A call option priced >$0 suggests that you're not confident that PEB will rise above $2 during March.
Is the hog right or is the hog right?
Printable View
There seems to be a greater focus on the shareprice going up or down by a few cents, mainly by traders who post on ST which is OK that's what they do.
Being an investor my focus is on the company and how it's future and mine are tracking.
What I see so far is the business is building a solid Economic Moat around itself, by being able to keep competitors at bay, DD quote that they are at least 3 years ahead of the competitors that's good.
They have all patents locked securely away I think in the US it's for 7 years before they are reviewed and renewed that's good. They have on going products in the pipeline some coming online this year that's good. Locking customers unfortunate people that have to be All we need now is for management to convert all the sales coming through into profit and the free cash flow passed on to investors.
Well, have just (indirectly) become a client of this wonderful company and have experienced the first part of the process.
Brent Pownall was very knowledgeable and very good at explaining the ins and outs of the process. Courier showed up at my door when Brent said it would and courier bag is already on its way back to them. The actual physical process is well documented and I managed to get things done in line with what's required.
Seems to be cheaper for Kiwi clients than our US counterparts.
Very impressed so far. Now we wait for the outcome ....
Interesting. Brighton_Early isn't so confident that PEB will be "well over" $2 (per postings in this thread above) that s/he is willing to guarantee a $2 level sometime end March.
Who would? Exactly the point, and possibly the point that Brighton_Early missed in her/his rush.
This is the hog's point. Lots of posting here from existing holders continually trying to talk it up.
Noteworthy: somebody wants to take a discussion offline and then post-discussion threatens to make it public. Speaks to temperament, trust, and ego.
Note:
- Anyone can claim others are wasting their time. It's all about one's perspective
- All talk about $100k positions but without option pricing is completely meaningless
Seems like BE is willing to pay you a premium of $100,000 to purchase call options from you?
That's risking $100k to back his assertion that PEB's sp will be above $2.00.
1,850,000 shares @ strike price of $2.00 vs current share price of $1.71 = 29c downside protection before you have to front up with shares at $2.00?
Seems a fair deal to me since you are so negative on PEB?
If PEB remain below $2.00 (your view), you keep $100k.
Wish they would take their argument elsewhere. Turning this thread into another SNK
BE and warthog going to do a bit of betting between themselves
Go and watch the end of the Superbowl and now it seemscontest between warthog and Balance
Things move fast when one is having fun
You couldn't be more wrong. You have no clue as to what B_E was offering (and neither is the hog, by the way).
So the conclusion is that you, Balance and B_E are just PEB groupies, stroking one another's egos. Whatever.
So keep on pumping each other's ST rep, and dumping the hog's, as if you believe in ST reputation anyway.
Nope, it stops here (at least, for the hog).
Note that if anybody has a so-called off-forum discussion with Brighton-Early, there is every chance that it will be posted publicly anyway.
For the record the hog is comfortable with the discussion off-list.
But others, take note.
Apologies for the off-topic diversion.
BE confirmed what was written by me above :
1. He believes PEB will be $2.00 by 26 March 2014. You disagree and go as far as to accuse his bullishness as 'talking the sp up'.
2. BE makes you a proposal - $100k for a call option on 1.85m shares exercisable at $2.00.
Your bluff was called and you chickened out.
It's ok - that's what Warthogs do - run like chickens?
New shît has come to light:
http://www.metacafe.com/w/an-KDCBJYumthbmnJ
Have noticed before, the Hog is more talk then walk.
Sometimes this forum degenerates into vacuous strutting. Pity really.
This bickering is something best put behind us, chaps. Please swallow your pride and move on.
PEB bounced nicely off 150c a week ago and climbed well to test its earlier top of 175c. There now appears to be a lot of selling pressure but for how long? Is a March inclusion in the NZX50 a certainty? Doesn't it depend on liquidity (currently less than an average of 500k per day).
Does anyone know the liquidity requirement?
