We heading to $3.60 ya reckon?
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I guess it will find support - there is a lot esp at 3.50 - Theoretically its still bullish above 3.45 - I'm just wary of diagonals on a 5th wave.
and Beagle is always right (virtually) (not sarcastic in case its taken that way)
JTH awesome analysis for the longer time frame too!
Briscoes this week proved it can be done (facing up to all the challenges of logistics, supply chain e.t.c.) and talk was of net profit for the current year exceeding last year's bumper result and amounting to about $85m which on 222.5m shares = 38.2 cents per share. If it meets forecast its trading on a forward PE of 18.3
WHS if they make $173m normalized profit to be announced on 29 September will have eps of 50 cps at at today's closing price of $3.80 trades on a PE of just 7.6
I would argue as times get tougher consumers will head down the road to make more value based buying decisions and "look through" Briscoes so called sales and specials.
You should be right, but as JCPenny and their new CEO learnt in 2012 the psychology suggests you're not.
https://hbr.org/2012/05/can-there-ever-be-a-fair-price
They lost close to a billion dollars and their new CEO became their old CEO looking for a job.
But I agree with you...apart from when I going shopping apparently.
Despite our literal addition to sales-induced dopamine releases, how sustainable is this model in the long-term though?
I note in the article that "Jcpenney’s own data suggest that customers’ “hunger” for sales has increased dramatically over time, such that discounts of 60% are now required to get shoppers to buy, up from 38% 10 years ago."
Another observation. There has been a lot of comparisons across the retail chains - especially Briscoe to WHS. The main difference I see is Briscoes understands their customer, the average Kiwi. WHS and their offshore egos still think Amazon is their largest competitor and that the big Red Sheds are a necessary evil. Kiwi shopping habits are changing, but never underestimate the importance of bricks and mortar and a large community presence. Know your customer.
Disc: I have WHS in my portfolio …. No Briscoe though as I missed that boat. Perhaps a little bit jealous
"3.60"
have to be a terrible report.
but if the stock does get there you wont have much time to buy.
now MR B has predicted long term 7 dollars. :t_up:
Assume you are talking about the Red Sheds
I've heard that argument so many times over the years but it seems based on misconceptions and not backed up by the numbers
Red Sheds over the last 16 years have grown sales at 0.9% pa (best year before this year 4.7% as well as several negative years)
Those 16 years have seen the ups and downs of the economic cycle - and interesting post GFC 2008 through 2011 Red Sheds sales declined every year. Tough times they said and even though NZ retail sales remained pretty positive there wasn't many 'heading down the road to make more value based decisions' at the Red Sheds
But then Red Shed sales might be up about 5% this year (and v 2019) just to prove that this time things are truly different
Don’t forget there has been a significant reduction in Red Shed floor space, so red shed sales per Square foot have risen fairly quickly over the last few years (a big push from management for higher “density” sales) This is because all the Warehouse Stationary store within a store sales in red sheds are not included in Red Shed revenue, and they take up a significant amount of floor space. So this has pushed up sales per square foot for red shed obviously given revenue / square footage has increased with the 25 new SWAS locations (another 20 yet to be added).
Effectively red sheds have been downsized significantly while still managing to grow revenue. (Part of the reason operating profits have increased so dramatically with the big reduction in operating costs for this endeavor)
Latest Warehouse advertising in Te Reo extoling the virtues of the Warehouse being a merchant that cares about being both "sustainable and affordable" hits all the right ESG buttons so is bound to impress the target market.
That's a worry - hope they don't follow on the tracks of another well discussed "pink" company, shall we?
I know, different industry, but they started as well with Te Reo, being sustainable and a funny colour scheme.
But the good thing is, the WHS doesn't process milk ... yet :);
I’ve always respected the work of Aswath Damodaran whose a finance professor and investor
He recently wrote a good piece on ESG. Is well worth a read.
The ESG Movement: The "Goodness" Gravy Train Rolls On!
