Probably about as good as Shane Jones regional slush fund but hopefully not as big :eek2:
Not so.
Shane is spending your money.
Turners directors have very large shareholdings in Turners,so are spending a good bit of their own money.
Huge difference.
I trust people with a lot of skin in the game.
Yeap, fresh live baits always work best, that's what the charter boat guys reckon anyway lol
You could say they "have skin in the game" and you would be right.!!
$2.51.......................and rising...??????????????????????????/
In that case I am certainly "well positioned."...............lol.
Wow have not had a look at the TRA price for a while. Some serious buyer (price wise) activity showing up. Above $2.50. Nice one.
That is true, however as a caveat, the finance side of the business thrives in high interest rate environments and not low ones so there might be a bit of damage there. Again time will tell.
I also think we as investors place too much emphasis on "yield paying companies" when saying they will benefit in low interest rate environments because every company irrespective of whether they pay a dividend or not is a yield paying company. Some companies pay this yield in capital gains others in dividends, others in yet a mixture thereof. But every company has an implicit yield.
Mmh - not sure whether the drop in the base rate is good for TRA.
For starters - it does bring the currency down, which makes imports more expensive.
TRA is importing lots of used cars and pays in foreign currency for them.
Cost of driving in general will go up. Oil is paid for in US dollars and will go up. So will the prices for any spare parts vehicles need. Anotehr reason not to buy a car.
For the finance side the rate move it should be pretty rate agnostic (but not advantageous) - if the rate drops, their finance becomes cheaper, but their customers expect probably cheaper rates as well.
Insurance - obviously cost of claims will go up (dearer spare parts) - and they will either need to increase their premiums or drop their margins.
And sure - this was only a small move, i.e. the sky won't fall in, but the direction is in my view not good for TRA.
Nothing changed for this business, but a so far weak SP uptrend ... and (just btw) they are still below the MA200.
There used to be times when a poster called percy did warn to buy into downtrends. TRA is in a downtrend. Just following his great advise ;);
Wishing holders all the best, but even if it looks like at the moment somebody wants in ... I don't see at this stage the potential benefits exceeding the risks.
Grant must be happy as, he's now in the green on his last purchase.
Some interesting price action on the buy side with the bot running.
Put it in your diaries 10.30 29 May for the Annual results presentation (
The results presentation will be released to the NZX and can also be streamed live during the call by following this link: https://slideassist.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1243855. )
10/10 for providing a streaming link! Seems like only Todd Hunter is going to be there - along with the CFO.
Todd Turner must be chafing at the bit wanting to announce the $32.5m NPBT for F19 and rave that’s a solid 5% increase over the prior year in spite of challenging market conditions. He’ll probably tell us that earnings growth has come about from all parts of the business performing well.
What’s important though is the outlook. I reckon they’ll hint and tease us about double digit growth for F20 as their strategic initiatives unfold.
That’ll condemn the broker analysts forecasts to the dump bin (were stupidly low anyway) and they’ll need to Have another guess,
I thought the TRA share price would go to $3,23 after the half year announcement but I didn’t foresee them in telling tales of gloom and despair to get the share price down so they could buy back more shares (sneaky stuff eh). But never mind I’m pretty confident of the $3.23 in the next month or so after the full year ...only 6 months or so late.
Just realised that $3.23 is 50% gain from its lows of not long ago
Always good buying at times when the weak capitulate
I am expecting Todd's announcement to be the biggest yawn of the year. We know the result will be manipulated to hit the forecast target as a bulls eye. What we won't know is all the manipulations behind the scenes with property and goodwill revaluations, insurance capital adjustments and who knows what else. All that will be kept for when the full annual report is published. And the media will have lost interest by then. What we do know is that 'earnings' will emphasised and 'earnings per share' will be in the small print.
I really don't buy Turner's redeveloping their own properties and booking capital profits at a high price by renting those redeveloped properties out to themselves at above market rates. I like the idea of leaving the new landlord with nothing as Turners container offices are lifted out on the back of a truck at 'end of lease time'. But I doubt those landlords will be back for a second go after their land prices plunge when Turners eventually move out. I guess that will only be a problem for Todd's successor some years down the track. Yet, there is one thing that would make me change my mind about Todd building his profit out of container blocks.