Im sending you all to watch "The Wolf Of Wall street" with a bucket of harvey wall bangers. Youve gotta say yes to another excess and money isn't everything ;....Its EVERYTHINK and Love is an accessory and you are ALL Hustling.:D;):t_up:;):glare::closed eyes::cool::D
BC.. I am not interested in the inclusion of the NZX50.. Or the Selling pressure.. Liquidity .. et.al..
Not being a Trader !!.
I think that there is an upside in this company from all of my.... Call it what you want ....
Are you a Trader ?? or an Investor ??
I hold ... DYOR !!..
[QUOTE=warthog;458981]So the conclusion is that you, Balance and B_E are just PEB groupies, stroking one another's egos. Whatever
His analysis speaks for itself.Probably you can enlighten us with some.
Sharetrader! I come here for the analysis but I stay for the comments!
Traders still in there although they are getting fewer each week as longer term players invest in the stock.
A big correction like we have in the States will inevitably spook more of the traders out.
My advice has always been - invest within your comfort zone, and sleep well at night!
I guess if comparable US biotech stocks are falling in value then this could have some impact on PEB but then again this stock is relatively isolated in the sector (being NZX listed) and the instos have had their interest has piqued, particularly in light of the pending NZX50 listing.
Personally I think this stock is way overvalued considering where it is in its sales pipeline but I definitely concede that its likely to keep rising on further announcements and the price may stay ahead of its growth trajectory until it consolidates in its slow growth phase. But thats all the fun & games of valuing growth stocks.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see it launched sooner rather than later now, seems to be close, clinical trials successfully completed, PEB regard it as being “market ready”, and it’s presently in “preparation for commercial launch”.
With the recent capital raising cash allocated to advancing the Cxbladder suite along and PEB expecting to process several ten's of thousands of tests this year, all the stars seem to be aligning for a new product launch from cashflows.
This from the website;
“Cxcolorectal is a prognostic gene signature for patients diagnosed with stage II or stage III colorectal cancer. The test predicts the aggressiveness of the tumour, allowing physicians to make the best decision regarding treatment for the patient. The gene signature passed a clinical study in Europe and Pacific Edge is currently refining Cxcolorectal to reduce cost and increase ease of delivery of the service. Cxcolorectal (Prognosis Gen I) has completed clinical trials and is preparing for commercial launch.”
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/products/pipeline/
Edit: Kindly pointed out by Miner, tens of thousands, not thousands.
Think it was several " tens " of thousands, Mac which puts a larger picture on it. Once some decent sales figures come out, I agree, it will be all go for colorectal, triage, etc. On top of that the infrastructure is in place on their part plus they will have a trained up sales force with a proven product once the sales come in. Good common sense seems to prevail with this company - long may it continue
PEB price held up well today, new products coming, NZX50 listing coming. Looking good for holders. Glad I got in early. :t_up:
Just in case anyone asks about the test kit - or queries the breakability of the test tube - especially by rough Couriers, I can tell you it is not made of glass (despite its appearance). Here is the official makeup ...
The Cxbladder tube is made of heavy plastic, specifically
- Tube = PET (Polyethylentherephthalate)
- Cap = PE (polyethylene)
- Disc = PP (Polypropylene)
- Rubber part = Brombutyl rubber
These people really have it sorted in the little areas as well as the big areas.
They must have had a good laugh when the one I sent in arrived in bubble wrap!! (Mind you, this was on the advice of the lady at NZ Post).
Happy days
Cellmid attracts higher $0.084 share price target: Perth broker
Tuesday, February 04, 2014 by Proactive Investors
Cellmid has a higher share price target from a new research report citing Cxbladder launch and and the Advangen Inc acquisition
Cellmid has a higher share price target from a new research report citing Cxbladder launch and and the Advangen Inc acquisition
Cellmid (ASX: CDY) is the subject of a research report from RM Capital. Here is a summary of the note.
First-in-Class mAb Oncology Program Will Rerate the Stock; Lots of Room To Grow For Advangen; New Target Price of 8.4c
Summary - In the 10 months since our last update Cellmid has had several major announcements, trial results, Cxbladder launch and the Advangen Inc acquisition. In view of that we provide a company update and our fresh view on Cellmid going forward.
