Warren Buffett means when he says " be brave when others are fearful and fearful when others are brave".
This would have to be the most misguided quote in the investment world.
I hate it:mad:
I would hate to think how many (some inexperienced) investors have taken this piece of advice and have lost everything.
Most times bravery is mistaken for calculated action.
Soldiers who risk their lives to save others against huge odds are brave and they deserve their medals and the public's admiration
Investors being brave risking everything....nah Stupid!!!
While we are on the subject of risk.
THIS IS HOW HOOP SEES THE REVELANCE OF USING SIMPLE TA within my bear market investment strategy ( I have my moments:o:))
NZO firing off sell signals since its decline from 168c has now hit its 154c or (152or3) Phaedrus support line. If this support fails we have to look at 132/5cents for the next major major support level set back in July 07 with that of early March 2008 (Phaedrus chart has it at 128 my chart 132 but this immaterial)
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Originally Posted by shephejame http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Talk about an emotional roller coaster. One weeks I'm up 12% the next I'm nearly down 10%! Not the greatest feeling.
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Shephejame Resource stocks are well known rollercoasters....many investors avoid them especially the conservative types with quezzy tummies...adrenlin junkies love them:D:D:D.
Also Shephejame if you are thinking of exiting don't take my exiting strategy advice.
As an investor I have one great failing..... when I exit I go splat!! :o
I can't time a good exit to save my soul.
Always seem to sell at the bottom of the days prices a natural ability I am not proud of....however a bad exit at that time doesn't seem so bad a few days later.
FOR EXAMPLE ...MY LATEST SPLAT! NZO (TA sell signals appeareared) tried a greedy exit last friday and stuffed up, ended up several cents lower at 162 with still no sells... so made my mind up to sell at market(162)but only a quarter of my holding hoping for a bounce off the small support 162 level before I sell the other quarter ...but...no bounce :( so ended selling half today at 156. Still have a quarter holding left.....holding a slight paper loss (instead of small profit) at the moment due to greed.( I bought this whole holding at 161c a month ago) so it's been minimal loss, maximum effort, maximum mess.
The reason why I am selling/sold NZO
1 The bear has found the NZO hiding place (TA sell signals)..and from past experience I have learnt not to fight bears...it's much financially healthier to run away and hide somewhere else.....DONT BE BRAVE. Bugger the FA as the bear can't count.
2 NZO may or may not hold support at 153. It has much risk attached to it, and my chosen bear market investing strategy won't allow this ..so I keep to the discipline of my strategy which says sell. If it holds that's great I can always buy back in.... I have that freedom of choice. If it breaks 153 support it has a more than 50% chance of testing the next 132/5 support and some chance again reaching the 120c TA target.
3 The upside... if 153c support level holds it will require momentum (Not on Phaedrus chart) which has just gone negative so there is no upward push (pressure) If tomorrow onwards brings in buyer numbers and upward pressure there are resistance levels at 162/3 (old support level) and again at 170/1 then 180 and 186 to contend with. At the moment the momentum indicators are showing that 162/3 resistance is going to be difficult to break.
Therefore what TA is telling me today is I am facing a lesser chance of a 10c gain and a bigger chance of 20c loss so sell as the odds are against me. However (for the optimist) tommorrow is another day and TA will be telling me an updated version.. perhaps better odds? Who knows.??.. I could be buying NZO again in a couple weeks ..one just never knows.
4 Better performing stocks elsewhere but risky at the moment, possible bear market rally forming in equities..will wait for comformation ( TA buy signals in individual stocks)
5 Cash is king during the bear market...gives you flexibility and freedom of choice.
6 Riding out the downtrend may lock you in if the anticipated rebound does not materialise..therefore giving you restricted choice..I don't want that at the maturing end of a bear market, as bargains will be appearing shortly and I want money to shopping.
A few of you are wondering where on earth that 120c figure came from when Dr Who mentioned and also what Nita quoted
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Originally Posted bymacduffyhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...s/viewpost.gif
Hi doc
I don't understand much of this tech stuff but what do you base the $1-20 - $1-10 on ?
The only support I can see is around the $1 mark.
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It is a TA target formula if the 153 support line is broken
153 - (186 - 153) = 120c
Before you all go out tommorrow and sell.....On the bright side of things...
TA is not an exact science but does give you odds to reckon with. It all depends on what type of Investor you are and your ability to accept risk and at what degrees of risk you are willing to take to accept the reward offered. Using TA tools gives you the playing field and you the investor mark out it's boundaries to play in. For example if you are a long term medium risk investor... willing to risk downturns for better long term reward and is adverse to frequent buy and sells (e.g Tax + IRD) then short/medium indicators tell you what type of storm is approaching and you can assess whether to weather it out or not and would note that the 15 month uptrend line is still in place and it would need the NZO price to fall below 110c to create a long term downtrend ...so TA wise... some long termers will not react to these recent sell signals as their individual investment strategy does not require them to. Also TA is less important to the long and very long investors FA would probably be more important to them.
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NZOGSUXS Hello ..bye.. very quick Cameo... won't be missed
...Wrong Company mate This one is a NZ gem. NZO is helping New Zealand stay out of the economic $hit. You wishing it to go down will affect your back pockey .....less mun less fun....comprendo amigo!!
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PS ......Sorry about the colour my spell checker has thrown a wobbly