waltzing man -- consistent with analyst forecasts of F22 profit being down 28% on F21
But why worry as consensus target is now $4.45 .... that's good
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Years back there was an interesting financial book called "The Millionaire Next Door." The gist of the book was, the guy with the fancy car, wife with the expensive jewelry, and country club membership was probably not the rich guy, although he sure wants everyone to think that. The REAL rich guy is more likely to be driving a ten year old car, living in a nice but modest home, and not showing off his wealth at all.
So why am I bringing this up?
I've seen some comments on here about who does and doesn't shop at the Warehouse and I think it relates. Often being a good saver, being frugal, and shopping around for value is EXACTLY how a person gets rich. I buy a lot of long sleeve Merino shirts. They are 35 dollars at the Warehouse. They are $100 at Katmandu, I'm really okay with wearing the Warehouse version as opposed to the "label" version that no one else will ever see anyway. I think this applies to a number of things a person would purchase. Sure there is sometimes (but not always) a difference in quality at the high and low ends of the retail spectrum, but I suspect it is often also about ego and vanity.
I know for me, I would normally spend maybe 20k a year traveling overseas. That money will not be spent on travel this year (nor was it spent on travel last year). Turning towards retail spending on hobbies, renovation, etc. is kind of all I've got right now.
And let's be honest, we're not going anywhere for a while. This country's "travel" response to Covid is a disaster. I hate when people try and spin this. The way MIQ has been handled? It's a disaster. Terrible for those of us with wanderlust. Good for the Warehouse.
So larger market forces aside, people really have no choice but to spend their money here at home. Even options like Amazon and eBay take forever with current shipping delays. These are the cards we've been handed right now.
I once heard it said that if you gave everyone in the world a million dollars, the same people would be rich and the same people would be poor in a few years. I can't say I disagree. People at ALL ends of the spectrum will continue to pump their money into the Red Sheds for at least another year. Probably more like two.
Happy to hold and wait out the people who have predicted 25 of the last two corrections.
"analyst forecasts of F22 profit being down 28%"
yes but on what workings?
bit like forecasts from economists stated from posters.
did the get the retail spend right last April 2020?
Its all probability and employment is high, interest rates yes but full employment. Do they see stag fire alarm?
If your right then Aus and Euro tourism was the better bet and still is.
Didnt analysts get the WHS result wrong?
They were 10% under on the MHJ result.
Not sure on BRG or HLG?
Overall analysts could be too bearish on retail. Like Cymonger says above. Lots of spending still to fall into the retail bucket.
The more time the home owner sits around not driving anywhere the more detail they absorb. Everything from gardening shows to baking...
They notice and think maybe move it here, there or something new over there. Any stats on gardening stores.
Did you place an order with that young builder across the way after lock down when you saw how well his own renovation went. He had to stay at home in level 4 and went to work on his own list.
The person who never even had a list might have one now. Oh that's people who usually travel!
Well level 3 for everyone until tuesday in the waka too.
Central North island Town traffic busy in the Waka too. No panic to see there.
Anyone waking up to CNBC this morning. And level 3 means no travel today.
Big expo on freight all the way from china to trucking goods across the retail US chain.
Added freight surcharge added to the invoice.
Retailers here may face these added costs and a portion of W(n) reduction in NPAT could come from this as well as more interest rate rises.
Brain Fellow this morning questioning the timing of the rate increases.
Yeap watched the segment on Macy's on a PE of less than 8 with its well developed online systems. WHS on a PE of 11 is not cheap by comparison.
Bris interim report out lets see what the shoppers been up to.
People are catching up with the trend ....Now 3.80 doesn't look that far away ....
"Now 3.80"
surely most under that as a buy of over 3.70 was getting a head of the next 12 months.