More positive mentions in the SST on the weekend. Reasonable open today on back of $152 tapis I suppose.
Momoho progress report today?
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More positive mentions in the SST on the weekend. Reasonable open today on back of $152 tapis I suppose.
Momoho progress report today?
While bankers are crying into their Krug and sharemarkets sink at every turn, one group can smile amid the wreckage - oil investors.
For several years oil prices have performed strongly, but particularly in the past six months oil has soared as sharemarkets fell. Having oil in your investment portfolio would therefore ease the pain of the current bear market considerably.
So how do you get some oil exposure in the New Zealand market?
The most direct way is by mimicking the professionals and investing in oil futures, available through Auckland-based broker OM Financial.
Futures are not for the faint-hearted or the uninformed, requiring a disciplined approach and careful risk management, but they give investors a first-hand experience of the oil market and a way to make money when shares are not doing well.
OM Financial has hundreds of clients trading oil futures and a related security, futures options. The firm offers advice on whether to buy or sell and charges a fee per contract of about $25.
It works something like this. An oil futures contract is a bet on what the price of oil will be on a specified time in the future. Each contract is for 1000 barrels of oil and requires the investor to place an initial margin set by the exchange, currently $US12,000 ($15,800). At a price of $US136 per barrel of light sweet crude, that $US12,000 initial margin covers a position of $136,000.
If you bought a future at $US136, say, and the price moved to $US140 within the specified time (giving a contract value of $US140,000), you would sell a future with the same expiry to close the position and pocket $US4000, a return of 33% on your initial margin.
Similarly, if you sold a future at $US136 and the price moved to $US132, you would buy a matching contract to close the position and pocket $US4000.
Of course, those returns would be losses if the price moved against you.
OM Financial head of derivatives Kevin O'Sullivan says investors don't have to stay up all night watching the markets, but care is required.
"Obviously with the volatility you need a strong stomach for it," he said. "It comes down to your money management and discipline, your stop-loss, take-profit deals."
Although futures allow you to take a view on the price of crude out to 2016 (the market currently says $US137.50 a barrel), there are fewer people taking positions on those contracts (less "open interest" in the jargon), so O'Sullivan advises clients to trade contracts where there is plenty of open interest, which makes it easier to close positions.
A useful alternative to futures is the market in contracts for difference, or CFDs. The main provider of CFDs in New Zealand is Auckland-based CMC Markets. It offers a contract, based on market- traded futures, of 100 barrels of crude - West Texas and Brent are the main contracts used - and a 1% initial margin. At $US136, that means the contract is worth $US13,600 and requires margin of $US136 - a less capital intensive way for small investors to play the market. CMC's offer differs from OM Financial futures in another way - it has no expiry so does not require closing out within a particular timeframe. But the buy/sell process is similar.
CMC Markets general manager Sargon Elias said crude oil CFDs had risen in popularity as the commodity had surged in price. "Since the drive in oil six to eight months ago it has often been in our top five traded instruments," he said. "There is a lot of interest. That whole debate about whether oil is driven up by speculators is quite close to our hearts. I still believe a lot of it is driven by fundamentals."
While CFDs offer a cheaper alternative to futures and can be traded online in real time, CMC offers no advice on what positions to take.
Aside from the futures and CFD markets, another way to gain exposure to crude prices is to trade shares in oil production companies. Two such investments currently on the radar for sharebroker First NZ Capital are New Zealand-listed NZ Oil & Gas and Australian-listed Oil Search, Papua New Guinea's largest oil and gas producer.
First NZ head of research Barry Lindsay said the firm's view was oil would fall from its current peak, "but will be sustained at a high price above $US100 for some time to come".
Firms such as NZ Oil & Gas and Oil Search were clear beneficiaries of high oil prices, he said.
No doubt that takes some of the pain away from filling up at the bowser
Wotsup? Sp is going gangbusters. Is there an announcement imminent?
