Many reasons why they might sell their shares, only one reason they buy.....
Printable View
Your mate Nick bought some more at $4.10 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...420/356330.pdf
Jeez he only had 20,000 before this (from 2019) and bought 50,000 the other day
Couldn't been too confident in outcomes of his strategy up to now but now he's going big....what confidence
You've got more than this no doubt ....I'm not quite there
But then Nick happy with his $2 million soon to be $3 million pay packet
3.80 was mentioned , topping up there? since the market doesnt believe the div will keep going. What happens when in 4 years time it does keep going... what then?
with nz moving to a living with covid strategy and rate rises coming tomorrow i think retail might not be as strong as this year going forward. time will tell
He bought 24,424 this morning @ $4.10. Probably looked at the new average target price of analysts of $4.45 or the highest analyst at $4.70 https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...364/consensus/ and thought, what could possibly go wrong here because I'm in charge !
Just as well TWG is BIG and will survive as a third of (smaller) retailers don’t think they will survive the next twelve months
Punters need to shop somewhere ….go to the Warehouse etc
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...CDYG4IK5HAK7A/
This time NZ folks especially the ones who shop mainly at WHS are in deeper trouble then before financially too ....So I wont be betting big on big improvements in sales after we become normal ( which is going to be different now as we decided to live with Covid ) . If WHS can keep similar levels of revenues and improve margins from efficiency and cost saving that will be the best outcome ahead . Maintaining eps thus dividends is the key
Alokdhir says ‘This time NZ folks especially the ones who shop mainly at WHS are in deeper trouble then before financially too ....So I wont be betting big on big improvements in sales after we become normal’
I’m tending to agree with that view …signs are out there, esp post Xmas
And further margin expansion after last years great effort is problematical.
Just keeping an open mind and not being totally carried away with the hype …
If they keep EPS at this level and improve efficiency the share price will go up.
Im sure MR B would be very happy with this Div level.
In 2 year's a new round of vaccines mod's could tip the battle in the human favour.
Yes it looks like there is a bigger number of non team members than the govt thought.
biggest city in the country in level 2-3 for another 8 weeks at least.
Imagine if they cant control it? Level 2.5 till when?
it will impact spending once government runs out of sub's...
they stopped the current game plan because the government running out reserve rain day funds.
Moving to a 'living with covid' strategy is going to see services sectors struggle over the next 6-12 months in my opinion. This may also impact retail, however people should have more money to spend in retail as it won't be spent on services.
I don't expect to see massive sales or margin growth over the coming years as headwinds are certainly appearing. However, even if the bottom line is maintained at current levels the SP right now is still cheap.
" SP right now is still cheap"
market will want to see actual numbers on this one but if and when that SP should move up a lot...
Living with Covid
Good posts that nicely encapsulate the outlook ahead and risks. Market screener has the average analyst at $126m for FY22 which is 37 cps which seems like a fair and reasonable estimate to me and puts WHS on a forward PE of 11 which is consistent with a low growth company which is what the analysts are predicting in the years ahead with eps slowly growing to 38 and 40 cents in FY23 and FY24 respectively.
Analyst consensus price target of $4.45 feels about right but this is a 12 month price target and Waltzing has nicely articulated the risks. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...64/financials/
Downgrade to Hold
The current share price level seems fairly balanced to me in terms of risk v reward and I have downgraded to hold and recently adjusted my portfolio allocation accordingly.
Yes a Hold... but who did not buy total holdings below 3.70 and some well below, will be sitting on big gains already.
When the EPS comes in at or above forecast and this Div holds, the scramble will be on for the laggards and the Beagles will be sitting pretty.
Ha ha Beagle made my day big time
It seems he's been selling shares to Nick ....maybe even to Chair Joan
Well done - insiders buying not always a good sign
Thanks mate. As you know, one key advantage retail investors have in the lead up to an annual result announcement is they can still buy, whereas insiders will be in a close out period. I imagine they would have loved to buy at ~ $3.50 in the lead up to the result not at over $4 afterwards and LOL yes I can confirm that the same morning the CEO Nick declared he bought at $4.10 I sold a parcel at that price and the same day Joan (Chair) bought some at $4.11 I also sold some at that price.
