Maybe finally under promising over delivering wouldn't that be nice.
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Sky's core market demographic is older people. As house prices go up they get richer and spend more on discretionary items, like Sky.
The younger generation, in their 20's and 30's, forgo Sky, but once they jump on the property ladder and get their mortgage repayments under control, they then spend on discretionary items, like Sky.
There are no cheaper streaming options. It was $50 to watch Mulan on Disney+. Spark sport is just as expensive with less content. Netflix is competitive but the average consumer is willing to spend more than just $15 per month.
Long term trend is more media consumption. This is not a temporary trend. Average screen time is going up.
Me the last few months on this thread...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PESuwYcK04
As house prices have gone up so has the average age of first home buyers. Increasing house prices may produce "a feel good factor" which may counteract the "feel bad factor" from the epidemic. At the end of the day the increasing value of the house does not provide extra cash (unless the house is sold or downsized) to counteract the drop in investment income and the upcoming risk from the covid recession when subsidies are phased out.
Maybe on the two months 19% up we may see a revised guidence upgrade up a further 5% in the future.
This might be taking into account the conversion of satellite subs to streaming subs. Also some of the existing light-box customers may not renew their subs, once their contracts are up.
Anyways, we could literally tear forecasts from every company apart and assume one has no idea of what they are doing :)
I think they are always intended to be "one-offs" - but if mr Market decides to determine that Sky TV is only worth, say, $100M then they probably do have to write down again.
It can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Anyway, the goodwill they are writing down is mostly a bull**** newspaper asset that doesn't even exist anymore (it was carried over to the balance sheet of Sky Network Television in 2005 when Sky was merged with Independent Newspapers Ltd). I don't care if there are more goodwill write-downs - it is a meaningless 'asset'.