I noticed Z's prices are on par with BP now. They were always a lot cheaper but maybe lower prices does not always increase market share.
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I noticed Z's prices are on par with BP now. They were always a lot cheaper but maybe lower prices does not always increase market share.
No interest in ZEL?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...421/339015.pdf
Petrol volume on par with PCP
Diesel up 4% PCP
Jet Fuel down 60% PCP
Even selling more sausage rolls and chocolate bars with convenience store sales increasing 5.9% on a like for like basis.
Once the planes come back we should be rocking.
So only a year or more to wait then
Yeah and I'm not sure I'm keen to wait around that long.
My average buy in is $2.77 so sitting on a small double digit gain. Bought after the COVID slump.
I have zero passion for ZEL so have done zero research- (funny since 'DYOR' seems to be the topic of today).
Purchased purely on 'beaten up COVID affected stock that will rebound because vehicles will continue to need fuel', in the medium term future.
Might just let Mr Market digest this news over the next few weeks and set a price for me. Take the gains and remove from my watch list :mellow:
"Purchased purely on 'beaten up COVID affected stock that will rebound because vehicles will continue to need fuel', in the medium term future"
EV's are not going to require fuel, I cant see this rising anytime soon, I sold out at $2.90 last year. The growth of EV's and the lack of airline movements will keep the SP down around its current levels. Yes, EV's may take a bit of time to grow in the NZ market but grow it will and as I drive around in my 4 litre gas guzzler, I seem to see more and more. I'm now a convert and fancy the new FORD Mustang Mach-E.
I am all for EV's but reading things like this makes me think the roll out could be slower than the average person thinks..
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...pply-of-cobalt
Definitely varies by country.. and Z is only in NZ but here is a quote from an article today
The company also noted governments around the world were putting quotas in place around EV take-up rates across the next three decades, led by China which is targeting EV penetrations rates of around 40 per cent by 2030, just nine years away.
Lots of people are assuming that there will be widespread adoption of EVs in the short term. It's easier said than done. Aside from production capacity constraints and cost, there are a myriad of issues which will take a long time to resolve.
eg. using the heater in an electric vehicle during cold weather can reduce EV range by over 40 percent
https://medium.com/@angelica.schreye...s-1201efd8b99f
I've noticed that car chargers are usually taken as more EVs hit the road, so if you need a charge outside (considering the average range of a lLeaf is only 200km) and you can't find a charger it's akin to looking for a toilet when you're busting. Of course, more chargers will be built over time, but installers have to balance demand with over-investment in infrastructure, so no one's going to build thousands of charging stations overnight.
This is why I think Z will quietly continue generating good returns over the next decade.
Bit of a sunset industry eh. Will be interesting to see how Z and it's peers pivot to meet the requirements of the changing landscape.
Maybe a mixture of a one stop shop for fast car charging, cafe, mini supermarket, car wash etc.
Going to have to keep evolving.
I would have thought would be getting more carved up on fuel volumes by self-service competitors like Waitomo, NPD etc and aggressive pricing/lower cost must be squeezing retail fuel margins?? In Dunno's there are at least 8 of these stations that have appeared in recent years.....
On the plus side, many are sitting on prime real estate/sites, albeit expect they lease.
would it be safe to assume that most middle class families have two cars? ......so I see it more as one car as the local runabout (charged overnight at home for cheap) i.e. the Leaf or whatever it is, & the other a larger ICE for the 2-3 long-distance drives they do when going on holiday (until more infrastructure is rolled out / as technology & range improves, at which point the 2nd car is upgraded). Most of the population don't drive 200km every day - maybe 60-70km? If every family upgrade one car to an EV in the next few years, EV growth is going to explode, regardless of the number of car chargers. Not to mention the pressure from Gen Z teenagers on parents to do something about climate change... there were some big protests about this not long ago don't forget.
Very interesting on the EV temperature issues. In addition to the detrimental effects on the battery itself, the increase in heating/AC (or in fact any other electrical system) is going to add on to those range issues. Compared to an ICE vehicle which can continually charge itself as it is operated, extra electronics like display screens, navigation, sensors, all add to the battery drain.
Disappointing that the various manufacturers are also not using interchangeable cells or universal charging interfaces. Also as an aside, in NZ RUCs are scheduled to be applied to light passenger vehicles from December this year.
Given age of NZ vehicle fleet, range and cost of EVs, EV limitations, NZ electrical grid and charger infrastructure, I don't see EV's replacing ICE en masse for a significant period of time.
From a purely economic perspective, an EV didn't make sense for us, and won't until the capital cost drops significantly. There are cars available that suit our day to day requirements that consume as little as 2.5-3L/100km, so the number of years it would take to recoup investment doesn't make sense.
