Its only improved on the 4 cent divi. Unless TRA come up with some positive news I expect it to fall back again ex div.
TA looking bullish. Most importantly has started an uptrend with a higher low and higher high. 233 should now act as a support line. 240 the next point to watch.
I am positioned to take advantage of what I think will be tailwinds for high yielding companies, especially ones that have been beaten down. Remember that TRA is essentially a finance company. I see this going the same way as HGH over the last month or two.
A financial update won't be far off.
Not convinced to add to my small position yet. Still hasn't broken up through the 100 day moving average which I use as my benchmark TA reference point.
Still looks a little bit like an "abandoned baby" lol
For sure - I think the technical terms are "endowment effect" and "confirmation bias" ... but latter might apply for non holders as well ;)
From a personal perspective - I did hold them for some time and lost a lot of money with them. From my experience - as soon as I buy back into a stock which lost me money in the past they typically start losing me money again ... i.e. it is probably better for everybody if I just stay out and confine myself to holding companies which used to make me money in the past ;) - and hey, there are some;
That will be Beagle....over his magic 100
Percy ... For a buy and hold long term investor you sure look at the depth a lot
Think like a business owner ...forget about the minute by minute gyrations of the stock market
Bored today are we.
No not bored.
Just having fun making sure our TA Chartists are wide awake.
LOL Beagles 100 day ma has been broken.[made my day] And no I did not buy any today.!!
What will interest me is Turners outlook when they announce their result late May.
Perhaps their trading update in a few weeks will be of interest.
That said I expect next year Turners will start delivering ,as all their ducks are lining up very nicely..
1884 avaliable at $2.38.
Haven't closed for business yet. A close above the 100 day MA and holding there for three working days would be a good TA sign.
Well looks as though I will miss the close tonight.
However, I expect the HGH presentation our "Jeff" is putting on will, as always, be full of little gems.
Nice little run on HGH lately. Look forward to your report tomorrow.
You may get it tonight.5.15pm for 5.30 start should mean I am home to take the daughter's dog home at 7.30pmish.So I should be online again at approx 8pm.
Funny first time I can remember I have no questions for Jeff, other than asking how they are progressing with my suggestion they make a take over for TRA.Would nab Oxford Finance and TRA's MTF holding.! At today's price it must be a steel.?..lol.
Lock in the divi before the 23rd ..
I've doubled my holding , selling a few OCA, as that was a bit top heavy anyway and need to spread. Cant go wrong with 7.35% and a very low SP......or can you !!! so now 12% of portfolio.
see how she goes..
ASB has Morningstar pdf as SP of 3.88 on 5th April 2019 in their header ????
is that a miss-print ?
Looking at buy side orders it looks like there's at least two large accumulators.
Percy keeps reminding us about all the growth in the years ahead, just in case we temporarily forget for one day lol... and now that TA is supportive with a clear break above the 100 day MA I "hounded" up a few more. What could possibly go wrong lol
HGH up from $1.31 in mid Feb to $1.68 now + 3.5 cps fully imputed dividend.
Total shareholder return for those canny investors who bought at $1.31 = 30.92%, call it 31% since we're among friends :)
TRA up from $2.14 to $2.41 in the same period with no dividends = 12.6%.
Cool how banks and finance companies have gone up at the same time eh....even some of the Australian banks with their scurrilous business practices have staged a bit of a recovery lately.
Not as good as you BP .....I’m only ‘smug’ because I didn’t crystallise my losses at that time :(:(:t_up::D:eek2::t_down::p
Hopefully it’ll get back to 260 odd ....might be in love with Turners by then :t_up::t_up::t_up::t_up::t_up:
No idea what those smilie things mean but using them might be the secret to success punting
It is not easy "keeping the faith" when the market says you are wrong.
I have had to do it twice with HGH and one "big long time" with TRA.
Six months ago TRA,HGH and my other big holding, were either doing down the drain, or just going sideways.I could not believe I had all three wrong,after spending so much time attending all three's ,presentations ,attending/watching their agms,and keeping in contact with them.I reread all their results, and presentations and could not find anything to make me think my research was flawed.
Added to this "fake news" on sharetrader was not helpful,particularly from posters who should have known better.
But here we are today "well positioned."
I'm well under water with this one but have held on throughout the downward spiral and hoping it will return to previous highs and above. At least they have been paying regular dividends throughout.
The SELL side of TRA (hopefully) looking like their car lots after the End-of-Year sales. Six sellers of 40,000 shares vs 22 buyers for 135,000 shares.
Still no news but no news is good news
Npbt of $33m / $34m to be reported next month ...that’s nearly 10% up on last year
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/resea...-research-day/
Value stocks, (brown line on chart) look very cheap to me especially considering interest rates are at lifetime lows.
