close eye on the depth. Can someone tell me why a certain buyer and seller, probably the same person, has 30,000 to buy and 30,000 to sell, and every couple of minutes they change the order on both buy and sell side up and down by 1c. this has been going on for about 3 weeks now. Is this what they call massage the sp:confused:?
Some of you may find this interesting. Though it is to do with A2 on the ASX market. ..
Daily Gross Short Sales reported for 07-Jul-2016, ASX Limited (ASX) & Chi-X Australia (CHI-X)
No responsibility is accepted for any inaccuracies contained in the matter published.
Securities that have had no short sales actively reported for the date shown are excluded from this report.
ASX Company Name Product/ Reported Gross Issued % of issued capital
Code Class Short Sales (a) Capital (b) reported as short
ASX + CHI-X sold (a)/(b)
1PG 1-PAGE LIMITED FPO 45,430 112,827,228 .04
3PL 3P LEARNING LIMITED.. FPO 140,227 139,034,170 .10
A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED FPO NZ 346,427 712,000,065 .04
Actually , just follow the link....
http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
When are we due for next results? Any people prepared to risk their reputations on what they think news out of uk and USA will be.
A2M has just given a presentation at a big expo in London on allergies and intolerances. The company's nutrition chief Rick Miller and one of their UK farmers were featured in one session, and two Chinese professors who took part in the recent A1/A2 research trial in Shanghai (including the lead scientist) were brought over to talk about how A2 appears to be the answer to lactose intolerance for a lot of consumers. It's great to see the company being so front-footed and generating lots of public interest in the UK. We just have to see how well that's translating into commercial success.
Rumour mill is ripe over in Aus re an article in AFR about a possible takeover of Bellamy's. If there is any substance to that, it should have a positive influence on ATM too, as these guys were already subject to a foiled takeover before by Dean Foods US.
Every time I push the button to buy, it is AIR instead of ATM. Would like to get more ATM, but AIR is in the lime light at the moment. Maybe next week for ATM:).
Good on ya mate, I've done enough buying when it was on sales around that 140-160 level. With FY results due out in 5 weeks I doubt if there much of downward pressure. And I'm quite confident there'll be another upgrade around that time too.
What will put fire under this rocket is an announcement from SML re further capacity upgrade to meet the surging demand!!!
Technical stars aligning here? MA30 vs MA100
Share price looking strong heading into full year results next month. What do ya think.....maybe a little div announcement....We are making so much dosh, and would like to give some back to shareholders;).
100% no chance for divvy yet. Reason being they're just hitting huge growth phase and with investments in UK and USA yet show any profitability I doubt if they be contemplating on dividends at the moment.
Moreover from recent upgrades cash on hand was about $50 mln or so and if they were to give 5c or 10c that's like $35m or $70m on roughly 700 mln shares on issue.
What do people think about the court case against Lion that has started in Australia? Might affect share price the uncertainty?
Yes well done. Down she goes! wonder if she will bounce back before results or drift downwards.
a2 Milk Company’s Peter Nathan says farmers have rushed its door
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1...8fbb?width=320
a2 Milk chief executive Peter Nathan discusses farmers’ desires to access China. Picture: Aaron Francis
- ELI GREENBLAT
- The Australian
- 12:00AM July 28, 2016
The a2 Milk Company (A2M) says dairy farmers have made a rush for its doors, asking to supply milk to the booming dairy and infant formula producer, attracted by the premium it pays for a2 protein products at a time when global milk prices have collapsed.
Peter Nathan, the Australia and New Zealand boss of a2 Milk, said the company had taken on new farmers since processor Murray Goulburn slashed its milk price for suppliers by more than 10 per cent in April, which sparked a similar move by New Zealand’s Fonterra, plunging farmers into financial despair.
However, a2 Milk, which last month issued its third profit upgrade in six months, bolstered by insatiable demand for its products in China despite a regulatory crackdown, would be cautious bringing on new supply.
“We clearly have a lot of farmers who would gladly supply us, and we would need to obviously talk to them, to audit their herds, select the a2 cows,’’ Mr Nathan told The Australian after appearing on a lunchtime panel for Australia Business Forum’s Australia-China Business Week.
“There are a number of farmers who have expressed interest in supplying us based on the fact they do gain a significant premium,” he said. “And we have taken on new farmers, and will continue to look for new farmers, but we need to make sure the supply meets the demand and we don’t get in front of ourselves.”
a2 Milk’s biggest supplier is the Perich family’s Leppington Pastoral Co. Its prices are about 30-40 per cent higher than those paid to farmers supplying the likes of Murray Goulburn and Fonterra.
Business is thriving for companies such as a2 thanks to huge demand from China for its infant formula range, with the company recently updating its full-year forecast to project revenues of $350m-$360m for the current financial year and pre-tax earnings of $52m-$54m.
However, shares in a2 Milk, as well as other dairy and health market darlings Blackmores and Bellamy’s Organic, took a tumble in April when the Chinese government announced a crackdown on foreign goods, such as infant formula and vitamins, entering the country.
Mr Nathan said a2 Milk was well progressed on having its export registration ready by 2018 as stipulated by the new rulings from Beijing.
“There is a formalised process that we need to go through, that is being documented very well and we need to abide by that process.”
Also on the business panel yesterday, Swisse Vitamins CEO Radek Sali said the health products sector was at the beginning of a “golden age” for selling wellness goods into China
Further evidence about growing demand for A2 Infant Formula, courtesy Hotcopper...
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/vodcast.htm
- We meet the new breed of professional shoppers, buying Australian products to order for a growing Chinese clientele [mp4] (03/08/2016)
ABC Lateline last night, click [mp4] to view the programme and see what it says about A2m.
Bring on FY results on 24th....
Will all depend on if they can increase production to meet IF demand in China. Hopefully announcement in end of year !
I disagree that it "will all depend" on if they can increase production to meet IF demand in China. Viewing A2MC as a one-trick pony with everything depending on IF to China is a risky proposition for two big reasons. Firstly, the China market is subject to a number of influences that A2MC has little control over, ranging from regulatory issues to competitive factors. Not that there's any competition in the "A2 milk" niche, but if the big European formula makers flood the China IF market, either directly or through daigou operators, they could potentially force overall prices in China down.
Secondly, I think we tend to underrate the potential impact of A2MC's operations in the UK, USA and NZ. Amidst all the focus on China, these other markets hardly ever get mentioned in discussions of the A2MC share price. It's not that they are yet having much effect on the balance sheet, but I'd be looking for some fairly interesting announcements about how things are going, which could certainly stimulate positive hopes for the near future and thus help augment the SP.
These could include plans to launch new exports from NZ. Hopefully these would include an expansion of IF production of course. But there are other options too, and A2MC has been carefully keeping its NZ plans under wraps (why tell Fonterra your secrets?). We know it does have plans to become a significant player in NZ as from 2017, and staff on the ground already working on them. NZ is a huge producer of surplus milk and has hundreds if not thousands of farmers standing ready to earn premiums by supplying A2. A more active strategy in NZ could also boost NZ shareholder interest in A2MC, which has nosedived over the past year or so with the emphasis moving to Australia.
It looks like A2MC's law suit against Lion/Pura in Australia to stop them labelling their milk as "A2 Protein" may have yielded results. A contributor to HotCopper who is currently in Western Australia has noticed that Pura's milk bottles there now appear to be carrying a new label that omits the offending text. Not in NSW and Victoria as yet. It'll be interesting to see if Lion has backed down or there's been a settlement.