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45872
From Friday's Fast Money program - click on the headliner item to get to the article and Youtube replay
Casa - not a response to your question, just a contribution to the cause
My guess is that supply from people who leveraged to convert options and then sold down to reduce leverage is trailing off, but probably more importantly the next week will see very interesting announcements on the momoho drill, and people will want to be on board for that one.
The dividend for the year was declared and paid yonks ago. So my pick is 5 cents. Lots of shareholders would prefer that they used their (our) cash for getting into good exploration and development projects.
The only problem is the ability to use the imputation credits arising from the royalties.
Don't give the cash back to me. Last time I spent quite a bit of it on booze and women, then squandered the rest.
Wasnt that a special dividend? I am quite certain another healthy dividend (for all you dividend hungry people) will be paid later this year. Also a possibility of a share buy back but not for the sake of it.
A interim dividend but the only one to be paid in this fy, so we will have to wait another 12 onths for next dividend .I think they have stated there will be an annual pay out if there is to be a dividend in respect of that fy.
From 10 July report - Over the coming week, the rig is expected to complete running and cementing the 9-5/8 inch casing, drill the 8-1/2 inch section and acquire wire-line
logs over the primary reservoir target (Farewell Formation).
Shouldnt we be on daily reporting by now, with a sniff of gas already announced, and about to drill thru the target zone ?
expect they have already drilled through the target zone as previous report based on 1400 nz time july 9 - 5 days and 8 hours ago.
no news is good news!
expect nzo would be keen to keep the market fully informed on a daily basis, but as origin control when information is released then nzo have to tow the line.
drilling reports for kupe being fine examples of origin's reporting.
M
"Production since 1 July 2008
Up to 13 July: Approx 400,000 barrels. NZOG's share of production approx 50,000 barrels.
NB:
"
I wonder if this includes the 13th? None the less, I've been keeping track of production on my NZO spreadsheet and it looks like production is back on track
Barrels since BD 150000 210000 400,000
July 6 8 13
Daily Av 25000 26250 30769.23077
They probably stopped work and had a mighty piss up on the night of the 30th of June to celebrate, then no one was available to pump oil for the next day or so :D
The late big move up today looks to me clearly to be in anticipation of positive Momoho news being imminent (maybe tomorrow?). I initially thought it was being at least partly driven by Friday night's rise in oil price, but this seems less likely having looked at the Aussie oilers, which were all either down or flat today.
The chart has also now well and truly done a technical bounce off support at $1.67-68, which was the previous (pre-option exercise) resistance level. Just an observation of a classic recurring pattern in TA - resistance becoming support...
OK what are people's picks for SP +ve and -ve movements depending on the news?
Just pulling a figure out of the air if there was say 5mb of condensate (or equiv) @ a net recovered price of say $100/b USD say $132 NZD is approx $100m to NZO, now discount that back and take off a bit for project risks etc and I'd say you'd have about 15c per share. So if there was probable reserves of 15mb equiv.... it would be a good day.
Downside? If it comes in dry I'd say 10-15c also, but recovered over time, the stock is cheap even with existing projects/cashflows IMHO.
Cheers
Mx, they had c/f losses to utilise, and did so before the cash machine began printing money :p:p
Stock of the week - New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZO)
Quote:
Company: New Zealand Oil & Gas
Code: NZO
Recommendation: Buy
Market Cap: $515m
The last few weeks have seen oil continue to break new highs above the $140/bl mark. Record high oil priceshave been blamed for the market’s slide to new lows, however they are proving a boom for up and coming oil producers such as New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZO).
The cash has started flowing through the doors following the start of production at the Tui Oil fields off the coast of New Zealand in July last year. The Tui oil fields project is the first stand-alone offshore oil development in New Zealand, and was fast-tracked into production only 4 years after its initial discovery. NZO has a 12.5% stake in the field which has thus far been producing well ahead of expectations. The field was originally estimated to contain reserves of 27million barrels, however the latest reassessment has upgraded the figure to over 50million. The higher than expected field size has been accompanied by stronger than expected production rates. Tui was originally forecast to produce 10m barrels in its first year, however by mid June 13.9m barrels had been filled.
