Maybe you could just get the crystal ball into action again Pat and tell us what the report says? It would save us all a lot of anguish waiting for the good news to be revealed.
Printable View
The bank not open till the morning.
pierre,
Not much luck, starts with Bonjourno but very cloudy after that. The light in the vault was not that great.
The report is about 13 pages but the only words, part words i could see were, in order
.oto bu..o: brutto: .llev... (might be alleviate): nicenca: bene res..iane: ore.ch.:
Looks like Italian, could be some experts over there perhaps?
The fee was in Euro but all i could work out was that it was a 4 figure amount, so not spending heaps.
Andrew's 31 page report out
Think it says BLT worth around 9 cents now
Bug numbers on his S-curve
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/241758.pdf
Good guy that Andrew and pretty clued up
Winner, I don't believe it. You've become a total convert, I do believe!
Anyway, that report should set the cat amongst the pigeons. Depends if anyone sees it, I suppose.
Also depends if anyone believes it.
BLT
22/08/2016 08:53
RESEARCH
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0853 HRS BLIS Technologies Limited
RESEARCH: BLT: Independent Research Report
22nd August 2016
NZX - For Immediate Release
At the Annual Shareholders' Meeting on 29 July we advised that, in the light
of our recent achievements and the increased activity on the share register,
in order to better inform existing and potential shareholders Blis
Technologies Limited ("Blis") is commissioning an independent research report
that will be released to the market.
We attach herewith that report prepared by Andrew Mortimer of Eastbourne
Advisory Limited ("EAL"). The opinions contained in the report including any
forward looking statements and forecasts are those of EAL at the time of
publication.
Although commissioned by Blis Technologies Limited the report has been
prepared and issued by EAL for publication. All information used in the
publication of the report has been compiled by EAL from publicly available
sources that are believed to be reliable. However, neither Blis nor EAL
guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report.
Brian Watson
Chief Executive Officer
End CA:00287583 For:BLT Type:RESEARCH Time:2016-08-22 08:53:53
An excellent report which I enjoyed reading.
That report had a whole lot of detail that I have been keen to see for a while. For instance, finally the news that functional food is not a priority following being burnt trying the ice cream (presumably the push for profit comes first?). Also much discussion on a market by market basis. Also news that the problem in the US was triggered by the tiny point of the labelling for an import being "dietary supplement" instead of "ingredients for a dietary supplement". Wow!
That report predicts revenue of 12m in 2018 and 18m in 2019. And $100m by 2025. p21. All very hard to predict obviously, as he says himself, and so I'm not sure that there is a lot of point in presuming those figures are more likely than others, although he creditably and helpfully explained his reasoning in depth, which I enjoyed reading. I'm hoping for more growth myself in the shorter term, but again that is just a guess. He is predicting a 1m cash gain over the current year. p22.
He paints a company that (as I read it) essentially could be described as (a) sitting in a pretty good position, but (b) subject to considerable uncertainty. Well, that would be fair comment surely. I didn't really feel he actually tried terribly definitely to value it, more describe the considerable range of considerations in play. I see why you say he valued it at 9 cents, but I'm not sure that I would exactly put it that way myself.
I would perhaps mention the possible discussion points: Blis has other trade secret products of which we know nothing; Blis is hoping to profit from marketing expertise rather than straight scientific efficacy, which may have a range of possible outcomes in market share; nobody knows how big the oral probiotic market may eventually be (comparing it to the existing yoghurt-dominated market is helpful but not necessarily correct, and he makes that very point himself.)
Anyway, an excellent report and I have enjoyed reading it. A very solid contribution indeed to the consideration of BLT as a share. I thought he really understood the company very well indeed, and also expressed his ideas very clearly. What will the market do, I wonder?
Am I correct in this understanding: there are many bodies that cannot buy Blis shares unless there is an analysis report (such as this one) and so the point of such a report is not to try and drag in the punters but rather to open the door to a lot of investors who are now free to buy BLT? Or have I just imagined that somehow?
Most fund managers cannot invest in a company until certain criteria are met - this may or may not include a research report. More critical to them are factors like integrity of management and board (#1), quality and growth potential of business, risk profile etc. A research report can help address these issues.
