gYes I too think 65 is a moving target.
The main point of investing is being able to retire "comfortably", at whatever age you decide to retire,whether that is 45 or 85.
In my case I just kept putting off retiring because I loved my job.
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Yes a good discussion and comparison of various points of view and an especially good post by Baa Baa, very well said.
Just want to add a couple of things.
High time we had a full comparison of PE's with the other six Australasian banks and a look at their respective EPS growth rates forecast for the next two years, (I'll try and get on to this later this week if I get time as this will be useful when considering that PE UDC might be floated on.)
Keep in mind that when we get another listing in a sector, (such as the rumored forthcoming UDC float) you often get institutions reallocating capital from the incumbent sector investments. For example we saw all the retirement stocks come under serious pressure this time last year when OCA was floated and they remained under pressure for months afterwards. In effect a new float sucks the wind out of the sails of the incumbent sector players. OCA by no means the only time this has happened, happens more often than not in my opinion.
Good point. Buying opportunities on the horizon ;); Obviously, though - we should not forget to look at the bigger picture.
Banking shares currently under pressure all around the globe - and not sure they found their bottom already. Most of the German banks I follow dropped more than 20% in the last 3 months. Australian banks finding new lows (well, looking at the last handful of years). Markets are nervous with high property prices, unsustainable debt burdens for most developed countries and an idiot president in the East Island adding uncertainty into international trade relations doesn't help either.
While HBL carved out for itself a somewhat cosy niche market, I don't think they can completely decouple from the global trends. If we run into the next big downturn / debt crisis, than they certainly will be effected as well.
Expect markets to stay volatile and nervous ... maybe a good time to go fishing ;) and watch from the sidelines;
Agree 100% with your sentiments on this sector from a global perspective. Not just European and Australasian banks that have been weak.
All very well for clever beagles that can identify that the "top" has been reached and that the SP will not continue climbing.
I've certainly lost out when I have thought I was a clever "top" spotter only for the SP to continue rising. EBO would be an example - I sold at what I thought was a nice profit and have regretted it ever since as the SP has doggedly remained above my sell price.
Agree - Beagle was spot on in picking this peak and kudos to him for freely communicating this view. Not easy to spot peaks without the benefit of hindsight ;).
However - for the mere mortals under us, there was still the MA50 (slightly above $2) and the MA100 (slightly below $2), which I used to dispose of my HBL shares ... and so far not too unhappy about this decision ;);
I have so far timed nothing right but I keep tipping money in every month and I know at least 50% of these will be profitable in the next year and 90% will be in 5 years so I really dont care about peaks and troughs - I'm the Neil Wagner of investing - take the hits and keep going as in the end I'll win big!
German Banks.Unlike German Banks HBL has no Sovereign exposure to countries such as Greece,Spain,Italy or Portugal.In fact no sovereign exposure at all.
Australian Banks.Unlike Australian Banks ,The Australian Royal Commission will have little or no effect on HBL.
Sure - they are a (much) smaller bank with (much) smaller risks. Not sure however, whether these risks are smaller compared to their size. As well - despite having no direct exposure to some of the bigger elephants in the room, they are not out of this world - and a real estate crash or significant increased unemployment coupled perhaps with higher interest rates would impact on the quality of their credit book as well.
Happy to acknowledge that they are a well run business which so far served its long term shareholders very well. Does not mean, though that there are no risks around.
BTW - I remember a well respected poster on share trader to remind us some years ago frequently that it might not be a good idea to hold shares priced well below the MA50 and the MA200 (and I am not referring to KW ;)). Wondering what happened to him? :p;
The outlook for HBL's major market NZ, looks excellent.Low unemployment,and low interest rates for the foreseeable future.
In Australia HBL's RELs are very secure form of lending and are tracking well. HBL are taking a measured approach with their Australian "open for business" products [currently run from Auckland].There appears to be a good opportunities for HBL to tap into the Australian small business lending sector.
Does anybody know why the MA50 and MA200 the preferred MA duration. Perhaps a MA100 and MA 400 or MA25 and MA100 could also work. Has there been any research done on the effectiveness of these Moving Averages? Clearly the death cross will occur on a chart that has been trending down for sometime or has rapidly fallen but by then the chart is clearly in a down trend anyway. I think it really comes down to trying to understand why the particular share has dropped in value. The trick is to be able to take a contrary view to the market and get it right.
I haven’t seen many (if any) accurate TA predictions in the threads that I read on ST. The FA predictions are often right. Don’t want to unduly upset any TAers but I probably have.
For whats it worth I reckon HBL has 'reverted' back to somewhere near a realistic value
Udated post from a month or so ago
Agreed, top end of fair value though. 1.8 times price to book was a huge sell signal as was the forward PE of 17 which is unheard of for Australasian banks...although some on here from vague memory were calling for $2.50 in pretty short order after that, can't quite remember who...leave it to others to check back on the thread last December :p
Thank you everyone who posted their kind thoughts and reputation comments re my post last night, I'm a bit overwhelmed by the warm response. When it's from the heart and hard learned experience it seems to resonate more strongly, albeit unexpectedly, perhaps we can reflect on that. Bless you all.
🙏🏻
BAA
I need to work out which I am more rekt on, my HBL or ETH. Oh snap, it's my HBL
I had a few spare minutes so did a quick comparison of HBL with Australian listed banks.
P/E from ASB site
Operating Profit (ebit) from 4 traders
Looks like HBL now fairly priced as noted by some earlier comments.
Hopefully I have completed this correctly - feedback welcome :-)
P/E 2018 EBIT 2020 EBIT 2 year growth % PEG Australia and New Zealand Banking Group ANZ 12.06 10831 11444 3% 4.26 Australian Finance Group AFG 7.63 46.2 57.7 12% 0.61 Auswide Bank Limited ABA 14.09 25.2 28.4 6% 2.22 Bank of Queensland Limited BOQ 11.88 589 623 3% 4.12 Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited BEN 10.39 692 722 2% 4.79 Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA 12.67 14619 15723 4% 3.36 Cybg Plc CYB 17.77 354 466 16% 1.12 Genworth Mortgage Assurance Australia Limited GMA 7.61 176 207 9% 0.86 Goldfields Money Limited GMY -123.11 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Homeloans Limited HOM 10.41 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Mortgage Choice Limited MOC 9.8 33.8 31.3 -4% -2.65 Mystate Limited MYS 13.99 46.5 51 5% 2.89 N1 Holdings Limited N1H -6.52 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! National Australia Bank Limited NAB 14.64 9361 11035 9% 1.64 Westpac Banking Corporation WBC 12.08 12368 13560 5% 2.51 Heartland Bank Limited HBL 14.46 101 122 10% 1.39