TRA must be a value stock, surely and therefore must be cheap, what could possibly go wrong lol
Had a good conversation with one of Turners branches recently. Very impressed with their upbeat positive sharing. And if what they said is indeed correct, that they will need to move to bigger premises soon ,well it reminds me of that great Doors song " Ive been down so long it looks like up to me". Heres hoping.
Last day before a long weekend (or for many a whole week off) and several profit downgrades on the NZX already
Just as well Turners keep on clipping the ticket so no profit downgrade for them on this fateful day for some
Maybe a profit upgrade ...that would be good
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333543
Kind of soft upgrade.
• Guidance: FY19 NPBT guidance updated to be above $32m (excluding one off non-cash adjustment relating to Buy Right Cars rebranding), consistent with current guidance.
• 4th Quarter Trading Update: Improvements in trading performance, with positive benefits from ongoing optimisation of retail network; relocation of the Whangarei site; and two new sites performing above expectations. North Shore branch relocation remains on schedule.
• Group Strategy Review: Board and senior management have been undertaking a full and comprehensive review of the group strategy with a focus on simplicity, de-risking the business and focusing on our core capability and brand strength in Automotive Retail. The outcome of the review will be communicated to the market by the end of June.
• Brand Rationalisation for Auto Retail: An early outcome of the strategy work is that Turners will focus on a single brand direction within the Auto Retail division. Buy Right Cars branches will rebrand to Turners to leverage the high levels of awareness and trust in the Turners brand. This will result in a $4.5m one-off, non-cash write-off for the Buy Right Cars brand and signage value.
• Q3 Dividend: 4.0 cents per share, with minimum FY19 dividend of 17 cents per share expected.
Npbt was always going to be $33m/$34m but maybe only $33m which is still profit growth
F20 going to be a monster of a year
Pity about the $5m rebranding costs but if nothing else that will keep snoops busy normalising profit
A lot of buzz words in the announcement should give the market the warm fuzzies
Share price could be 3 bucks soon .,well done Todd Turner, he’s a good guy
Move to a single brand, "Turners" makes good common sense. Update removes some uncertainty which is good and it looks like Percy might get his wish about the buy-back continuing at some stage in the future. Harbour reckon value stocks are cheap and the directors think Turners shares are cheap, maybe they are ?
Pleasing to see that BuyRight Cars will be rebranded Turners.
Turners brand is trusted strong well known brand.
Cost of the rebranding is more than I would have expected.
Hopefully the buy back will be extended.
Also pleased with the confirmation of next year's [mimimum] 17 cents divie.
Seems to me they have grossly over valued the Buy Right Brand. 4.5m is a hell of a lot for a brand that isnt trusted or the market is unaware of it.
The Buy Right Cars purchase for me was good in some cases but the one that didnt sit well with me was the service that they delivered. I have been there a few times and they weren't very good in my opinion, hence I never went there again. I think now with the rebrand it might get those put of BRC visiting the sites again. BRC do have good sites though. I am pleased with the guidance and very happy with previous timing of purchase:)
Well, one step at a time with quick recovery of 4c divvy.
Agreed.
However the BuyRight cars acquisition did give them the penetration of the Auckland market they lacked.
Whether in hindsight they would have achieved the same penetration with organic growth, is hard to know.Would have taken years.
However they have penetration in the Auckland market and are now growing it organically.Northshore new site at Archers Road shoud be something, and then another new branch at Westgate openning in the not too distant future.
Still awaiting news about possible relocation of ChCh branch..
Well done Percy. Spot on as usual. :)
Well looks like that update will solidify and confirm the uptrend that has begun. Onward and upwards.
Was that 'bad news' a month or so a ploy to get the share price down to stupid levels so they could buy really cheap shares in the buyback
Sneaky as
All those minimum wage workers in Auckland should be getting their large pay rises by now. Must be time for a new car on favorable finance terms.
I'm completely unimpressed, with the Wellington car yard on the basin reserve. The site is scruffy and half of it is still in gravel.
The cars are imports and ex lease. Turners makes no effort at all to refurbish the ex lease cars (apart from vacuuming) they are covered in stone chips, scuffs and pin dents. Walk over the road to Honda or Toyota and get a signature class (as new) Toyota for only a liitle bit more. Turners also imports some really odd cars, problematic Europeans and boy racer WRXs. (3 in Wgtn) I see they still have repos in the auctions so I hope they are not from in house finance deals. They had a $120,000 Mercedes coupe repo this week in Wellington
Try SKT for yield. Hold your nose and look under the covers. SKT is not going broke and has a number of Buy recommendations based on value from outfits like MorningStar and FatProphets. SP has declined muchly but there is good value for every animal. SKT still has valuable media rights and good customer base. Hope springs eternal and new CEO might make a difference.