I think Todd should contact Phil Twyford and re-energise their container building program into kiwi build houses. Phil's 100,000 kiwi-home build target would suddenly 'stack up'. A container house would be cheap and could be stacked sky high in prime city real estate. Get rid of the port from downtown Auckland and stack up the port land with container houses. They would be a magnet for downtown café workers to invest in their own home. Then when you retire with latté RSI, crane out your container to a quarter acre section in a back block town and grow your own dope. A house for life! These things are earthquake resistant so you could even stack them in Wellington or Christchurch. Stick them in the basin reserve with land lease payments going to the Wellington Council, and crane them out temporarily for the few days a year when the venue is needed for cricket. I see a bonanza for councils all around the country with this 'optimized sportsground strategy', and we shareholders! What about it Todd?
SNOOPY
Snoops ..the container site at Wellington might exist a lot longer than they thought ....the council/government stuffed up transport plans again for the Basin.
They photoshopped Turners out of the artists impression of a non existent flyover
Whistling in the dark? Actually - TRA is still in a long term downtrend channel (
But I suppose it all will depend on how these financial results look like. I don't know the answer and I suppose you don't either. And as snoopy eludes to - it all can be fudged anyway until we see the annual report.
Cool chart ....even though that Moosie is a often danger to himself
Good thing about that chart is that it confirms my 323 target
Chart gurus often say that when something breaks out of a channel the first target is the breakout point plus the depth of the channel it broke out of....there’s a more TA speak explanation but that’s how hoops explained it once.
The width / depth of the channel looks like it’s about 60 cents so when it breaks out of that channel at 263 it’s likely to go to 323 .....spooky eh.
It always does. One correction, though - It depends on where the majority of the traders anchor their channel markers. TA only works because people are using it ;);
I guess we will find out in due time what the correct answer for this particular case would have been ;);
GLTAH;
Might buy heaps more to get price above 260 .....then it’ll take off ..just needs a bit of a shove.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112...fX7jRGZZ_0QkXI
Can't be good for the used car market...?
Fact is often different from fiction.
I pick up my granddaughter from High School 4 afternoons.
As anyone knows I am only one
of far too many people who collect kids from school in their car.
If they can't even get to and from school as Kids,they are going to grow into big time car buyers and users.
We are training a whole generation of car dependant people.
This will led to a continuing growing number of cars on our roads.
Must be good for Turners.
The last book buying trip I did to Auckland I expected to be over at the North Shore just before 10 am.Arrived at 9.30.What a difference school holidays make.
ps.Had my first bus trip on Thursday attending an annual meeting in town.All went well going into town.Bus exchange was excellent.
Coming home the driver missed my stop,and I was not happy walking an extra half kilometer in the pouring rain.Beauty was the trip cost me nothing using my [thank you Winnie] Gold Card.
Got chatting with a bloke yesterday who told me his wife has just started working with an electric vehicle sharing company in Auckland. They already operate in Chch.
Among other issues they are grappling with two major issues presenting include:-
Vehicles have to be returned to designated depot's, (especially problematic for users)
Everyone's definition of cleanliness is different, (problematic for users and the ride sharing company).
It will be interesting to see how things progress but I think until we see widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles there will be little if any impact on Turners.
Moosie's down-trending channel looks like it could be something of a problem, results dependent of course. Outlook commentary if any that comes with the annual result on 29 May will be interesting.
Cant see how electric vehicles would effect Turners, they will simply move into that category as well. Plenty of second hand EVs coming into th country
We know the divie will be retained at 17cps [or more] for the coming year.5 cps end of July has been confirmed.Great for us long term investors having the fully imputated divie paid quarterly.
The outlook statement will be all important,and hopefully the board will advise a resumption of the share buy back scheme.
I would also like to know whether there has been any progress made on finding a new site for the ChCh branch.When they develop their own sites, they get what suits them best,ie a big yard area with smallish building area.Landlords prefer big buildings and small yards.
The rebranding of BuyRight Cars should sort that problem out.
The only other problem area was the old MTF non recourse loans. Hopefully the big impairements have all been made.
