Originally Posted by
Maverick
Hi Foodie, good to see you digging up old posts, obviously you are doing some thinking. Funny you ask for a revised profit , I was doing it just yesterday.
Firstly my overall NZ assumptions (which affect OCA assumptions) are as follows;
-Residential property prices won't fall much and will recover soon enough.
- Retirement villages will not be wiped out or be seen as any less desirable.
-NZ people will go straight back to their old ways, except international travel, when released.
-NZ economy will get through this just fine , except of course international tourism or any business already struggling pre-virus.
So I'm pretty positive about the whole thing, much more than what I`m reading of most others points of view. I`ve been through enough crisis`s and serious broadsides to know everything washes into history and whats always emerges is a better, improved model. Respecting that some will be really suffering, overall I actually see NZ doing “fine and dandy” in a year or two, especially property and equities.( imagine equities with property :t_up:)
My OCA spreadsheet changes are as follows:
-Development will be delayed by only 1 month. I'm expecting construction will recommence at full speed on Thursday.
-Care suites are operating and selling/reselling at normal levels through the lock-down.
-new sales and resales of apartments and villas are down in volume, not prices, for the HY by 25%.
-staffing costs will be up slightly but not much.
Sooooo...what's the magic number?….I was projecting about 60m underlying but am now expecting 55m (9 cps) . That “feels “ too high to me but that's what the spreadsheets pop out.
So at worst I am expecting around last years income of 50m but hoping for 55m and the divi will be maintained.
FWIW, I know MET is very popular here right now , and I've recently run a ruler over it, and do see it at the same excellent buying value as OCA at current share prices. However I still strongly prefer OCA over the LONGER TERM due to its stronger growth pipeline and I really love the care suite model of OCA.