That bell-end pattern thingy I was going on about now just looking like a nice uptrend on rising volume.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/i...OUiZvXbr0FLbVQ
There are quite a number of better yielding companies than Turners but I think its quite clear SKT earnings are in for ongoing decline which must affect their ability to pay dividends eventually https://www.marketscreener.com/SKY-N...57/financials/
I think the market update gave us some comfort this week and its good to know that management are working hard on a comprehensive review.
The move to one brand is definitely a good one and the TV advertisements with Ollie are very good and should be continued.
I am hoping for a gradual recovery in the share price to the $2.60 - $2.70 over the next year and I think that's realistically achievable.
The sale of lease vehicles is a very steady earner for Turners,who sell on behalf of the lease companies.
The lease companies dictate the terms,and it is their choice that they are sold,basically as leased.
ex lease cars are often a good buy as part of the lease aggreement is the vehicle must be regularly serviced by an approved agent.I remember a rep had to get the lease company's approval to buy a replacement tyre.
Yes Turners sell a lot of imports,as do most used vehicle sales companies.
I can not comment on the Wellington site,other than it looked good in the photos and is trading above expectations. I also seem to recall it is more of a temporary site,and when it is redevoped, Turners will move their container buildings,and vehicles to another site.
You and snoops better come up with a convincing ‘normalised’ story
They npbt to be above $32m for F19 ....let’s be kind and say $32.5m (the year has ended and they only fine tuning the numbers and if it was going to be $33m they would have said so eh
Well, that implies second half profit will be 7%/8% LESS than last year (before the huge one off costs)
Things obviously continue to be a bit of soft / challenging side
I have often stated there are two areas of concern to me.
1] Buy Right Cars.
2] The length of tail for the MTF bad non-recouse loans,.
Rebrading BuyRight Cars to Turners will fix that problem.
We do know Turners tightened their lending criteria for MTF and other non-recourse loans in April 2018,so that tail should be getting shorter.
So I think the result will be messy with one off rights offs, and one off property gains.
Therefore the outlook statement will be all important.
1. Rebranding is a good idea but it does not fix old problem stock.
2. How long is the tail with those problem non recourse loans ?. I have never once seen any finance company admit to a problem and then the problem being less than first estimated, its is always much worse than first thought, Always !...this image probably best sums things up https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...0&vt=0&eim=1,6
Both these things will "Dog" sorry couldn't resist, the company well into FY20.
I suspect the comprehensive review they're undertaking at present is focusing among other things, the complexities of the above two matters.
No euphoria from this dog, just realism.
There is an old saying in business;
"We appear to have a problem?."
Once you have said that and know what the problem is ,you are a long way to fixing that problem.
This is the case with Turners.
MFT did it with both Australia and Europe.EBO did it with Australia.
’Houston, we have a problem’ was in the film but Jim actually said ‘Houston, we had a problem’
Maybe Turners had a problem and it’s all fixed just like Apollo 13 getting back home safely was and Todd Turner is a hero
Agree with what you say about problems Percy but Turners seem to have a never ending set of problems ..wonder what the next one they tell us is.
I have never known a business that does not have growing pains.Seems mature businesses going backwards have fewer problems.!
Like MFT the more you take on the more can and does go wrong.However the big picture remains the same.
Dorcester took over Turners.Turners retail exposure in Auckland was weak,as was their finance exposure in the South Island.Fixed by acquistions which saved years of organic growth.
MTF blocking stake acquired,and created more opportunities [not all good] for Turners.
Autosure lacked scale.
Scaling up all these businesses has come at a cost.Big set backs too.
However retail sales has bulk,and is growing with new sites and relocated sites working well.More coming on tap.
Finance now strong through out NZ and growing with not only Turners but also with more originators.
Insurance,as above.
Property .Growth has certainly given Turners great opportunities,which are looking very profitable.
It’s good if you can turn a problem into something that gives you a competitive advantage ...i’m sure that’s how Todd thinks ...mind you he and others didn’t give that impression when answering question about their problems at the agm.
I'd like to think after the passage of quite some time since the acquisition of Buy Wrong ? cars that the significant majority of issues of slow and problematic vehicles will be dealt with by the end of FY20 and likewise for the non recourse loans but to your latter point I agree that this is a very tough industry choc-a- bloc full of challenges. Its not without opportunity either but until they start to put eps growth runs on the board in a consistent way I can relate to the market's scepticism so will stick to a low portfolio allocation.
The foundations for a really great business have been laid.
The next couple of years should see Turners delivering on their vertical intergrated business model strategy.
Not there yet,but getting closer [by the day].
