Emearg's point was why is their staging site exposed to the internet and not behind a firewall? It's very unprofessional.
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Emearg's point was why is their staging site exposed to the internet and not behind a firewall? It's very unprofessional.
Maybe, but they are not professional web site developers. Meanwhile it is nice for us to see the sort of thing they are working on.
Hey, we had some unexpected bad news but not let's not start adding in the small stuff. These guys are still coping with a very big ask. I am concerned that revenue expectations have not increased and would appreciate some helpful discussion of that from the company, along with more news generally, but so far we are not seeing evidence of things going backwards, just of a couple of customers trimming their cash investments in holding stock to judge by the latest news. Yes, an actual cloud on the horizon for the first time in a while, but not evidence of a storm approaching. We hope that we will get more useful news by May at the latest.
Maybe the company is about to issue a final update for the year? And maybe they are about to issue a forward guidance a little later? Will we find out whether positive cash flow was actually achieved for the whole year? Was there in fact a loss for the second half, or did they match expenses to actual income despite the unexpected deferral?
Well, the golden rule of debating is this: If you don't start with the truth as the audience sees it then you will not influence them. They should address the question of whether growth is still growing strongly, or is in fact somewhat stalled.
The crew need to be able to look at the captain and see if he is happy (my pet view of investment for many years now) but all we see presently is the closed door of the captain's office. Is there happiness in there or gloom? We don't know, or I don't anyway. Of course, it would be nice to knock on the cabin door and ask. But publicly listed companies can only make information available by public statement.
Hi Simla
BLT issued a sales and profit update on April 14 last year. Maybe we might get the same this year especially as they are forecasting their maiden profit. If that happens we have only three weeks to wait.
Patience Grasshopper.
As an investor and a buyer of Blis based overseas I was disappointed to read this:
Dear subscriber,
In the past you have subscribed to Blis website and communications through a tool called ‘Sumo’ which has provided us with your email address and permission to contact you.
Blis Technologies is undergoing a significant review of its online activities including a new website and e-commerce operation and these changes will impact on future orders from Blis.
For those of you based in NZ, you will still be able to purchase products from our website.
We are making changes to the shipping policy in NZ. We will be moving to using NZ Post Track and Trace for all orders. For any order under $80 in value, shipping will cost $5. For all orders over $80, shipping will be complimentary.
International visitors will not have access to purchasing Blis products online when we make this change. We will be building up our international sites again as quickly as possible but it may be some months until these are functional again. We want to ensure that our international visitors can pay in local currency and that shipping is easy and transparent. This means we need to spend time to build specific sites for key international countries.
An exact date is to be determined but we expect the new site will go live during the first 2 weeks of April 2017.
We will not be running the 2 sites in parallel, so for international buyers in particular, this is the time to stock up before access is suspended. We will of course keep you informed of progress for international sales.
Thank you for your ongoing support of Blis Technologies.
Kind regards
Team Blis
I can't quite believe that they can't sort out a site in the background and launch both NZ & international capabilities at the same time. I'm not terribly technically minded when it comes to websites but it seems a real shame, from an investment POV, that they are stopping the purchase of their own products and don't even have a time line as to when this will be over. Really disappointed.
........is it really that big of a problem REGO? As they advise just stock up a bit till it comes on-line. Like you Im not that tech savvy and would also have thought they could have done a better "alignment" ........but I guess if they saw it as a big issue they would have??
Inconvenience in the short term. But ability to pay in local currency is superb. Amazon offers that and I love it. Quality move from BLT if so.
I am stocked up and it's not big deal for me. I'm just disappointed that 'it may be some months' before international visitors can buy again. I'm looking at this from the point of view that I'm invested in BLT and they're not selling product during this time. Their international online purchasers may not be a very large pool in which case, fine, but that then begs other questions. I've got 12 months of K12 and 6 months of M18 so not going to be an issue from where I sit.
Big mistake today from BLT. Email sent out to nearly 500 customers showing all the email addresses. They did recall it but too late. Apology followed, and some red faces I am sure. I don't suppose it will happen again, but not a good look.
A couple of concerns regarding that email.
1) It was only sent to around 500 people. Is that all the previous customers they have on their email list or was the mail out split into multiple batches?
2) The tech behind the email is obviously very low, probably just used an email client. No targeting of the text based on the known country of the customer etc.
Well I'm peeved that despite buying plenty from them over the years on line that I didn't get an email at all. So I'm obviously not on that list-or was it just to overseas based buyers? From the above text it sounds like it was to NZ customers too, so it does raise a few questions.