Then there are some (like Milford and Harbour) who actually prefer no research for small caps as they have their own analysts and can invest well ahead of the pack when they see a good opportunity.
Bliss has been around a long long time and have had quite a number of analysts from the likes of Milford look closely at them.
Check the register and if you see the likes of Milford in there, that is usually a very good sign.
Punters like it
BLT top of the leader board today
Thanks, Balance.
p21 refers to a projection (in the table) of 0.1 cents in 2018 and 0.3 cents in 2019. p22 refers to $1.5m total dividends in 2018 and $3.3m in 2019. But that was just the report's guess, I would have said. Didn't see a 1.5 cent dividend suggestion myself?
I'm not sure we can place too much weight on projected figures given all the uncertainty. The report was upbeat though, to use our new favourite adjective.
The report was called "Backing The Good Guys". I think that must be a reference to the probiotics themselves, and was therefore intended to be a brief statement of the purpose of the business?
The company got this report out pretty quickly. That matches a continuing pattern of activity we're seeing lately. Good to see.
One explanation for this would lie in the increased cash flow making it possible for the company to do more and more quickly, that the days of struggling are largely in the past. That would also imply faster progress in future too.
We've been seeing good news out of the company continuously for about 3 or 4 years now. It's all very encouraging. The big news we want, of course, is what the revenue will be in the next 2 to 5 years, to get an idea of where this journey is finally taking us. Every 6 months will bring us more news there, but a pity we cannot accelerate time. Still, we can enjoy the ongoing good news.
Don't like the reference to "Rubicon" in the first bullet point. Bad omen.
Just going out now - to throw a pinch of salt over a black cat's shoulder before I cross my fingers. . .
On further cogitation of the report:
p8. China: lozenge difficult legally presently so current strategy to maximise food and powder opportunities. Could be good news, as I remain convinced that the food route remains a very valuable one, whereas p13 says functional food not a priority (understandably as the other market is working well) so a chance to maybe advance things out of simple necessity.
p8 China, going for powder. p9. Japan: Blis has seen significant growth in the dental channel. Does this refer to the Brian brand, which is a dental powder instead of toothpaste? Could go down well in China then, maybe? Personally, I have hardly ever used any toothpaste for several years now, instead relying on all those billions of Blis microbes from the lozenges, and my dentist is always really impressed with my teeth.
Overall, the picture painted is one of "can the marketing gain access to the potentially huge markets?", I would have said. This probably paints more clearly why the company is talking marketing all the time, not just to change orientation but because the next barrier is to get into the markets that others already have.
But interesting to ask if others really do already have those markets? Is Blis carving out a new road of its own maybe? Given the CEO's background, I imagine he is really relishing testing that question in reality.
So overall I would maybe read this as: Blis has a great product and has made some great progress, but can it hit the big time? That would be a question we all want to know the answer to! To me, that shows that the writer really did "get" what Blis is and where it is. A solid report.
The report makes an interesting point about tax losses, p17. Assuming the tax losses still stand, then they will mean the company does not have to pay taxes on profits, but will not be available for imputation so shareholders will still have to pay tax on dividends anyway. This matches my own understanding that imputation credits are only available for actual cash the company has paid the tax department, which it obviously hasn't done on losses or offset profits.
Yet this still seems pretty weird to me. Yes, the company can use those losses to build up its balance sheet therefore (by not paying tax for a bit) but it doesn't benefit the shareholders in current tax. Anyone able to comment on this oddity?
Hi Simla.........sorry havnt had a chance to fully digest this report yet but on the surface I see it as a positive yet balanced overview of things as they stand......and going forward. It certainly doesnt come across to me as a "paid for" valuation as some are suggesting.........but I'll read on. All in all I detect a tone of valid growing optimism for the company with some potentially huge prospects there for the future (China) ........should things continue to fall into place. In regard the tax losses the bean counters may well decide that any dividend may be increased due to these available tax losses ....so yes us S/Holders could get some benefit depending how they handle it?? Either way, Happy Holder here.