Last year, I wrote a post on ESG and explained why I was skeptical about the claims made by advocates about the benefits it would bring to companies, investors and society. In the year since, I have heard from many on the topic, and while there are some who agreed with me on the internal inconsistencies in its arguments, there were quite a few who disagreed with me. In keeping with my belief that you learn more by engaging with those who disagree with you, than those who do, I have tried my best to see things through the eyes of ESG true believers, and I must confess that the more I look at ESG, the more convinced I become that "there is no there there". More than ever, I believe that ESG is not just a mistake that will cost companies and investors money, while making the world worse off, but that it create more harm than good for society.
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/...avy-train.html
I read that piece earlier this week. In general it reinforces my view that for consumer facing companies (like WHS certainly is) - ESG is a “hygiene” issue - eg it’s a minimum requirement that won’t bring extra rewards to the company, but not having a strong ESG effort will have a detrimental impact on revenue as some consumers won’t shop with you out of principle.
Maybe so but majority of consumers see through ESG 'efforts' for what they are ...and often have an 'adverse' impact
Some interesting insights in this US study
The Corporate Social Mind
https://www.thecorporatesocialmind.com/researchusa
This bit from Aswath is good -
On a personal note, I have always found that the people that I've known who do good, spend very little time talking about being good or lecturing other people on goodness. I would extend that perspective to companies and investment funds as well, and I reserve my skepticism for those companies that spend hundreds of pages of their annual filings telling me how much "good" they do.
Hey BlackPeter - Synlait come to light eh ....and HLG had pages and pages about People, Planet etc etc
Warehouse going that way --- enough said
Maybe ESG is an acronym for Environmental & Social Grandstanding ;)
No amount of greenwashing could ever make WHS an ethical investment. To invest or not invest is down to the individual, but don't kid yourself about the nature of the business.
Briscoes has another one of their so called sales and sells a customer an electric jug at a so called deeply discounted price e.g. https://www.briscoes.co.nz/product/1...steel-toaster/
WHS sells you a house brand jug for about half the price and make no claim that its deeply discounted. https://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/p/liv.../R2637720.html
Which company is a fair and reasonable retailer selling products to families that they need at a fair price and which company is engaging in disingenuous, perhaps even unethical behavior ?
Before you claim that they're different brands I can tell you that if you take the time to compare any number of different items in Briscoes at their so called sale prices with any number of similar things in the WHS at their regular prices it will become clear who is the fairer and more ethical retailer and who is meeting families needs in a fair and ethical way.
Both know their target market and do well .
Briscoes has a history, under Rod Duke of knowing their market,and channels to supply their market, better than WHS.
WHS has failed far too often trying to be a supermarket,a financial group,an Australian retailer etc,while Rod Duke has stayed foccused.WHS still have a lot of leases,store closures issues to work their way through.
I was horrified the other day when I saw Hallensteins had gear at 73% OFF
Almost immoral
Doubt there would be much difference. My last Briscoes experience last year. No brand name small vacuum cleaner for my home office, modest sized bit of no big name brand gear made in China, retail was $699 at Briscoes and they claimed it was "on sale" at $199. Anyone who paid $699 would need their head examined. Sheffield small vacuum cleaner from Mitre Ten of all places, (using airpoints to purchase was $89) and still works fine. Both about the same size. Some companies engage in disingenuous and unethical sales practices and others don't.
Who's to say a Homebrand WHS electric jug won't last the same length of time as one twice the price, allegedly on sale at Briscoes, certainly not you or I.
Its the age old priced for perfection argument though isn't it mate. Are their better gains to be had backing the underdog with plenty of room for improvement on a (soon to be historical) PE of 7 or the retailer priced for perfection on a forward PE of 18 ?
For years people on here told me RYM was the best pick and about 6 years ago I called it as priced too much for absolute perfection and its underperformed the rest of the sector ever since.
I reckon there's more money backing underdogs on dirt cheap metrics with plenty of room for improvement.
"Helping Kiwi's live better every day" http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...487/332946.pdf See pages 44 & 45.
Nice cyclical try but it doesn't hold water...
51 pages is too big to cut and paste https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/...port_20211.pdf
I'll spice that up with some stuff about Diversity and Inclusion and Te Reo just for you https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/...sity-inclusion
Of course you're free to believe whatever you like. I believe they provide essential basics to ordinary Kiwi families at a very affordable and fair price.