Well, anyway this reaction here is a demonstration on why companies need to put work into public perception of the company. It generates goodwill which companies need from time to time. It is why takeovers pay for goodwill.
Communication has consequences and should be as carefully planned as other activities, and not regarded as just that thing any old person can do at the last moment to meet obligations. Give it to someone with an interest in good communication (clear, comprehensive, and sensitive to emotional implications) and who expects to spend time thinking it through. And better yet get someone else with the same interest to give feedback before issuing the communication. The above email was pleasantly enough written to say what the company wanted to say, but a keen second opinion might have picked up that it did not say what the recipients wanted to hear, as witness comments above.
Likewise I would have said the current sagging share price was a reflection of the company's communications rather than its prospects. Or I hope so. Careful communication would settle that. Less telling us what the company wants to say, and more telling us what we need to hear.
The art of communication lies in saying what the other person wants to hear, not what you want to say - as anyone can attest who has endured listening to a great aunt rant on and on! It is usually possible to attain both ends with a little thought though.
I suspect BLT's communication re lower sales etc has taken the pressure off their performance, giving them breathing room to make some e-commerce marketing improvements via the internet.
That said, I think it v puzzling and concerning that they did not keep International website sales going until the new site is ready. Perhaps their International sales via the web were negligible?
This year I've reduced my holding a tab (doubled my money, so remainder is 'free') but am holding the remainder as a long term punt and looking forward to more info from the company. I suspect it will be at least Dec/Jan before we have any good news.
They really have to improve especially on that website of theirs. My last online order early this month took 7 days! Seven days and without track and trace option from Dunedin when most online stores would even make the 2nd day delivery from your order date. So good on them for making some badly needed changes, be it the website or internal/external comms.
Blis seem to be getting 'mickey mousier' by the day
Will they ever be a decent company?
...agree RGR. I think we all just need to suck this little "blip" up and view it as a positive..........a small cost to moving things ahead for future gains in growth. I certainly wont be loosing any sleep over it.
The hole using NZ Post is a joke. I did that for a while in my business, wow talk about snail mail, i got so many complaints, also no track and trace (you really need to have that), also lots of parcel went missing.. I went back to Courier Post, who are way cheaper then $5 a parcel and a much faster service with tracking.
I have taken something of that view recently in light of the uncertainty. Haven't reduced down that far, but feel prudence is in order presently nevertheless, and have reduced a bit.
These three viewpoints sum up the conundrum for investors. The company appears to be in a good position overall and the outlook must surely be reasonable. But over what time scale?
The company were "upbeat" last May. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/282826
Then we had a shareholder update in June. It was upbeat too, told us a little news, but then was not repeated later. http://blis.co.nz/media/wysiwyg/pdfs...chnologies.pdf
We hoped that might develop into regular news with meat in it, as this recent example from Arvida. Not so far. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255282.pdf
Then the September report had a commentary of just 1000 words including the titles. It did however talk of "strong sales performance", and future "rapid growth", and hiring 3 new key managers.
Then the February announcement of expected sales of just $6.5m compared to $5.6m last year. It said underlying demand had not changed, but of course we do not know what underlying demand is. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/297031
What to make of it? It's beyond me to know what this adds up to. Might be good, or average, or bad. The only constant seems to me to be very minimal communication.
Just introduced an officemate to Blis products today and got that introduction closed when she ordered more than $100 (less 10% discount as a new online user) 5 minutes ago. Yeah, told her it will take about 7 days for her order to materialize at her doorstep :(
NZ Post don't want parcels - they want you to use their subsidiary Courier Post
Blis must be pretty non-commercially minded even contemplating using normal post - unless he volume is so pathetic it's just the office girl dropping off the odd parcel at he local Post Shop on her way home.
The quoted email did say " We will be moving to using NZ Post Track and Trace for all orders". NZ Post have been advertising a lot about their parcel services lately so maybe things have changed.
That's pretty bad.. I work for a web development company and this sort of thing isn't what I'd expect from a company the size of Blis. We're developing e-com sites all the time on development domains and testing etc until it's ready to swap out on a clients live domain with minimal downtime. Including sticking to planned launch deadlines etc. And this is all for companies much much smaller than Blis.
Also.. we have in-house jokes about companies sending emails en masse without using BCC.. so you receive everyones email addresses. I cannot believe they did that! And as Bilbo pointed out.. is 500 all they had? Probably not. Most email servers (like ours) will not entertain mass emails going out. Otherwise we risk someone starting a hosting account with us only to spam people and get our servers blacklisted.