Correct. But if they do build up a cash surplus (surely they would use for expansion rather than return to SH), then they could do a capital distribution. Can't remember exact rules but distribution needs to be more than 10% of market value and no more than the capital paid into the company to qualify as not subject to tax.
Thanks for that.
.......printed report should be in our hands by end of week apparently.......according to some old rocker "there ain't nothing like the real thing baby".....gotta agree with that sentiment.
Would this be a big issue? As long as the shares are consolidated for everyone then you'll still have the same stake in the company.
I think I read something about them considering doing this but it would cost something like $30k which would be a poor use of funds at this stage.
In the report, the analyst lists quite a few risks. What matters with risks is how they are managed and IMO this should be the #1 focus of management. I'd like to see some evidence of strong mitigation activity.
Risks, summarised. Pretty good list, but nothing about key staff / succession planning I note. :
- Customer concentration
- Failure to successfully implement strategies.
- Changes in regulations or laws.
- Contamination of products.
- Exchange rate risks.
- Liquidity risk.
- Small companies generally carry higher levels of risk.
All is quiet. We are getting closer to the end of sales for the first 6 months of 2016. Wonder if we are ahead or marginally behind projected sales. :)
But wait there is more.... this from the recent 'independent report' by Eastbourne Advisory Ltd.
"After 15 years as a listed entity, Blis appears to have crossed the Rubicon on its pathtowards profitability. At its AGM “the company said it “has reached a critical point where the revenue being generated allows it to cover its basic cost structure” and that “the strong sales growth being experienced reflects growing acceptance of the underlying science of Blis products, particularly in the US, Europe and Japan”.
Why we like the story is that probiotic, sore throat and supplement markets are in growth mode, Blis revenues are showing growth well in excess of market growth and the company has regulatory acceptance in most major markets. The business also has high gross margins, in the sector it operates, there are few probiotic competitors, antibiotic competitors are seeing increases in bacterial resistance and anew branded strategy to us looks like the right path to take. Further, recent revenue surprises have all been positive. "
So all looks fine.... except one wonders why bother with an 'independent report?' Maybe Apathy is right.
News Release
For immediate release
September 22, 2016
Blis Technologies Wins Two Awards in Deloitte Fast 50
NZX-listed Blis Technologies Limited last night received two Otago Southland awards in the Deloitte Fast 50 at an event in Dunedin last night. Fast 50 takes place in 32 countries around the world, and the Deloitte Fast 50 ranks and celebrates fast-growing companies.
Blis won the awards for Fastest Growing Exporter and Fastest Growing Mature Business and was confirmed as one of the national Fast 50 companies.
CEO Brian Watson said the awards were due to a lot of hard work from a lot of people.
“We have been focusing on improving systems, concentrating effort in specific offshore markets and developing a solid strategy especially related to our finished goods. It takes time and teamwork and these awards help remind us that the work we are doing creates results.”
In the last three years Blis has grown revenue by over 100 percent each year, going from a turnover of $NZ1.3 million in FY2014 to a $NZ5.6 million in FY2016.
“Our guidance to the market for FY2017 is for a trading revenue in excess of $NZ8 million and to deliver a net profit before tax in excess of $0.7m.”
It won those awards for the Dunedin and lower South Island sector, which makes it sound a bit limited. In fact, however, the main point is that Blis is one of the top 50 fastest growing companies in NZ by revenue.
"The Fast 50 index ranks the top 50 businesses in New Zealand according to their revenue growth over the past three years." http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/8449...ners-announced
Well deserved after very much hard work. And obviously we hope it reappears in the awards every year for some time now!!
if you read the article and do a little home work,
you will see that not one of these companies lost millions upon millions of shareholder wealth over a decade.
nor are most, if not all of the other companies older than a few years.
if the truth be told....... in this award ceremony....... blt would not be a real winner.
but hey ....... whats wrong with a bit of statistics play and word smithing.
anything to get the share price up.
if memory serves me......... the board stated that things were in dia straits a few years ago........ and the share-price mysteriously crashed to point one of a cent
just as "new" share holders were moving in...........
talk about pumping!
not that i'm upset..... i would love to get back my one dollar per share.