I am expecting further growth in both finance and insurance.
The big "I want to know" is property development.Those profits will show up in insurance,but the sale of the old North Shore branch should have produced a healthy profit.New site in Archers Road should be operating in August.Looks as though it will be something for shareholders to be proud of.Whangarei certainly is.
ps.
No I will not be attending Turners Auckland twelve Classic Harley Davidsons auction.
You wouldn't hav a chance bidding against Destiny:D
Jeez that Liam is very very good ...even the commentators sound really excited raving about his awesomeness
Hopefully rub off on the share price in coming weeks
Niki Lauda is dead.
A true champion and a legend ....and more recently one of forces behind the Mercedes team (and Lewis Hamilton)
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...d-dies-aged-70
Yes a true champion and legend.
He never gave up on anything.Always spoke openly and honestly,a rarity in Formula 1.
Share price effectively bounced off the upper end of Moosie's trading range and thus still in a downtrend.
Will need a ripper outlook for FY19 statement included with the annual result to get it up through the upper end of that resistance channel and I don't think we're going to get that. Was good buying at around $2.14 or close to that and congrats to those who picked the bottom but only fair value at the current price IMHO.
I think the result will have something for every man,moose and dog.!!..
Have any of your clients ever brought or sold their businesses using TA.?
I wonder whether any TA "experts" have ever owned their own businesses, or run a business.?
Some interesting comments from MTF's first half result ;
MTF said "$49.3 mil of the reduced lending was due to less business going through Turners.A non-recourse loan offered with Turners' Oxford Finance was
discontinued after tighter lending criteria sapped demand for the product.""Turners also brought more business in-house.diverting lending that had previously been done by MTF".
Well as a Turners shareholder I am pleased the MTF non-recourse lending has stopped.Just wonder what the cost of this mistake will be.A one off.?
Positive is the fact Turners have taken the lending they were doing via MTF in-house.This will give Turners a lot better margin.
Of concern was the following statement from MTF who warned "that unprecendented growth is now in decline,citing the slowing global economy,weaker domestic spending,and dwindling business confidence.
So on Wednesday we will find out how robust Turners business model really is,and how bright they see their future.
One more sleep to the big day ....and it’s not even a full moon
Reckon npbt $32.5m will be the number ...but will the market concentrate on the dismal $29m number
Be interested to see if Snoops gets his 20% growth normalised earnings ...that would be staggering.
Stupid question
We’ve been told there will be a $4.5m one-off, non-cash write-off for the Buy Right Cars brand and signage value.
Question - what’s happening with the $35m Goodwill allocated to the CGU (cash generating unit) Buy Right Cars that shows up in the last Annual Report. Does it just get lost somewhere or something.
Asking for a friend
They only mentioned the $4m brand value innintangibles ...no mention of the $35m goodwill.
I’ll suggest he dials in
It’s only Goodwill and as the ‘business’ per se still exists they’ll just relabel it Turners. Some pretty robudtbgrowth numbers used to justify the carrying value but that’s another story.
Hope Mrs Snoopy cooks her Beagle a good breakfast...he's going to need some serious brain food to adjust for so many irregular, unusual and extraordinary items from one year to the next its probably going to take him hours of number crunching to work out what the real normalised eps growth or decline is. I'll wait for his analysis...when you've got another good dog doing the work, why bother barking ?
As for the headline number and how they write that up...I am sure Percy will find the good in it and I am confident the announcement won't be written in Pink.
I read Percy's post #5515 as true to form, if it's good news and the story is intact he'll be back here telling us all about it, but if it's bad news and the story is broken he'll be first in the sell queue long before Snoopy, bless him, gets the underlying numbers published.
Can't say TRA is boring can we!
For some reason I thought Turners were reporting today ? And prior to 9:00 !
Whats going on ?
Hey percy ...they’ve let you down ...not always doing what they say they will do
Turners Automotive Group Limited (NZX: TRA) advises that it intends to announce its FY19 full year results for the twelve months ended 31 March 2019 on Wednesday 29 May 2019,
prior to 9am NZST.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335210
Wow adjusted profit up 8%!
Always new they'd pull through with that adjusted number right?