For the six months to December these strong production numbers allowed the company to produce a net profit of $41.4m on the back of $95.5m in revenue. Tui revenues had advanced to $141.8m by the end of March, and with oil continuing to trade near record levels, we expect a ‘bumper’ full year earnings result.
In the oil game you’re only as good as your last discovery, because once an oil field is tapped, production typically declines as time progresses. NZO has factored in a sharp decline in production from Tui in 2009 followed by a gradual easing, but thus far, month on month production has shown no signs of decline.
However, in preparation, the company is advancing its solid pipeline of development assets such as the Kupe project. NZO originally discovered this gas and condensate field in 1986, however development was considered uneconomic until recently. New Zealand in the past has attained its gas supply from the rival Maui field, which brought large volumes and a relatively low, contract based domestic pricing regime. The potential for Kupe was recently invigorated as the Maui field entered into its decline, with the investment decision made in mid 2006.
NZO now has a 15% interest in the project, which is on track to begin production in mid 2009. The company’s share of 2P Reserves stands at 38PJ gas, 165 000 tonnes of LPG, and 2.2million barrels of light oil. In oil equivalent terms, production is forecast to offset the decline of Tui.
NZO's other significant asset is its 31% stake in ASX listed Pike River Coal (ASX code: PRC). Pike River is an emerging producer of high quality hard coking coal in New Zealand. First shipments are expected to commence in the first quarter of 2009, and the company recently locked in a record price of US$300/t for deliveries made up until the end of March 2009. Deliveries during FY09 are expected to total 200,000 tonnes, ramping up to 1m tonnes in 2010. At Pike River’s recent share price of $1.70, NZO’s shareholding is valued at just over $100m.
Strengthening the balance sheet even further in recent weeks has been a highly successful option conversion. The company had 139m options expiring at the end of June at a strike of $1.50. Despite the exercise price being a slight premium to the share price range of $1.20-$1.40 over recent months, shareholder support was very strong, with 92.5% of the options exercised to raise $150m – a significant capital injection indeed.
Given this strong cash position and asset backing, we favour the outlook for the stock and rate it a buy. From a technical perspective the share price appears bullish, teetering near record highs. A correction in the oil price is a key risk, as are production problems at Tui or Kupe. However, should the price of ‘black gold’ remain any where near current levels, we expect the stock to be re-rated. This will be as a result of its earnings capacity from Tui, developmental milestones at Kupe, and a ramp up in production at Pike River Coal.
Tim Morris is an analyst at wise-owl.com, one of Australia's leading independent stockmarket research houses.
http://www.compareshares.com.au/wise62.php
When was the article published Trackers? $1.70 for PRC is a bit out of date...
The market cap is closer to $700m than the $515m they quote.
Or are those AU$?
Bob C
It refers to PRC as ASX listed so its $A I assume, the researcher is Australia based too.
thanks to Digger, and my dart landing on 178,
i am in receipt of a liquor voucher which is burning a hole in my pocket -
open to suggestions , have in mind a bottle or two of Montana Camshorn Pinot Noir,
to put away to celebrate the next Nzo success, and perhaps a bottle of Glenfiddick
12yr old single malt to calm the nerves until then.... (surely duncan will approve)
thanks again Digger..... good bloke that bloke......
still nothing on momoho, 6 days and 10.5 hours since 1400 nz time on 9th.
still expect no news is good news, even though both org & nzo a bit lower today on asx.
M
Morning all
Although headline price of oil down I see Tapis up acouple of dollars to $154.02. Is this the price NZO and PPP always get?
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market...id=markets_oil
NZO down 5% so far this morning only goes to show that a falling tide takes all ships down regardless of fundamentals. All that cash rolling in still makes no difference when the herd makes a dash for the door. If the market crashes this will turn into one of the better road kills to pick up at bargain prices. PRC down 3.8% might be worth a punt in a few months time. Macdunk
Mackdunk,
last night Oil had its biggest one day Dollar term fall in 17 years...