Whilst the share price since our last report remained range bound between 3c – 5c, we believe that the company has moved to the next level and is currently significantly undervalued by investors.
Cellmid now has (A) a first-in-class oncology program (anti-midkine monoclonal antibody) that we expect to go into clinic late 2014 / early 2015; (B) a global consumer healthcare brand for hair loss with successfully launched products in Australia and Japan; and (C) a royalty stream from the Cxbladder test that was launched in the US in 2013.
Our price target of 8.4c (+1.2c vs. previous) include: 3.9c (+1.2c vs previous) for the consumer healthcare business; 1.7c (-1.3c vs. previous) for the LungDx test; and 2.8c (+1.3c) for the Cxbladder test.
We do not currently include the oncology program into our model, but believe that this represents major upside for the share price and our current valuation in the next 12-18 moths, once the program is at the clinical stage (first trial in humans).
Moving to oncology with anti-MK antibody is the right decision - We support management’s choice to progress with a cancer indication, rather than diabetic nephropathy.
In our view, if the company is successful in moving into the clinic with the oncology program, the quality of that asset will put Cellmid in the same echelon as US biotechs that are developing first-in-class antibodies as cancer therapeutics (e.g. Onconova, Oncomed, Verastem).
Even in the US, such companies represent a rare opportunity, as most of the industry R&D is focused on the same targets (e.g VEGF, VEGFR, EGFR, PI3K). In contrast, Cellmid is the first and only company to target midkine and will have significantly lower differentiation risks, easier clinical development and regulatory pathways (see pages 4-5 of the report).
There are only a few companies in Australia with first-in-class antibody programs that employ new mechanism of action, with Patrys (ASX: PAB) as the only other we are aware of. We believe that positive data from the midkine program will validate overseas interest and upside for investors.
Advangen and consumer healthcare - lots of room to grow - We currently value Cellmid’s consumer healthcare business at 3.9c (vs. 2.7c previously) as we include the Advangen Inc. acquisition and update our estimates for its Australian subsidiary.
In our view, investors underestimate the fact that Advangen has a global consumer health brand and with management taking all necessary steps to increase the brand equity, it’s just a matter of time until it becomes a very significant business.
This represents substantial upside to the current share price, once the company moves ahead with their commercial strategy. According to a recent industry report, the leading hair care brands are valued between $0.9B and $2.9B, and we see a big opportunity for Advangen in major markets given its therapeutic claims.
We expect considerable increase in product sales in CY2014, CY2015. In our valuation we only consider Australia, China and Japan while note that all additional markets (rest of Asia, North America, EU) represent significant mark up to our valuation.
Update on diagnostics segment (see inside note for details) - Last quarter Pacific Edge completed the first commercial sales of its Cxbladder tests signalling the start of the royalty revenues to CDY. We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.
We are a bit disappointed in Quest’s lack of action regarding the LungDx test. As a result we reduce our market penetration rates and postpone the launch to FY2015 to remain conservative. We Value LungDx at 1.7c (vs. 3c previously).
We change our royalty rate on diagnostic business from 2% to 4% in line with the current industry standards. We believe that future molecular diagnostic partnership could add 2 cents per share per test.
Action and recommendation - with positive investors sentiment towards biotechnology sector and upside opportunities coming from each of Cellmid’s three business units (therapeutics, diagnostics, consumer healthcare) we reiterate our Speculative Buy recommendation and increase our target price to 8.4 cents.
Interesting stuff re the connection of CDY and PEB.
Even PAB gets a mention.
I particularly like this bit regarding the CXBladder Test
We are increasing our estimates of market share and valuation to 2.8c (+1.3c vs previously) given the better than expected reimbursement landscape for the test.
See next posting, (was getting round to it):)
Reading between the lines it looks like the industry for royalties has moved to 4 percent royalty vs what PEB negotiated some years back with CDY of 2 percent ?
