Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it !
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Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it !
Counting my blessings that's for sure mate and yes see weed a happy man. Not expecting perfect flying conditions going forward but my FA Gutometer values this share around the $2.50-$2.60 level, that's with the competition thing priced in. The weighing machine is working again and the patient will be/have been rewarded for hanging in there.
I agree, you are not alone wanting to offload from what I hear, so expect it to be bumpy, the SP has to survive ex dividend with an uncertain competition cloud which will again be signalled at year end. Low air fuel allows others to keep up the competition while if fuel stayed higher for longer more likely to drop competing routes quicker.
The market is a funny place and short term, it is all about human psychology for the vast majority of investors, traders and watchers than anything to do with fundamentals.
As a sp goes down, those who buys shares to invest long term start having doubts, get fearful and actually sell rather than buy more.
As a sp goes up, those who are looking to sell start getting greedy and actually start buying more.
That's why sp overshoots on the way down and on the way up.
Where is AIR? Tails winds vs head winds now - in the absence of anything adverse happening, my pick is that it will go back to $2.60 - half way between recent lows and highs. Sentiment could push it back up beyond $2.60 but fundamental value (consensus) is around $2.65.
Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.
AIR still happens to be on my watchlist (it is a good company after all, and I used to make money with them) - and it just took its turn for a wee review.
As well - trying to understand some of the hype in this thread ...
Fundamentals:
forward PE: 4.3 - Great ... however, even optimistic analysts predict this year to be the best ... all downhill from here.
average P/E (last 6 years): 15.3; not that flash for a cyclical stock in a downtrend ...
SP to NTA: 1.4 (ok-ish, but I remember times when it was smaller than 1 ... this might be a better time to buy)
Consensus of 6 Analysts (4traders): $2.22 to $2.60 with a mean value of $2.42 and a "Hold" recommendation;
Industry:
Cyclical and many airlines are currently loosing margins due to increasing overcapacity (some are making losses). Rising tensions around the world might put a damper on travel ... though cheap oil is obviously an enabler - and NZ tourism might have another good summer (though not quite sure, how the BREXIT will impact on that).
Trend:
Attachment 8203
Well - hands up, if you think this is an uptrend ...
So - not sure, traders can push it anywhere, but from a fundamental analysis it looks fair valued at best, and the trend speaks for itself.
Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.
Anyway - I will keep them on the long-term watchlist ... I am sure, there will be times I see them again as BUY, but not now. Much more attractive below $1.50 or thereabouts ...
Discl: not holding;
obviously: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy!
I for one always appreciate you sharing your nous BP.Sure looks like AIR is trying to form a new trend but too early to tell imo.Im not far off being in the black and look forward to bailing out of AIR. Tempting to jump after the div without a parachute (i.e. seeing if i can direct my flailing limbs towards that stretchy soft landing net) but many others may be thinking the same.Timing is everything.
World first: Skydiver plummets 25,000 ft -- with no parachute - CNN.com
10 year average PE is about 11. Forecast NTA at 30 June 2016 is $2.01 so price to NTA is only 1.15 using consensus NTA analyst figure. Consensus PE next year is 4.8 taking into account average analysts expected impact on FY17 earnings so trading at well under half the 10 year average PE despite expected effects of extra competition in FY17. Stock looks good value relative to its peers most of whom trade on FY17 PE of circa 6 and most at significantly higher premiums to NTA despite the apparently lacklustre outlook for the sector.
I agree the shares will drop by the amount of the dividend as soon as it goes ex but astute followers of the dividend stripping theory will know the chances of relative outperformance in the few weeks before and after going ex are high on the balance of probabilities.
I'd like to see it crack the 100 day MA line, thanks for the chart and good luck getting them at circa $1.50...there might be one or two people just ahead of you in the queue hunting for value at that price :)
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.
Hmm, yes ... I do prefer to buy undervalued shares, but that's just my personal preference ;). Re the cloudiness of my crystal ball - I guess this is much easier to assess after the event, but you well might be right. It is not always correct, but than - more often than not.
Report landed :mellow: on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR
41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.
QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger