Not forgetting 17.5c and 3.088c div x 18th nov
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Not forgetting 17.5c and 3.088c div x 18th nov
I would caution leaning in to heavily on relying on the overall retail sector growth expectations for evaluating future WHS income prospects.
The vast majority of the increase in WHS huge profit growth has come from internal optimization efforts rather than the broad nationwide retail growth environment.
JT makes a fair point about the forthcoming dividend and the fact its cum such a sizeable dividend isn't lost on me but it hasn't gone unnoticed that there appears to be an element on conditionality around that dividend. Also, WHS has a precedent of cancelling a dividend due to covid in the past so its not an absolute certainty in my opinion.
I also note that trading down 22% year to date is a fairly serious situation and the comment regarding the cash burn I am sure wasn't missed by anyone on here.
Looking further ahead analysts are predicting dividends of 27 cps for FY22 which is (27 / 0.72) 37.5 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits and represents a gross yield of 9.1% on a share price of $4.10 or on a look through the pending dividend, assuming its paid, to theoretical ex divvy price of ($4.10 - 17.5 cps) = $3.925 the gross yield is 37.5 / 392.5 = 9.6% which is a compelling yield (assuming they can actually afford to pay it).
The thinking behind my move to a hold is that the widespread malaise being felt across the Auckland region at present will eventually spread to the rest of N.Z. as the whole country has to come to terms with living with Covid.
a reminder that when they gave that “down 22%” report, and when they announced the dividend - that the time the “down 22%” applies to included:
- 2 weeks when the entire country was in level 4 and WHS had zero revenue (down 100% y-o-y),
- an additional 3 weeks of Auckland being in level 4 (so no revenue from Auckland during that time)
- and a week of Auckland and rest of country in level 3.
Given most of the country has had retail open and operating as per usual in level 2 for a month now, and Auckland being in level 3 and soon to open retail in “level 3/phase 2” of “reopening” - I think the chances of the dividend being cancelled are slim.
Most will be able to collect there Div at under 3.50 which makes the yield for them fabulous.
"The Board is pleased to announce a fully imputed final dividend of 17.5 cents per share. The final dividend has been
declared on the assumption that New Zealand is predominantly at Level 2 from the end of October. The record date
for the dividend will be 18 November 2021 and will be paid on 3 December 2021"
Unfortunately investors have been left in a position where they:-
a) Have to make their own best guess of whether they think this assumption will come to pass or not
b) Interpret the word "predominantly" in the context of the wider Auckland's region's population being over 1.6m, approx one third of N.Z.'s population)
c) Make their own best guess of what happens if this assumption proves to be more hopeful than reality.
Anyone's guess what happens but as mentioned above they have previously declared a dividend in February 2020 and cancelled it in March 2021, (which is to the best of my recollection a first by any NZX listed company, certainly in my memory) AND they have mentioned the cash burn, (which at least to me read like a coded warning that if that continues and their assumption was materially wrong there was a risk of the dividend being cancelled / deferred).
Its anyone's guess whether large parts of N.Z. will be in level 2 or 3 by the end of this month.
at the rate the virus is moving its 50-/50 the div will be paid, as there appear to be people who just dont get it...but does it matter if it postponed.
2 cases out side of hamilton zone. For some reason this time the country just did not lock down hard enough.
Actually the "Root Cause" of this latest outbreak was at MIQ. The Govt and MoH did not have things tight enough so Case 1 caught it minding his own whist the carrier was to close. MIQ's should be at Military Bases not hotels. Govt's failure, NZ just pays the price. Learn to live with it as its here longer than we will be. Just like the WHS will be.