Butterfly hunters!
Is this a giant butterfly forming on the July 08 - October 09 EUR/USD daily?
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Butterfly hunters!
Is this a giant butterfly forming on the July 08 - October 09 EUR/USD daily?
If we take this view of a bullish butterfly shown in the chart of Novellus below then (at the moment) we are missing b-c and going straight from C-D but so far it is has met the fibs of a 61.8% retracement of the leg from mid July 1.61 ish down to 1.23 and has also done a 78% retracement of the leg from 1.23 - 1.48 and hence so far is in line perfectly with only the last week not exactly playing the tune to the textbook.
in my chart I've drawn in dotted orange how the butterfly might look. ab projects 1.618% at 1.16 and BC projects 1.27% at 1.17 so around there would be the PTZ and the buy zone I suppose. Someone check my maths.
Also note ananda77 that technically speaking the theory only suggests the final point D as a valid buy signal and until then the pattern hasnt played out although other patterns have eg arco's bat. I'm not sure if a butterfly can survive the onslaught of a bat
Hi Peat
If we get a turn now, the BAT is still a possibility
when the X is taken from the lower point circa 28/10.
(Here's the old chart, and if we take the lower point the
886 is still pretty close to the current price)
rgds - arco
I've updated my original post with different projections and comments on posts that came afterwards.
But no I do not have prescience :cool:
noticed a three drives pattern down since 21:00 NZT last night and then a bullish gartley so laid into it with a very large trade for me (and a smaller one for the bigger pattern) and it came through pretty quick.
the most certain part of the gartley is the bit from 78% retracment back to the 38%
i reckon there is some serious overhead resisitance on euro at 1.39
? shaping upfor a short
Yep, I reckon every man and his dog is gonna be trading that reistance level, if it breaks, we'll be seeing 1.45 in no time. Gentlemen, place your stops :)
Hi DB,
I was long Euro from lower levels but i got shaken out at 1.3575.i am dubious as to just how high the Euro will go,all the data out of there is dismay as was the news Friday nite,having said that there is no meaningful reversal yet and price is always king
...there are possibly only two ways how to finance the US deficit:
1- The federal deficits could be financed by further flight from equities and other investments. The next financial shock could arise from commercial real estate. Stores are closing in shopping centers, and vacancies are rising in office buildings. Without rents, the mortgages can’t be paid.
Another scare and another big drop in the stock market will set off a second "FLIGHT TO QUALITY" and finance the budget deficits (buying up treasuries >to be on the safe side, the safest way would be to buy the shortest term treasuries)
2- The Federal Reserve will buy most of the new bonds and create demand deposits for the Treasury. In effect, the money supply will grow by the amount of Fed purchases of new Treasury debt. Printing money to finance the government’s budget normally leads to high inflation and high interest rates.
The initial impact of the announcement of the Fed’s plan to purchase existing debt was to drive up the bond prices. However, if the reserves poured into the banking system by the bond purchases result in new money growth, and if the Fed purchases the new debt issues to finance the governments’ budget deficits, the outlook for bond prices and the dollar becomes poor.
source: http://vdare.com/roberts/090319_bailout.htm
...looking at the long term trajectory of equity markets as well as the fact that the Fed's intention remains to keep interest rates at their lowest possible level for a prolonged period of time, it looks most likely that 1- should be the preferred strategy to tackle the deficit problem...
Kind Regards
...after 3 cent surge, USD looks like on its way to challenge 92.63 level...
...sweet, as long as key level remains *83.7 on downside
-demand for USD remains high globally as a safe haven bet as well as being the denominated currency of global issued debt
-NO INFLATIONARY PRESSURES due to huge gap in global economic output (DEFLATION)
-due to global QE to close global output gap, erecting protective tariff barriers, as well as competitive currency devaluations avoided
-expect NZD to depreciate (more rate cuts as well as QE) as further appreciation of exchange rate would be deflationary to the struggling NZ economy
Trading Strategy: long USD/NZD
Kind Regards