Blis's road has definitely been a slog. We'll find out how real it all is over the next couple of years. Starting with the November half year report.
From comments we can assume they expect to meet Guidance figures.
Alls well.
Not entirely, if so. Growth is not a neat bar graph of yearly growth, but a continually compounding curve, changing real-time.
$8m was forecast nearly six months ago. Remember that the company confirmed it was already at that level in the July 28 update. It would be interesting if the revenue levels did not grow further in the remaining 8 months of the financial year after that? However, the award statement did not give an update but merely repeated the announced guidance, as I read it anyway.
I think the final revenue figure for the year is of some importance for judging the future. The current guidance is "in excess of $NZ8 million" and it will be interesting to see if that is what is repeated in the November report.
Thanks Simla,
Points taken, my thought was that, no change since July update, so all well.
Okay, new thread was started, voted down seemingly. So I'm posting this to bump the old thread back into circulation.
Share price already up 8% for the day on news of the old thread being restored ... :)
Newbie Question
Given How many shares have been issued (Shares Issued 1,107,653,565)
would a share price of $1 ever be realistic for this stock without share consolidation?
That would require one of the following:
1. A very large increase in revenue - which is possible given the market penetration already achieved in NZ but scaled out into larger markets, but taking quite some time presumably and requiring good luck too maybe.
2. Achieving a similar effect by launching other products already in the lab, which products are vaguely hinted at from time to time, but we have no knowledge of how imminent any are or what potential lies therein over what time scale or even if any exist.
3. Achieving the same effect by leveraging the Blis brand name to take in other products - which recent reports may or may not indicate could be part of the future plan, that the brand name itself becomes a valuable asset.
4. Widespread speculation in the BLT share price, as happens from time to time in NZ for no obvious cause that I've ever understood and certainly cannot be banked on.
$1 is not impossible, but no knowing if or when. Sheer speculation really. And don't forget that share prices don't always only go up!
Blis has achieved break even finally. But we are still none the wiser on where it goes next.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA
I have 400,000 of these so personally I hope Dale Kerrigan is very wrong.
Nice one....tho' nothing wrong with dreaming. I see BLT is back to 5 again late today (on tiny volumes) so perhaps we also better go back to that new thread!?
BTW can't help thinking fluctuations like today seem to be the norm with BLT (and other penny dreadfuls). I would only get concerned with BIG volumes on a down day.
Most long term holders will be waiting the next update from the company with interest.
BLT has been running a 10% spread between bid and offer for quite a long time now, so 5 cents vs 5.4 cents is nothing new.
(ps. We still love you, Patrick. Just a little mini-drama to show we're all human :) )
Dear Admin: I found two threads on BLT. How about merging those two threads?
Unlike those days there are two things that we should pay attention when we buy financial and tech related stocks. There will be great returns as well as great risks. We should see more volatility in these sectors in the coming decade. However, we should be able to get some mid and long term capital gain as well as long term shareholder value by identifying strong companies in advance. Strong tech and financial stocks should outperform weak tech and financial companies in the mid and long run.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/mar...logies-LimitedBLIS Technologies (New Zealand) Risk Analysis
Finally, New Zealand is capable of starting some strong tech companies. Investment in this area is weak when compare with some other countries.
As investors we should find growing tech companies having long term businesses. Some tech companies cannot generate businesses for the long run. Strong competitors will drive out weak competitors in the market.
I believe this is just another proof http://www.branded-ingredients.com/n...rition_031016/
After ten days on my knees, with abstinence, may I return?
Nice one, Patrick. What would we do without a little bit of fun and games every now and then?
By now the company obviously knows the first half revenue, and presumably profit. They haven't made any announcement, so it is not too unexpected, but still room for some surprise in the November report presumably. The implication is that "in excess of $8 million" is looking safe, so already we are very interested in what to expect next year. Compounding up from that level could point to some big figures ... or not. Still the waiting to do.
BLT remains on track!
4:30pm, 20 Oct 2016 | FORECAST
HALF YEAR RESULT
Blis Technologies Limited announces their first half interim results (unaudited) with trading revenues of $3.84 million, EBITDA of $0.73 million and a net income before tax of $0.43 million. This represents 41% revenue growth over the corresponding period last year.
