I believe it was a sharesies scare out, they didn't want another blackwell or canna so spooked and ran causing it to drop after a few bigger players took profits early
Printable View
I believe it was a sharesies scare out, they didn't want another blackwell or canna so spooked and ran causing it to drop after a few bigger players took profits early
Fair call.
very interesting to see what happens next year things could turn around for this share if the right moves are made, Broadband is exciting! heck even i would think about getting Sky if the Multi package was attractive enough not to mention i could see it as a great tool for retention!
Landscape around streaming is such a fast changing sector and there are some BIG players at the moment would not buy in to risky for me hah!
From page 13 2020 annual report - customer quotes
"I also love how we can purchase individual movies to watch as a family cheaper than going to the actual movies! Bonus!”
I was surprised people still used those payper view channels to book movies.
Rentals will be available on Neon as well. Nothing there yet but the feature is there already.
You can rent on NEON if you use the website or on the Vodafone TV app.
Anything you rent from there will appear on your smartphone app.
I have an iPhone and an AppleTV 4K. I can’t browse and rent from the apps on those platforms yet - but if I rent the movie from the NEON website I can consume it from either of those apps.
Hopefully the iOS apps are upgraded soon so I can rent from there without having to go to the website.
Thanks for sharing your view. I don't disagree with a lot of what you say. There are certain headwinds with content creators going OTT. However, my view is that there's still enough content out there to fill the bundles.
These are the plusses IMO: +Rugby rights, +RugbyPass +other sports +Olympics +Covid Vaccine + ~1million existing customers +data + ip advertising +Broadband +Sales Team +Sky as a marketing platform.
Sky's not the company that it was, it's transforming, so I'm happy to wait it out. To me, it's so undervalued & underrated (note: I didn't say cheap). A lot of people have legacy views. Sky is the aggregator for NZ. I don't think that will change.
I believe you may have miss understood the business model of SKY :)
Netflix, Amazon Prime have been around for a while now. Are they going to replace SKY? Maybe for some. But perhaps not the majority. The proof lies with 900K odd customers subscribing to SKY.
There are number of streaming providers similar to SKY in America and running successfully. Few examples - Sling TV, DIRECTV, FIOS, YoutubeTV & HULU(content). The home market for Netflix and giants.
SKT is not a content creator. I believe they should never get into it. That isn't their business model.
Piracy - For someone that is into piracy, is never going to subscribe to any medium.
Their issue has been reacting very slow to changes around them. They are only starting to fix things now. eg)streaming
Anything they do, they need to act swiftly. Not just talk about things.
- Broadband can be launched a lot sooner. Still vague with no concrete dates.
- New streaming box - Launch date - sometime in future.
I believe these are some of the issues that need fixing. If they are serious about making changes and being a nimble company.
I truly believe, their power lies in the 900k subscriptions they currently hold for now. It's how they harness these, that will make or break SKT :)
The bots are playing their part too in the manufacture of hysteria on this stock. I watched the bots push SKT down through their high frequency selling at the last second of trading on the ASX. They sold 632 shares to push the sp down 0.5 cents to close from 14c to 13.5c. About an $85 order.
The bots are pushing the share price down to flush the sharesies and other holders out who might consider selling forcing them to panic so their clients who have buy orders out can pick up a bargain. (Should be illegal IMO as its pretty close to stock manipulation. They'll cross a certain amount back to themselves in a big order to continue pushing the price down when they're out of ammo / shares.)
Sharesies crowd are predisposed to panic sell if they don't make their 20% per day on their $1,000 worth of shares. And when you multiply that by their enormous numbers its not good when their are more sellers than buyers. That said, it is good when it works the other way. Just look at afterpay or Tesla.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...ness-writedown
The focus should be "Adjusting for the write down it made a profit of $41m." :)
I'm under the assumption it's bot trading mixed with sharesies. So the bits are creating mini panic. I'm seeing it with a few company's atpu d results time. Ikegps is a prime example. Result came out. I thought it was a great result. Price went down people panicked. Then announment of capital raise price has shot up to almost $1.00.
