Why would Macca buy PX1? They already obtain all the services they want at other PX1 shareholders’ expense for their $5m investment!
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Shareprice down a bit but no huge sell off .....that’s good
That's an interesting way of looking at it, when in fact McDonalds accounts for 94% of total revenue, one would equate that to $27,401,000 FY21 (one year) investment (fees) to "obtain all the services they want", which has nothing to do with their shareholding in the company.
I see no reason why McDonalds would buy Plexure unless they decided a one-time expense of say (~$116m market cap minus ~$11m they already own) = ~$105 million (no premium) purchase price at today's market cap would have a payback equivalent of no ongoing service fees after about 4 years, but still retain the expenses of running the company.
And of course they would require current investors to agree to a buyout, which would seem highly unlikely at no premium to market cap (using example above) and even less likely when you consider who the top 10 shareholdings are.
Yeah nah.
Craig might be ruing the day he told the media about the new customer, that hasn't been signed. Wonder what Phil thinks of his loose lips? That imo is the single biggest reason that the SP has fallen away from the cap raise / SPP price. For Phil alone, that's about $1.9 million paper loss since the cap raise, let alone from the $1.59 high SP when they announced the cap raise / IPO.
Can't agree unfortunately, as Arbroath pointed out earlier today:
"- basically a $30m revenue business now
- $42m of cash to fund development plans so about 4-5 years cash"
That's not a strategic risk imo. The company has 36% of its market cap as cash in the bank!
Really think the notion of a takeover by McDonalds is very very unlikely. I'd prefer to think they'll be happy to let Plexure get on with its strategy execute the plan.
If you owned any, would you accept $1.00 for your share that todays market is worth only $0.67?
I certainly wouldn't, but then I'm not VIZ, or Forbar, or ACC or any of the larger shareholders. Maybe they'd be happy with $1, even after shelling out $1.20 recently in the cap raise?
Yeah nah, aint gonna happen.
I think we should have all realised this was going to be a bad one. Two things:
Many people aren't going to shops all over the world thanks to COVID. That means I expect their revenue to be at risk, for the time being.
Because nobody is going into retail stores, all those stores have to stop spending money. If a deal was in the works previously, most certainly it would be stalled during COVID. I am amazed this is surprising to some.
But I would love the SP to drop some more, great buying if we get down under 40c again. Drop baby drop!
For Bars latest this morning.
OUTPERFORM
Plexure's (PX1) FY21 result provided little new information to the market after pre-announcing revenue but delivered a
slightly larger than expected loss due to increased platform costs. We understand that the company is in the final stages of
an RFP to win a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer, with management expecting
completion during 1H22. Beyond this potential contract win, management has cited the global recovery profile and
COVID-19 related disruptions as slowing the speed of new customer acquisitions in the short term, but remain sanguine on
achieving its FY25 revenue target of NZ$100m, given the coup of recruiting two high profile international sales executives
from competitors. After success with Indonesian supermarket Super Indo, PX1 also expects to onboard more Ahold
Delhaize (global supermarket group) brands during FY22. With management confident of executing new contract wins,
adding additional McDonald's markets, and growing its international sales presence we retain our OUTPERFORM rating.
What's changed?
FY21 operationally in-line
PX1 delivered FY21 revenue of NZ$29m (+15%) driven by back book growth from existing customers. The -NZ$8m loss was larger
than expected, attributable to higher platform costs and FTE wage inflation. As pre-announced on 9 March, FTE headcount grew to
150, below the company's FY21 target of 190. However, since March 2021, PX1 has acquired 10 new FTEs (taking current headcount
to 160), two of which are senior sales executives, joining from competitors in the US and Asia, each with existing networks and
relationships in respective markets. We view this as a positive endorsement of PX1's proposition and likely driver of future sales.
Update on existing customer base
PX1's presence in McDonald's markets increased from 59 to 64 during the year and the company expects to add Spain, the remainder
of India and three other markets to its platform during FY22. PX1's current contract with McDonald's is driven by store growth, with
an increased user base gross margin erosive. PX1 is confident of changing its contract with McDonald's to align more with user
growth on its platform, with resolution expected by September 2021.
Valuation
With PX1 now trading on an EV/forward sales of 1.9x, our FY23 revenue growth forecast of +17% implies the stock should be trading
nearer 5.7x. We believe recent weakness in the share price presents an attractive buying opportunity for the patient investor.