Still holding a moderate stake in WHS and HLG.
Not forgetting 17.5c and 3.088c div x 18th nov
I would caution leaning in to heavily on relying on the overall retail sector growth expectations for evaluating future WHS income prospects.
The vast majority of the increase in WHS huge profit growth has come from internal optimization efforts rather than the broad nationwide retail growth environment.
JT makes a fair point about the forthcoming dividend and the fact its cum such a sizeable dividend isn't lost on me but it hasn't gone unnoticed that there appears to be an element on conditionality around that dividend. Also, WHS has a precedent of cancelling a dividend due to covid in the past so its not an absolute certainty in my opinion.
I also note that trading down 22% year to date is a fairly serious situation and the comment regarding the cash burn I am sure wasn't missed by anyone on here.
Looking further ahead analysts are predicting dividends of 27 cps for FY22 which is (27 / 0.72) 37.5 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits and represents a gross yield of 9.1% on a share price of $4.10 or on a look through the pending dividend, assuming its paid, to theoretical ex divvy price of ($4.10 - 17.5 cps) = $3.925 the gross yield is 37.5 / 392.5 = 9.6% which is a compelling yield (assuming they can actually afford to pay it).
The thinking behind my move to a hold is that the widespread malaise being felt across the Auckland region at present will eventually spread to the rest of N.Z. as the whole country has to come to terms with living with Covid.
a reminder that when they gave that “down 22%” report, and when they announced the dividend - that the time the “down 22%” applies to included:
- 2 weeks when the entire country was in level 4 and WHS had zero revenue (down 100% y-o-y),
- an additional 3 weeks of Auckland being in level 4 (so no revenue from Auckland during that time)
- and a week of Auckland and rest of country in level 3.
Given most of the country has had retail open and operating as per usual in level 2 for a month now, and Auckland being in level 3 and soon to open retail in “level 3/phase 2” of “reopening” - I think the chances of the dividend being cancelled are slim.
Most will be able to collect there Div at under 3.50 which makes the yield for them fabulous.
"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October. The record date
for the dividend will be 18 November 2021 and will be paid on 3 December 2021"
Unfortunately investors have been left in a position where they:-
a) Have to make their own best guess of whether they think this assumption will come to pass or not
b) Interpret the word "predominantly" in the context of the wider Auckland's region's population being over 1.6m, approx one third of N.Z.'s population)
c) Make their own best guess of what happens if this assumption proves to be more hopeful than reality.
Anyone's guess what happens but as mentioned above they have previously declared a dividend in February 2020 and cancelled it in March 2021, (which is to the best of my recollection a first by any NZX listed company, certainly in my memory) AND they have mentioned the cash burn, (which at least to me read like a coded warning that if that continues and their assumption was materially wrong there was a risk of the dividend being cancelled / deferred).
Its anyone's guess whether large parts of N.Z. will be in level 2 or 3 by the end of this month.
at the rate the virus is moving its 50-/50 the div will be paid, as there appear to be people who just dont get it...but does it matter if it postponed.
2 cases out side of hamilton zone. For some reason this time the country just did not lock down hard enough.
Actually the "Root Cause" of this latest outbreak was at MIQ. The Govt and MoH did not have things tight enough so Case 1 caught it minding his own whist the carrier was to close. MIQ's should be at Military Bases not hotels. Govt's failure, NZ just pays the price. Learn to live with it as its here longer than we will be. Just like the WHS will be.
Well with the DIV possible in doubt , will it get a bashing down below 3.50?
and MIQ was the failure but they did not want to spend a billion building a virus proof facility... A modern Dubrovnik.
This Mayor says lockdown whole of North Island
Whst a bozo but you never know the PM might agree
PM likely to call a snap press conference soon methinks
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...KQHCBHMEZBKPI/
W(n) ->VOTELOCKDOWN = "YES";
WHS Div postponed, = share price bashing...
please get with the PROGRAM;
Never let a good crisis go to waste....or a Fake one..