Head scratching.
Sky result was good. Price goes down. So now I'm thinking two weeks time a climb to 17cents 18 cents.
Haven't followed this until the last few days. Used to be too expensive and then too unpromising. Seems to have looked up but what I can't understand is that the words pump and dump don't seem to have cropped up anywhere in recent postings.
i dont know the reasons why you brought the stock , but in my opinion the business is still terminal unless like a said earlier the covid lifeline the companies got can be used to save it.
as some people have said 1 year sounds reasonable to make the most of the situation to go from terminal to turn around.
Actually I see now entrep at 3:26 yesterday said pnd.
No I have no knowledge of anyone's buying and selling.
some of you might be interested in this
Sky Network Television disappointed some investors, falling 10.8 percent to 14.8 cents—the day’s biggest loss. The company raised its earnings guidance due to a faster return of sports than it envisaged in May, but the share price had been run up more than 20 percent ahead of the result.
“Just dropping back to where they were on Tuesday,” Sullivan said.
There was heavy retail interest in the stock, but an analyst's report from Macquarie on Monday had attracted some institutional buying as well.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...h-wall-st.html
Heard Mr Stewart on the radio yesterday saying Broadband is being trialed at present with around 150 staff and I think he said will trial with some customers very soon
You are allowed to post ‘pump & dump’. Not a problem. I suspect the Sharesies brigade had their tail feathers plucked yesterday.
I still have my shares bought at a good level and am happy to hold as imo there will be a corporate deal done - be it takeover or merger. This is where the industry is at. Matter of time.
Morningstar (who i feel are more bullish about sky):
Sports Cost Relief Provides a Temporary Sugar Hit but Transition to New Sky Is Ongoing
Investors should not extrapolate Sky's better-than-expected fiscal 2020 second-half normalised EBITDA of NZD 91 million. Beating management's projected AUD 53 to 73 million range for the June-half was driven by the NZD 19 million saved from coronavirus-induced sports rights and production cost hiatus in the fourth quarter. The overly pessimistic lens through which the guidance was given back in the lockdown days of May 2020 also played a role. Indeed, fiscal 2021 EBITDA guidance of NZD 125 to 140 million (from NZD 193 million in fiscal 2020) shows the higher costs associated with the recently renegotiated sports rights, and the ongoing burden of Sky's transformation journey to become a multiplatform subscription service provider.
To that end, further groundwork has been laid. Culturally, there no longer appears to be any paralysis over cannibalisation impact on the legacy pay TV unit from the streaming growth initiatives. The decision to pivot the current CFO Blair Woodbury's focus to a broader strategic role underscores Sky's effort to bring in fresh, platform-agnostic thinking.
Operationally, management's implied flat cost projection for fiscal 2021 shows progress on the expense front to offset the higher content costs. Financially, the balance sheet has been replenished by the recent NZD 150 million capital raising. There is NZD 111 million cash on hand to repay NZD 100 million (maturing March 2021), and NZD 200 million in undrawn debt facility (maturing July 2023) to execute the transformation program—a war chest we do not expect Sky to dip into in fiscal 2021 given our forecast free cash flow of NZD 50 million.
Investor trepidation about the execution of this transformation task, at a time of fierce competition for home entertainment eyeballs, is palpable. However, shares in no-moat-rated Sky are at a substantial discount to our unchanged NZD 0.30 fair value estimate (AUD 0.28 at the current exchange rate)—enough margin of safety to back the management.
Morningstar's Brian Han's Analysis of Sky this morning is quite good & fair (and he's usually quite bearish).
Their fair value price is NZ 0.30c
https://premium.morningstar.com.au/i...P00006Y72/take
You can sign-up for a free 14 days subscription on that link or on their site.
(You beat me to it QE!)
Morningstar has no or little credibility - like Edison.
Will be interesting to see if more upgrades follow in the next week from the big boys in higher forecast earnings.
Wild day yesterday probably wild day today.
