looks like markets in a big confirmed range now , like we posted might happen a while back will be decided next yr which way
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looks like markets in a big confirmed range now , like we posted might happen a while back will be decided next yr which way
https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/23/mystery-chart/
Interesting chart – whether it is bull or bear probably depends on your timeframe. This mystery chart is the Global Dow Jones, an index that tracks 95% of global markets.
The price action since the 2009 lows is engaged in a very large rising wedge. In 2007 the bull trend ended when its steeper wedge broke to the downside following new highs on a negative monthly divergence.
As of this writing the 2009 trend is intact. It has not broken, but is at risk of breaking. The previous trend line tag was established during the 2016 lows. At that time this chart showed a large bullish descending wedge that produced new highs with a run toward the upper trend line that was slightly exceeded during the January 2018 highs.
https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/2...ief-bear-trap/
big rally monday , looks lie trump capitulated
No additional tariffs will be imposed after January 1, and negotiations between the two sides will continue."
unless of course its in the fine print lol that if talks fail tarriffs are back on
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46413196
Finally, it seems it is time to shop boring stocks. Cyclical stocks are moving out of favour.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/inve...to-an-end.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/us-c...-1-report.html
"President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10 percent rate, and not raise it to 25 percent at this time," the statement read. Over the next 90 days, American and Chinese officials will continue to negotiate lingering disagreements on technology transfer, intellectual property and agriculture
okay so it comes down to how the intellectual property disputes pan out oer the 90days so uncertainty remains for a while
USA futures looking Grreeaatt ATPIT DOW plus 500 Nasqaq plus 175
Nasdaq up re 7.7% since 20/11 by my figs
DOW up 6.3% last 5 days
Thats a great rally and an opp to unload some stocks or will the traditional Xmas rally continue. Some good brexit news would be a tonic.
yield curve inverted yesterday for your interest , normally been a reliable signal of recession.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia
Good read .....no doubt has an influence on where markets go
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspe...ver-of-america
g20 jollies are over back to reality of nothing really happened , the markets are pricing back in this. im watching for a retest of lows again unless sp500 goes above 2820 and holds
Dancing around the trapdoor at the moment. Long time to go before market close...
Frightening read - not necessarily worryisome looking into next recession (black Monday), but painting a bleak future for the way some powerful and rich humans look at the rest and how they treat them. And yes, there are indications for their strategy being engaged.
Not a fan of horror stories, but this one is worthwhile reading! Cheers for sharing.
It seems out of character for an optimist like you there winner. Have had a quick read unsure if it is a conspiracy theory crackpot website or not. Which NZ party's policies seem to align with this way of thinking?? Trickle Down economics etc. It has been said in some ways that the central banks supporting financial markets is a form of trickle down economics as the proposition is as long as wealth is protected all will be fine and dandy as everyone will be happy an confident. Strong on law and order, particularly property rights, hmm.. sound like anyone we know, not sure if NZ is as far down the road the US seems to be taking.
Don't know the time delay from the cnn site I look at but looking pretty bleak today although gold is doing well.
https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/
With Trumps loose tongue its hard to know just how much is him and how much is fundamentals but the US (DOW)seems to be on a pattern of lower highs...will this turn into a lower low as well? Or will he just say something a bit more positive about trade and all will be well for a while.
one things for sure ...with him at the helm,if this whole thing goes pear shaped,many will look back and think...''How could we not see this!''
Aaron .... it doesn’t matter whether you are optimistic or pessimistic as long as you know there are some evil people who are/trying to change the world for their own good .....at our expense
People mentioned in that article are typical of them.
One day the populous will really get pissed off and there will be a revolution and the evil will get their comeuppance.
Love what the French protestors achieved overnight ....good on them
Aaron - have you ever read “Deer Hunting With Jesus: Dispatches From America's Class War” by Joe Bageant?
Great book ...Joe wrote a few good books
It's not all about the chief trump in charge..... there are a lot of jitters coming out of the UK facing Brexit melt-down. Here's a small quote from CNN on the subject.