Thanks GWD
Like this bit........"We understand that the company is in the final stages of an RFP to win a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer, with management expecting completion during 1H22."
A little red herring is that McDonalds are looking to sell Dynamic Yield, why? Probably because it’s not as successful service as what they’ve got with Plexure. Could they be looking to free up some capital to buy a bigger stake in Plexure? Possible..
Good logic, and very good for PX1 if correct.
We understand that the company is in the final stages of
an RFP to win a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer, with management expecting
completion during 1H22.
After success with Indonesian supermarket Super Indo, PX1 also expects to onboard more Ahold
Delhaize (global supermarket group) brands during FY22.
PX1 is confident of changing its contract with McDonald's to align more with user
growth on its platform, with resolution expected by September 2021.
If management can achieve this three goals in FY2022, the share price will be doubled or tripled?
Just In & Spot on!
They bought Dynamic Yield for about $300m, it is an AI enabled tech used in-store on the kiosks and at the drive-through. I don't see the conflict that you refer to. Recommend that you have a look at McDonalds 2020 annual report; it explains how many stores worldwide, how many of them are franchised (93% of them), split of responsibilities and costs between McD and franchisee, what the digital transformation is all about - where it's happening and how it's going. From there you can follow the bread-crumb trail and learn about Plexures role with their marketing platform and mobile app.
"We understand that the company is in the final stages of an RFP to win a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer, with management expecting
completion during 1H22."
" After success with Indonesian supermarket Super Indo, PX1 also expects to onboard more Ahold
Delhaize (global supermarket group) brands during FY22."
This is incredibly positive news but where is the source?
Yes but where did they get this information from it isn't when I asked Craig if there are any new contracts in the pipeline last year during the video call is it? how do they "understand" its a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer and that it will be completing 1H22?
And ahold global super market group we all expect it to take onboard new stores after its excellent performance with super-indo we have since last year this is nothing new.
They probably have sources that we don't get access too. Relax enjoy the ride, maybe buy more..
We shareholders are probably all looking for that and the Forbar report is very encouraging, supporting the media disclosure of the CEO some time ago but adding a sense of timing, which isn't too far away.
Why would Forbar write those lines if they didn't have very high confidence (OUTPERFORM) in it coming to fruition? The largest shareholder (custodian) of Plexure. They are talking to their clients. I'm certain that they don't do that flippantly.
I am wondering whether you put too much emphasis on this comment. Either this is public knowledge, and then the source would not be Forbar, or Forbar is spreading insider information to their customers (which I don't think - and it would be illegal as well).
More likely is that some author of some report might think they have heard or understood (sic) something which may or may not have been said in a public meeting.
That is what the word "understand" can mean.
I wouldn't put money on what somebody thinks they might have heard. Would you?
Then why are they including it at all in a report like this if they don't know themselves?
Could it be because as Baa said they have a large holding of Plexure and want it to spread to keep the share price from falling further or do they have information we dont? either way doesn't sound right to me price manipulation or revealing insider information.
Also from Hotcopper via kiwiCheek posted..
"I saw a recent interview with the CEO of PX1, Craig Herbison. Absolutely worth reading right to the END of the article which is where the real gold in the story is for those of us wanting a few hints on direction. The Israeli company App that has previously had all of the McDonald's US business has experienced issues with the tracking of their sales.
In the meantime, the CEO of PX1 has been ramping up and says that all he can say is they are busier than ever before with Macca's work.
Anyone else think this is a take-off sign for PX1`into the US??"
Where do you get that idea from reading the Forbar update? It is clear as they cite "management" as the source, so obviously they've been speaking with management haven't they?
You say "speculation on their part" and "reading between the lines", so you reckon they just make stuff up and publish it to their clients?
How on earth are these statements Forbar "speculation"?
"We understand that the company is in the final stages of an RFP to win a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer, with management expecting completion during 1H22."
"management has cited the global recovery profile and COVID-19 related disruptions as slowing the speed of new customer acquisitions in the short term, but remain sanguine on achieving its FY25 revenue target of NZ$100m, given the coup of recruiting two high profile international sales executives from competitors."
"After success with Indonesian supermarket Super Indo, PX1 also expects to onboard more AholdDelhaize (global supermarket group) brands during FY22."
"management confident of executing new contract wins, adding additional McDonald's markets,"
"PX1 is confident of changing its contract with McDonald's to align more with user growth on its platform, with resolution expected by September 2021."