With questions only allowed from Jessica and Tova. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQnFE246yU4
North Island total lockdown = N.Z. not predominantly in level 2. Hmmm...looks more and more like a 50/50 outcome on this divvy and last time the divvy was cancelled the subsequent special many, many months later was only half the normal size. Hmmm
Vaccines will be the saviour, encourage your friends etc to get it and get a 17c divvie in return.
Just got my second one this afternoon...feeling slightly second hand but not quite this bad lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Tap9Cf_7Y
"only half the normal size. "
well MR B may be right and then you might be able to buy some more at a much lower SP if your underweight.
The Bozo may have it right if there are large numbers of a demographic that has forgotten there is a virus.
The Waipa Mayor sits in a region that has almost got its owns conduct laws.
You have to understand how they think in the half gallon Quarter Acre Pavlova Paradise.
If your wheelie bin is not align correctly the street will notice and they "Know where you live". Even if in normal times your not actually there they THINK YOUR THERE.
Down on the farm and therefore as long as the milk tanker is turning into gates, the wheels of the economy is turning. Your town and city wheels can go home and stay there cause your not really working, just consuming.:cool:
Jeez, ANZ floating mortgage rate up to 4.44% and going higher in November ….petrol at local pump $2.47 (or $2.64 for stuff that goes in line trimmer)
That’ll take a decent chunk out of discretionary budgets or in investor terms put in dent in household balance sheets
Retail could be getting tough
Real terms its 1.14%.
Hopefully people are getting enough wage and salary increases.
Stocks have done very well.
"petrol at local pump $2.47 "
yes but in the biggest city they arnt driving out of town and soon Bozo will be ringing up wellieton.
retail budget will have another 8 weeks to build up cash and then they will need summer kit. Buckets and spades, EV bikes , sun glasses, sunblock and swim gear (HLG).
With interest rates on the rise its the Balanced portfolios that will Win.
the cancelled dividend in March 2020 was during peak fear when economists everywhere (including NZ) were predicting absolute doom with double digit unemployment, a large housing market crash and prolonged economic recession. None of those factors are remotely in play anymore.
I do however agree with you that the wording from WHS is open to interpretation.
doubtful - they didn’t even add the two towns yesterday to the “soft” level 3 restrictions, just said they would “monitor the situation”. No one would have cared or been surprised if they had extended lockdown boundary to those two locations, which adds to the evidence that level 3 lockdowns are increasingly unlikely in future. I wouldn’t be surprised at some more level 3 additions in the short term though, but maybe be more of the level 3/step 1 or 2 variety like Auckland is going through.
Personally I’m ok with that - if the morons refusing to get vaccinated haven’t done so by end of October I have no sympathy for them if they end up dead (I think most kiwis feel the same way to be honest)
as soon as CV got into the criminal fraternity (gangs) all hope of elimination was lost as they just ignored lockdown restrictions to keep their core services going (drug distribution and prostitution). Zero surprise they were also the reason Covid escaped Auckland boundary.
right because the massive slowdown in money spent on holiday & hospitality spending is going to just be piling up in everyone’s savings accounts because people are going to reverse a century of consumerism habits with all that extra cash available and aren’t going to be buying huge amounts of things for themselves, their houses and their kids (you know, all the things they have been doing already over the last 18 months).
FYI - S&P 500 is just a few percent off it’s all time high, I think it’s a bit premature to be saying it’s “pretty obvious that the bull run in global equities is coming to an end”.
Open to interpretation - to the extent of how much more 'The Group’s cash deposits have reduced significantly since balance date' and as a consequence whether they can handle a $61m cash outflow for the dividend ....or how much desire to use the funding facilities available.
Wonder how the planned $135m capital send is progressing
[Red Shed at Lyall Bay had a few in it this morning including a few noisy kids ....Noel Leeming hadn't seen any customers before me so the staff were tidying up the shelfs
Maybe most punters out getting the vax
Currently doing my research over last couple of weeks before getting a new TV (getting to know all the model/technology differences and pricing etc), before pulling the trigger probably during the black Friday sales. Have noticed Noel Leeming seem to almost have a Briscoes style pricing system at present (at least on the TVs) - high “standard” pricing, but deep discounts for sale days/weeks. They just finished up a big sale a few days ago, 2 stores I went too during last weekend were absolutely packed (Lower Hutt & Tory st), but when I visited a week ago and again yesterday (granted those were traditionally slow for retail Wednesdays) the stores were almost empty.
