Whats even better is that your wife shows enough interest to take you, and show you.
Printable View
the shareprice is holding up remarkably well given overall weakness in global markets. Hopefully management release a trading update soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a change significant holder announcement too.
Someone seems to be buying on any weakness is it pie funds one has to ask. The so has been rock solid so far on down days tho with such a lack of liquidity either buying of selling a decent parcel will move the so significantly.
3 buyers bidding for a total of 43k @2.85 and not much on offer on sell side at that level, interesting to see how the day closes.
Yes as soon as any buying presure comes on someone's willing to bid it back up. Someone is happy to continue to accumulate st the current prices.
Strong open for the day, did we miss something?
Gosh something's up with this one $3.01 now, someone knows something perhaps....
So gutted I sold at $2.35 haha. Ah well
Buying in anticipation of a trading update perhaps ? Wonder when brokers will start to cover this storey
hit $3.03, up 17c today. The offer depth has fallen away. can't be far off an update..!
Wonder if we will get a speeding ticket the 6:1 buy sell ratio looks telling at this stage.
Happy to hold.....crossed my mind to sell with all the noise and doom in the market at the moment. Reason I bought them still remain....great product great management. They also have the benefit of the exchange rate changes as they export a lot of their products.
A recommendation in Fat profits moved it I think
Does anyone have access/ summary of key levels or recommendations?
It's really just following its recent trading patterns. A leg up, cool off, leg up, cool off.
Interesting comment re FP. I know TIL has been on their books for a while. I'm not a subscriber though so no idea whether they have released anything new
This is a link to the Trilogy Presentation in Australia
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/228900.pdf
Very detailed presentation it clearly indicates the growth of the business will be driven through Australia where both trilogy and ecoya are not in the top 3 of each target segment
Since 12th November 2015 and 27th January,2016 Pie Funds have brought 657,682 shares, between $1.65 and $2.925, taking their holding to 9.28% or 5,729,577 shares.
I would think they are "well positioned."
Wow I'm surprised they have bought all the way up to 290. I assume the off market trades of 75,000 shares has been them.
They must see some significant upside even from these levels. Could be a good result coming up. Exciting times
is this still good time to enter?
Misterx,Welcome to sharetrader.
You must be careful asking that sort of question.
Share Trader is a forum where we exchange ideas, views,information and research.
Some posters are very clever and you can learn a lot from them.
Others, who may seem to know what they are talking about,don't,so should you follow them, you will loose your shirt.
So if you like what you read on ShareTrader take that as a starting point for you research.
On www.nzx,com you can type in TIL and read their announcements.Today's presentation is a good starting point.
BUT you must do your own research, and make up your own mind whether this is a good time to enter,or not.
sorry Percy for asking inappropriate question and thank you for your suggestions.
Welcome misterx. Percy's advice is good and should always be adhered to - this is a place for ideas but you should always be able to back things up with your own research and thoughts.
As for your question, there is no right answer. I personally won't be buying at this level, but I have been a holder for a while. Having said that I don't plan on selling because I believe there is more growth to come. Pie funds bought lots yesterday (and already hold lots). It all depends on your situation.
I'd start by looking at where you think the company's growth is going to come from. Then learning a bit about the P/E ratio which is a good starting point for working out whether a company is good value at the current share price.
The reason for my post.
About 4 years ago a guy took his funds,which were invested in bonds and shares, away from his broker, and decided to invest them himself.
After reading Share Trader he decided he knew what he was doing.!
Big mistake.I don't know what % of his funds he lost.May have been 25% to 35% of his capital.He has since learnt a lot,but has still not recovered his losses.So on $100,000 invested he would have $70,000 today,while most Sharetraders would have doubled the $100,000 and have $200,000 today.ie 185% more.Big difference,and if you add another zero to the funds invested you can see I am taling very serious money.
So back to helping you.I use the following "free" sites;
www.stocknessmonster.com for my watch list.
www.4-traders.com for projections.Does not cover every company.Enter the company code ,then go to financials.
Yeah follow W Buffets 1st and 2nd Rules:)Quote:
Originally Posted by
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Good advise from percy and others ... and I guess I don't know either what is going to happen with TIL from here. Just some observations: The people running TIL have a history of creating start-ups and selling them afterwards, Sometimes they are successful (42 below), sometimes not so (MOA). No matter into which category you put TIL ... after a five fold share price rise the remaining fizz might be limited.