------
Look at the things we didn't know, and the specifics, that Forbar have mentioned. Where else could this come from than talking to management:
- final stages of an RFP to win a substantial contract with a globally listed, multi-brand food retailer
- but remain sanguine on achieving its FY25 revenue target of NZ$100m
- recruiting two high profile international sales executives from competitors
- expects to onboard more Ahold Delhaize (global supermarket group) brands during FY22
- confident of executing new contract wins, adding additional McDonald's markets
- confident of changing its contract with McDonald's
------
Almost all of that is new information, or more detail about things that have been alluded to, but not in such specific detail.
How is all this "speculation" on Forbars behalf?
Just help us a bit to calibrate these amazing statements ...
From the 2020annual report:
So - board said 12 months ago they are very confident to secure new customers.Quote:
The Board remains very confident about the prospects for
the business and our leadership team and talented staff
are continuing to work extremely hard to meet our current
customers’ expectations, secure new customers, ...
Maybe their confidence is not that much worth?
Or - did they really only say that the board is very confident that leadership team and very talented staff work hard to secure new customers?
but sadly - very talented staff didn't work hard enough or worse - they worked as hard as they could, but this wasn't good enough?
So difficult to read between the lines, particularly if the future is involved ...
My father used to remind me that the job isn't finished before the paperwork is done. Being confident that something will be done is good, but not sufficient :), even for people who have a better track record than Plexure in being confident :p;
But anyway - I am sure you read into the report whatever endowment effect and confirmation bias will show you. After all - we are all human, but I am not a holder :p;
Baabaa - hope it all works out the way Forbar are saying it will. We will all be happy
I agree with Dalziel when he's quoted in the media as saying the market over reacted and shares are way under valued
I've written to Chairman Norman about how 'sensitive' material that apparently is not publicly available is included in an analyst report put out by Forbar ...pointing out that 'Management is cited' an 'management are confident' etc
Doubt I'll get a response but one never knows
Be funny if he comes back and says its just speculation on their part
Forbar commenced coverage of Plexure last March with what the media called a 'big call' with OUTPERFORM and target $1.58 (I believe it was headed "Plexure Group (PX1) Patiently Waiting for a McFlurry of Deals" or something like that)
Jamie and Ashton really got excited about Plexure - good on them
Come last week and the disappointing announcement they had to say something to 'justify' what they had written a few months - so as they say in the trade they added some 'colour' to the analysis - nothing more than that
Jeez I'm cynical sometimes .... but often cynicism is just being realistic
How many stories we need to see or read to fully understand the kind of deception these so called analysts and media put together for ....
Up to every one to be careful and cautious out there.
Put it this way - I have personally witnessed MDs/CEOs lied to the media, to analysts & to their broker mates. They will do anything when their back is to the wall or their $$$$ are at stake.
I recall an infamous case where a MD of a high profile company told all & sundry that his company was doing fine (after an earnings downgrade) and he was unavailable for further comments as he had a health issue which needed sorting out. He sold all of his shares via a close broker friend who regurgitated his assurances to investors. Share price collapsed 75% after it became known & the earnings downgrades kept coming.
Then, there’s Feltex where the company assured a broking firm & clients at a presentation all was fine a month or so before the company started going into receivership.
The ultimate of course was Plus SMS - now that is THE story of total deceit and skulduggery of the highest order!
Not saying that PX1 is in any of the above category at all but I always take what companies & management say with big pinches of salt, especially when they fail to deliver what they ‘promised’.
Didn't that Plus SMS rave on about McDonalds and lots of new customers coming on board ....with zillions of consumer touch pointsQuote:
Quote Balance⁸
The ultimate of course was Plus SMS - now that is THE story of total deceit and skulduggery of the highest order!
Not saying that PX1 is in any of the above category at all but I always take what companies & management say with big pinches of salt, especially when they fail to deliver what they ‘promised’.
There were new signings every second week & with each signing, the numbers got bigger and the sp went ever higher, remember?
I was at a table with a group of lawyers & accountants at a function in Wellington around that time and most of them were invested in Plus SMS & talking about how it was going to become a multi billion company. One accountant was a high profile well known Wellington personality who many in the market followed.
Imagine - seasoned lawyers & accountants sucked into the hype.
Company management doing deception is still understandable ...But I am more worried about so called independent analysts of famous brokerage houses doing it . What good is an analysis if its based on hearsay especially from interested parties like management and shareholders ??
Then media plays a role in spreading that myth and dupe investors .
