The key to watch for is not fat as you call it as I would argue it doesn't exist. Like modandm I have also spent a bit of time over the years working with people in Air NZ's head office and have been nothing but impressed. They compare very favourably with other NZ head offices.
The keys to Air NZ's future performance are in the monthly operating stats they put out. Look for increasing capacity with stable or increasing margins and stable load factor's (I would argue these are currently at unsustainably high levels).
All of which have been happening for the last 6 months and for the following reasons should continue:
- Virgin Blue's exit from NZ (increased margins/load factor)
- Air NZ's new A320 domestic fleet (increased capacity)
- Virgin Blue / Air NZ trans tasman alliance (increased capacity & load factor from increased Australian and to a less degree NZ demand)
- Air NZ's new long haul fleet and international products (increased capacity & load factor from increased demand)
- Rugby World Cup (Increased international & domestic demand)
- Recovering economy (Increased international & domestic demand)