GL all
Updated Forsyth Barr report.
http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=...86998448153842
Maintain NEUTRAL rating
Sky TV's (SKT) FY20 provided something for everyone. For the bulls, SKT delivered strong cost control and impressive freecash flow (FCF) in the 2H, further buttressing the recently recapitalised balance sheet. For the bears, there remains littletangible evidence that SKT can meaningfully offset its sharply declining satellite revenue. Questions remain as to what theeconomics of SKT's business model looks like in an increasingly streaming world — we doubt many were answered in today'sresult. Maintain NEUTRAL.
A difficult bridge to a streaming world
SKT's FY20 was largely in line with expectation and company guidance, but reiterated the transformation challenges thecompany faces. Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 has had an impact on advertising (compounding a downward trend) and commercial(hospitality, accommodation) revenue. Of more structural significance, high value satellite subscriber revenue continued to fallsharply, down -8% or -NZ$48m. SKT continues to struggle to find a meaningful offset. Streaming revenue did increase by +34%/NZ$15m, however, the bulk came from the acquisitions of RugbyPass and Lightbox — we estimate organic growth over the year wasonly c.NZ$2–3m. EBITDA (ex. impacts of IFRS 16 accounting changes and one-off costs) declined -NZ$89m or -32%.
Impressive free cash flow
SKT reacted rapidly to the COVID-19 impacts, cutting opex (incl. 18% of labour) and capex, as well as benefitting from reducedprogramming (rights and production) costs due to less live sport. The 2H highlight was the strong FCF (albeit helped significantly byworking capital timing) taking SKT to a NZ$8m net cash position at year end. We expect FCF to remain healthy near-term.FY21 guidance was upgraded from that provided at May's equity raise (now revenue -6–12% to NZ$660–700m, underlying EBITDA-27–35% to $125–140m, underlying NPAT -51–63% to NZ$15–20m). We continue to view SKT's guidance as conservative(understandable given the current uncertain backdrop) and our forecasts sit slightly above the top end of the range.
Uncertainty ahead, with a broad range of potential outcomes
SKT is endeavouring to position itself as NZ’s aggregator of sporting and entertainment content in a streaming world. We believe, thatlong-term, SKT is positioned to potentially fill that role, however, the economics remain highly uncertain. Uptake of streaming is notyet close to offsetting the decline in satellite. SKT plans to offer broadband from early CY21, however, competition is intense (>80competitors) and capturing material margin will not be easy. Near-term, SKT's earnings will also be pressured by the lift in SANZAAR/NZ Rugby broadcast rights to c.NZ$110m pa vs. the current c.NZ$60–70m starting in 2021. We recognise there is a wide margin oferror to any valuation assessment of SKT, but at the current share price we (1) believe investors are effectively paying option valuefor SKT's potential to formulate a long-term sustainable business model, and (2) view the investment risks as balanced; NEUTRAL.
They also only have 3 ratings: Outperform, Neutral, and Unperformed.
Summary:
Whilst we expect disruptive pressures on SKT's earnings will not abate any time soon, at the current share price investors are effectively only paying option value for the potential SKT is successful in repositioning itself as NZ's aggregator of sporting and entertainment content in a streaming world. We view the investment risks as balanced; NEUTRAL.
large broker
FY20 was a bad year for SKT, with EBITDA down more than 30%. Increased costs, rather than Covid, was a key driver of that, alongside ongoing revenue pressure. FY21 earnings guidance was encouraging on revenue but disappointing on costs. With SKT making the necessary move to a stronger streaming proposition we worry about cannibalisation adding to the nearer-term pressures on revenues. Greater clarity on opex is required, should revenue continue to decline. Uncertainty will remain until SKT stabilise revenue and right-size costs – a challenging transition given competition and SKT’s dual-platforms. Retain Neutral. Target price $0.17 (from $0.16), driven by small upgrade to operating forecasts. Key risks are Covid, competition and execution ability.
