Quick back of the envelope estimate of NTA adjusted for Covid 19 impact (NTA-V)
Average expectation of economists is for 6-9% reduction in real estate prices in the year ahead. Taking the mid point of 7.5% has an impact on OCA's portfolio of as at 31 December 2019 $1,496m of $112.2m, 18.25 cps
If we assume average real estate values went up 2.5% in the period from 31 December 2019 to the end of February 2020, before the Covid 19 became a worldwide pandemic, NTA + 2020G - V (the real estate market was very strong in January AND February 2020 so this looks like a reasonable assumption) we get a net forecast adjustment of ~ 5% to real estate prices. This works out to a net adjustment of 12.2 cpsa takes NTA + 2020G-V down to 89 cents per share.
Given the massive uncertainty of how this Covid 19 disease will play out I think the shares are fairly priced at 83 cents.
At this point my assessment is that at 83 cents OCA is trading on about a 6-7% discount to Covid 19 adjusted NTA which seems fair and reasonable.
By comparison I estimate MET's NTA + 2020G - V at $6.16 and at $4 they are trading at a 35% discount to adjusted NTA. MET looks considerably better value to me than OCA. All other companies in this sector look overpriced to me, RYM dramatically so and SUM also heavily overpriced.