All that stuff must cost zillions - formulating the strategy and rules, continuous monitoring, reporting, ticking the boxes, taking action again those that don't comply etc etc ...and then producing that report
Wonder how many zillions spent ...and what return on the 'investment'
Suppose shareholders pay for this
Habits. …you remember when they sold grog
I hear ya that ESG is costly...but the pure capitalist cynic in me thinks that whether all this ESG stuff is just greenwashing / environmental & social grandstanding or whether it has more substance to it doesn't really matter. At the end of the day customers lap this stuff up like a lamb desperate for a feed of its mothers milk and the net cost is therefore negligible provided the company doesn't do a Synlait on us and go really "extremist".
One good thing WHS does is support the Future Director scheme
Caroline Rainsford Should bring valuable insights to the Board while developing her skills in directorship.
They gave $250,000 to Women's refuge a couple of months ago, pretty decent sized donation and they also (whatever one's views on this are) repaid the wage subsidy of (from memory) over $50m which they legally could have kept. In terms of having a corporate social conscience they don't look too bad to me. Certainly not "unethical" like one newbie poster opined yesterday.
I guess that would be me.
Giving money to charities is classic greenwashing from companies that are fundamentally unethical in terms of their effect on the planet and the source of their products. Macdonalds give lot's of money to kids charities but that doesn't change the fact that it's "product" is fundamentally bad for kids. Or the Oil industry saying they are all about sustainability. I could care less about what you choose to do with your money but don't kid yourself that WHS is an ethical company.
What does briscoes do for the environment, lgbt inclusion and a host of other issues?
have they repaid their wage subsidy yet.
not sure exactly what your beef with WHS is, but everything is relative and I doubt you would find many that would disagree with the statement that WHS is more ethical than many other large retailers in NZ. Yes a large amount of their stock is made in Asia, but that is no different to any other major houseware/clothing/electronics retailer. On the other measures (treatment of its staff, charitable initiatives, local environmental impact) it appears to be doing well, and the fact a large chunk of its profits generated end up going to the tindall foundation is something that other large retailers probably don’t have (does rod duke have a large charity effort?)
I cannot bring myself to support Rod Duke despite his business being a good investment, indeed best in category. They do not hold a trusted position or show community involvement like MFT and FPH for example. They are just a balance sheet with yet another sale each week. I think there is a real opportunity if WHS can position itself as a good corporate citizen with honest pricing. Their stores are so widely distributed and a mainstay of small town NZ. If they can move on from the cheep and nasty image to occupying a position higher up the ladder, there is a huge opportunity for growth.
Very well said. That's the thing with this one...really compelling metrics, (PE of just over 7), and very high dividend yield with heaps of room for improvements to their business model and the financial results that come from that.
Briscoes has enjoyed record profit, revenue and share price growth.
Maybe they can "be kind" and repay their wage subsidy like the warehouse.
Ok thanks. good to know :)
Briscoes were the first to repay the subsidy by memory. Master stroke by Duke, big calls came for WHS to follow suit which they did. But Briscoes won the the day of public opinion.
I couldn't in all good conscience own Briscoes shares because their business model is mostly built around deception. Sales every week, sometimes more than once a week deceiving customers they are getting a genuine sale price. It doesn't feel morally right because in my opinion it isn't.
Companies that are repetitively disingenuous with their marketing are egregiously breeching a social and moral code of fair play in my opinion and this marks them out as one of the worst ESG offenders on the NZX, right up there with sin stocks like SKC as far as I am concerned.
I don't have a "beef" with WHS as you put it - more that people are deluding themselves, maybe others, in engaging ethical whataboutery. Can anyone seriously argue that the WHS model of cheapness over quality is good for the environment? And charity giving isn't the point - see my comment on Mcdonalds (another big charity giver). It is revealing that most of the material that people post on here supporting WHS as an "ethical" company comes from WHS itself. That is because the WHS doesn't like to co-operate with independent studies - another giveaway. Given the huge range of it's products from China, I have serious doubts whether WHS knows what conditions those products are made in. Sorry to bug you about ethics - I'll stop now. Ethical investing doesn't seem to be a big issue on this site.