In spite of a strong New Zealand dollar, the company expects no change to FY2017 guidance of trading revenues in excess of $8 million and net income before tax in excess of $0.7 million.
Brilliant. Their first genuinely reported profit ever, even if only half year so far and not yet audited. Further, I would take the EBITDA as the more meaningful figure given the unimportance (in my mind) of depreciation for Blis and the absence of debt, which is presumably on track for $1.5m annual.
Haven't changed their forward guidance, but have already exceeded the 0.7m profit track. Looking very nice so far. Also, Blis tends to sell better in winter (in my memory) and the northern hemisphere winter is still coming, so no knowing where that will lead.
Also they hint that the value of the NZD has impacted to their disadvantage, so good to get the result regardless of that.
........just what the doctor ordered, CONSISTENCY and SUSTAINED GROWTH. Happy holder (and gatherer)
Another point to note is that that was the first result completely under the new CEO . Let's be honest that changing CEO's is one of those risky moments in life!
Well, has he proved a safe pair of hands? Yes, big tick. Whew! Well done.
Will he now go on to be a major asset as well? Well, time will tell, but I'm starting to get some good feelings on that front.
So I'm thinking that maybe we should also be feeling good that not only have we had a safe switch of CEOs but that a very good choice has been made. Welcome aboard, mate! And the Board continues to sit unassumingly in the background deserving more notice than they are attracting. And all the hard working staff. Well done, one and all. Thank you.
Pleasing to see the consistency in Blis forecasts, after years of missing the mark. On 28/7/16 I posted that Blis will turnover $10M this financial year. Simla is correct the northern hemisphere winter is much stronger for sales, with 80% of their sales now off shore and if they can achieve a similar 41% lift in sales as they had in this period, then the end of year result could be very Blisfull. I will stick to my $10M prediction. But reserve the right to increase it, if they get China on board this year.
.....couldnt agree more SIMLA, big ticks all round. Im picking the markets will look VERY favourably upon this.......consistancy is held in high regard by the bean counters and advisors as it obviously allows them to make the forecasts investors depend upon. Perhaps now more of them will start to sit up and take notice of this CONSISTANT growth story. Go you good thing.
Want a summer job Simla? ;)
https://sexysummerjobs.com/whos-look...chnologies-ltd
I'm probably overqualified :)
Good news though that they are hiring more staff, even if short term. "We have entered a phase of significant growth and development ". The marketing intern is obviously big extra investment in the website information. And the R&D guy, "Examples of projects include supporting: (a) development of a new skin probiotic strain, (b) profiling of early-phase potential probiotic candidates and (c) identifying mechanisms of killing action of existing probiotic strains. Each project has substantial commercial value for the company. " All definitely the actions of a company expecting to go somewhere. Thanks for finding that, Emearg.
Meanwhile the market continues to play it pretty cool over BLT. Well, the numbers will eventually catch up with that, we hope, but we may have to wait 6 months for any serious change in outlook unless the November report carries some actual news. Always interesting to hear the cash position obviously.
Yea a few new names around BLT. Their new CMO is ex ADI Instruments https://www.odt.co.nz/business/new-c...uate-back-city, I think their previous Asia business manager has left however.
Interesting arcticle? a couple of days old.
http://www.findata.co.nz/News/478104..._Ltd_BLTNZ.htm
Interesting promo. A sign of the very intelligent market segmentation thinking going on at Blis, which seems likely to pay off. A hint of where things might be going beyond K12 and M18 maybe?
There is no doubt that Blis is now embracing marketing with a gusto, and this is the right stage of the company to do that. Nevertheless, I also hope they remember that the marketing approach is not always appropriate and that the half year report must contain lucid factual statements on a myriad of subjects that shareholders need to hear in order to evaluate their many millions of dollars of investment in this company (and to meet the company's legal listing requirements.) Marketing is a powerful tool, but more powerful when you know when to do it and when to not do it - like in legal reports. The marketing manager can do marketing all day long, but the senior company officers have a range of duties beyond that.