It would be wise for PEB to take a 10.1 percent holding for 2.6 million to block a takeover to give security for the long term IP portfolio. Just a thought as I'm not sure if the oz market is the same here with delisting a share if they can't get the last 10.1%
Depressing stuff from the mainstream media. On the plus side I suppose it can't hurt PEBs position? A tidal wave of cancer is a bleak picture.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/...ectid=11196931
As we know smoking is the largest cause of bladder cancer, here’s what ACC have to say;
http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/gr...ctrb096822.pdf
If smoking a pack a day costs around $6,250 per year or approximately $120 a week, based on pack of 20 that costs $17.20.
Then, a Cxbladder test for the peace of mind of a smoker, or a former smoker, at NZ$320, represents less than three week’s worth of smokes.
Quite a potential global market in itself of concerned wheezer's, the challenge being how would Pacific Edge advertise directly to smokers for their benefit ?
Thanks Brighton early good point, I don't have a bio background so am unsure if they have an exclusive IP on a biomarker that PEB needs essential for the cx bladder
Thnx, T - I found it interesting that up until the year 2000, the association between cigarette smoking and urinary tract cancer was never systematically quantified, and that now that it has been, it appears (for Europe at least) that half of urinary tract cancers in males, and one third in females, may be attributable to smoking. I'm now feeling even more pleased that with a little divine help I kicked the habit many years ago.
I'm left wondering however why it is with all of this present Government's support for anti-smoking campaigns, related taxation, etc that there has been no Ministry of Health incentive for DHBs to jump on board with PEB (Mid Central Health up in the Waikato is the only one it seems, and that happened several months ago). Anybody got any insight into a reason for these DHB delays?
Suspect any perceived slowness of uptake is due to thorough testing and verification of the claims of cxbladder.
The last comments from leading urologists in the USA (see PEB website) was that it was a wonderful new tool and they were definitely interested. Previous products weren't good enough to gain traction.
A couple of questions about inclusion in the NZX50.
Might the prospect of this be one of the reasons the SP has held up so well recently?
How might inclusion influence buying behaviour, and ultimately SP, prior to and post the announcement? The additional ‘willing’ buyers (instos) would, unless met by willing sellers, drive price up presumably. But might smaller retail investors also want further shares at the current price before the big dogs put a floor under it?
Have never held a stock at the time it is added to (or removed from) the NZX50 so the machinations of it all are kind of interesting.
Disc: HOLD
I don't think this has too much to do with it.
Interesting to look at this for example, the DOW biotech index and how that's tracking over recent times:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djusbt
Good points to raise Snapiti.
Yes there were other products before CX Bladder that gave it a go, however they were less accurate and comparatively unproven which seemed to be their downfall. Pacific Edge have gone about this the right way by improving accuracy and then testing first.
As for the 25 years with no change point, that's because a better alternative wasn't there. It is now, and change will be driven by customers demanding a pee test rather than a camera insert! Urologists will be forced to change to keep up, or risk losing clients.
I remember DD saying at the last AGM - and no doubt he's said it before (perhaps someone can clarify exact working) - is that in the early days before cxBladder was conceived, the Pacific Edge team actually went around GPs and urologists and asked them what they wanted to improve their clinical work ups and thus tailor made the product / service to suit. I couldn't tell you if they approached urologists in the United States as well as NZ but this would suggest to me - in NZ at least - that they may not be as happy as one might think with current practice.
Cheers
We need our DHB managers to be culturally conservative and professional, lives do depend on that.
I don’t think the DHB’s have been slow to pick up Cxbladder one bit and I find such a suggestion by one or two posters to be quite cynical actually.
What Pacific Edge have been pursuing in New Zealand over the last two years with the good and fair assistance of the DHB’s, is product development in parallel with an introductory commercialisation phase for the product, quite ambitious yes, but an overlap is both necessary and pragmatic in bringing a new product to the market.
This has allowed Pacific Edge to work through the clinical trial stage, the US regulatory stage (CLIA), and now the user programme stage of that introductory process.