Would sky be in a position to outbid Spark for Sanzar rights in 2026 given declining revenues? Surely there comes a point where the ROI doesn't add up.
ASB recommendation update: BUY: 30C valuation
Anyone got Fat Prophets recommendation? They seem to be the most bullish.
Here come the sharesies orders
Lots of buyers this morning...
Last Change Buy Sell Open High Low VWAP Volume Turnover $0.151 https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/Content...ransparent.png0.3* 2% $0.151 $0.152 $0.150 $0.151 $0.150 $0.150 1,014,579 $152,289
Buyers Buy Quantity Prices 1 47,590 $0.151 87 613,625 $0.150 10 139,444 $0.149 10 59,561 $0.148 5 83,247 $0.147 7 67,052 $0.146 10 258,068 $0.145 2 700,000 $0.144 4 211,698 $0.143 2 205,256 $0.142 138 2,385,541
Prices Sell Quantity Sellers $0.152 19,693 4 $0.153 301,000 2 $0.154 54,586 3 $0.155 372,562 6 $0.156 134,914 3 $0.157 48,000 1 $0.158 130,864 3 $0.159 334,356 3 $0.160 252,656 12 $0.161 207,219 3 1,855,850 40
interesting brokers mention ‘execution risk’ — Suppose we have to have faith in their ability.
Potentially, but that's a long time away. Sky would generated significant income by then.
Sky is in a better position than Spark as it has the revenue to pay for the content. Spark is effectively buying the content and then doing prepay. It's yet to be seen weather their recent Cricket NZ purchase will pay off. Sport is only one part of Sky' business, the most important part yes, but there is alot more content on there than just rugby. Would be a huge blow if they lost the rugby but there would also be cost savings without it. It would be impossible to know what would happen with the share price.
Wow ...love the response to analyst/brokers
Do they actually mean anything? Or is just that they give some the warm fuzzies .....and comfort.
It could run back to 16 if not 17 in the short term
15c looks like a strong base here. Just slightly lower than most broker valuations. Smart money would be accumulating here and waiting for corporate activity over the coming months. Every week Sky generates about $1m. It's like having a savings account.
Not enough volume to move the SP. ASX open and punters acting on MorningStar report may push it up.
ceo stewart just brought 250000 shares this morning
Boss just brought a few.. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/359632
Martin Stewart buying at 15c
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...632/330573.pdf
Nice show of confidence
$37,000 prob not going to break his bank
Still owns less than me...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-H1T7ny2Uw
Martin buying a non event
Chairman Phil not buying
The offer is still on the table I presume, but the new fallback position will be the $8.3B of Bonus Bonds money straight into SKT.
I was impressed Skytv didn’t take the Covid Subsidy like so many other large businesses, that cap raised and took as much as they could; looking at their financials they would’ve been eligible. From my point of view not taking advantage of it is pretty admirable.
It would’ve added a chunk to their bottom line.
Good to see Martin putting some of his own money in on market price as well.
GL all, weak hands sold yesterday, company has a long road ahead but looks like they are doing It correctly and heading in the right direction at least until they aren’t as tech moves so quick.
This looks like a sweat job.
https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50547549
Free Sky and Neon. Work from home. Just take the odd phone call.
I'm gonna apply.
This one looks even better...
https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50546887
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJh5wdvdfVE
It's interesting to see a few C level managers buying. There was a big purchase (over 100k) a few months ago @ 12 cents.
I wanna see Blair “dem gains” Woodbury buy some more.
Blair's new role....
https://www.denofgeek.com/wp-content...to_college.jpg
Blair and Handley FY21
https://images-wixmp-ed30a86b8c4ca88...pRiWd-4SmQInhY
I see Aussie pinched the rugby championship from NZ.
Sucks for NZ, but great for Sky. All those punters who would have gone to the matches will either watch it at home or at the pub (if COVID doesn’t ruin the party).
Second wave to 0.16 soon. Someone is buying. Hope they are long term investors.
Didn't the rest if the exec team get the email to support the share price (by buying some) and show their confidence