So we safe-guard against that and insist that if a customer wants to send out a lot of emails - they need to use a proper mass-mailing tool for that (we provide one for them to use). Which is the way proper companies safely send out mass emails. We have removed customers from our hosting services before for refusing to use our mailing system - and sending out multiple batches of mass-emails just under the quota before.
All this is showing the IT ability of Blis in a very poor light - my mum has better e-com practises than this.
Look, this isn't the biggest news in the world.
But neither will the folks in Dunedin be feeling on top of the world to be reading comments like some of the above. This is WHY the company needs to take time to charm it's shareholders. So that there is goodwill floating around when you need it. So you can feel good about what people are saying and thinking about your company. So you can feel good about going to work.
Hint: You are about to deliver another annual report. Be up front. Be generous with the information. Don't suppress the bad news or the good news. Remember that your shareholders are your business partners. Charm us.
Kiwis have pretty straight forward social rules. You earn respect by being up front. You lose respect by not being up front. Kiwis are pretty forgiving of meeting difficulties, so long as you are upfront about them. Charm us with your candour. And remember that the financials will be painting a picture too, so no point trying to ignore what they say. Take time to write a full report, and take time to get someone else to read it and give you feedback about where it is ambiguous, or thin, or stone walling. Tell us what is going right, what is going wrong. Tell us what strategies you are currently following. Tell us what you hope from the next couple of years, which may be a range of possible outcomes. We value your candour and understand that things can be pretty hard sometimes ... if you are upfront in return.
Maybe even start by giving a more open brief assessment now as an end of year update. But remember to run it past someone to find out whether it really is upfront. Stone walling is the biggest charm killer going.
Honestly, it can surely not take much effort (1 hour?) for someone from Blis to sort out their website, which is (and has been for the 15 years I have been a shareholder) an embarrassment.
I know that Blis employees read this forum. This is for you
Go to this page.
http://blis.co.nz/faqs
Click on edit. Sort the fricking thing out.
Repeat for all pages. Read them. Fix them. You are a publicly listed company and owe it to your shareholders to at least **appear** professional, regardless of whether you actually are.
totally agree, but looks like they are in the process of relaunching their website.
Slightly off topic, but surely of interest to Blis investors, have you seen Mother Dirt - good bacteria for the skin? Check out http://motherdirt.com/
Blis Technologies Limited (Company) advises that Anthony Offen has attained
the status of independent director as the result of ceasing to be a
substantial product holder of the Company.
Director sold all his shares ? Mmmmmm
If the company wants a blueprint on clear communication with shareholders, they need look no further than this release from the Wellington Drive AGM. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256953.pdf
And if they haven't got anyone who can communicate this well, then they should get someone. Clear communication is THE key to growing sales, given that you already have a good product. In my opinion anyway.
These are better:
http://blis.co.nz/products/blis-toot...l#.WP2sIIiGMuU
http://blis.co.nz/products/toothguar...l#.WP1bhYiGMuU
I like em...
Yep, super.
Nice advertisement:
https://blisprobiotics.wistia.com/medias/nlfe42rwqh
You can click skip rather than entering your email address if you wish.
It seems the new guy has some marketing smarts.
Yes, that is good. I'd have thought that will surprise people a bit, assuming it is scheduled for tv.
The company news remains a small number of hard to correlate information points. Here's hoping the next report has a "you are here" section.
BLT 08/05/2017 08:35 MKTUPDTE PRICE SENSITIVE REL: 0835 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited MKTUPDTE: BLT: Blis Technologies reports a maiden EBITDA surplus Blis Technologies reports a maiden EBITDA surplus Blis Technologies reports an unaudited EBITDA surplus of $586k but a small net deficit of $24k on total revenue of $6,547k (2015: $5,661k) for the twelve months to 31 March 2017. The operating cashflow positive result represents an EBITDA turnaround of $846k compared with last year and comes on the back of a 16% increase in trading revenue. The Board of directors have chosen to defer the recognition of any tax asset due to the net financial deficit. The company will report its full year annual audited financial results by Monday 26 May 2017.
The stars are beginning to align. Still can't get over the hurdle of declaring that magic 'P' word though....
Maybe they can now afford to do that TV ad that was suggested earlier.
Historic!
Good result in view of the extra staff salaries for much of the period.
Obviously that is extremely good news.