Despite May's strong stance, her plans are widely expected to be rejected, and with only 16 weeks to go before the Article 50 deadline on March 29 -- when Britain officially leaves the EU -- options are running out.
[QUOTE=Left field;740057]It's not all about the chief trump in charge..... there are a lot of jitters coming out of the UK facing Brexit melt-down. Here's a small quote from CNN on the subject.
Despite May's strong stance, her plans are widely expected to be rejected, and with only 16 weeks to go before the Article 50 deadline on March 29 -- when Britain officially leaves the EU -- options are running out.[/QUOTE
Of course there are other issues,but I was referring to the Dow and I believe Trumps comments were the dominant factor...the plunge came on the heels of his comment about China....I believe there are good reasons why the norm was for presidents not to shoot their mouth off all the time. Even Brexit has alot of skin in the game of whether they will get US trade....watch and see what happens if trump says something ill thought out about that issue. just sayin
It will be interesting to see if this forms a lower low,or not
All cool Skid, I think we agree that the recent turbulence in the market has multiple causes..... that said, I was pretty happy the way NZX handled itself today..... we live in interesting times!
Democracy in Chains by Nancy MacLean. It sounds like a conspiracy theory and it is being run like one because as the book says “the American people would not support our plans, so to win they had to work behind the scenes, using a covert strategy instead of open declaration of what they really wanted.”
“Buchanan understood that asking Darden (President of the University of Virginia in 1956) fund what was in essence a political center at a non-profit centre of higher learning was highly inappropriate. To avoid criticism that an organisation with extreme views, or a highly propogandazing agency was being established on campus, he recommended that the center should not have the words “economic liberty” in its name even if this phrase captured the “real purpose of the program.” Page xxiii. It was called the Thomas Jefferson Center for Political Economy and Social philosophy.
By the late 1990s, Charles Koch realized that the thinker he was looking for, the one who understood how government became so powerful in the first place and how to take it down in order to free up capitalism – the one who grasped the need for stealth because only piecemeal, yet mutually reinforcing assaults on the system would survive the prying eyes of the media – was James Buchanan. Koch never lied to himself about what he was doing. Page xxvi.
From then on (late 1990s) Charles Koch contributed generously to turning those ideas into his personal operational strategy to, as the team saw it, save capitalism from democracy permanently. … ideas so ground-breaking, so thoroughly thought out, so rigorously tight, that once put into operation, they could secure the transformation in American governance he wanted.
https://www.bookbrowse.com/bb_briefs...chains#summary
In 2010 the brilliant investigative journalist Jane Mayer alerted Americans to the fact that two billionaire brothers, Charles and David Koch, had poured more than a hundred million dollars into a war against Obama. She went on to research and document how the Kochs and other rich right-wing donaors were providing vast quantities of “dark money” (political spending that, by law, had become untraceable) to groups and candidates whose missions, if successful, would hobble unions, limit voting, deregulate corporations, shift taxes to the less well-off and even deny climate change. Page xvii Democracy in Chains.
Who are 'they'? The financial elite such as big donors, Wall Street bondholders, and advocates of the neoliberal way such as economists, lawyers and bankers including the Fed.
”Advocates of the neoliberal way now occupy positions of considerable influence in education (the universities and many “think tanks”), in the media, in corporate boardrooms and financial institutions, in key state institutions (treasury departments, central banks), and also in those international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization that regulate global finance and trade.” A Brief History of Neoliberalism by David Harvey
was that a crash on the open for us futures down 500pts first 2mins
Yikes that's a massive swing for after hours trading, was up 100 last time I looked, going to be an interesting night
Looks like the bad news is not finished, cash in pockets time again !
carnage for sure , cash is king
i mentioned 2820 , could get ugly if not hold
Could well happen
Henry Blodget (@hblodget)
7/12/18, 6:28 AM
~1000 on the S&P is a 60%+ market drop from here. Sounds nuts, but on a valuation basis, dropping to that level would not be at all surprising. twitter.com/hussmanjp/stat…
nice bounce from the lows 70 pts sp500
US Yield doesn’t look that inverted to me
Sure, the 10/2 is more often cited ... but the 5/2 is already inverted - this is the reason I used this one as example.