I admire your optimism. If you look at the macro situation both here and abroad the list of pressures on the wider economy is pretty long. Equities are overvalued and a correction is well overdue. WHS is not immune - and due to it's cyclical nature will be hit harder than more defensive stocks. Good luck holding is all I can say.
Sure many investors will be waiting to buy more.
Blood in streets...
Lay it down under fire.
Sky's falling. China contagion, war, pestilence and plague.
oh lets not forget the local problem.
Buy if it goes under 3.50, lots.
Same goes for MHJ, if under .80.
Dont forget HLG if under 6.
:t_up:
I don’t discount a fall in stock prices, but what is my main motivator for my WHS holdings is not the share price but actual fundamentals.
Even if share prices head south, as long as the underlying company is still generating high net income and that translates to continued high dividends then I couldn’t care less what the market sentiment is towards the stock price.
So in my mind the underlying rationale for sustained consumer spending in the year ahead (diverted discretionary spending from travel & hospitality, in a low unemployment environment) remains intact, and so will underlying retail strength, and that will continue to flow through to strong dividends. WHS happens to also be in the midst of enjoying all its internal efficiently gains from recent restructure and logistics/infrastructure transition program, which is why it is my preferred retail holding.
Yep .. only US default can derail it or extreme events.
Red Sheds sales have only grown at 2% pa over the last years when core retail sales have grown at more than 5% pa
Basically a continuation of many many years of Red Sheds losing market share
Says to me the Red Sheds don't have the offer what many NZers want or are not keeping with changing trends ....bad retailing basics
Important as Red Sheds about half of Group sales
Two important things to note with the red sheds though:
1: their profitability has significantly increased
2: their sales per square foot has also significantly increased as they have significantly shrunk the total square footage (The warehouse stationary stores-within-a-stores revenue is not counted in red shed revenue, so all those red sheds with a SWAS have had a big reduction in square footage while also still managing to grow their revenue, and sharply reducing their expenses). Plus they are also closing stores, further reducing their sales footprint.
I’ll take middling sales growth from a reduced sales footprint and cost base (leading to massive profit growth) any day of the week.
Attachment 13050
WHS VS BRIS EBIT space comparison would be interesting.
A very impressive result for Red Sheds last year
and sales per sqm did increase to $3.659 from $3,410 pcp - a 7% increase .... impressive
But in a years time that table won't look that impressive - i'd say modest if any sales growth and reduced margins leading to a 20% plus reduction in Operating Profit
You heard it here first
Hope Noel Leeming pull the Group through in F22
If WHS did not benefit from the boom in retail then what would bring about a 20 percent reduction in NP.
Margins? cost of goods sold?
or Freight?
Im think that huge tome... Principals of Cost Accounting. nth Edition.
Years back there was an interesting financial book called "The Millionaire Next Door." The gist of the book was, the guy with the fancy car, wife with the expensive jewelry, and country club membership was probably not the rich guy, although he sure wants everyone to think that. The REAL rich guy is more likely to be driving a ten year old car, living in a nice but modest home, and not showing off his wealth at all.
So why am I bringing this up?
I've seen some comments on here about who does and doesn't shop at the Warehouse and I think it relates. Often being a good saver, being frugal, and shopping around for value is EXACTLY how a person gets rich. I buy a lot of long sleeve Merino shirts. They are 35 dollars at the Warehouse. They are $100 at Katmandu, I'm really okay with wearing the Warehouse version as opposed to the "label" version that no one else will ever see anyway. I think this applies to a number of things a person would purchase. Sure there is sometimes (but not always) a difference in quality at the high and low ends of the retail spectrum, but I suspect it is often also about ego and vanity.
I know for me, I would normally spend maybe 20k a year traveling overseas. That money will not be spent on travel this year (nor was it spent on travel last year). Turning towards retail spending on hobbies, renovation, etc. is kind of all I've got right now.
