...17 and then to 18 bull
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I'm proposing a "scientific wager":
Similar to that of the Simon–Ehrlich wager: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%...3Ehrlich_wager
Background:
I was just having a look at the market cap of Z Energy, which as of today is $1.4B. It seems pretty large, especially considering that the stock has dropped so much recently. From a high of around $9, all the way down to $2.60 today. It got me thinking, in 20 or 30 years time, aren't all the cars on the road going to be electric? If so, why isn't this stock trading like it's Sky TV and going out of business?
The Wager
Here's the wager. Will satellite terrestrial TV outlive the gasoline car? In other words, will a significant amount of people still be using satellite TV when a significant amount of people are using electric cars, and therefore the need to fuel up with petrol is no longer necessary. Obviously, you're not going to get 100% of people driving electric cars and 0% of satellite and vice versa. But in general, will the average person still have a coaxial satellite connection with their TV, when the average person has an electric car?
The Stakes
In the year 2040: Loser has to either full up the winner car with a full tank of petrol or pay for one years of satellite television.
Any takers?
I'll be more specific:
I think satellite TV penetration (including Freeview) is about 50% of NZ households.
I think today 10% of new cars are electric in NZ.
So in the year 2040, will there be more satellite TV's than petrol cars in NZ households?
Interesting comparison Ogg. Goes to show how much energy you put into SKT :)
I believe satellite tv will be dead by 2040 or sooner. Elon is already building the Starlink network. And others will soon follow. This will eliminate the need for a physical connection for internet to household.
Similarly, electric or hydrogen which ever may be our future. Gasoline cars may go the cigarettes way. Get extremely expensive to run.
I am only saying satellite TV will die. Not Streaming.
I would be guessing if i had to pick one. Electric cars seemed far, but Elon closed the gap and changed people's perception in a very short time.
C'mon Ogg. Currently, there is no rationale on how some stocks are valued in the market. CBD for example and a few more.
SKT has over 900K paying subscribers. For any company with that sort of subscriptions and to still trade around .15c is just ridiculous.
Other from streaming, Heck for any large multinational this is a huge customer base to do anything with.
If they broke down their satellite customers to show how many of the 585K are streaming with Vodafone TV it would give a much clearer idea as to how long ‘traditional satellite pay tv’ is likely to go on for.
I would think that within 10 years the subscriber numbers will have dropped below the point where it no longer makes economic sense to continue offering the service.
But that is a pure guess - I don’t really have any idea.
Looking forward to Aussie v England cricket Thursday night ....series decider
I'll happily do either if I'm still around in 2040
IMO i think Satellite TV is likely to disappear earlier than gasoline vehicles. OPEC is still very powerful and will fight tooth and nail to keep the oil industry alive. Satellite TV industry doesn't have the same big backing. Also i feel as though streaming has matured more than electric vehicles at this stage. It's still not possible to drive from Auckland to Levin in one charge (correct me if i am wrong). Comparatively, streaming has had far more penetration in NZ and around the world.
"They say data is the oil of the 21st century, and to invest in data would be a wise method to generate ROI, but I believe there's an underappreciation for the extent to which the digital ad revolution is creating companies that have outstripped the size of even the largest oil giants of the 20th century.
While there are still decades during which this field will evolve, investing in companies at the heart of this trend will surely result in substantial returns for the decade ahead.
And Roku and Amazon are just two ways to play it!"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/437...content=link-0
No it's not as simple as that. EVs will soon be leaving ICEs in their wake both in terms of price and performance but car fleets take time to turn over. That said, there are lots of regulatory policies and incentives popping up all over the world for EV uptake, despite what the oil and gas lobby might want.
The thing that perhaps counts against satellite TV is that compared to car owners around the world there are relatively few decision makers - hundreds/thousands of pay TV operators vs. millions and millions of car owners. If pay TV operators see the economics of satellite wane, and have a ready alternative in internet streaming, they might all jump ship in the space of a few years, contractual arrangements (with the satellite companies) permitting. Presumably there's also some kind of death spiral in terms of fewer and fewer pay TV operators paying for more and more of the satellite as the flight away from satellite occurs. This would just accelerate the shift away from satellite.
But ultimately, that doesn't worry me as a SKT shareholder too much. In fact the sooner they can abandon satellite and make a successful transition to a streaming platform the better really. As many posters have said here, it's all about how they execute against that in the face of competition from the Sparks, Amazons and Netflixes of the world.
jupiter selling down shareholding. only 154 million shares to go
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...810/330787.pdf
Yup - increased their shareholding but %tage down due to dilution from new shares issued.
lol must be due for some new glasses. anyway just finished reading sparks 3yr strategy and sport features high on there list. so they are not running away but looking to grow it
.......should revisit 16c again today?.....and hopefully end up above. Starting to feel like a degree of support is creeping in now.
It's good news that the largest shareholder isn't running for the doors and willing to continue to back management's turnaround plan.
Will they continue buying so they can get back up over 10% and get a front row seat at the takeover table?
https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/227594
Interest write up about Sky - including reference to being a potential takeover target by Discovery.
Just signed up to NBR and paid $30 to read the article.
Opened it up and then see all my content there...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
We need to get that article out to the Oz investors. They love the speculative stuff
The author is obviously lurking here.
Here's tomorrows follow up story.
The Infratil/Brooksfield point of view:
Quote:
I've been doing more extensive "Michael Burry" type research on the relationship between Sky TV and Infratil. I've compiled a narrative what I believe is an undeniable case for an imminent take over of Sky TV and a long term commercial plan that could potentially net Infratil a billion dollar profit or more within 5 years.