The user programme studies are only now just complete and the results are due to be presented at the USANZ conference in Brisbane next month, this is likely to be the catalysing point from which the DHB’s and Australian organisations may start to dip their feet in the water and consider the long term regular use of Cxbladder.
Of interest to all the DHB’s will be the Mid Central Health DHB economic evaluation results which are being performed as a 400 test user programme. It must be anticipated by Pacific Edge that this programme should also demonstrate the one third reduction in work up costs.
Onward and forward.
Great post MAC! I was having a look at the program for USANZ (http://www.usanz2014.com/uploads/677...ram_31_Jan.pdf) but I can't find any mention of a presentation by David Darling or on cxbladder. Do you have a better idea as to when the results will be presented?
I'm very much looking forward to the next few months as we get a better indication of the potential uptake of cxbladder.
Not sure of the timing, PEB were the silver sponsor at the USANZ conference in November, perhaps they are doing something similar in Brisbane. You may need to contact them if you are going to attend for just one day.
"The study results will be published by way of a presentation at the Urological Society of Australia and New Zealand (USANZ) Annual Scientific Meeting in March 2014."
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/240937
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/news-an...tific-meeting/
This is where I was going with my second question earlier. The funds buy because they have too (dogma approach - the kind of approach that Lynch maintains gives smaller investors an edge). Any additional buying must put pressure on the price, unless met equally by sellers. Leaving the sellers to one side, how much additional buying could we expect from passive funds? Material or otherwise?
hard to say, but given the number of people on this thread who seem to want instant gratification in price appreciation, I can imagine there will be plenty of supply. Also, active funds are no slugs, they will surely be accumulating for this event as well?
My conclusion/assumption: don't expect fireworks from that particular announcement, expect it from the ones that actually count from the businesses perspective, i.e. sales, new products etc
Thanks Brighton. I am probably over simplifying this, but it seems to me that on one hand the impact of the pending inclusion might be moderated by phased insto buying pre (if policy allows it) and post announcement, effectively allowing for a degree of feathering in of a new "normal" for buying and selling activity.
However, the more important point you make here, to me at least, is the improved awareness and visibility of PEB to a new section of the investment market. I think that point, coupled with PEB's active promotional activity (road shows, urologist endorsement, sales people wearing out shoe leather and keyboards, etc), bodes well. The permutations are only positive to my mind.
Just a reminder - dont pay doctors for trial results : http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11197977
In this case the shorted a share, presumably because the drug trial was unsuccessful.
Wonder what the collapse of Obamacare and it's bailout will have on the healthcare providers in the US????
Obamacare is unlikely to collapse any time soon as it seems Boehner is winning the war (in his party) to go ahead with an unconditional raise in the debt ceiling (i.e. without the republican house majority demanding a repeal of obamacare provisions).
Conservative/Republican opposition aside - the Affordable Healthcare Act has actually been rather effective.
Looks like Cancer Weekly picked up the PR release the other day. All helps in spreading the word.
Pacific Edge Diagnostics Usa Ltd; Pacific Edge's Cxbladder Boosting Confidence in Bladder Cancer Detection
732 words
11 February 2014
Cancer Weekly
NCIW
67
English
(c) Copyright 2014 Cancer Weekly via NewsRx.com
2014 FEB 11 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Cancer Weekly -- Bladder cancer patients, survivors, and families faced with life-long surveillance of the highly recurring disease are finding reassurance in Cxbladder, a new bladder cancer detection test developed by Pacific Edge Ltd. This non-invasive, urine-based test measures the expression of five genes that create a unique molecular signature for bladder cancer, alerting doctors to possible tumors. More accurate(1) than many other urine-based cancer detection tests, Cxbladder can give patients and doctors added confidence in their diagnoses.