And let's be honest, we're not going anywhere for a while. This country's "travel" response to Covid is a disaster. I hate when people try and spin this. The way MIQ has been handled? It's a disaster. Terrible for those of us with wanderlust. Good for the Warehouse.
So larger market forces aside, people really have no choice but to spend their money here at home. Even options like Amazon and eBay take forever with current shipping delays. These are the cards we've been handed right now.
I once heard it said that if you gave everyone in the world a million dollars, the same people would be rich and the same people would be poor in a few years. I can't say I disagree. People at ALL ends of the spectrum will continue to pump their money into the Red Sheds for at least another year. Probably more like two.
Happy to hold and wait out the people who have predicted 25 of the last two corrections.
"analyst forecasts of F22 profit being down 28%"
yes but on what workings?
bit like forecasts from economists stated from posters.
did the get the retail spend right last April 2020?
Its all probability and employment is high, interest rates yes but full employment. Do they see stag fire alarm?
If your right then Aus and Euro tourism was the better bet and still is.
Didnt analysts get the WHS result wrong?
They were 10% under on the MHJ result.
Not sure on BRG or HLG?
Overall analysts could be too bearish on retail. Like Cymonger says above. Lots of spending still to fall into the retail bucket.
The more time the home owner sits around not driving anywhere the more detail they absorb. Everything from gardening shows to baking...
They notice and think maybe move it here, there or something new over there. Any stats on gardening stores.
Did you place an order with that young builder across the way after lock down when you saw how well his own renovation went. He had to stay at home in level 4 and went to work on his own list.
The person who never even had a list might have one now. Oh that's people who usually travel!
Well level 3 for everyone until tuesday in the waka too.
Central North island Town traffic busy in the Waka too. No panic to see there.
Anyone waking up to CNBC this morning. And level 3 means no travel today.
Big expo on freight all the way from china to trucking goods across the retail US chain.
Added freight surcharge added to the invoice.
Retailers here may face these added costs and a portion of W(n) reduction in NPAT could come from this as well as more interest rate rises.
Brain Fellow this morning questioning the timing of the rate increases.
Yeap watched the segment on Macy's on a PE of less than 8 with its well developed online systems. WHS on a PE of 11 is not cheap by comparison.
Bris interim report out lets see what the shoppers been up to.
People are catching up with the trend ....Now 3.80 doesn't look that far away ....
"Now 3.80"
surely most under that as a buy of over 3.70 was getting a head of the next 12 months.
Share price not going under 4 bucks is it?
Need a late run on Friday afternoon
36k orders at $4 to break through first.
Which will double in price first OCA or WHS.
Not same sector but as mention OCA 3 dollars in 10 years.
Say your AVE price is 3 dollars 3.50.
No stagflation and WHS continues to pay DIV above 4.5% Net.
OCA takes 10 years.
Bets on WHS getting there in half that time frame.
In my opinion OCA. The business model of the retirement sector is all about encapsulating capital growth and its very well proven. RYM worth more than 55 times what it listed for in the late 1990's, SUM worth more than 11 times its listing price late 2011.
Sadly for WHS not only is the Waikato in level 3 lockdown, now also Northland. Rule busters revolt. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...65DVAXTKHUPTU/
Only a matter of time before the whole country is in level 3 in my opinion. Unfortunately the sad reality is the forthcoming dividend is looking less and less likely with each passing day as WHS burns through more cash.
The directors reassuring us that their credit lines were intact despite the cash burn. Surely everyone realises and I don't need to say it but in case its not perfectly obvious already, this is "code" speak for the cash burn rate is serious.
The board kowtowing to political pressure regarding Covid subsidies even before its applied and making assumptions about the length of the lockdown and the strength of the bounce-back, (I'm certain they're going to be wrong on both counts) is too much politically correct ESG garbage for this dog to stomach so I'm out.
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
No...whew!!
Attachment 13062
AUS is reaching its Vac targets faster than anticipated. If Auckland can get to 90 percent then the doom and gloom anticipated for the markets might be averted.
Motor way pretty empty south of Cambridge. There's the sound of sirens and loud motorbikes.