Just one other observation: the future growth potential of shares often seems to be negatively correlated with the noise on various sharetrader threads. People start making noises after a significant rise ... and at that stage the cream is obviously already gone.
If you think that this is a good industry (and actually - it might be), than I would make myself a list with the say 5 most important players in this industry (the latest TIL presentation even helps you to identify them) - and compare their fundamentals and their growth potential. If you than still think that TIL is the best player in the room (I don't, well - not at the current SP), than by all means - buy them, but remember to diversify.
Good comments Black Peter. However, I don't see the owners wanting to sell for a while yet. They are at the start of what could be a very exciting overseas expansion. If they are even mildly successful in the UK, US or Asia then the upside from here is enormous. Pie funds keep buying, and I imagine they have have a few conversations with the company and like what they hear.
There are always risks so of course it could end in tears. Still significant room for growth in Australia too. Taking the cautious "what if" approach is necessary, but without accepting some risk you don't stand to gain anything.
As I said I'm not a buyer at this level, but I am still bullish about the future prospects
I think we're in for an interesting finish for the week and month.
Pie funds clearly see further upside in the Sp at present. Nice steady climb of late just hope at some stage a trading update comes out to consolidate recent gains.
The figures used in the latest presentation are at the top end of previous guidance.
So any update should be because they are ahead of guidance.
I would guess Pie Funds are expecting them to be ahead of guidance.I think Pie Funds record of being "right on the money" with TIL will continue,so lets look forward to the next update.!!!
I am just going to throw this out there, is TIL the next A2M, (preceded by XRO and PEB)
What do these companies have in common:
- Rapid share price rises, followed by generally large collapses (although A2M is currently holding up better than the other two)
- Share price driven by hype and ever increasing expectations, which ultimately can't be meet (as reflected by a share price drop)
- All have fantastic, quality products and have been around 'for years'
Obviously A2M is in the dairy industry, TIL is more in retail/manufacturing, PEB is in Biotechnology and XRO is in technology (with the last two not yet making a profit), but they have all shared similar 'hype' stories, that ultimately have 'collapsed' to a more 'realistic' level.
I hope TIL (along with A2M, PEB and XRO) does well, always love a good kiwi story, but just be careful.
I think the short answer is no. Currently, TIL has a forward PE of about 20 (assuming upper end of guidance). The other companies you named can't even be valued using a PE as they aren't profitable/profitable enough.
TIL has cash flow. It even pays a dividend. So I think we are safe from any comparisons there. However, if growth stalls it'll fall, but it doesn't have too far to fall compared to the others due to its real cash in the door business
A2M, XRO, TIL and I suppose PEB are all special t_j and have some sort of 'unique. proposition behind them
XRO is beautiful accounting, TIL makes royalty beautiful, A2M helps make babies healthy and beautiful .... and I did day suppose PEB does something special
As such don't they deserve that hype and be valued as such
Believe the stories t-j, you believe the PEB story and I would throw it out there the A2M, XRO and TIL stories are more credible with good future prospects
True, but TIL also has far more non current liabilities than A2M, PEB and XRO, coupled with far less cash. Valuing by PE is one of several methods you could use to evaluate a share, for example Valuing by NTA makes TIL (4.6% of share price) look alot less compelling than XRO (10.1%), PEB (22.2%) and similar to A2M (3.2%) .
As they are already paying a dividend and don't have alot of cash on hand, I don't really know how they (and everyone else) expects them to keep up incredibly impressive sales growth
I would agree they are credible, and would even go as far as to say TIL is a 'safer bet'... but I am not sure if they (A2M, XRO and TIL) are more credible than PEB, as A2M, XRO and TIL have commercialized their products alot earlier than PEB, so they maybe more "credible" right now, but overtime potentially not... However, I would point out (to myself) that 'time is ticking' ... this year could be the year of PEB after all ;) (but lets not turn this into another PEB thread...!)
My concern with TIL is that like Pumpkin Patch and Moa, it's a consumer brand whose popularity may be short-lived. At least those other companies offer something with a tangible difference and are more difficult for a competitor to replicate so if they did take off, customers are less likely to switch. But home fragrances and beauty products? Dunno.
Call me old fashioned, but cash in the door wins hands down in my opinion.
TIL are funding their sales growth with that cash. They have stated that earnings will be subdued (but still double!) due to the extra money spent on pursuing overseas growth.
Yes - at any moment they could go out of favour. I think it's a bit to early in the phase for that, but it's a valid concern. Other valid concerns are XRO may not ever make any money, PEBs technology becomes obsolete before they make money, and a2 cows prove dangerous to human health.