NZO's fall was not to be totally unexpected...
NZO fell today on fundamentals mate, NZO has been blanketed by much of the market risk to date... many other oilers have also....Quote:
a falling tide takes all ships down regardless of fundamentals.
invest in the right sector, and in a Stable falling market you wont lose...
Id say DOW falling 100 points in a day is stable...
500pt fall is different...
:cool:
.^sc
stable falling markets are most welcome... its better than the alternative which is a market crash...
Only use the words 'Market Crash' when we have one...
Theres no need to needlessly spread fear...
thanks mackdunk...
;)
.^sc
Oil down approx 5% and nzd is up. Fundamentally this has affected nzo at least on a daily basis. Not to forget that smallish volume chucked the sp down over 10 cps this morning.
nzo is now a producer so any direct changes in oil peices will have a direct effect to its revenue. However anything over $100 per barrel and nzo is smiling all the way to the bank. Oil will be voaltile for a long time to come. Just the other day oil rose $9. If you are day trader better to stay out otherwise you will be catching falling knives everytime the market opens.
MD. Where are you putting your money.. In housing the general market is falling, into fund managers? they are getting beaten up. Try nzo. I told you earleir this year to buy when the sp was nearly at $1.00 Look at what you have missed out. Invest where you are most likely to get a positive return. You can forget the banks as inflation will eat away any interest you make.
Good luck big guy
nita,
mackdunks been getting right in behind his favourie pumping little oiler...
He's been buying up on APX, austral pacific...he went one step further and tipped it off in the NZX stock picking competition this year as a screamer...
:D
.^sc
The stock that went from $4.60 in 2004 now languishes at 75c due to bad management, bad luck, a horrific hedging deal at $65 a barrel, and debt up to their eyeballs. They had to sell all their assets in Papua New guinea to keep their head above water. This Co. will be running very fast to stay in the same place for a while yet. I should know, I bought a pile at over $4.00 a share in 2004, when they looked poised for stardom.
Then the wheels fell off, and there's a fair way to go before they get them back on again and are back on track.
The shares went up by 15% today on about $12000 traded. its a penny dreadfull that i took for the competition with the hope of a strike. i also had PPP and NZO. I wonder if SHREWDY spent $12000 bucks today boosting the price. Macdunk
I apologise for bringing up APX...
I want nothing to do with "knick knack paddy wack, give the dog a bone",stock... Lets get back to NZO, Its Still the most undervalued NZX stock, and thats with the biggest one day drop of oil prices in 17 years...
sometimes my sense of humor gets the better of me...
mackdunk knows im just stirring...
I would, and do expect nothing less from him...
haha.. later... see you around you big cat....
:cool:
.^sc
NZO dropped 4.5% yesterday. PPP dropped 3% yesterday. Last night the price of oil dropped again which should send the markets up today. With normal fundamental thinking the NZO share price should follow the price of oil rather than the markets, and drop slightly.
This will be a rather interesting day to see if market perception or company fundamentals comes out on top. I expect the markets to bounce up today taking the NZO share price with it. Market perception even if it goes against company fundamentals will always dictate the trend. Macdunk
Hi Guys,
first time obviously that I have posted on here, but have been reading for a few months now with interest..
Was just wondering, NZO sells its oil on the Tapis standard does it not?
This is still over $140 as far as I can tell, and it will probably drop a bit this morning, but it is still higher than it was 4 weeks ago, and NZO must still be creaming it.
A little bit of consolidation in the oil price MUST be a good thing anyways, sure NZO would love to sell it at the highest price possible, but if it gets too high then the rest of the market crashes, bringing NZO down with it..
When will the market realise how much money NZO is making right now?? When the quarterly report is announced, when the annual report is announced??
Cheers for the blog guys it makes great reading..
Does the latest Momoho report indicate an uneconomical gas find?
Its out, and I'm not an expert but I dont think its good.