I agree with MR B that with northland out of action there are possible repercussions. One expert now says he was expecting level 4 for northland.
There are no locations of interest south of Hamilton yet.
The November dividend might well be paid as a special in febuary 2022.
The board probably wont make that decision this coming week. They will wait until they see if Hamilton, BOP are in level 2 and Northland case numbers are not increasing.
Warning: Not processed for preposition and participle policing standards.
Note: All flags are set to off.
BoD, stop with the guessing game, be decisive and make provision for dividend. We shareholders have mortgages to pay and living expenses but unlike employees and yourselves do not get wage subsidy or income insurance to cover lost any dividend income.
Chair Joan featured in BusinessDesk My Net Worth this week
Hard life when young blah blah blah …and bad memories of being. Feltex Director
Important to look the part …never scrimp on clothes she says
Always been impressed how resplendent Joan looks
Betcha she don’t buy from Warehouse …(and not even Glassons)
The BOP spread is a false alarm with the auckland individual now testing negative.
You got all the medical people saying dont go any farther with opening up Auckland.
If there was a sports betting option on Level alerts you could take a punt winner(n).
WHS will go on paying dividends in the coming years ahead.
In the long term OCA should outperform based on RYM's and SUM's past performance.
But they will not pay as high a dividend as the retailers.
Oca should remain impervious to cyclical swings in the economy, if house prices remain stable.
WHS into NZX50 when ZEL drops out?
Ardern This morning:
”Ardern said while the Government wanted to reach a 90 per cent-plus vaccination target before it lifted restrictions, it didn't mean they couldn't make small moves to ease restrictions, such as allowing retail stores to open before then.”
There is confusing over the step system versus a lighting system versus a level system.
Its starting to look like musical chairs.
In the mean time panic selling could see MR B take a position in feb if the price drops to 3 dollars.
At least its a sunny day in the BOP and surfs up!
auckland could easily be in lockdown till next year some time level 3 or 4. so maybe div,s next yr might be affected more than this one
Happy to have a rest and see what happens in 2022. https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&ajaxserp=0
I agree with winner. Europe almost back to normal. Oz opening up. Auckland s vacs rates getting up there 85% one dose and 60% two. In another month we should be getting close to be able to rip back into it.(cautiously) :)
"so maybe div,s next yr might be affected more than this one"
they can cut the DIV a long way and it's still Net 5.
Anyone selling over 4.20 and with a base of 3.50 will have made a killing.
Vaccination rates are climbing in Aus far faster than predicted. The chart models for vaccination rates was under estimated by a long way. It appears that the level of education is high enough in the population base that over 90 could well be reached before xmas.
If WHS holds it nerve and pays then you might well be able to take the DIV and SELL for a profit as the share prices bounces in the new year. You get imputation credits as well.
Remember the government will have to open the tap values this week to calm the nerves of retailers and hospitality. Expect Grant to address those fear some time this week.
Your alpha waves are being swamped by gamma at this point in the crisis.
Anyone who shoots at the Olympic level and has trained in Europe or the US will know how this works.
Its also why a certain NZ competitor has take so long to win a Gold. Not a gyroscope in the head. If you do the geometric analytics you will see how off balance she is when she applies power. If Biles took off on her vault with this variation she would land off the matts.
Soros knew what he was doing long before the science was in on the subject.
yep sold in the mid 4.20s as i said 4.30 was the high for this mth , will be looking to re-enter soon once more clarity around covid and lock-downs
well yes a lower price would be good for reinvesting the dividend in WHS, which I’ll probably do. In fact if it could drop to a share price of 0.01c on the day I receive the dividend cash that would be great thanks. It would be welcome to remain at the share price of 0.01 in perpetuity as long as it keeps paying me dividends.
"We could see WHS share price $5 in a month or so"
oh dear ....
anyone seen that photo of flipped car on southern motor way will now know there is no escape from leaky border at speed.
NSW freedom day for fully vaccinated.
Panic selling gives you the best opportunities.
Chairwoman and CEO happy to buy at $4.10. Gee if it goes $3.70 that would be a gift