I particularly feel this because the marketing approach is definitely very interesting indeed and looks very appropriate to me for future growth. But it must be in combination with very level-headed realism too, or there eventually grows the risk of the hype forming a feedback loop (such as Obama can't even see these days what a blah washout of a president he has been because he believes his own marketing). Probiotics are an absolute mine field of legal obligations, as are the financial and reporting obligations of a listed company, and a powerful marketing approach will pay all the better results if the company is ensuring it has someone on board with a natural flair for clear factual statements in order to stay on top of legal compliance on all fronts.
I am reminded of Gertude Jekyll and Edwin Lutyens. He built very solid and well done houses and garden walls, and she added fantastic overlays of romantic gardens. The combination of very competent and grounded reality with the best of human imagination and intelligence in appreciating the unseen possibilities made them extremely famous and extremely admired. They swept England before them in a way that neither of them would have achieved alone. They were the yin and the yang combination, the combination of hard nosed reality with great imagination and insight.
Blis has clearly picked up a talented marketing ability. We know it has truly excellent science. I hope it is remembering to always have present a trusted and hard nosed legal advisor of equal talent to ensure that reality is always solidly rearing it's head in the company offices.
Having said all that, it is nevertheless very fascinating to watch the marketing vision being developed. I suspected early on that the intention seemed to be to see the Blis name as a major asset in its own right in addition to individual products, and this looks increasingly likely to me. That is a powerful dream and will be interesting to watch - all the more so if we see ongoing evidence that the company knows when marketing's "one or two key messages" is a good thing, but also when to stop the marketing and cut to detailed reality. Yin and yang. Both should be evident to shareholders in the company reports.
Thanks for the posts, Emearg.
So right Simla ( and others ) thankyou for your insights .
SP seems to have slowed, but we wait with expectation !
Promisia (PIL) has been marketing Arthrem very heavily in NZ and have said that revenue well exceeds costs. Blis (BLT) has only recently started major marketing in NZ but it seems likely they will get a similar result to PIL in time.
In each case, the companies have international ambitions so are probably regarding NZ as a test bed.
Thanks, Winner. I would put up some photos as examples, but gardens revert after just a few years, let alone a century, so existing photos are just shadows of what may or may not have been at the time. Suffice to say that any Midsomer Murder episode would be delighted with such a setting.
That said, I'm vastly more confident in BLIS's product. The research is considerably more convincing. I've no doubt Promisia can make sales and possibly profits, but at this stage I'm steering clear until they have better evidence for the effectiveness of their product.
This could become a lengthy discussion that really belongs in a different thread, but I'm not casting doubt on the credibility of Promisia's published data. For me the content of those publications do not yet form a convincing body of evidence for their claims - to me they're somewhere in between "maybe" and "maybe not". But they're targeting the nutraceutical market so it doesn't really matter.
Well, the November report will likely be out in the next 2 or 3 weeks. What are we hoping to hear?
For myself, I am hoping for an increase in operational news. I thought the last report was big on high level results to date but low on what is being done for future growth on the ground, which makes it very difficult for shareholders to look to the future. Just my view obviously.
Are partners ramping up investment in marketing, or are they being cautious? What feedback are they giving anyway? What is the dog research about? What is the story with the skin product work? What is happening in lower SE Asia where things kicked off a while ago? What is presently happening in each broad market area? What plans are there to extend into other countries in Europe and are there barriers? Is the revenue growth repeatable or did it just represent restocking in the US and as Europe opened? Detailed information to help us assess how solid the future looks.
It was suggested there would be more news from China about now, but things move slowly in China. In any case, market growth in Asian countries has been slow in early uptake (as I'm told is normal for any product in Asia) so I am not expecting spectacular results even if sales actually begin in China.
Meanwhile the share price languishes. I just read an analysis that said analyst predictions of company profits are positive for a year out but dwindle when it gets close to actual results. Is that what's happening with Blis presently, or is this just part of the broad weakening of the NZX presently?
I don't think we need to worry too much about what's happening at BLT, Simla. They've already told us what they expect the result for the full year to be so I think we can be confident we're not dealing with just a one-off revenue gain.
