I remain baffled that the dominant research philosophy practiced by AIR holders with regard to the airline industry appears to be Wishful Thinking.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
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I remain baffled that the dominant research philosophy practiced by AIR holders with regard to the airline industry appears to be Wishful Thinking.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I remain baffled that you keep jumping in here with such comments. From a senior member such as yourself I would have thought you held yourself to a higher standard that poking a stick around again and again with pointless and unconstructive comments. Perhaps PT you could take my comment on board and find the dignity becoming someone of the obvious high standing you consider yourself to be.
I have found a lot of the informative considered posts you have amassed to be beneficial on many an occasion but as a person on here with no bias perhaps you will give my comment above due consideration...... or perhaps not.....
I find these comments useful although I can understand holders may not enjoy reading them.
Sometimes I read the AIR thread and think "wow, what a great opportunity", and other times I think "why go there".
We need all points of view to have an robust discussion and at the rate this thread moves we need regular comments from both sides.
Personally I've traded AIR once and got out with a small profit, but this stock is a complete mystery to me and I think there are better options that require less crystal-ball gazing.
Just my two cents.
There's useful informative counter arguments that make for an interesting and lively debate and then there's Plain Trolling. There's a clear difference.
There's an element of doubt in all companies future performance, some more than others as is the case here. The thing for investors to debate in a healthy robust way is whether that element of doubt is already sufficiently reflected, (maybe over or under) in the forward PE of about 4.6 whereas other airlines who are also facing extra competitive and yield pressures are generally trading on forward PE's of around 6.
Analysts know nothing right PT ?
Average analyst forecasted earnings before tax for FY17 is $749m Average forecast earnings 47.8 cps Forward PE at $2.19 = 4.58 Average forecast dividend yield 9.57% fully imputed = 13.3% gross.
Yeap, I'm basing my investment in AIR on wishful thinking, thin AIR and blind hope LOL. Even if earnings are 30% lower than average analyst forecast, (which I think they will be), the investment case is still very sound in my opinion.
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
Spot the trend here, competition has an effect.
All yields for the financial year to date,
Nov-15 Group-wide yields were down 4.5%
Dec-15 Group-wide yields were down 4.6%
Jan-16 Group-wide yields were down 4.9%
Feb-16 Group-wide yields were down 4.7%
Mar-16 Group-wide yields were down 5.3%
Apr-16 Group-wide yields were down 5.5%
May-16 Group-wide yields were down 5.5%
Jun-16 Group-wide yields were down 5.7%
You might like to consider the monthly cost of jet fuel consumed as it came down and AIR's previous expensive fuel hedges came off, their average cost in the first half was circa $U.S.60 barrel. If such information were available you'd probably find their net profit from operations remained broadly consistent....probably why despite these yield reductions they've retained their profit forecast before unusual items of $800m before tax. Fuel is roughly 20% of their operating cost so if the cost has halved from the previous year, (they locked in maximum allowable hedging at very close to the bottom of the oil cycle in January around U.S$30 barrel) surely its not all that difficult to understand they're making excellent money notwithstanding the yield decline. At the risk of being Dogmatic people might like to consider if a super low forward PE of only 4.6 covers an absolute multitude of potential competition evil's !
BB you should stop passing off your time expired uneaten jellymeat to other cats, its no good for them.
Roger we both look at AIR differently at this part of the business cycle, you put more importance on the fuel cost reduction, some of us see group yields and competition a more important measure. This makes the market :).
Delta's yields were down 7% year on year in July which shocked the market and yet they still trade on a forward PE of 6, Hmmm. That's with heaps of extra competition from the Govt owned sand airlines encroaching on their territory. No love lost between Qatar and Delta I tell ya. They fight like cats and dogs. http://travelskills.com/2016/04/18/d...atar-quandary/
I just read(at the dentist office in Thailand,yesterday)that Thai air has made a loss due to new competition from discount airlines----food for thought.
disc. they are one of the best Ive flown with,but you cant beat cheap, sometimes.---We flew MAL --they were good,with great service--had to layover in KL,which was the only downside(a few extra hrs to get to Bkk---Thai is direct)--but with a savings of $500 it was worth it.