As I've said over in the EV thread, if the government feel the need to drive adoption they need to stop mucking around with RUC exemptions and do something that actually drives adoption which is reduce the capital cost or encourage more favourable financing options. EV quotas will simply result in older cars being kept for longer periods of time. In the mean time, it would be useful to at least know that Z has a long term strategy for this emerging market.
Disc: Not a holder.
Looking at the chart this is one very sick dog. Divi is suspended AFAIK too?
Reason for the recent pronounced weakness? https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...go-zero-carbon
Been rather grim SP movements lately.........
Be interesting to see details how NZ will pay for these wonderful zero-carbon changes or its bye Jacinda
There are many more encouraging and rewarding companies to invest in, albeit the market overall is value_stretched, one can't understand why anyone would invest or hold a long term capital destruction, surely it's not just for dividends, when the capital lost massively exceeds the dividends earned?
Thirty plus stocks with only 3 now showing red having held Zel for two years (not trading) Not holding for dividend but any dividend will move the needle as would any progress towards electrifying their stations assuming they wish to keep up with play. $3.90 break-even point so see no reason to suddenly sell taking a hefty loss. My other holdings have been (much) kinder............
the announcement by z saying they got a dispute notice from NZR seemed to be the turning point in the recovery price wise + a number of govt announcements. changed the recovery narrative
Kingfish sold out quite a while back, unimpressed with management. I think management have totally dropped the ball. Mike Bennetts comes out with trite statements often beginning with "We welcome" this change or We welcome that change but what they have totally missed the opportunity with is welcoming and leading the charge with embracing adding EV charging facilities at all their service stations. If they had rolled out just one or two charging points at each of their service stations they would have dramatically lifted their store sales as consumers munched their way through tens of millions of dollars of (very high margin) snack food each year while waiting for their EV's to charge up.
They have the toilets, they have the coffee, they have the snack food, all that is missing was the foresight by management to embrace and welcome the future trend to EV's. What Mike Bennetts should have done is welcomed the change and embraced it putting in EV charging points in ALL their service stations. Investing $200K is really nothing more than a token effort https://www.driven.co.nz/news/z-shif...y-ev-chargers/
I unfortunately was a holder of Z , last year I gave up and took a loss. Mike's conversations revolve around the topics of: he didn't want to be in the petrol industry, his two daughters, pies and coffee. It's never any substance.
I do wonder how much revenue they would make from EV charging though? Do you mean like a cafe and charging stations?
I think supermarkets, malls and fast food outlets will adopt the charging station in the future making it quite hard for a converted z stations to generate a profit. This may be a while away though, EV's need to come down in price for average joe to adopt.
that and the fact that we have an unreliable electrical grid. At least you know you can get around with fuel. There are many hurdles to jump before we need to worry about the size of the EV market. Never mind all of this signalling of virtue we get from the twats in Wellington.
The question is, at what price does this stock become a buy??
Now looks better than ever at current prices. The vaccine is doing its job therefore jet fuel sales will probably resume soonish
Disc, bought extra on Friday
Well before then we will see petrol and diesel sales starting to fall off due to EV's. In the meantime the minnows with their cheap unmanned stations will keep steading eroding Z's market share, year after year after year. Its just too hard to swim against an outgoing tide.
Way I see it only way forward is a complete revamp of business model. Similar to fuel stops in Asia, Z had the potential to leverage longish EV 'refueling' times to services such as children's playgrounds, entertainment, decent resturants, and maybe shopping. Imagine... You plug in your car and order your food. Food service timing is linked to charging times on your vehicle etc.
Risk is that this becomes the domain of malls etc and that petrol stations as we know them become obsolete.
I couldn't agree more re this company and I must admit I'm still holding hoping for a break even.
Their current add with a geriatric biker promoting their easy payment system leaves a lot to be desired. Motor bikes don't take great volumes and if it's pay as you go there's no add on whatsoever.
Z would be far better off showing a forecourt of boy racers, motorhomes and trucks with a bit of buzz rather than the current version.
COME ON Z..... LEAD THE WAY ON VOLUME AND ADD ON... YOUR SHAREHOLDERS WILL BENEFIT!
It's an interesting concept. IME one issue we had when investigating installation of a EV charger at a commercial property we own that contains a hospitality business, was that other sites similar to what we planned had found customers tended to buy a low-priced item and sit there talking for 1hr or more, thereby negating the churn required for the hospitality business to make decent profits. Add into the cost upgrading the road-side transformer (which would cost $250K for a 400KVa unit and we were required to pay 90% of that) and it became a non-starter for us.
Interesting observation today 1 punter bought 8,576,477 Zel shares equaling $24 million and maybe not finished. They have put their money where their mouth is. Question for the smarties why would they do that. Just chum change or pin money or something else didn't even ask for a discount ?