The new-ish MD is a marketing man focused primarily on increasing revenue from finished goods as he has identified that's where the margin opportunities lie. I am sure he will be addressing the sales opportunities in as many markets as he reasonably can within the confines of the company's available resources. It will be interesting to learn how much they are ramping up their marketing spend and it wont bother me at all if they plan to go higher.
While we can hope to get some detail on what's happened over the past six months, there are competitors in the market too, so it's likely they wont want to show their hand too much on their future strategies. China is clearly taking time to develop and it would be great if the trials were at or near the end. That market could be transformational once approvals are received and sales kick-off. Just need to make sure they are on board with the right distributor!
The SP is all over the place as are many others in the current uncertain market environment but I'm extremely optimistic for the future of BLT and am not concerned at all about recent fluctuations. In 2-3 year's time we could be looking at an SP that's easily double what it is today.
I'm hanging on for the ride - it's going to be fun and even more profitable than it has been to date.
That's what I had thought was the explanation. But then the market analyst's report came out recently with a ton more detail, and the sky did not fall. I think it is about mindset. I am glad the management see a happy future, but I want to see that myself as an investor and have a legal right to that sort of knowledge. After all, no general would be happy with the simple news "we seem to be winning" but would insist on detail battle by battle so he could judge how well things were going one battle at a time. He would not want to rely on the judgement of one person, but would want detail to form his own opinion. That's called having skin in the game, which shareholders very much do have.
I should have included in my earlier list: how is the Blis-as-toothpaste-substitute product going down in Japan? An intriguing experiment. It is exactly I how I use it myself, but how are the customers reacting? How are the business partners reacting?
Look, I am quite sure that the BLT management are doing a good job. But that is quite different from shareholders being able to judge it for themselves with actual detail.
Consider this Wall Street Journal article on Fonterra. http://www.wsj.com/articles/can-supe...urs-1477994197
"Over the next decade the co-op lost sight of that goal as it bet heavily on rising demand from China for a single commodity, milk powder, instead of diversifying into higher-value dairy products such as dietary supplements and medical foods." Well, I am sure that management there were doing their best. But my memories of those years are also of endless announcements from them that everything was going really well. Hey, maybe my memory is wrong.
But, nevertheless, "The dairy industry's value to the economy has nearly halved since milk prices boomed in the 2013/14 season, new DairyNZ figures reveal." says http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/countr...-year-revealed
BLT does indeed seem to be in a pretty good place. But the habit of telling shareholders the good news all the time can have real consequences over time. I really don't want BLT to develop that habit. Give us detail that we can judge for ourselves please.
To state what should be obvious, but in case nobody realises, the NZX requires continuous disclosure of material information. This guidance note describes material information as "a reasonable person would expect, if it were generally available to the market, to have a material effect on the price of the issuer’s quoted securities" and then "A price movement of 10% or more in a quoted security will generally be treated by NZXR as evidence that information has had a material effect on the price of those quoted securities." https://nzx.com/files/static/cms-doc...2014%20(1).pdf
Obviously there is also the exclusion of "a reasonable person would not expect the information to be disclosed" (and some sub clauses). But you know, I am a very reasonable person! And yet I have high expectations.
The NZX has these rules for the simple reason that shareholders very much have skin in the game. They are entitled to know enough to keep an eye on what is developing. And that's the reason I want to know more too. Answers to any of my questions in the last few posts would very likely affect the share price by at least 10% I would have thought, by way of example.
Look, I never ask much of this company. I trust them, year after year. But disclosure is very definitely in my list of unchangeable expectations.
Having said all that, the number one thing we want to hear, of course, IS good news :)
Share price currently down about 25% in the 10 weeks since the independent report came out, obviously in response to broad world unease at things generally. Since Blis is sitting in what appears to be a good position, that suggests that that report has not yet brought in any significant fund interest or any other general interest. It may be that my desire for substantive detailed market news is not unusual, and that the company would be responding to the market more generally by pursuing that path on a regular basis. I only want it as an investor, not out of any sense of criticism - I am very comfortable with where the company currently is. But real investing requires a capacity to judge the future outlook for oneself from the facts, not just from broad statements. Or, to put it another way, you can't just tell investors that things are good, you have to convince them of it. The funny thing is that the company used to give us heaps of detail but seldom any statement of how happy the company was, but now it is too much in the opposite direction (just my opinion obviously).