I don't believe any of those things, I'm just saying nothing comes without risk. Especially when comparing 4 completely different companies
Looking at it very basically Til and a2m profitable, xro and peb both haemorrhaging cash. But comparing these 4 companies is not relevant as completely different industries/products/structures/growth/risks etc. From previous record I believe TIL has a robust growth path and the SP will move accordingly (with fluctuations as it is a publicly listed company after all)
I think TJ has a good point here ... and how do they say - "what goes up, must come down". Agree however with some of the other posters that PEB, XRO and ATM might not be the best comparison for this company.
Pumpkin Patch, I think would be a better company to compare them with. Consumables - and a product range people are happy to pay an extra dollar for just because it is in fashion.
If neighbours kids wear these great clothes, than our grandchildren need to wear them as well ... If the neighbours wife smells like roses ... well, you get the idea.
On the other hand (like Pumpkin Patch): no (or negligible) moat - i.e. the cost for competitors to get into this space are small (and actually many are already in there anyway); As Pumpkin Patch - they seemed to have found a temporary market niche in little NZ - and think now that the wide world out there is as empty and easy to conquer as NZ is.
I reckon the international expansion is likely to kill them ... and rather earlier than later. Zillions of successful fragrance companies out there - including many well established brands. Just didn't bother so far to take NZ.
So - not sure, how far up the rocket will shoot ... will they be still in fashion around next Christmas? However - I am sure, they won't stay in the stratosphere for ever. Sure, the rocket might still get a bit higher, but better watch the flight path and sell out before the rocket starts its descent. Once on the way down it might be difficult to find enough willing buyers.
Discl: not holding;
Kate Middleton, Duchess of Cambridge, disclosed that on a recent visit to the Hebrides she came across a pine extract that does wonders for her skin. Kate was heard to say 'out with the roséhip and in with the pine and my skin feels so good'
(Made up so don't ask for the link to this news - but highlights how fragile this market is)
Good comments BP. I agree that trilogy going out of fashion or not succeeding overseas are the two biggest risks.
They have done well in Australia, and are continuing to gain market share. They've got some big names raving about them overseas like Kate Middleton. That is pretty heavy hitting.
I also don't necessarily subscribe to the what goes up must come down theory (with reference specifically to the SP- not the company). With hype this is true, but TIL is trading on a forward PE of 20 which is not particularly inflated given its growth
Still - have a look at Pumpkin Patch. They made in their hay days truckloads full of money. Not sure about PE (too long ago - their "prime" was in 2006 / 2007), but I am sure that it was at that stage well below 20. They still made in 2010 (the earliest annual report I could find) an NPAT of more than $25m - at a revenue of something like $300m!
Just look where they are now. SP graph is very educational (or should I say sobering?):
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=...l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
But lets assume (for arguments sake) that they discovered the "holy grail" of a product: Producing cheap fragrances and selling them for lots of money = Big profits & huge growth.
What do you think is stopping other companies to come after them, try to snatch their heels and quickly erode their profits?
What do they have others don't? Any particular (and world wide protected) IP? A monopoly on growing rose hips? A secret recipe? A sales organisation with a secret X-factor?
NZ (and to a degree as well Australia) are isolated. Out of the international sight (too small and too far away), high transport cost to get there and quite stringent border controls (for goods as well as for people) - this makes it easier for locals to exploit local market niches. However - going outside this protected area is hard for them ... unless you have some unique advantage their competitors have not.
What advantage does TIL have?
I think you are over simplifying their business down to "cheap fragrances".
Tell me brand doesn't matter while looking at all the other designer companies out there. TIL are building a niche that is 100% natural, certified organic and carbon neutral. They sell that image and so far in our corner of the world people love it.
They have a foot in the door overseas which is showing promise albeit from a low base.
Yes, they could follow pumpkin patch. However at this point they are growing incredibly well. If things waver I will sell my investment. But currently I like the way things are looking.
I'm not a buyer at these levels because there is not much safety margin left, but I'm not a seller because the future is currently bright. When that changes then I'm not afraid to sell.