MYB and HMY are prime examples of brokerages favouring management at the expense of investors .
Doing your own research and believing in yourself most is the only way to avoid this murky path of deception shown regularly by analysts for their own ulterior motives ...when an analysts quotes management then that itself is shady business IMHO ....Management need share company info only via NZX announcements ...not thru analysts .
Just remember that stock broking firms make more money as a general rule from investment banking (IPOs, M & A, corporate advisory, placements etc) than stockbroking - so analysts & brokers will avoid putting out negative reports on companies until the companies are well & truly buggered.
Such is the way of the world so always take that into consideration.
OK so it’s back up now, people just bought the dip?
Not people ...idiots
Not worth my time to label this chart everyone with an IQ of 0 upwards can figure this chart out.
Buying into the DCB investing strategy is not worth the risk ..a 10% gain if your timing is immaculate ....that sort of immaculate timing needs divine help
Attachment 12542
Obviously my IQ is below 0, but your attachment does not work, would you specify why anyone who purchased while it was down is an idiot?
Thanks for editing your post, it’s now possible to view the attached chart. People buying the dip aren’t necessarily trying to make a quick 10%, rather they may well see plexure as a good long term investment and the further 10% discount offered last week was a good opportunity to accumulate.
"..was down.." is a past tense ....You should edit your sentence to the present tense "..is going down.."
Hopefully my charts works now and shows a purchase of shares at any time during the last 6 months would be worth less now..(except for the latest DCB)
DCB = Dead Cat Bounce this short term profit making strategy that works best during a prolonged down trending stock
Agreed, it is going down, but if your a believer in the company and you are holding it for the long term it’s been a great opportunity to accumulate, and will continue to be so. The fact that weak hands are selling doesn’t mean everyone should do the same, I would look at it more like anyone who sold, because there wasn’t a new customer announced was an idiot, there was never going to be a customer announced with the annual results, a customer will be announced when a customer is signed, they will not sit on it, let’s see where this is at in 12,18, 36months. Add a large customer or 2 in the next year and the share price will be where it was 6 months ago in no time.
It will be a good opportunity if the shareprice trend reverses to the upside (a higher high, a higher low)..There is no evidence yet to see this is happening...until it does, a recent buyer is living on optimism,hope, speculation and self opinionated assumptions...all of these can be seen as a recipe of high risk investing of a gambling nature..
best of luck Carpfish..hope it works out...
For me I will wait for TA buy signals
Disc: ex shareholder
PS..sorry if I come across being a bit blunt..but the markets can be very cruel
as Mr P said -the market giveth but the market also taketh away
Your chart Hoop says the market giveth heaps but as taketh away heaps
Does TA even work on a company like PX1? What's the point in looking at a 6 month chart on a company that was dependent on a signing of a new customer. Forbar say new customer in H1. TA won't tell us that SP will rocket after that but everyone knows it will
I highlighted two key phrases in above post. One can find these plenty of times in any thread talking about falling stocks. Obviously - some people think it is good to "believe" (i.e. ignore facts, just believe and trust) in companies and they think as well that people who sell shares in order to make money or cut losses have weak hands. Funny logic - I would prefer to have "weak hands" and money in the bank instead of having "strong hands" but empty pockets.
Anyway - the ATM thread would be another excellent example for these phrases. I think it might be a mixture of indications for the endowment effect and desperation which makes people using these phases
Obviously - the trend chart (Thanks, hoop) says it all, but in case anybody is still in doubt whether they want to buy in NOW, these two key phrases should act like a large field of red flags.
Hmmm so according to Hoop people who bought on the dip were “Not people ...idiots”
Hmmm and according to carpfish “anyone who sold, because there wasn’t a new customer announced was an idiot”
Hmm oh dear i guess that means The Bear really is an idiot :confused: :D
“ "Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market." -Warren Buffett.”
To me the company hasn’t changed significantly since I purchased it 2 years ago, yes the share price has gone down but that doesn’t change the company. Granted, they have not produced the new customers, but just like I was happy to wait for new customers a year ago I am also happy to wait now.
Good quote - though, Warren tends to ignore his own quotes, just think about him buying into airlines after trashing them. In this case he better would have followed his quotes.
But anyway - while a successful company might well dip by 50% (as he indicates) - the fact it is dipping does not guarantee you that it will be a successful company.
But what's worse is - Buffett would never ever buy into a company with such a high premium on assets and consistently producing losses. I don't think the use of his quote is appropriate in the context of PX1.