Your argument is appears to be predicated on the assumption that if you pay twice as much for a similar product on so called sale at Briscoes it will last twice as long. I think your argument is fundamentally flawed and without any basis in fact or study.
Calling a company unethical for selling basic needs items to people are fair prices, (without disingenuous sales and marketing tactics) is in my opinion the wrong adjective. You could call them environmentally insensitive but then I would draw your attention to your assumption that because something is cheaper its inferior and has a vastly shorter lifespan.
I just noticed this morning that the electric jug I inherited from my share of My Mum's chattels is a Living and co house brand Warehouse jug. She had it for many many years before I got it to replace the Briscoes jug that burned out recently :p
That's where we fundamentally disagree. For example, ask almost anyone with a high end European car whether its more reliable than a Toyota Corolla that costs just a fraction of the price. I'm going to leave it at that with you as I think you are basing your viewpoint on a fundamentally flawed assumption.
I'm still in the opinion of a range 3.70-3.90 till the result. Then let's see where it goes
Historic results are coming out great ...almost all know but market seems more worried about future prospects . Delta seems tough nut to crack even for our lockdown Queen . Even after 5 weeks of level 4 ...its not slowing down .....Now retail maybe little different both in store and online .
I think it comes down to the owner as to how long items last, a toyota could end up at the wreckers alot faster than a few months, likewise a toy or clothing that is well looked after can end up at a toy library or op shop. I think its wrong to blame a store for the way the consumers use their goods.
https://www.thewarehousegroup.co.nz/...ource-to-shelf
Just a quick google. You must feel relieved I could find this out for you. No more sleepless nights.
Yes i know its from the WHS group, but seriously they need to protect their suppliers and sources from competitors, standard business practise.
Don't stop sharing opinions but maybe they are better placed on a K-Mart thread somewhere...
I disagree with your first sentence - when it comes to household goods it is not at all as you state - numerous consumer product testing roundups routinely find that much of the medium-higher priced products have failure rates no better than the low priced goods. Often the higher priced items are even made in the same Chinese factories as the lower priced items, and the only thing one gets for the extra money is the brand badge.
NZ Credit Card balances at a 9 year low.
perfect setup for a retail spending boom once aucklanders are unleashed.
Quote:
The August level of credit card debt fell sharply again, now down to under $5.7 bln. This is its lowest in more than nine years, after peaking at $7.5 bln at the end of 2019. The proportion of this debt incurring interest is now less than 55%, the lowest level ever. The level of transaction activity going through credit cards is falling too, with the August $3.1 bln the lowest August since 2017. In fact, credit cards were used less in August than in the traditional shadow months of January and February. This latest lockdown obviously helps/(hurts, depending on who you are), but these latest levels are all lower than in previous lockdowns.
Got chatting with a good mate on the weekend. He remarked how pleased he was during lockdown his wife couldn't hammer their joint credit card.
This month's bill less than $2,000, down from the usual $6-7,000. My goodness she must be scary high maintenance (I thought to myself without actually saying it).
Looking forward to WHS reporting on 29 September.
"$6-7,000."
a new designer top then.
Yeah, I think its crystal clear his wife doesn't shop at the Warehouse and neither does he ! In fact I got chatting to him about the WHS once and it was clear he thought shopping there was "beneath" him. This old mutt however has never forgotten his poor background.
Yes the stories from ones parent and their parent generations are sobering.
With EVG saga on going and the fire likely to spread some buying opportunities might still be coming down the ticker tape. High yield crisis in china was warned about for the last few years and it hardly new news.
Remember the Great depression came 2 years after the crash though to be fair monetary policy was probably also a big contributor.
Not buying that they have this under control and the fire is out.
Most of the china property developers are heavy in debt... once the collapse starts its hard to stop and it could be like the virus story. To little to late and they are shouting fire fire ... sure Hong Kong property developers are in good shape but the BOND Yield for EVG is going higher with more debt being bought by overseas investors..