A competitive advantage is very important. But when a company is growing earnings like TIL along with being cheaply valued why sit on the sideline (I'm referring for when the SP was a lot lower). Don't fall in love with the company and be ready to exit should circumstances change
Hi,
The celebrity endorsements are from Kate M & Cara D, however the bulk of the revenue is still NZ/Australian origin (30 & 44% respectively), UK revenue accounts for 8%. I doubt that Kate Middleton publicly coming out and saying she no longer uses trilogy rosehip oil would actually happen (as really who would make such an announcement?!) in my view all that is likely to happen would be her moving on and recommending some other beauty product. Now, is this likely to see a huge shift of Australasian based consumers to the next 'fad', possibly a few, maybe a more UK based consumers, I’m not sure.
The one observation I have made about the fairer sex is that they often stick with a makeup/cosmetic regime that works for them, and if indeed trilogy can remain relevant in packaging, offerings (occasional gift bags with purchase, set deals, new natural ‘wonder’ ingredients etc) they should have no problem retaining those who use their products, and perhaps recruiting a few more.
Interestingly when doing a quick google search you can see the power of word of mouth for trilogy in the form of blogs, forums & reviews. I think this seems to be the best method of getting the word out and new customers purchasing the product.
Just a few links from the past couple months:
http://www.mayonews.ie/living/nurtur...astern-promise
http://www.vegetarianbeautyproducts....auty-products/
http://www.borntobuyblog.com/2015/12...ake-up-be.html
http://lenatalksbeauty.com/christmas...logy-goodness/
http://www.teeandw.com/trilogy-products-revew/
http://forum.femaledaily.com/showthr...ilogy-Skincare
I think that Trilogy's point of difference is being in the natural, environmentally friendly product offering in an industry that is clamoring to sharpen up as consumer preferences drift towards this. The below link demonstrates the way the industry is heading, with Obama banning/phasing out the use of micro-beads:
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/30/he...ns-microbeads/
Trilogy presenting in a global setting, at an environmental conference in Monaco a month or so back:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2015/12/prweb13132566.htm
I'm not suggesting at current prices it is a strong buy. But I still think that there is reasonable ‘bluesky’ attached to the current SP, and that prospects-wise and Trilogy’s positioning the industry seems to be in the right place at the right time. I certainly wouldn’t be investing in a profitable cosmetic manufacturer of chemical based or micro-bead product, that the vast quantity of supermarket and high tier manufacturers roll out. I still think that Trilogy could be ripe for acquisition as a bolt-on environmentally friendly division or defensive play for a larger producer.
As always, DYOR, in my opinion etc,.
Discl: happily holding since February 2015. :)
Cheers
250k parcel sitting on the bid @ $3.12! :)
Very interesting. Most large trades have been off market and by pie funds as far as I can tell? Good to see a big player interested
Sell depth almost non existent, people being forced to bid up to purchase shares at the moment.
Seems as though 250k bidder @$3.12 has disappeared.
Shaping to to be an interesting trading pattern today, will NZX serve them with a speeding ticket going by past few trading days.
No need following the recent Aussie presentation me thinks. Would be good to hear how trading over Xmas went for ecoya especially due to the seasonal nature.
Buying when everybody starts to queue up to get hold of a security is traditionally a great way to lose money. I am pretty sure we have all seen times like that with other stocks before ... and how does this normally end?
Yes, they still look great value if we apply the Graham's formula without questioning where past growth came from and where future growth might be coming from. However - PE based on their earnings over the last 5 years is nearly 700 - not such a flash return, isn't it?
If holding the shares I'd see the current push as a great opportunity to sell out at a great price, but hey - maybe this time it is all different.
All the best to share holders. Good luck!
I think your cynicism is a bit over done here. A share that you can rationalise as relatively reasonable value with good growth prospects does not need the "this time will be different" tag. I have asked where growth has and could come from, and that's why I invested when the forward PE was single figures. Yes, growth might stall. But there are no indications that is going to happen in the short term.
BP - a DCF valuation with non existent growth is over $3
Feed some growth numbers for the next few years and north of $4 is the answer - even $5 if or gets reasonably bullish
Maybe this PIE Funds are using my model
Also I think people are writing off how the CS company acquisition could add synergies to TIL existing distribution in nz. You also wonder if the existing product sourcing relationships for said brands might bring the company to attention of bigger overseas fragrance brands.
I think a good analogy is Kathmandu and puffer jackets, all the rage for a while, but look at them now. TIL's products are 'the thing to have/give' at the moment, but this may change and eventually suffer the same fate.
That said, they still have a lot of markets to 'become all the rage in' yet, so there's still plenty of growth ahead - make hay while the sun shines, just don't forget to stack it in the shed before it spoils. DYOR.