NZO
17/07/2008
MINE
REL: 0957 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that the Momoho 1 exploration well
has discovered a small gas condensate pool within thin, good quality
sandstones of the Palaeocene Farewell Formation, the third indication of
hydrocarbons along this structural trend.
Previously reported good gas indications recorded from the top of the primary
reservoir, the Farewell Formation (2896 metres measured depth from rotary
table (MDRT)), have now been confirmed by wireline logging and pressure and
fluid sampling.
Preliminary Interpretation indicates that the well has intersected a gross
gas condensate column over the interval 2896 to 2921 metres MDRT. The
accumulation is located on the crest of the Momoho anticline, on the
southwestern side of a central fault.
Given the presence of gas condensate at Momoho 1, gas nearby at Kupe South 4
(2.5 kilometres to the northeast) and oil at Kupe South 5 (1.2 kilometres to
the south), potential remains for hydrocarbons to be trapped within a large
closure on the northeastern, downthrown side of this fault. Evaluation of
this portion of the Momoho anticline will be considered at a future date by
the Joint Venture once the full implications of Momoho 1 have been
considered. Further studies will be undertaken to determine whether it may be
possible to contemplate a development combining these existing and potential
hydrocarbon accumulations.
Momoho 1 reached a total depth of 3145 metres MDRT on 14 July and upon
completion of the current evaluation programme, will be plugged and
abandoned. It is expected the rig will be released early next week, subject
to a suitable weather window.
Momoho is 6 kms southeast of the Kupe central field, off the coast of South
Taranaki. Drilling began on 13 June 2008 and progress is summarised as
follows:
Well section: 36inch 22inch 17inch 12 1/4inch
8-1/2inch
Planned Depth: 170.5m 550m 1,830m 2,855m 3,142.5m
Actual Depth*: 180m 561m 1,845m 2,898m 3,145m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth measured below the rotary
table (MDRT).
ENDS.
Partners in the Kupe permit PML38146 are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
Yep + I presume gas condensate is more valuable than gas? I like the sound of the "large" part of "for hydrocarbons to be trapped within a large closure on the northeastern, downthrown side of this fault.
I would imagine it will take a while for all the analysis to be completed.
It sounds to me like it's "interesting" but not what they originally expected/hoped for.
Reading this again - they have clearly decided not to incur the cost of holding the rig at this stage to drill the other side of the fault - they are releasing it instead. This signals that they aren't confident enough in the current results to risk the additional drilling investment.
A 'positive' is that the gas/condensate is at the top of an anticline, also it is in 'good quality' sandstone (assume good porosity). Unless there are more isolating faults between the M1 & the other shows - could be ok. Have to wait for full analysis I guess.
IMO, i think that this is good news, as it seems that where ever they drill in that area, they are getting small but positive readings. so the stuff is definately there, but spead out. they just need to find the best place to suck it out from.
as for the share price falling to a drop in poo...... i would of thought that a return to a more stable price would be good news as it makes for a more stable global energy using economies.
as it is..... NZO is way under valued for the relative price in oil now!
so a price drop is only putting shares into the big boys pockets.
i guess this is how the rich get richer.........
as driilled in the crest then unlikely to find oil as the gas [condensate rich gas]has filled the void - oil will be lower down the structure.
the crest may not be the thickest part of the structure either.
thought they were drilling both sides of the fault though and disappointed they are not drilling otherside now.
remember this discovery falls into the "lower royality discovery time frame" so in effect the tax man helps pay for any development through lower royalities.
M
I agree that it is the most prudent thing to do the analysis first. My comment was based on my understanding of the original (pre-drill) intent - that they were going to hold the rig for a total of 51 days in order to drill both sides of the fault. I assume they would have continued to drill the other side now if the results in the primary target had been significantly more positive.
And falling oil price may hit the sp but considering the broad hints that NZO is actively looking at acquiring existing production/reserves - it will surely help to make for more 'favourable terms'. Also - falling oil will take competition pressure off obtaining a rig should the number crunching come out ok for Mohomo - but then - at the present time there is no hurry - Kupe will supply a very adequate revenue stream for more than a decade.