Imagine they are running towards the FIRE!!! and BUYING!
WHS is almost BLUE CHIP NOW.
I've never forgotten my poor background either ..... but heck I look really cool and the envy of many when I go out on my Wild South woolen pea coat.....and goes well with my Hiut jeans
Wore it on a trip around the harbour on a cruising yacht - the skipper really was envious because it looked so maritime and tried on it on and said yes that's for me.
Dont think you can buy that gear at The Warehouse
Rod and Gun at KIP malls then...
Their debt has been rated Junk for years now, so I consider the contagion risk minimal. None of the large financial institutions internationally these days have large exposure to junk bonds in a way that would cripple them, especially Chinese junk bonds. And these bonds aren’t leveraged in any way either so it’s nothing at all like the CDO/CDS crisis. People rushing into the bonds are just betting on Xi not letting them default, or restructuring the debt to some degree so bond holders still receive some sort of payout (hoping for a repeat of the Greek government bonds - which have increased in value by 3500% from their lows). Either way shareholders in the company will be hurting, but that’s not actually a huge event these days. Storm in a teacup.
"Storm in a teacup"
hardly ...not a global event like GFC but it far bigger than a tea cup... 300 billion on this one and there are many others.. Where there is one there are many more.
it could be just the start and it starts this week.
China now cant let this one slide unless it get stop the others going with it..
No one knows how far this one goes.
"non-story."
hope not, price volatility. some lower prices for WHS!!!
The 'wall of worry'will hang around for awhile
WHS to pay all fully vaccinated staff a $ 100 bonus in December https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...-covid-vaccine
Probably a good idea but sad that we seem to be reaching a resistance level with vaccinations here now and Government, community leaders and businesses increasingly talking about the need to "incentivise"
WHS management know its more cost effective to bribe/award employees than risk more lockdowns.
A know a manager of a small construction company who called up a pharmacy and asked if he could arrange for his 100 employees to come in and all get vaccinated. The pharmacy were happy to do this.
Businesses pushing to get us to 90% so that no more lockdowns. No more lost sales. Can't rely on government.
The other day on TV breakfast they were asking for idea's on how to increase the vaccination rates for Maori and Pacific Island ethnicities.
I reckon set up vaccination centers at KFC stores. Free bucket of KFC for every vaccination done. https://kfc.co.nz/menu/buckets
That would solve a lot of problems eh.
Sad that Warehouse have to bribe their staff to have this done.
"That would solve a lot of problems "
yes well you have found the problem.
"KFC outlets in Ukraine"
how far east are you thinking, right out to the war zone? removed the rest of the post for NZ consumption it may seem a little far fetched.
My wife did a click & collect at Miter10 yesterday - took 2hrs 10 minutes actually at Mire 10 so who says there may not be pent up demand at other retailers
Was looking at "the market" the other day for something - they seem to be a bit more expensive than some other retailers and even perhaps the warehouse itself.
Disc: Current holder
MightyApe.co.nz > TheMarket.com
[QUOTE=Rawz;911901]MightyApe.co.nz > TheMarket.com[/QUOTE
The markets getting better but I also like mighty ape.
As suggested
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...YLHJVF5I4HWMM/
Join the dots...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-...L7EOWZLWN2Y4I/
Free bucket of KFC with every jab...its only a matter of time lol
Give us a brief review of the ebike when you recieve it. I'm interested in nabbing one from the same site.
"Free bucket of KFC with every jab...its only a matter of time lol"
Oh dear well perhaps the labour government and TV1 morning news (the left wing news arm of the labour party) can take your idea and run with it as they run out of ideas how to get their voter base out to get vaccinated.
Lets face it most of the billions spent has been so because the govt was slow to get it voters working at the border and MIQ vaccinated. Even Fyfe called it a slow train wreck.
Its almost as pathetic as the 3 waters add that looks like Billy T James wrote the script and is aimed at the same audience as those who the government cant get vaccinated.
Anyway at 3.72-75 WHS is a buy and it is likely this fabulous price is the result of the lockdowns and government policy. BUY WHS!
Yesterday was the day... its moving up out of the blocks.