But not without shades to my mind. The first 6 months report had a surplus before tax of 428k (p6), whereas this is deficit of 24k, which would seem to imply a second half loss of 452k? Also, it reports cash flow positive operating full year. But the first half had positive operating cash of 690k (p9), so there would appear to be a possibility of negative operating cash second half, although that is just a surmise based on the seeming second half loss.
The final revenue was 6.547m. The AGM presentation last year reported Q1 revenue of 1.947m (p19), leaving 4.6m for the remainder of the year, which annualises at (4.6 * 4/3) or 6.13m pa, or just 8% more than last year if you ignore the early Q1 larger figure, which was almost a year ago.
Further, the AGM presentation last year reported an EBITDA of 340k for Q1 (p19), whereas the full year is apparently 586k, or 240k extra for the remaining 9 months, or 80k per quarter?
Yes, very good news. We've waited a long time for that. But I continue to look forward to full reporting from the company in the next report.
As usual, do your own maths. I'm a shareholder. Just my personal viewpoint.
Source : last few annual reports, plus update on 2017 just published.
(000s) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Loss -1856 -1541 -1373 -816 -24 Revenue 1161 1322 2631 5661 6547 Total Expenses 3017 2863 4004 6477 6571 Cost of goods sold 527 585 935 1762 Ergo other expenses? 2490 2278 3069 4715
So a few points.
1. The revenue has increase 5.6 fold in four years.
2. The increase in revenue of 5386k has resulted in reducing the loss by 1832k.
3. Other expenses (not cost of goods sold) have apparently increased 53% just between 2015 and 2016, and about doubled from 2013 to 2016.
4. These figures show why we still have not got a profit ie. extra expenses? Could the company simply "decide" to reach a good profit next year then, or even in a few months first half?
I have checked the figures carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them. As usual, just my viewpoint, feel free to dispute it.
Good result but still cant convince the auditor that they will be profitable (on a tax basis) going forward. Otherwise they would have recognised the Deferred Tax Asset with respect to tax losses carried forward. Hopefully it is just the auditors being overly conservative!
I have to confess to being disappointed. I'm sure people are working hard, but that was not what we hoped for after an "upbeat" start to the year.
This is turning into a game of two questions:
1. Why is there not more growth?
2. Why is the company spending so much if they do not have the income to cover it?
Of course, the company could and should answer those questions in the next report. It's not like nobody has noticed these obvious big points. The financials always report on those points quite openly.
6.5m in revenue, and yet what do we get? Yet another loss. Unexciting growth. No chance of dividends in the foreseeable future as things stand? Share price going nowhere. And some lucky people presumably get to stand for re-election this year as usual. Interesting.
Happily the board will present the situation fully in the annual report and we'll all be happy duckies!
Sales growth has certainly slowed.
There are 1,107,653,565 shares on issue giving a market cap of just under $43.2 mil @ 3.9 cents share price.
Just does not add up with revenue of only $6.5 mil..
"The company will report its full year annual audited financial results by Monday 26 May 2017."
I just noticed that there is no Monday 26 May. Perhaps they mean Friday 26 May.
A plan that obviously should work is to take a very large pair of scissors to the expenses. That would instantly produce a respectable profit. The 2016 report talked of non-recurring costs that year, but that does not seem to have altered the outcome this year?
Another plan that should work is to change the objective. The reports constantly talk of growing revenue, and I would like them to start instead talking of growing profits. If you are aiming at growing revenue then of course you are going to spend money to achieve that aim. But if you are aiming at growing profits, the incentive would be the opposite.
A large pair of scissors to the expenses would be an excellent starting point.
Yeah Leon! Trim it down so they make a tiny profit and stop growing the revenue. Sticking with a tiny profit will be much better than growing Blis into a decent sized company with big profits. Maybe they can cut some staff? 20 odd people is clearly excessive! Trim the marketing budget? They spend far too much on that. And cut the support people out. Their customers and partners don't need support in launching new products. And cut the tiny budget in making their crappy website slightly less crappy. I'm with you pal no question! You should be in charge.
Emearg, it's not about not investing. It's about balance. I assume you don't wish they had just spent an extra 10m last year for example.
But if growth is going to be slower, as now seems a possibility, then we need to be turning out profits. The patents don't last forever.
Look, the company had a 428k profit before tax locked in six months ago, and a 690k operating cash surplus. (Half year report, p6, p9). But now that's gone (though we haven't seen the cash flow yet). That would still be there if expenditure had been limited to income.