No hurry to even bring the remaining reserve well on Tui in.
These results from Momoho all seem very positive to me. When Tui started we were talking hydrocarbon columns of 12m and here we have 24m in what have been found to be productive reservoir formations. With the accumulations adjacent north and south which we understood to be marginally commercial given the POO and existing Kupe infrastructure, finding 24m of condensate and gas in by far the largest of the three mapped areas must in all probability, tip the balance.
If I knew I had a “probable” development (and an associated further drilling program) with what I already knew then it makes sense to develop and cost a conceptual development before further drilling - as they are already doing – stepping out from Kupe. The Harriet JV off Western Australia (Apache and Tap Oil) has been very successful with this incremental approach to profitably develop what seem like smaller accumulations of hydrocarbons. Much better than elephant hunting for a company the size of NZO, IMO.
The potential in the “large” anticline to the north – closer to Kupe - is perhaps in the too exciting to contemplate category and dismissed for share valuation purposes, until further information. Finding more gas and condensate has to be very positive for future exploration in the area and will confirm interpretation of geology from existing 3D seismic data. AWE would have given plenty for a discovery like this last summer. :)
Lets face it seeing the fantastic side of anything to do with investing in NZ at the moment is very difficult. And NZO is....:D
When I first read the report I was left with a feeling of lots of "maybes". Having now reread it I believe it is very good. They have identified a 25m column of gas condensate on the SW side of the fault. There maybe more on the NE side but surely that column by itself is significant.
zacman
Bilo, you have hit the nail on the head. It is the development of the 3 discoveries - KS4, KS5, & Momoho 1 - that now is more likely given what has been found in Momoho 1.
Today's ASX release by Origin is headed up "PML 38146 Exploration Well Momoho 1 - third small discovery along structural trend (Offshore Taranaki Basin, New Zealand). I have highlighted the most relevant part.
So, it appears that as the condensate column of up to 25m is considered small, it is confirmed as condensate (i.e. high value given the product content of condensate), but is likely to be of a lower magnitude than the JV expected to find. However, it certainly is not a dry well. So perhaps the negative market reaction to the media release and the lower oil price is overstated.
As the "smell" of a larger pool of hydrocarbons has been detected, the JV is on the right track as it now has further reason to follow the "scent". The prospectivity of the formation has again been validated, and the development potential reaffirmed. The economics of developing the 3 known discoveries (as opposed to two) ought to have improved, and given the structural trend, further potential hydrocarbon accumulations await discovery.
And we don't have to shudder and wait for a cash issue to fund further drilling, there is enough loose change lying around to do the job.
By Jonathan Underhill
Thursday 17th July 2008
Shares of New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG) declined after the company said the Momoho-1 exploration well didn't yield commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.
The stock fell 2.3% to NZ$1.67 on the NZX. It has soared almost 50% this year while the NZX 50 Index slumped 25%. The well, which will be plugged and abandoned, was being closely watched because it is about five kilometers south of Kupe, the nation's largest undeveloped field.
"We would've hoped Momoho was large enough to be standalone," said company spokesman Chris Roberts. Taken together with two nearby wells, there "remains potential that the small accumulations taken together could amount to something worth developing," he said.
NZOG's shares have surged this year, tracking the rising price of crude, as oil flowed from its 12.5% owned Tui oilfield and investors flocked to take up options to buy shares at less than their market price. The stock reached a record NZ$1.86 on July 1.
Crude oil was recently quoted at US$134.60 a barrel and has retreated from the record US$147.27 reached June 11.
Roberts said it is too soon to predict when further exploration may take place.
Australia's Origin Energy owns 50% of the Kupe permit PML38146, with Genesis Energy owning 31% and NZOG 15%. Mitsui E&P Australia owns 4%.
www.businesswire.co.nz
Why can't NZO/Chris Roberts put forward announcements in laymans terms i.e. Momoho-1 exploration well didn't yield commercial quantities - such as above - in NZX/ASX announcements? I'm not sure - are NZO holders (65%+ non institution) expected to be experts in analysing technical data/jargon or have consultants who can/do?