Yep and they have a much greater reach (Cs company distribution to 1950+ doors) much more than trilogy/ecoya doors combined. Noting Cs company has a three year earn out period so I can see why til in general may wait awhile before maximising these synergies.
Other successful cosmetics companies have managed to get by selling the same unchanged product (ie Chanel No5, first produced in 1919). Who's to say that consumers who start using trilogy rosehip oil (the product that accounts for the bulk of trilogy's revenue) won't continue as they see the benefits of doing so? There's a possibility that the transition towards natural products that produce equally as good results as chemicals could become the new norm.
I find it hard to see how TIL could be compared to Kathmandu, Pumpkin Patch and all these others. There is a significant difference in puffer jackets/clothes vs consumable cosmetics. Kathmandu saturate the market with discount puffer jackets of which a consumer purchases one. TIL sell cosmetics in an almost subscription like model, whereby the consumer will use and continue to purchase if the desired results are acheived. I understand the changing trends theory, but unlike jackets and technological products such as tvs & phones, some popular salves,balms & makeup have been around unchanged for 100s of years?
Trilogy accounts for 56% of revenue, with the acquisition of CS company I can only see this enhancing the distribution of Trilogy (as ecoya business is probably not going to see the same level of synergies through that distributor). Also with the growth of the goodness brand, this seems to be the area of growth the company is focussing on, whilst Ecoya still delivers increased sales, I personally think the upside is the Trilogy/goodness business segments.
When you review their most recent presentation, the bulk of their main update points also are directed at the cosmetic side:
Trilogy Highlights:
• Rosehip Oil growth in all markets.
• Rosehip Oil sourcing and impact assessment.
• Asia distributor conference.
• Investment in people, office move and international.
• Wholefoods now 414 doors and growing.
• New Product Development.
• Makeup Be Gone Cleansing Balm.
• Age Proof relaunch & CoQ10 Booster Oil.
• Age Proof Media campaign – NZ, Australia, Asia.
Ecoya Highlights:
Significant Channel growth in majors
and department stores in Australia
and New Zealand.
• New Brand Collateral.
• Loyalty program on Ecoya.com.
• Windows in John Lewis (London) and
David Jones (Sydney).
• Christmas brand campaign.
• Seasonal Product Development.
Hi winner, it might help if you give us some more of your working assumptions to support this statement.
Given that there is not a lot of analysis around for TIL ... what data do you put into your DCF? last years EPS was 7.4 cts/share. Even if we more than double that this year (due to the acquisitions) to 18 cents per share ... how do you get on this basis to a share price worth more than $3 without additional growth? What rate of return do you request for your model?
No cynicism at all. Just observing and coming to a logical conclusion. Lots of examples around in the past for companies where the SP was overshooting the fundamental values of the firm during a bullish growth phase. Some examples have been already mentioned on this thread. Given that you seem to feel that the same will not happen to TIL ... what is wrong with me stating that "this time it will be different"?
But hey - don't misunderstand me. I am not saying that TIL is a bad company or likely to suffer a terrible end. I wouldn't see any indications for that, yet. I just think that the SP started to get ahead of the inherent value of the company. These things happen - and markets are sometimes quite slow to move back to real value. There might be still lots of potential left for traders ... not so sure though at current SP about the companies potential for value investors.
Anyway - enjoy the ride while it lasts ...
Let's agree to disagree on the market potential etc and discuss valuation. The company is about to double earnings per share (some of that comes from the acquisition and some is offset by increased marketing spend).
At a forward PE of 20, (as it was before today), I can't see why you think it is so overvalued. Let's assume for a minute it will grow earnings again by another 20% next year and the year after. Do you still call it overvalued? Yes, there are other factors other than PE ratios, but let keep things simple.
I know your point is that sales will stop growing, but I'd like to understand your rationale for saying it's so overvalued.
Disc. Holder but not buyer at these levels
OK - lets discuss valuations. A PE of 20 without sustainable growth would be historically very expensive for a retailer. Just to take some examples ... I wouldn't buy WHS, KMD, HLG unless the PE is below 10 ... (discl: hold none of them at current, despite all of them much closer to a PE of 10);
This means we need to assume sustainable growth. Sure - a consistent growth rate of "only" 20% (actually - even 10%) would do the trick, but how many specialist retailers do you know who managed to do this? See?
Where are your growth assumptions coming from? NZ population increasing their use of fragrance by 20% per year? Buying other fragrance retailers? How many are still left they can buy cheap? How many countries worldwide without an established market? Give me some reasonable growth assumptions (and examples for comparable companies achieving that before) and than it should be easy to establish a value ...
