Agree its not the perfect outlook for retail in 2022.
WinnerGrinners 500 by xmas would be very surprising indeed.
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Agree its not the perfect outlook for retail in 2022.
WinnerGrinners 500 by xmas would be very surprising indeed.
Why am I so down ? The reality for the Auckland region is its been an incredibly tough year. A year unlike any other. This paywalled article sums it up quite well. A full 20 weeks of lockdowns for the wider Auckland region this year and counting and what's worse, there's no end in sight. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
Excerpts "If Auckland takes the full eight weeks to work its way through the Government's "three-step plan" for alert level 3, 1.6 million Kiwis will have endured one of the world's most stringent lockdowns for more than half a year. Seven-and-a-half weeks at levels 3 and 4 in March and April last year. Further periods at level 3 in August 2020 and then again in February and March this year. And then levels 3 and 4 since 18 August. Twenty weeks so far, with no end in sight".
"New Zealand entered the pandemic with only a third of the OECD-average number of intensive care beds per capita. Unlike other countries, the Government has done nothing over the last 18 months to increase ICU capacity. In contrast, since the onset of the pandemic, New South Wales has increased ICU capacity from about 600 beds to 1550". This is abject failure of the Ardern Govt and a complete and utter betrayal of the exceptionally hard work Aucklanders have put in.
More "lite" reading:- Auckland business's feel abandoned and ignored https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...PZXBEKVSNXIHA/
Even more reading:- Level 2 in Auckland looking increasingly distant https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politi...7KOLWRXOWTA6Q/
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Will try the Fruit Salad !
Well imagine what it was like in the blitz. But at least they could go down to the local for a pint if it was still open!
Update on the technicals from my perspective:
Many of you have probably been quite concerned with the recent pullback, however when you look at the big picture (monthly chart) there are zero red flags. We have had a confirmed monthly bull flag confirm, so the odds favour continuation of this.
When we zoom in to a weekly chart again we see no red flags i.e. weekly uptrend intact and EMA12 holding.
So what the hell happened with the drop from $4.25??? Essentially we had a longer term breakout (monthly) occur when daily RSI was already at/near overbought levels (you can think of a high RSI meaning 'who is still left to buy?'). This significantly increases the chance of a throwback occurring (all things equal throwbacks occur around 50% of the time). This is exactly what has occurred with a retest of that resistance at $3.90 (now acting as support). Ultimately this is bullish by confirming the breakout above that level.
Looking forwards, on the daily chart we retraced over 50% of the rise so it is unlikely we will rise straight to previous highs unless we at a minimum get a daily trend change. However I think it's likely there'll be more work to do before we get back to those highs (things got much tougher after the placement - a lot of shares out there sitting on 20% gains). Personally I'll be watching for a pullback from $4.10ish for another swing entry.
Disc: hold long term position and actively trading.
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Notice the price trend after April 2021.
the stochastic 14 is not really a reliable indicator of over bought or over sold.
But the chart is still in an upward trend.
The impact of higher interest rates and higher CPI may well impact retail profits.
Outbreaks of the virus are also a reason to protect capital.
Interest rate rises will trigger a rotation into bank stocks away from growth stocks and stock that are cyclical.
Kiwibank economists are reporting that the spending bounce back after this year's lockdown has been less sharp than it was a year ago.
Anecdotally, we’ve heard of retailers limiting their stock to just a handful of brands, and holding onto more inventory than usual. The business model has shifted form Just in Time to Just in Case. So don’t be surprised if you get the same Christmas presents as everyone else this year.
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...print-and-more
Hosking has roasted dear young Mr Hipkins this morning.
Mr B has gone to cash and its a prudent move.
The R number is still going up.
There is no firm date in place for Auckland but level 2 likely for Waka Too and possible Northland in 2 weeks time if no spread.
Auckland is another matter.
Support for hospitality, catering and retail sector needs to be top of list this week from the minister.
Cant see 5 dollars by xmas.
If the number explode in auckland then level 4 will be the only option left as the unvaccinated numbers are still too high.
Would not be surprised to see a tighter border set up.
IMF is forecasting over 5 percent global growth.
No global recession forecast and no recession forecast for NZ.