Bladder cancer has a very high rate of recurrence and often progresses quickly. Consequently bladder cancer patients live in a world of ongoing monitoring and clinical intervention, much of it is invasive and expensive. Cxbladder, previously available in several countries around the world from Pacific Edge, offers patients a non-invasive, accurate way to detect bladder cancer. Now, Cxbladder is available in the in the United States from Pacific Edge's new, dedicated CLIA laboratory and commercial headquarters in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
"I have been using Cxbladder extensively since June 2011," said Joe DiTrolio, M.D., a Board Certified Urologist and Professor of Surgery, Section of Urology/Department of Surgery, Rutgers New Jersey Medical School. "Over that time period, Cxbladder has proven to be the most accurate, non-invasive test for monitoring patients with either hematuria or known bladder cancer."
Clinicians are using Cxbladder to provide a number of clinical and patient advantages. The test can be used on patients presenting with hematuria to rule-in or rule-out the presence of bladder cancer, saving many patients the inconvenience, invasiveness and cost of a full urological workup.
Researchers at Pacific Edge have found that messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of specific biomarker genes are typically present at higher levels in urine samples of patients that are positive for bladder cancer compared to urine samples from patients who are negative for the disease.
The performance of the Cxbladder test was evaluated in a formal clinical study and published in the Journal of Urology in 2012. The study shows that Cxbladder outperformed all of the other clinical technologies that were evaluated alongside it. In this study(1),( )Cxbladder correctly identified 100% of late stage tumors and 97% of high-grade tumors.
Just a small sample of urine is required for the test. Patient samples are collected in an easy, simple to use urine sampling system, analyzed at Pacific Edge Diagnostics' CLIA-certified and CAP-accredited laboratory in Hershey, Pennsylvania, and the results are sent to the physician within seven business days.
"The Cxbladder test is a wonderful new diagnostic tool in our evaluation process for patients with new onset hematuria and for patients who are being followed with known bladder cancer," said Guy Bernstein, M.D. a Board Certified Urologist at Urology Health Specialists in Bryn Mawr, PA.
Cxbladder is a quick, cost effective, non-invasive, accurate cancer detection test that has significant advantages to both patients and healthcare providers said Jackie Walker, Chief Executive Officer of Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA. "We are committed to fighting this disease, and early and accurate detection is a key part of that effort."
More than seven million Americans will have some form of blood in their urine (hematuria) resulting in more than one million undergoing evaluation this year for bladder cancer. It is estimated that 1 in 42 Americans will develop bladder cancer in their lifetime(2). The very high recurrence of this disease following a positive diagnosis requires some patients to receive expensive monitoring for the rest of their lives. Bladder cancer has the highest total medical costs of any cancer per patient. Nearly $3 billion is spent to treat bladder cancer each year in the US.
Patient education materials about Cxbladder are available at http://www.cxbladder.com. Pacific Edge also offers a Patient Financial Assistance Program to ensure access to this cutting edge test.
For more information about Cxbladder, contact Customer Service at Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA Ltd. at 1-855-CXBLADR (1-855-292-5237.
=emp=no internet=no ST=less ramping=$1.50
both - before healthcare reforms it was easy to make money with diagnostic tools of questionable value. must read for PEB holders:
http://media.drugwonks.com/media/att...pdf?1374059870
Interesting article. We hear a lot on this forum about CMS coverage but has anyone considered the impact of PEB not receiving this? Surely this would send the share price into a tailspin as its their largest viable market..?
Do you think they would go back to the drawing board/lab? Or fold like Predictive Bioscience?
Crumbs you can be a perma bear Whipmoney,
Have you some insight to share with the forum as to why CMS would not add cxbladder to their list of thousands of providers ?
The Cxbladder laboratory in the US has already achieved CMS approval (CLIA) and they have also taken a bold step in providing CLIA approval for the New Zealand laboratory. As I understand, it is very rare indeed for CMS to approval any lab outside of the US.
In addition, Cxbladder outperforms any pre-existing competitive providers they may have, it reduces bladder cancer work up costs by one third, and Pacific Edge guidance based on the natural ongoing progression of discussion with CMS to become a provider is really very positive.