Consider the last two results expressed the old fashioned way:
FY 2016: (from 2016 Annual Report) http://blis.co.nz/media/wysiwyg/pdfs...eport_2016.pdf
100% Sales Revenue 5.661m 2016 report, p12 -31% Cost of Goods Sold 1.762m 2016 report, p22 69% "Gross Profit" 3.899m Net of above, traditional definition of gross profit? -83% Money the company spent 4.715m Total expenses, 2016 report p12, 6.477m less cost of goods sold above (ie. already included) 1.762m -14% Net Loss -0.816m 2016 report, p12
FY 2017: (from 2017 update 8 May 17) https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/257705.pdf
100% Sales Revenue 6.547m 2017 update -31% Cost of Goods Sold * 2.049m * If at the same rate as 2016 69% "Gross Profit" 4.498m Net of above, traditional definition of gross profit? -69% Money the company spent 4.522m Total expenses = loss (24k) + revenue (6547) 2017 update, less cost of goods sold above (ie. already included) 2.049m -0.003% Net Loss -0.024m 2017 update
As is plainly visible, there is a good underlying business turning out profits. But the company keeps outspending that profit - whatever the reasoning and sure that can be debated from various points of view.
2018 ... and all future years please (in my opinion)
100% Sales Revenue -31% Cost of Goods Sold 69% Gross Profit -54% Money the company can spend +15% Net Profit
(And hopefully the percentage profit will rise over time as the need for investment reduces. But it should never drop below 15%.)
To do that: Lock the profits in cash in a separate bank account month by month. Never ever spend ahead now because you think good times are just around the corner. If you ain't got the cash, don't spend it. Make that 15% profit every single month of the year. Month after month. Year after year. And the only way to protect that profit is to only ever spend those profits on: cash reserves; dividends; investments that qualify as capital expenditure under audit guidelines.
If this is done, so that profits are turned out like clockwork, then the company would surely become more respected on the market with a respectable share price. When the company does business overseas there is surely no doubt that the prospects look up Blis's share and many doors must surely be quietly closed as they look at a share price of just a few cents. It is simply a good business investment to protect your company's share price surely.
As usual, just my personal views as a shareholder based on the public information available to me. I have checked the figures, but check them yourselves if relying on it. Feel free to disagree. I never claim to be right.
Hey, Bobby, nice to hear from you with one of your elusive posts :)
Without going into all the details Simla, your analysis of the financials seems pretty fair to me and I agree the company's reputation is not looking particularly flash. In fact, there must be a few red faces among the management and board members right now.
I think the BLT team had better be working on preparing a very convincing story about what went awry in 2017 and what they are going to do about fixing it over the coming year.
They had us all excited six months ago about prospects for a maiden profit of $700k and now that has turned out to be a mirage. It's obvious the market has lost confidence (latest SP 3.3c) so if BLT is investing in marketing and other activities that will turn the ship around in the next 12 months then let's have some details of the plan to give us confidence they know what they are doing.
I attended last year's AGM in Dunedin, met Brian Watson and felt he was a good choice to follow on from Barry Richardson. Right now, I'm not so sure - the general lack of communication, the reversal of fortunes in such a short period, no news of what's happening in China or other markets, not even a correction of the (admittedly minor) reporting date error in their 8 May announcement - all leave me wondering.
Friday 26 (or perhaps Monday 29) May is an opportunity for redemption. I hope Brian and the directors don't waste it.
Bonne chance.
Pierre
Hi Simla. I don't hold any more, but I still keep half an eye on BLIS' progress. At one time (we're going back to 2003 now) I must have been BLIS' no. 1 fanboy on ST, but I gradually lost confidence after repeated promises from the company that situation cashflow positive was just round the corner. Well they finally made it, so maybe brighter times are ahead? It was around the time I was losing confidence, that you showed up and took over as the main poster on the thread. I finally sold out in disgust after the debacle that was the conversion of the preference shares back in 2012, when I believe holders of the ordinary shares got stiffed ... but no need to relitigate that. Do I now detect in your posts the beginnings of exasperation with the glacially slow progress BLIS appears to be making? I've moved on to greener pastures since booking significant losses on my BLIS holdings, and I'm much happier for it, but I do wish you and all current holders the best of luck. You never know, there may still be a pot of gold at the end of the BLIS rainbow somewhere?