Anyway - nothing is certain .. and the current downturn is anyway too early given the typical timelag to the interest rate inversion (6 to 18 months). Must be Trumpmade. One can't really rely on anything ...
BP
Maybe what I was trying to say yesterday is best said by guru aswathdamodaran
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/...ld-curves.html
The current role played by machines, (algo-trading) is excessive in the American market. We all understand that they react quicker than humans, but just like self drive cars there are some seriously dangerous flaws in the logic that blinds them to unusual circumstances. Flash crash is a warmup for flash annihilation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/sell...aboolainternal
The global stage is changing faster than the self centred restricted thinking mode displayed by other waning global players.
https://www.cnbc.com/hong-kong-macau...ilicon-valley/
If the S&P500 falls 60% to 1000 as some commentators reckon what will happen on the NZX ....suppose be sad stories here as well.
They say that 1000 sounds nuts but on a valuation basis, dropping to that level would not be at all surprising.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2018-...050100513.html
Contrarians Made the Right Market Calls in 2018. Here's What They're Saying Now
https://theintercept.com/2017/07/22/...erican-empire/
Donald Trump and the Coming Fall of American Empire
Alfred McCoy: What I think right now is that, through some kind of malign design, Donald Trump has divined, has figured out what are the essential pillars of U.S. global power that have sustained Washington’s hegemony for the past 70 years and he seems to be setting out to demolish each one of those pillars one by one. He’s weakened the NATO alliance; he’s weakened our alliances with Asian allies along the Pacific littoral. He’s proposing to cut back on the scientific research which has given the United States — its military industrial complex — a cutting edge, a leading edge in critical new weapons systems since the early years of the Cold War. And he’s withdrawing the United States, almost willfully, from its international leadership, most spectacularly with the Paris Climate Accord but also very importantly with the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
And he seems to be setting out to systematically demolish U.S. global hegemony. Our share of the global economy has declined substantially. We’re about to be eclipsed by 2030, by China, and become the world’s number two economic power. It’s a more complex world, so the United States can no longer dictate to the world, or at least much of the world, like we could back in the 1950s.
friday session eeded right back at the lows of the range , not unexpected as mentioned to seeweed to not get excited about the upside . anyway this week watching those supports if they dont hold we will probably test the years lows before xmas. oh no no santa this year
heres a good graph of bull/bear markets
https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d
i think the average lenght of a bear market in a non recession is just over a yr .. guessing i am
Drop that size last time was as the result of the GFC, arguably the biggest financial event of a generation. The economic fundamentals are not suggesting another GFC.
Yes being overweight cash is probably a good idea as is looking at skewing one's portfolio towards defensive stocks in healthcare, REIT's, utilities and consumer staples but going to all cash seems a little extreme, (which appears to be the course of action some are implying is wise).
more to what i was saying about no santa rally
As bad luck would have it, Friday's stumble saw Wall Street's benchmark index the S&P500 form a death cross, joining the small-cap Russell 2000 index in the same unhappy boat.
For the statistically minded, according to Reuters death crosses have formed on the S&P500 only 12 times since the Great Depression back in the late 1920s.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-...ction=business
so that means dec/jan will be bad bad bad ...if you belioeve statistics
The last two death crosses in 2016 were followed by very short correction and then a very substantial rally. There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.
What percentage cash have you got in your portfolio Bull ?
80% cash , you need to remember im a trader so i time stuff and follow chart trends and macro trends. the trend is down at the moment so i remain bearish until something changes.
long term investors meaning those who invest for 10yrs or more probably dont care about death crosses etc or bear markets and will most likely just average in as we keep declining.
