Forward bookings give management confidence. I think $15mil will be conservative. In 2H14 they made $8.5 million.
NPAT after tax doesn't tell the true story. Have a look at cashflows. They had $44mill in Operating and investing cashflows in FY14. Market cap of $158mill.
Yes they sound confident of their forecast. High cash flows are distorted by fleet rationalisation.
Top line growth is an issue (much like AIR). I think it is management priority to sort out the business first. They are still not satisfied with it's operating performance. They believe that that can wring a lot more out of the business yet. My guess is that acquisitions will be the next growth step.
Brokers are expecting top line growth of 5% for AIR
THL paid full tax in FY14.
What's this then ?, extract from annual announcement
Quote:
The final dividend of 6 cps will be partially imputed (up to 50%). The
company has been in a tax loss position in New Zealand and will resume a cash
tax paying position in New Zealand in FY15.
AIR is more exposed to the NZ economy. THL is more exposed to international tourism. Remember THL have operations in USA and Australia and most rentals in NZ are from international tourists. Which company is more exposed to Fuels prices and exchange rates? My hunch is AIR.
A high exchange rate makes N.Z. less attractive to visit. AIR are well hedged on fuel prices.
DISC: Holding AIR and THL