Yes, Bobby, 2012 was a very testing time for investors. After much thought I finally decided I could not fault the company's actions and backed Barry to dig some new foundations for the company despite the share price which indeed he did, presumably with much effort. For those of us who did that, the reward has already been reasonable and I have a reasonable profit to show for sticking with them. But not as much as I hoped for by now.
Exasperated now? Well, we do not know enough (or I don't anyway) to know whether the company is doing well in the circumstances. But I admit that if the next report is not clear and comprehensive that I am starting to think it might be time for me to vote for some fresh blood on the board. Undecided at this stage, but every election is open to the "it's time for a change" effect. It would certainly be a considerable change of stance for me after so many years of being such a staunchly loyal shareholder. But I'll wait and see what the report says.
Hi Bobby
I wont presume to speak for Simla - but my own feelings are most certainly in the exasperation category that you describe.
I've been a holder and supporter since 2005 and participated in all the capital raisings since that time. My average cost is very low and I'm currently showing an unrealized gain of 75% - not as good as when the SP was up around 6c and my gain was 300%+ - but moderately acceptable all the same.
It always seems with BLT that just when the light is appearing at the end of the tunnel it turns out to be another bloody train and not the daylight that we (holders) are hoping for. As I mentioned in my earlier post neither the new CEO's disappointing lack of communication, nor the company's sudden change of fortune - once again - fill me with much confidence right now.
I actually think glaciers are probably moving faster than BLT but then again maybe we will get some more cheering news on "Monday 26 May" (sic) and the pot of gold may move into sight in the coming year. I wont be taking any wagers on it though!
Wellington Drive being one? Me too...took a beating on them investing a decade ago but they do seem to be running well now with the new guy. I have lost plenty though. Never mind...learn...and be greatful of having a decent job to make up for my youthful enthusiam :)
My sarcastic message last night sure has made this forum more interesting so that is one positive. My point is that after a decade holding Blis I don't want them to back off now and settle for mediocrity. Go crazy and hopefully you succeed. You will make me rich if you do. If not life will continue. We don't know enough to know what is happening, and some fluffy words in the report won't tell us anything. I learnt that from Ross Green from Wellington Drive. Bull sheet artist numero uno. He should work at Rakon. Numbers tell the truth. Right now tracking poorly. One off? Will need to wait and see. Cheers
Just got an email saying they've launched their new website today! And international customers can pay with their local currency. https://blis.co.nz/?mc_cid=a5d8c8fd2c&mc_eid=cdfcadbdee
Looks good, but it seems a bit buggy on the iPhone... a few 404 pages... especially on the "buy now" link!
It would have been good if they had let someone out of the firm and their marketing co have a play around on the website and find it's glitches and what would make it work better. Nonetheless, at least they are doing something.
Yes, it looks very cohesive and sensible, like the website of a company that has some polish. A lot of 404s in the investor centre too presently.
Obviously in light of the 2017 result, I'm wondering at what cost was this stuff done. Website. Toothguard and its video. Repackaging of existing products. Lots of staff. That makes sense if it definitely will lead to strong growth, but otherwise could be strung out over time. Balance etc.
I continue to look forward to the next report.
I'm impressed that it is 'responsive' ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsive_web_design ). Anyone contacted them pointing out the broken links?
Bevan Wallace has resigned as director. No explanation was offered in the announcement. He certainly has laboured long and hard for the company and that effort is appreciated. Thank you for all you have done. https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/301390
However, the data points remain puzzling. Many will have spotted this clip "Blis holders reduce stakes " http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/9232...-reduce-stakes
And then look at the new management team at Blis. The chairman has been there a long time, the deputy chair a fair time, and the rest of the team joined in 2014, 2014, 2012, 2016, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2016. https://blis.co.nz/investor-centre/c...te-governance/
The times they are a changing at Blis whichever way you look at it.
Let's hope the next report is heartening. The share price looks ready to slip into the 2 cent range otherwise to judge by the market bids this morning.
Well, the 1.5m drop in the February update https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/297031 stressed that underlying demand remained the same, and presumably they expect growth on last year's target as well, so the potential has to be there for good news if they make a forecast. Of course, we would also want some confidence that the costs would not grow to meet that.
Interesting times presently. No trend lines to fall back on that I can see.
Thanks for posting the article Simla.
In terms of shareholders, the largest shareholder remains Leveraged Equities a company associated withForsyth Barr principals, Sir Eion Edgar and Neil Paviour- Smith....... no fools those guys.
Yes, the price has been almost a continuous downhill slope since July last year.