For what its worth I have 45% cash, (might go to 50% cash over the holidays) and the other 55% is heavily skewed towards defensive shares in the categories mentioned in post #5072. My thinking is its going to be extremely difficult for Trump to get any forward momentum from the Chinese on their theft of intellectual property impasse as this sort of behaviour is deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche as being normal. Copyright in Chinese means we have the right to copy what you have done lol
Good on Trump for having a go to resolve this, I suppose, but the Americans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they think they can change habitual behaviour that's been going on since Adam was a boy. This is why my portfolio is defensive going into 2019.
Yes, a lot of good NZX companies are now well off their highs over the last few months.
Ignoring the likes of SPK, IFT, MFT etc most of the index is probably down about 20% already.... a healthy correction?
Assuming low interest rates in NZ remain to 2020 and beyond, it looks a little overcooked.
I really cant see another 60% drop from here - macro is uncertain, but geez its not that bad is it?
Might see interest rates in the US start heading back down again if growth slows.... too quick too soon?
Attachment 10194
yes im defensive thinking ablout next yr too ... at the moment could change at any time lol but my thinking is nz will slow down , i find it un nerving nz share market isnt keeping pace to the downside with overseas markets makes me think the day of reckoning will come badly the longer it takes. why
trade wars will affect china make them slow down
australia property market slowdown is getting bad
both of these economies are nz biggest trade partners
Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened
For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen
Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh
us futures have dropped below the support of 2620 - 30
On the cusp, hopefully Santa gets stuck halfway down the chimney.
US inflation data out this week be crucial
We are 9 days away from the Fed rate decision. Will they or wont they?
I'm picking they will raise. Most the economists I follow are talking about being almost at the upper bounds of where the Fed wants to be and a rate hike is warranted. December is also a month people are too distracted by xmas and new years to care.
Interesting times ahead!! Stocking up on Yen!
I see it like musical chairs, no one wants to be the last man standing, so the big players are getting out and that takes months. The market won’t go up unless the big players are buying. I see us heading for another GFC, the big US banks are bigger than they were in 2007, few of the reforms required to stop another GFC happening have been put in place, there is risky lending and behaviour. There is more debt now than in 2007. It is ten years on from GFC. A crisis happens about every ten years - 1987 crash and in 1998 Long-Term Capital Management Hedge Fund Crisis.
To save the U.S. banking system, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough convinced 15 banks to bail out LTCM. They spent $3.5 billion in return for a 90 percent ownership of the fund.
That was the precedent for the Fed's bailout role during the 2008 financial crisis. Once financial firms realized that the Fed would bail them out, they became more willing to take risks.
https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240
Who knows what will trigger the crisis, or when it will happen but pressure is building.
broke support heading for test now of feb lows
also important china attacks apple in trade war
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/chin...nst-apple.html
brexit vote cancelled means more uncertainty
Getting like this on NZX ....the long slide down that started earlier in the year continues
Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders)
11/12/18, 6:40 AM
As of about an hour ago, more than 50% of the S&P’s 500 stocks were down more than 20% from their 52w highs @bespokeinvest
Well my overall portfolio has just slipped into the red for the first time this year, I won't put the figure it was up earlier but were talking a very large sum wiped off the table.
today was a good day as an example of change of sentiment on us markets . opened up 400 pts on dow now down 60 odd sell the rips is the new motto for the foreseeable future
Testing times indeed, if we break these support lines we may find the "asleep at the wheel index funds" overreact.
Attachment 10195
Yes agreed, and there seems to be a reluctance to push through this level this year, the constant ambient noise of Trade Tarrifs, Brexit and Global slowdown doesn’t seem to be enough of a shock. Hence moving sideways. Correction vs Bear only becomes meaningful in hindsight once an upward trend emerges.
just now another example of the range , i had mentioned 2620 sp500 as a level to watch we got within 2 pts and has now rallied 20 pts since
bull must be sleeping in, Thunderbirds are all go today and we haven't heard from him yet.
traders sold the rally again in the us. waiting for may vote could tank things