In any event, it is once again disappointing to see the market once again not really understanding the Blis value, and especially in contrast to some other companies not yet making a profit with good share prices.
Tough day in the markets all round today. Nice timing - I bought back into Blis yesterday! Oh well, I didn't buy it for a one day shift and more excited about the next 12 - 24 months for this share.
Confirmation that at least one major NZ investor likes solid substance in reports. Brian Gaynor this morning in the herald commented on 5 very successful NZ companies. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/ne...ectid=11742447
"One of the key features of these five companies is that they do not have a heavy reliance on public relations releases" The fact that he singled that out for comment suggests it rates highly in his selection criteria, I thought.
Also, "The secret of [their] success has been a clear and realistic long-term growth strategy that has been effectively implemented by its senior management team with strong board oversight." If an annual report convinces me of that, so I can see it can happen for myself, then I am happy.
Every report is a new adventure. I look forward to seeing the next one. My attitude to any report, any company, is always the same : more information please!
That backs up what I was told last week. I bought some Blis at the Pharmacy near the Bee Hive and asked the pharmacist how Blis was selling. She shared that it was one of their top sellers and very popular with government and courts staff. She also added that Blis had taken a lot of time to train the staff about the product and it was paying off now with a steady increase in sales.
BLT followers just need to look at the PIL SP performance over the last 12 months to see what can happen to a small cap company when its products are 'discovered' by the market.
(Disc holding both)
Interesting piece from the Beeb, no mention of Blis though
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-37961366
http://www.boots.ie/en/Pharmacy-Heal...Treat-Service/
.........are we supplying to the UK yet? This could be a worrying development (not for Blis tho) ie surely these pharmacists will automatically reach for the ABs (no not All Blacks) as they are right there on the shelf PLUS there's profits in them drugs!! On the other hand......maybe greater awareness to our natural alternative probiotic treatment aka BLIS will also come to the fore?? I hope our marketing team are aware of this new development in the UK and get straight onto this opportunity.........BIG MARKET PUSH PLEASE DIRECTORS.!! The world MUST be detoured away from Antibiotic over-use in general....or we are all gonners. I hear also some news filtering through that scientists have discovered probiotic bacteria in yoghurt that may halt alzheimers disease.........anyone else catch that???
.......for those interested.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/ar...leviate-sympto
Yes, all the base level stuff is there to provide a solid future for Blis. The company can capture that with a solid and respectable report. Chapter and verse on what they are doing now, chapter and verse on what they hope to do over the next few years.
With the Trump effect, and now the earthquake, there is all the more reason to come out looking like a well oiled "boring" safe company, by providing solid chapter and verse details. Of course it depends on whether the company cares about the share price, which they don't have to unless they want fresh capital. But consider that PEB is at 55 cents, with last full year loss of $15m, XRO at $17.57, with last half year loss of $43m ... and BLT at just 4.3 cents, with a projected profit for year of about $1m. Personally I think the company could do with more market credibility than that, and the annual reports are where you get it.
However, the company gets to choose what is appropriate and I look forward to seeing our next report.
........totally agree SIMLA re:Share Price. Here we are in profit PLUS only further growth ahead of us PLUS a "World First" "World Unique" set of products in Bio Technology BUT with a Share Price lingering in the low 4c to give an under-valued Market Cap which is a quarter to a fifth that of Pacific Edge (for example) ........yet both companies working in the same field of health biotech etc, both hailing from Dunedin NZ and YET Pacific Edge (which has huge competition unlike BLIS) is a loss maker without the world prospects that BLIS has (in my opinion)
Maybe it's time for the directors to do a national roadshow to get as many Financial Advisors on board as possible........Im sure new investors will be handsomely rewarded over the medium term. In fact my call on the SP potential is 20:20:20 (20c by this time 2020) ?? ( BUT actually based just on the Pacific Edge price it should be 20c now....IMHO) Wake up Mr. Market.