But .. are people sure of the choice? Say the 8m revenue estimate for last year remains the base for the coming year, and add in 25% expected growth. Then they could be (maybe) going to forecast revenue of 10m this year. If they then declared an intention to run a 15% profit on gross, that would be 1.5m, or 0.13 cents per share (1.5m/1107m). At a PE of 45, that would be 45 * .13 = 5.85 cent share price, or considerably more than trading today. (Check the maths yourself obviously.) And presumably with reasonable prospects for the future then.
Or maybe they will downgrade on the forecast in light of last year's experience.
It's all highly speculative. But nevertheless the market price appears to be entirely based on sentiment presently rather than maths. If the company were to surprise us by releasing a report designed to reassure the market, then the result could be interesting. And if not, then who knows.
All very fluid presently in my opinion. I have no idea what to expect.
Man, I've owned shares in BLT for 15 years and every day I hope that there's going to be exciting press release detailing how they've signed up some multi million dollar deal with some large global company. Alias, not to this point. Generally it's 1 step forward and 1.5 steps back....Year in, year out...
I believe in the science and the products but the marketing and therefore sales just doesn't seem to gather enough momentum.... Is it because it's pushed as a preventive or post illness "supplement". Myself, I do not use a "product" to stop me getting ill or one, once I've got better...I would guess that a great deal of the population has a similar outlook???? Yes, I know they have the lozengers which help a sore throat but I think they need to incorporate or develop a product which is actually used to cure or improve health at the time of the illness...
Take their fresh breath kit.. Bad breath is a problem and I'm sure there are days when my breath isn't as fresh as it could be but do I know that.... Sure, family or friends might tell you but what would you do about..... Buy some gum or mints and hope it goes away?? Additionally there appears to be some time and energy involved in using the kit to get the "maximum" benefit/results...
People want results, cures and with convenience. What about mints or gum which promote instant fresh breath (other products do that) but incorporates properties which prevent bad breath occurring and agreesively market that point of difference???
What about putting the science into infant formula, milk powder, honey or other dairy products??? Get involved with Fonterra or A2....
Perhaps pie in the sky stuff but I believe they need to change their approach from preventive or post to actual/cure/getting better...
Regards a frustrated shareholder....
I am fairly sure that the company could turn the share price around by committing to keeping costs in ratio to the income and never spending ahead of cashflow, thus locking in future profits. Better yet would be to commit to the actual ratio they would constantly aim at (eg 15% profit on gross, which seems to me to be eminently sensible as a target) so that the market had some certainty of what was coming. This would remove (most of) the speculative element in owning BLT shares and we might finally see some interest from non-present-holders who undoubtedly look at the price history of BLT with trepidation.
Hi Simla and thanks for keeping the interest up.....your posts are invaluable in that regard and you clearly do more research than most of us. Disappointing to see the SP at these old levels again for sure but Im not surprised given the change in sentiment over the last few months. Pity. Anyway Im seeing it as a buying opportunity as I really do believe this will be short lived.........too much work is going on behind the scenes and too much money going into rebuilding/rebranding for results then sentiment not to turn soon.......IMHO.
Almost halfway to my 3 year holding plan and the price now is just slightly a tad higher when I started buying. So I am not disillusioned yet. That "gut feel" is still strong on this one :cool:
Well, certainly it is hard to see prospects not improving over time. The problem is that we've said that for a few years now yet costs keep eating the profits. It would so great for the company to make some sort of commitment on that front.
One difficulty with the staff all being so recent is that it is very hard for them to appreciate just how very very long shareholders have held in here. I would compare it to checkout staff looking at older people irritatedly for being able to afford good food. They simply cannot appreciate what a very long time several decades is and how much effort it is to save up over those long decades - decades is just a word for them and it just means "slightly longer then it was for me" when you haven't actually been there and done that. I've been in this for ten years and that is ten times as long as people who joined in 2016. Ten times is a very long time ... but again, just words if you haven't been there.
So funding to reduce rheumatic fever has been halved in the Budget with focus now being on Auckland, probably South Auckland. as Maori and Pasifika are disproportionately affected. So the government has realised that 'if we always do what we've always done ...'. Maybe time to spend the millions of dollars on BLIS, as was done in Whakatane schools with excellent results.
Funding for rheumatic fever prevention halved in Budget despite failure to cut hospitalisations
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11864132
Thank you.
Blis annual report 2017 now out. https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/259053.pdf
There was more detail than in the past. I am grateful for that and somewhat relieved. Still very little information on end-user activity in actual markets. For instance, the US was barely mentioned (although they seem to going for GRAS on M18 now).