I am not expecting to be able to judge much on the day the annual results are released. As per last year, we will have to wait until the full annual report is published with all of those messy one offs fully explained to truly understand how the year has panned out. It does make me a bit nervous though: That there is enough wriggle room to more or less make the headline result figure exactly what Turners have previously signalled.
With the demise of 'Buy Right cars', as a brand, I thought it was worth looking back at what was said at last years roadshow, where the outlook for 'Buy Right Cars' was a lot more positive, despite the signalled stock problems.
Turners Buy Right Cars Satisfaction 87% 88% Likelihood to Repurchase 71% 77% Stock Turn 35-45 days 60-90 days
Turners is the better known brand, for sure. Yet the likelihood of repeat business is less. So does this mean we will see the not so satisfied ex 'Buy Right' customers will now be 'more certain' knowing exactly what yard they wish to avoid in the future? Brand recognition I assume works both ways! The 'Buy Right' business was structured around spending more time (4 hours) with customers, as opposed to the Turners 'No Frills' (1-2 hours) approach. IIRC, this partly explains the higher satisfaction and likelihood to repurchase ratings. I wonder if this will change, or whether Turners will roll out some kind of 'Turners Premium' branding for the smaller 'Buy Right' sites in the future? Perhaps it does mean that kiwi car buyers are impulsive and cheap?
It was masterful for Todd to rebrand himself at the same time: 'Todd Turner' sounds much less desperate than 'Todd Hunter' for sure. (thanks to Winner for pointing out this little known fact). The Aaron Saunders rebranding around losing the beard was less successful. Calling himself 'Aaron Turner' would have been the way to go, and would have made for a real family atmosphere at the top.
SNOOPY TURNER (Shareholder)
Isn’t that how things usually work in big business ....dress things up to make it all look good ....while dismissing the good stuff.
Your normalisation exercise is going to be one huge task but as long as you get eps growth of 20% it’ll be good
So many ‘abnormals’ / ‘one offs’ every year they’re becoming the norm but if you reckon worth it go for it.
Snoopy I think you will make a better informed judgement why Turners are rebranding BuyRight Cars to Turners, should you reread page 16 of their Forsyth Barr Investor Day presentation,noting "Turners is seen as the most trustworthy used car dealer in NZ".
Interesting noting on page 11, Operating profit FY 2018 Finance [29%] combined with Insurance [15%] totalled 44%,which was slightly higher than Automotive Retail of 41%.
I expect we will see further growth in both Finance and Insurance.
The great unknown will be property which will added further to Insurance's contributuion.
Get used to "one offs","abmormals' etc, for the next few years as Turners develop and relocate sites.
One brand Turners for vehicle retail, and one brand Oxford Finance for finance makes good sense.
That 'trusted dealer comparison' is not really an 'apples with apples' comparison though, is it? "2 Cheap Cars" and "Enterprise Motor Group" are the only others with any kind of national footprint. ANZA (Palmerston North) and 'Value Car Warehouse' (Christchurch) are one site dealers. So ask someone in Auckland what they think of those two and they are hardly going to trust a company they have never heard of. Put in the context of 'Buy Right Cars' being Auckland only -plus one site in Hamilton- and that 4% rating is actually pretty good. If Auckland has 1/3 of NZ's population, maybe equivalent to 12% on a national per population comparison basis.
I see the 'intangible asset brand value' for 'Buy Right Cars' is listed in the FY2018 annual report as $4.3m.
The 18th April trading update where the brand rationalization plan is disclosed says:
"This will result in a $4.5m one-off, non-cash write-off for the Buy Right Cars brand and signage value."
So it looks like all the goodwill associated with the 'Buy Right Cars' purchase ($10.860m) is still intact. No nasty surprise here is good news for the TRA balance sheet.
Remember Percy that as of EOFY2018 (p50 AR2018) the 'Automotive Segment' was still booking $5.724m of 'finance operating profit' (the old Turners Auctions Finance division I believe) . That Automotive division finance profit is being moved into Oxford Finance over FY2019. That in turn means the part of the Automotive division that is taking the gross profit on the car sales themselves is not as profitable as the segmented results - as published on cursory inspection - would indicate.Quote:
Interesting noting on page 11, Operating profit FY 2018 Finance [29%] combined with Insurance [15%] totalled 44%,which was slightly higher than Automotive Retail of 41%.
SNOOPY
It is very much apples for apples.
Directors/management know "we appear to have a problem".
And have taken the right course of action to fix the problem.
Finance and insurance are what I will be looking at to be honest, the automotive retail is just too flaky in the coming couple years to make me confident in its growth. If finance and insurance number look dismal then il be out with a substantial capital loss as I was buying from mid 3.50s to 2.14 so I am quite deep in it.