Edit: per post below
Everything about the CertNdx story from inception to pulling the plug is fishy. They were only told to produce a convincing study. Isn't it strange that they shut it down given how great their product was?
If the science is good, then the risk is small and delays limited. Authorities in the US have a lot of discretion and work closely with respected experts. I think of it as a great moat to hold off the next CertNdx. It is also good that the US healthcare reforms place much greater emphasis on disease prevention. There are a lot of hyperboles in regards to Obamacare but many of the changes I read about seem quite sensible.
I'm amazed that they have 'promised' ten thousands of sales even without any coverage. I can't wait to see sales with insurers on board.
Wasn't intending to suggest it was a permanent state of mind or a categorising personality trait Winner, just that that particular post was really quite perma bearish and that it oozed an unreasonable outlook of misery without any knowledgeable supporting or factually corroborating analysis. Apologies to you Whipmoney if any offence was read, none was intended.
Mac
The management has hinted at several huge development that are possible this year:
1. CMS coverage
2. Significant sales volume this year
3. Additional products
4. Take-over offer
Why are people so obsessed with the NZX50 listing?
The whole US healthcare system is set up to make the big companies rich, stuff what the citizens want. It is essentially one big racket.
I guess is that ObamaCare is sure to make it worse. How ObamaCare will work has been written by lobbyists of the industries that benefit from the racketeering.
Lobbying is the game if one wants to succeed - not just getting the system working for you but what products can be used and all that
How does a little outfit from NZ get what it wants in this environment.
It has been said that Darling is a weak link in this respect. However I take heart from Balance when he reassured me that the Board had recognised this weakness and hired some gun US people as a de facto 'Board' in the US. That's good
But the past has seen many great products etc fail in the US because the 'right' people weren't on board with it.
Hopefully PEB have this under control but I see this as one of the biggest risks for them so that they don't, as our resident perma bear said earlier, fold like Predictive Bioscience (whoever they were)
If any doubts about how cheap PEB is heres a good table from http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/68...e-awkward-suit
These provide the upside.
This limits the downside, in the short term, which given the potential for upside, derisks the investment. I dont expect a large increase but beleive it puts a floor on the price.
The US comparive is a bit misleading as it is comparing predominately established low growth companies (Mircosoft, Oracle, etc) with early stage growth companies.
Yes at these levels PEB has 100m revenue - the stated 5-year goal - priced in. It's scary. But that's based on 10% market penetration with one product. If Cxbladder is really that good, then 80% market penetration or more are possible. Add to that the other products and you'll realize that there is still a lot of upside. Just think how much the product portfolio would be worth in the hands of Roche Diagnostics who know how to play the system top to bottom. Then think how much it would be worth to Roche Diagnostics and that's your price target.
This would not be very ethical, but I have always wondered if I could just ring up the lab in the states and pretend I am one of the patient's wanting to know when my results would be ready..
One day, I'll be Mr. Smith
Next day, Jones, and so on...
Much clearer understanding where sales is heading??
Maybe would have been better worded saying if he has a weakness or chink in his armour it is in the area I mentioned. Good risk management by PEB Board has seem them put together the best team they can, including an Advisory Board (think that what it is called) with real commercial experience in the US
How successful they lobby in the US I feel is still key .... it does seem a win or lose game and no in between
Certndx saw exponential growth. I would hope for that and not worry about the start of the curve. I thought they also see break-even at a slightly later stage?
On the 18th Oct when they announced first commercial sales were achieved in the states, it was 2 days after they had an agreement with fedmed.
I am also curious to know were these commericial sales set off from the fedmed agreement? Does anyone have any ideas?
If so, they these provider contracts are definitely generating sales for PEB..
It does look like they are generating sales, but how significant we can only speculate for now.
But if COMMERICIAL SALES were made straight after from the agreement, then it is definitely a positive sign
By epxonential I mean two data points ;)
Revenues from CertNDx were expected to be $14.5 million in 2013, up from $4.2 million in 2012, and $1 million in 2011.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/chris-walls/4/71a/500