So - they promised this customer and it didn't arrive. You say you are as happy as the first year to wait? For how many more years?
Just curious - do you have a stop loss or is there anything which would make you sell? When would your picture of the company change? A broken promise - well, obviously not? Twice broken promise? Triple broken promise? Doing a Wynyard?
Just trying to understand your strategy ...
Most of the cap raise was aussies ...new investors we are told ....maybe they are now thinking they were idiots after all.
wish the media would do away with that photo of Herbie that pops up with every story .....the big smirk that says you idiots got sucked in good and proper eh is just too much.
No stop loss, I would sell when I believed they were likely to fail. At this stage they continue to grow revenues, and they have plenty of cash on hand to continue on with, I’m happy to wait for the story to play out and will continue to assess as things change or progress, given the global COVID situation I’ve the past 18 months I think increased revenues are positive and am happy to give them time to progress things as the world slowly returns to normal.
Well, you seem to be a happy camper.
It might be worthwhile to consider that they only have sufficient cash because investors just gave them more (believing in the story which so far didn't work out). If they can repeat this trick, then they will be a happy company for a long time to come.
Some organizations used and are using this strategy for many centuries with great success :) - various religious institutions spring to mind; Not sure, though whether their clients ever got what they promised, but they are probably as well still happy waiting.
I sold out at 97c at a loss after i realised that getting more customers is going to makes this stock less profitable, they do not have their cost structure right. I keep asking where the Super indo contract is showing in their revenue and its hardly making an impact.
I would like to know what the limiting factor is that is stalling customers wanting to sign up. The only promising aspect is that it appears that the customers are still considering the product and haven’t gone to a competitor. More clarity around the delays would be helpful. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the management’s ability to execute at this point
Pita Pit deal - https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373177
great to see a new customer but in the scheme of things how big will NZ Pita Pit be in terms of revenue and profit? It's not the global player we are looking for
Certainly not a sexy signing, but still nice to see them close a deal for once, instead of lose a deal.
Wow. Pita Pit. Really? Id expect a price fall on this news.
Jeez you guys are critical. They are executing their strategy. Give them time, the money will pour in.
PX1 biggest issue is actually McDonalds. They can't go out and sell their product to everyone which is the problem. The biggest players in the global market will be on that "Do not compete" list. So whilst they can pick up little accounts here and there, growth is going to tumble down into single digits from here on in.
Some short term buy signals triggered.
The chart I posted uses medium term (default) measurement indicators. They look better now (best since end of December 2020) but yet to fire buy signals (apart from RSI)...Any rise above the current 80c will do it...but..there is technical resistance at around this price area..Short term investors (not idiots) may have jumped on board yesterday..Some more short and medium term (technical programmed) investors today and maybe more when (if) the EMA50 breakout as well as the "Amateur Hour" people buying in on the Pita Pit news.
The longer term investors will wait for the downtrend to break and the ema100 breakout.
Why my change in sentiment towards PX1 within the last week or so?
Answer..One simplistic and proven golden rule in investing .."Never buy into a downtrend"
In most cases downtrends don't last forever ..so instead of being an idiot and gamble a large amount of money on a big risk, you apply disciplined patience and wait until that risk become low.
PX1 is worth a watch now because there's a glimmer of light that the price downtrend momentum is weakening and the worm may be turning..Time will tell, until then......
Pita Pit probably bring in a million or so but will cost them a million or four to service
Isn’t that how it works
Wonder what Pita Pit turnover is in NZ and what the marketing budget is ...head franchise and franchisees
Never been in a Pita Pit but one of my daughters tells me she went off them a while ago when they limited how many fillings one could put in a roll and the quality of some ingredients wasn’t as good.
But if they had had Plexure on board then no doubt through harnessing their customer data and providing a seamless experience by adapting our product offering they would have enhanced the customer experience ...rather than driving them away
At the end of the day it is another customer. When they announce another signing next qrt and then another the qrt after that we will be back to the over hyped glory days of the SP steaming towards $1.50 - $2.
No point in selling while they have cash in the bank to fund operations and the valuation of this tech/data company being only $130m odd... WELL ONLY UPSIDE HERE people.
I’m glad that’s pita pit isn’t one of McDonald’s competitors.
At least not many punters selling
Nor many buying
Need that BIG announcement soon
Probably only wiring up the GUI to the API , which can still be a lot of work unless they have an auto generator like CS from south africa have but that has been over 15 years of continuous development.