Might be worth reading the latest preso BP
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/228900.pdf
Especially page 12 where it details trilogy's respective share of the natural skin care brands. It's quite clear trilogy is a major player in nz with 24% market share but in Aus it is 5th with 8% of market share. Clearly still plenty of room for growth both within the natural beauty segment both locally and internationally, it's my bet this market is growing strongly so if trilogy simply retains its market share EPS should rise strongly over the next few years.
like most here I would imagine they can't see any value in buying say a $50 french pear flavoured candle, but the other half and most of her girlfriends most certainly do which we must not forget.
Growing natural market, growing market share in Australia, any form of growth in other target markets. You say 20% isn't sustainable, but I think it certainly is for 2 years at least. Then you might be right, or it might keep going gangbusters. I will reassess my investment after every announcement and once growth slows to levels that no longer justify the SP I will sell. But while they are miles ahead of this rate I see no logic for penalising them at present and missing out on more gains
I have run a DCF valuation under 3 growth scenarios. Key to success is Trilogy revenue growth (how much and for how long).
The chart shows Trilogy (exc CS Co) revenues under the 3 scenarios, The Vlauation is notes on each line (the valuation has the impact of CS added in)
My $3.60 is probably the same as Paper Tigers $2.59 - he tends to use high discount rates than I do
He probably laughing his head off already - you all can join him if you want - I won't cry if you do
Thanks for sharing winner.
I think I'll grit my teeth and continue to hold through these not so overvalued times. A management upgrade before results is definitely on the cards too. I don't want to be on the sidelines for that. Recent presentations have hinted towards the top end of guidance so it's not unlikely
Hi winner, thanks for the graphs ... and I have to admit that the three assumed revenue growth paths you used for the model look reasonable to me (from conservative to optimistic). Still surprised though about the resulting share price estimates. You either must assume a rather low discounting rate, or an ongoing high margin (no concerns that competitors might want to take a piece of the cake, too?), or both.
Hi muss, actually - I don't think our views on TRI are too far away from each other. Maybe we talk more semantics. Personally I wouldn't call 20% growth over 2 years "sustainable growth". As well - you said that you wouldn't buy Trilogy at current price, just holding. Sure - why not, as long as the price keeps going up; The trick is just to get off board before everybody else wants to get out as well.
Anyway - all the best!
Used 10% discount rate because that about what most guru analysts use and I was attempting to see what value they would come up with seeing they the ones who ultimately influence prices.
Personally I would prefer to use 12% - the $3.74 is then $3.05
I think the market hasn't yet factored in the value of the CS Co acquisition. Too engrossed on skincare (and the candles they make no money from)
Hi BP, yes I think if we used each other's assumptions we would come to the same conclusions. I was struggling to understand given a certain (assumed) growth why you thought it was so grossly overvalued.
Good debate, differing opinions are why there is a market. Hopefully we've all learnt something!
Cheers
Its been good discussion both for and against. I guess at the end of day it all depends on your own research and investment objectives as we can never perfect entry and exit points barring few exceptions here and there.
Looks good today too with decent volume and strong bidding as some see further upside potential.
I am surprised the support volume looks strong
Equity funds might sneaks around
5:1 buy sell ratio and 37,000 buy at 3.26 could be an interesting end to the trading day.
And all on offer at $3.27 snapped up just like that...this getting really scary the way its played out!!!
yep crept up as the 10k parcel at $3.27 was taken out. Not enough volume sitting on the sell side, back to a 13c spread! A good days volume through at +$500k. At what stage would trilogy start entering NZX50 talks?, another 100m of marketcap/ $4+ SP?
Hmmm - share price has blown out to a ridiculous level if we use Paper Tigers valuation or still cheap as if we use my valuations.
I'll stick to my view ....do Pie Funds or whoever is buying do the sums the same way as me?
Still a way to go I reckon
(Sorry PT for bringing you into the discussion. Couldn't resist)
For pie funds to be buyers below $1, and still bullish enough to be buyers at $2.90 that's saying something. They could easily have sat on their (massive) holding, but they are still buying more.
Looks fully valued looking at this FY. Maybe punters see growth in this old dog after all. I see enough to keep me interested anyway.
I see it pie fund try to push up return % to cover up their loss in intueri
Otherwise the return from funds will look bad
Til is a very volatile stock. It is long term prospects is good. But going too far at the moment