Yeah mate just a guess. All my regular mates and contacts think I'm a conservative old bugger thinking specific and general bad debt provisioning is going up rapidly...I guess some of us have longer memories than others when it comes to reckless lending policies of the finance companies pre GFC. Really it wasn't that long ago that all this no deposit lending got finance companies in big trouble, doesn't anyone at HNZ have a memory of these things for goodness sake ! No, lets lend to young people with a no wallet, no worries campaign targeting young people with no money, that's a good idea right, just like Harry and Lloyd from the memorable movie Dumb and Dumber, they're good for it right ?...(FFS shakes head and wonders what the marketing team were smoking at the time they had that idea)
You mark my words, EPS profit growth in 2016 will be very close to zero, (maybe even negative if Dairy stays really low or goes even lower and some of those sharemilkers with their herds as only security go under :eek2:), by the time the auditors force them to get real with their provisioning in their 2016 full year accounts. You read it from me first. Quadrant are good at seeing the over the horizon stuff aren't they mate !
Its become a dividend yield stock in my opinion. Still 8% as an shareholder has its virtues when you only get 4% as a depositor, thank God there's a silver lining in this somewhere :)
I'll have some hard questions for the board at the next ASM.