BE HOLD MY STRONGEST CASE YET FOR AN INFRATIL TAKE OVER OF SKY TV:
Firstly, a bit of background information. One of Infratil's best investments was in Royal Dutch Shell. For background information on this investment read NBR's article:
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/infrat...ment-bd-143411
Basically, Infratil bought the assets off Royal Dutch Shell and re-branded the new company into Z Energy. Infratil then subsequently floated the company on the NZX a few years later for a significant profit. The question is, why would Infratil re-brand "Shell", a well known brand in New Zealand, and change it to something different?
The answer is two fold. Firstly, and most importantly was because of financial reasons. It cost Infratil over $10m per year in intellectual property rights. This was one of the main reasons why they re-branded. See this source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post...o-be-renamed-Z
Secondly, it hindered the company's growth ability as it was restrained from the parent company who controlled the "rights" and direction of the brand. The use of the brand came with terms and conditions and therefore if Infratil wanted to float Shell on the NZX it needed to re-brand the company.
This brings me to Infratil's investment in Vodafone, a company that Infratil bought last year for EUR $2 billion, in a joint venture with global investment company Brooksfield Asset Management. The deal was finance with significant debt on both Infratil's and Vodafone's balance sheet. Stock analysts suspect that Infratil will float Vodafone in the near future, in a similar arrangement as Z Energy.
HOWEVER, Vodafone will have to be re-branded for an IPO to happen. So, the question is why haven't they re-branded yet? The answer, is that there are certain benefits for maintaining the brand, including support and shared commercial arrangements from the parent company. This is especially important in the first few years after it is sold, but eventually a re-branding will have to happen.
So the next question is, when they do decide to re-brand, what do they call the new company?... Z Phone, Red Mobile Company, Not The Spark Company? Yes folks, you read it here first, SKY TV WILL TAKE OVER VODAFONE!!! As nutty as that sounds, that's what will happen. The Vodafone brand will be gone in New Zealand and be another past relic, just like Bell South!
I suspect the two newly formed companies will be refloated on the NZX, sometime in the year 2024-2026. With the combined revenue, it will have a market capitalization near that of Spark. The profits for Infratil will be gigantic. And the best part is that it's all funded with debt.
I suspect Infratil will retain a holding after the IPO, and they will fully exit a few years later, just like they did with Z Energy.
I put a value of Sky today of 75c a share based on the above scenario playing out. But retail investors won't see any part of that as the company will be flogged off for a poultry 30c a share.
Just lol.
Good to see Susan Paterson buying a few...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/359855
Anyone know why the sell off today? I seriously thought everything was looking positive and we would see some positive price movement?
the crying baby pattern is forming , reversal of the highs today to close on the lows could bring out the cry babies tomorrow who sell to minimize there loss hence the cry baby term. i sold mine only good for a few pips
Just bots buying and selling to one another trying to influence the price.
Sharesies crowd definitely gone.
Current institutional investors not selling, no new institutional investors interested in the stock to push up the price.
I'm thinking that the stock trades here until something material is announced.
Another token Director buyin of $19k put yo money where yo mouth is!!
It would be funny if Handley bought $500k on market out of the blue. Takeover for sure...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
Probably get his brother to do it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Handley
Rugbypass Strengthen Digital Rugby Content with New Subscription Service.
Neil Martin, CEO of RugbyPass, has announced that the company - bought by Sky Sports New Zealand in August 2019 - have launched a new subscription service called The XV (http://www.thexv.rugby) in a move to strengthen their place at the vanguard of digital rugby content. “Sky Sports NZ acquired RugbyPass because they believed in our long-term vision for the development of the game, and as part of that ambitious strategy comes the unveiling of our new subscription product, The XV. https://www.prweb.com/releases/rugby...eb17391259.htm
I think there is an issue...tried to start my free trial...registered, entered my payment details...and keep getting an "unknown error" when I try to complete the final submit.
Not a great start! Ha!
Damn, there look like some good articles on there that I want to read too...
Looks like my NBR sub has paid for itself:
nbr.co.nz/story/spark-aims-boost-fixed-wireless
"Spark would also continue to concentrate on bundling with the likes of Netflix and Spark Sport to attract customers, Fullarton said."
Seems we will flutter around the 15c mark for the remainder of this week. Nice anchor at 15c though
It’s good news when you consider that there’s 400 million odd rugby fans out there. If after 12 months they had 1,000,000 subscribed, about 50% of their audience, that’s an extra 30 million just on subscription revenue without any other premium content. And stats are vital for anyone who gambles on rugby.
Wonder if any NZ subscribers will be dropping Netflix for NEON? :D
https://movieweb.com/cuties-netflix-...eSNULIIoMrIem8
Doubt it'll make a dent. The "woke" kids these days are quite selective when it comes to being "woke", they'll only apply the cancel culture when it doesn't impact themselves.
Further more, 1 account is probably being shared amongst 4 family members, imagine a 20 something year old making demands to their mum to cancel her netflix, coz it's "the right thing to do to protest" :D
We dropped Netflix a few months ago as we'd watch everything we felt was worthwhile. We'll probably pick it up again in a few months time when new features are released, but I suspect COVID will impact production on all platforms.
We're going to pick up Neon for a while as there are some shows on there have piqued our interest.
More Rugby non the way.. would this be covered on Sky sports or Rugby pass? Or both?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/new...ectid=12365676
Who's buying all this stock at 0.154?... Sure ain't any Sharesies user.
F f f ff f
You're not Faa wrong
He loves his first fifteen rugby, that boy.
My god, it actually went through. Thought it was a fake order....
https://media.tenor.com/images/cf9f1...13e5/tenor.gif
Yes, half the days volume in last trade, 15.9c,
Its whats known as the Faafoi effect.
Ogg's brokered a deal, on behalf of the rest of us.