Oxford Finance and EC Credit to be sold?
More dividends on the way?
Outlook a bit mysterious, though:
Please note - I copied the complete paragraph ...Quote:
Management have identified a number of growth opportunities across all businesses, which take advantage of the changing dynamics of the industry – digital disruption, increased regulation, increasing shift to online channels, alternative ownership models and industry consolidation. The new strategy will help position Turners to take a
So, what exactly are they taking?
Maybe Heartland could buy their finance division?? If the numbers stack up of course.
Chart on Slide 7 of 41 shows EPS down but no numbers or comment
Somewhere else it says EPS down 10% ...suppose that’s the normalised number
Hope the punters get a bit more excited with only 1000 odd shares on the bid. Lol
"well positioned" 17c divis for the year re a 7% yield, payout ratio increased. Oxford maybe flicked.Alot of ageing cars needing to be replaced guarantees continuity, what a great space.
Finance looking a bit weak: Revenue 11% up and earnings 5% down. Is this good for a finance company?
Wondering as well how to read this comment:
and that:Quote:
Impairments on high risk category loans not improving…
Total instalment arrears excl MTF non recourse
impairments 2.0% (1.6% FY18).
hmm ...Quote:
Impairment expense in OFL is up 25% to $7.4m
Seem to have forgotten to report Appendix 1 and the Financial Statements
mentioned earlier on this thread that there debt was too high , so glad they see this now and are implementing strategy to rectify this.
First impressions are uninspiring. Probably flogging off their finance division which seems to be a tacit admission that they're not getting an acceptable return on invested capital and looking at other strategic reviews as well. Lot of reviews and real net profit appears to be down.
The used car industry is very tough, always has been and probably always will be.
Yes...good to see its down a bit. In that light I was a little surprised to see this:
"Dividend Policy Change: Increase in pay out ratio to 60% to 70% of NPAT"
Might have been better to keep reducing the debt. But maybe they might need this to keep dividend payments more or less where they are now ?
Stunned silence on the market....one sale at 243, 100 shares !
No worries - share price heading to $2.50+ again
See they got 3% of the shares in the Buy Back and will re look at this in the near future
All those slides - does it say that Turners are going to focus on selling cars (with some insurance if the punters want it) and start loving car users with the warm fuzzies with ultimately becoming the ‘Netflix for Cars’
Finance and collection are goners. .....so no confusion becoming just a car company and not a financial services company.
But sometimes I misunderstand things
This rather surprised me.
However they see better use of their capital doing this.
i would think there will be widespread interest in Oxford Finance,so whether it is sold outright, or some joint venture will be interesting to see.
CE Credit does look as though it will be sold.
New sites and relocated sites are performing well.More being developed which I see as a very real positive.
Their property development/ dealing is certainly very profitable.
MIM although lower is still an extremely healthy 8.9%.
Only if you're trader or a sad sack kinda guy/gal. I will take the 7% yield and pro active enthusiasm of management to refine and grow this company, leading and biggest in its field..
This is a good management always looking to improve and pay good cash dividends so I think treat it as a dividend long hold stock won’t hurts
Wasn't that long ago many were extoling the virtues of their business model being multi faceted. Will be much easier to value now. Just look at earnings from the car operations and apply one or two PE lower than Colonial Motors, (lets face it their track record has been far superior) and QED you'll have fair value.
Percy, I’m a bit disappointed that Todd didn’t sound you out about these changes and get your endorsement
These days it is an imperative to get key influencers on board from day one when you do big things. Just makes acceptance that much harder.
They’ve missed out here ...which is a worry as one of the key platforms for the future is getting closer to the consumer by way of the internet.
[QUOTE=winner69;760909]Percy, I’m a bit disappointed that Todd didn’t sound you out about these changes and get your endorsement
So am I....................
I understand your thinking and if TRA board would have been a bit more committed to the business they created I think the plan would have more than likely work out. We would have seen healthy growth in profits by now.
Sadly as I observed earlier, I can not help but see similarities between the performers of Grant Baker while chairing TRA and the wagging kids at my school many years ago.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...Oxford-Finance.
We know what they bought it for, but do we know what they will sell it for??