Chris, have a look at the last few pages and see the confusion the announcment caused.
Do you agree there needs to be a change in policy to ensure a level playing field for everyone...?
Not all doom and gloom, atleast it wasn't dry + the fundamentals should drive the SP up to analysts valuations before long, but a more pragmatic approach to announcements would be appreciated.
Malcolm - you may want to post the "go back to kindy" reply to many other posters who were unsure about about the announcement which was the point of my post - and not all NZO shareholders view this site. You'll also note that the production update on the NZO website includes explaination on the tempoary decrease in expected production due to my query to Chris.
I am not questionuing Chris's valuable PR input - just asking for a clearer explanation on imporatant announcements. Anyway, if you read the post properly..,.
Chalice just ignore Malcolm. He is a loose canon. Launches into replying without understanding the post he is commenting on.
I agree, punters left guessing and plain English saved for the journalists. Makes no sense to me.
Well drilling in the last 12 months has been a big letdown.Momoho is little better than Tieke.At Tieke we were left with small traces but a possible sidetrack after more tests are done.The conclusion given was that maybe oil was there somewhere but deeper. Haven't heard any more about Tieke
Several things come to my mind about Momoho.With the other two wells it will probable get developed.Also conserative estimated are the order of the day and as with TUI it will probably be twice as large after it gets going[if it gets going].
The other thing about momoho was that it was always going to be down the track development anyways. The central field area will take up the main action for the coming years so regardless if Momoho had been a big winner it would still be on the back burner for some time.That time can be used to poke around a bit more and see how extensive the field is. Maybe it will turn out like TUI and be shallow but cover a large ares and with future price rises will become economic.
What i would like to see NZO do now is to put the talk of a big spendup [acquistions]on the distant back burner.We need that money to find and develop more oil and gas fields right where we are,where we know most about what we are doing.Get over committed trying to take on the big boys and that money could soom evaporate and then we are back looking for shareholder injections to develop any future finds here.Our base is not secure enough for distant acquistions.Note i leave out the possibility of a move on PPP here as with this company we probably have access to near as you can get info on that target. But the going outside even Aus looking for opportunities scares me,and it shoud scare the rest of you.
Momoho has shown we have much to still look for here.
Reading the above posts; Come to think of it – more information would be a welcome thing.
When it comes down to it – If you or I were to present a proposal to an investor with as little detail of business strategy, proposed development and analytical detail as is often served up so far - - then I suspect I would get thrown out of the meeting room or at least sent off with a ‘please prepare a detail plan by tomorrow or get out’.
Personally – I don’t really have the time to go fishing around the Crown minerals site to get a handle on what is really going on – and it is a nark to have to do that.
What a fantastic post Digger - can't say more..
I agree wih Digger and co. Concentrate on oil exploration not on aquisition. I dont want to see a best deal in town done like DPC did with St Laurence.
Momoho field failure costs explorers $50m
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4621965a13.html
and in the Herald.........
GUSHING OVER OIL
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10522152
Good post Cam - interesting to see opposing reports in the NZ media on the same day. I wonder what oil price Aspect Huntley are using to come up with their $1.83 (NZD or AUD) valuation? I believe most of the other analysts covering NZO have used $100 - still around $30 lower than the current price, even after the "correction" of the last few days.
No selling on my part for sure - not at these prices!
Bob C
Oil for August delivery now appears to be under someone's control. Poacher turned game keeper, perhaps?
Is this a result of the President taking some lads behind the bike shed the other day?
We may or may not have speculation but we do have manipulation.
When will it end? :eek: Obviously a good thing for the free world but sets up the shorters to excrete all over the productive side of the industry.
Now it wouldn't be the same organisation(s) responsible, or would it?