Significant bits that I saw:
- "early trial activity in China as one of our prospective customers prepares for launch activity in FY2018. (p4)
- "The Company recorded positive net cash flow from operating activities of $244k (p4)
- "In FY2017, we focused on establishing the fundamentals for sustainable growth. Considerable effort has been applied to internal processes to support growth and building capability for the future. (p5)
- "Dermatology (future focus) (p5)
- Recognise the potential of "BLIS®-containing functional food solutions" (p5)
- Recognise the potential of "BLIS®-containing pet applications and animal health solutions" (p5)
- "BLIS EliteProTM (high dose BLIS K12® targeted at athletes) launched, and ongoing collaboration with elite sports organisations (p6) (Missed that one Emearg?)
- "New [NZ] distributor relationships with Pacific Health targeting health practitioners and Henry Schein NZ for the professional dental channel (p6)
- "Early-stage evaluation of new food formats for one probiotic strain (p6)
- "Solid foundations for the future have been established and we have our cost base clearly defined for future sustainable profitable growth. With prudent investment, we believe there is a good balance between existing business support and pipeline development to realise the potential of our IP. (p7)
- "In the medium term, we expect meaningful sales from China, and from expanded market approvals in Australia and new
customer relationships globally. (p7)- "The Company is investing in the evaluation of new candidate strains in its pipeline. One strain (BLIS Q24 TM for skin applications) has progressed to the point of formulation trials. (p7)
- "Further advances through an early-stage clinical trial of a new strain (BLIS Q24TM) targeting skin applications (p6)
- "We expect that the new probiotic strain targeting skin applications will launch in the 2019 financial year. (p7)
- Website development cost $114k (p31)
- No new issue mentioned, working capital of 2.2m considered sufficient. (amended: p4 possible issue for more growth. Thanks, underworld.)
- No estimate provided for this year's revenue or profit.
The announcment, https://www.nzx.com/companies/BLT/announcements/301839
"During this financial year, the company will continue to invest in growth initiatives, delivering increased turnover and a profit.
"It is important to note that management and the board have undertaken a review of within market demand internationally. This review is providing us with confidence that there remains strong evidence of continued growth.
Somewhat more confident than last year, and the extra detail allows us to be somewhat more confident as well. Almost impossible to judge what to expect over what time scale though.
An update on the figures I put up recently adding the 2017 report. I added a few rows. Sourced from the last few annual reports available here https://blis.co.nz/investor-centre/a...ncial-reports/
(000s) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revenue 1161 1322 2631 5661 6547 Loss -1856 -1541 -1373 -816 -24 Net cash flow (ex finance) -1110 -1324 -1516 -919 -71 Total Op'ing Expenses 2959 2863 4004 6477 6571 - Cost of goods sold 527 585 935 1762 *1688 * New name but seems to be the same figures = Other expenses 2432 2278 3069 4715 4883 Capital expenses 467 348 421 408 315 From cash flow report Employee Benefits 697 878 1203 1671 2024 Shareholder equity 3490 * 6176 4803 3987 4017 * Included share issue Working capital 909 * 3753 2519 1927 2253 * Included share issue
I have checked the figures carefully, but check them yourself if relying on them. As usual, just my viewpoint, feel free to dispute it.
Thanks Simla.....I haven't had too much time to analyse the results so appreciate your homework. I agree things are beginning to look more positive. Nice to see the new managers making 'progress' and some interesting new product and market extensions. How all this impacts on next FY18 financials is going to be v interesting.
Disc; I've lowered my BLT exposure 25%, but retain 75% (happily well in the green zone.)
The biggest change for me was a sense that the company was getting on top of more of the detail. Last year's report left me with somewhat doubt that the company was really on top of everything (whether that was a fair reading or not we'll never know.) This report still didn't ooze confidence, but a continuation of this trend might be more reassuring next year? It is still all very difficult to read.
Only slight mention of costs and profit, that might have been a bold assertion that expenditure wasn't going to stop any time soon, but on the other hand might also have been a concession that balance with actual profit was also required. It was all such a very slight discussion (for a topic that surely leaps off the page from the last results) that it was impossible to be sure what was meant. Or as I read it anyway.
More reassuring than last year, but still difficult to know what to make of it.
Share price slipping presently. I suppose people did notice "in China as one of our prospective customers prepares for launch activity in FY2018. " This IS FY2018. Still, China is always hard to predict.