Chalice and others: Drilling announcements are very carefully worded. There is certain terminology that has to be used to align with internationally agreed definitions. In this particular case, the announcement was drafted by the operator and then agreed to by the joint venture partners. We try to use 'plain language' when we can, but it is not always possible.
Our plain language Quarterly Activities Report will be out at the end of July.
Thank you Chris. However these announcements are meant to keep the market informed. To write them so they can't be easily interpreted by those that are meant to be informed is unacceptable. NZOG is not alone on this.
My thoughts on why it is so hard for many to understand Peak Oil is the play of politics around the issue. Take todays third big drop in crude to just below 130.For some time i had the idea this would happen about now.In fact i say it will fall to 120.Why?? Because of the olympics. The Chinese have the ability to single handly do this.Firstly they certainly know when the olympics are being held so simply stock up on fuel before hand.This stocking up is in the previous six months and will send the fuel price up as it did.With a month before the olympics pull out of the market and the price will fall. Presto--the feel good factor---business as usual---we can all relax and be happy.
So peak oil will be put off until after the olympics and the US might even try to stall it until after the elections. Come 2009 and the sh-it will really hit the fan.
I am so sure of this i will be stocking up on diesel shortly for next summers digger work.
So peak oil has been postponed for a few months.Can we revisit this topic then.?
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digger
In summary that is where the manipulation is.
777
Thank you Chris. However these announcements are meant to keep the market informed. To write them so they can't be easily interpreted by those that are meant to be informed is unacceptable. NZOG is not alone on this.
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Thanks for the reply Chris, but I still am experiencing some dissonace:
There are variations to the announcments by the various JV partners in this instance and have been in the past.
Why should "plain language" be allowed in almost syncronstic media handout/reports?
The stock exchange should and must be the forum where every shareholder can easily understand important announcements rather than having to surf the web.
Wait till end July for a plain language report - yeah right!
Chris, I think you have done a good job at NZO, but you have lost me on this. Next time you publish a vague report. that has most holders confused to a point that they do not know whether it's good or bad, I'll be ringing you. Don't see why journos should have the inside running.
DR WHO, You and i both know the markets are manipulated in all sorts of different ways. perfect example is a share price dropping for no other reason than a bad announcement the following day. The people in the know selling to the suckers that dont know.
That example is the signal for traders to load up or sell out of stocks in advance of the event. If you think that countries are immune to taking advantage of situations or indeed create situations of advantage, then you are in for some rude financial shocks. China is manipulating the resource sector at this moment, buying up to a position of control for future political and financial gain.
It will all hit the fan after the olympics so enjoy the dead cat bounces in the short term the price of oil will sky rocket after that. Macdunk
about 3 and 4 months ago i read that the chinese had upped their imports and then i got that feeling,so the answer to your question is both gut and some evidence.I have not seen that in the last week they have dropped it but probably will not until after the games.
Phaedrus can you TA a chart on NZO look like it is going to break soon
Thats called inside information, You got some mackdunk?Quote:
mackdunk-DR WHO, You and i both know the markets are manipulated in all sorts of different ways. perfect example is a share price dropping for no other reason than a bad announcement the following day. Macdunk
what about AGM.......;)....
Now Im not going to speculate on What Chinese officials are doing.,... What I can say is Pollution is very bad in China, so many cars have been taken off the road... heres an article http://www.china.org.cn/olympics/new...t_15922169.htm
One thing for sure is that Rising oil prices lead to the downturn of oil prices through a recession and less consumption....
If nothing is done, in the future we will have ravenous price hikes in any sort of market...
we have been warned...
NZO is well positioned to take advantage of this...
My favourite NZX stock...
:cool:
.^sc
Chris
I am of the same opinion as most others. I would like the readable !!
I put it to you :- I/WE are the shareholders of the company. Why
should Jurno's, Institutions, Stock Brokers etc etc. get the readable
info before those who own the bloody company ??.:confused:
You have most email addz's, why not a quick abreviated email in
good old plain english??. After all it's time you should be very careful
about the shareholders as well :mad:
BB