See: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...light=Phaedrus
Printable View
things are not looking good looks like the cap index wants to test the triple bottom. i think its only a matter of time before the arse litterally falls out of this market bit like a direa big gush to the downside probably just before xmas ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mark-l...JBC5VP6DUULTE/
Looks like he reads your posts ...directly answering your bearish thoughts ...:p
I agree. There are so many well managed and positioned for growth NZ Companies out there. The fund managers are just waiting for the buy signal from the big boss.
Alot of the pull back in the index is more to do with the previous hype and overvalued asset classes.
Property stocks, fast food companies, outrageous PE ratios from our largest companys FPH, Atm etc. Throw in the odd mismanaged company like FBU.
Overlay with the current Market risk and we end up where we are now.
I don't think it's blood in the streets. I think it's more like the hospital filling up with overweight patients from feasting and drinking too much.
The good times will be back.
To be fair to equity managers ...I did not see here also any expert / Guru advising anyone about over valued or over hyped markets even when funds like KFL were trading at 22 cents PREMIUM to NAV ...
So I dont expect them to say otherwise now also when they are more close to bottom then TOP
I dont really understand what is bearish callers views ...Are they trying to pick bottoms ? Or they trying to warn of 20-40% drop ahead or they just trying to scare people not to INVEST at this time .
TBH what u think this market will go to honestly ...25% down ? If thats the case then its worth getting out or wait for further INVESTMENTS but if u not sure or just maybe 5-10% types then making bearish calls at current levels dont make sense for investments ...trading maybe ...I know U and Bull are traders but not all are traders ...some still actually do investment for next 5-10 years ahead ...to them will it make much difference if they get in now or not ...Mark Lister is a highly respectable market analyst and people including me have lot of faith and belief in his views ...he has pretty unbiased views and explains nicely in simple language pros and cons of investing at any particular time .
He is hardly unbiased.
I haven't said anything in regards direction of markets, I am just saying I tend to treat fund managers views on markets with a pinch of salt. Individual stocks is different and some analysts are very good at identifying value.
If you are constantly fully invested, how do you take advantage of market sell offs? Or you just don't I suppose.
But yep I understand most people are longer term investors so they have a different approach.
Expecting a bounce after Oct 2023 & another one mid-2024 when the rate cuts start - that's the extent of my timing the market skills.
Mostly fully invested on the NZSX50 via KS/Kernel etc.
Markets are overvalued. I looked at long term chart and the index is sitting on the top of the long-term chart. I would be happy if the index is position around the middle of the long-term chart. Intelligent investors will separate attractive individual stocks from the broader market. Time to avoid highly leveraged companies. Why do we go behind high debt companies if we can find out strong balance sheet companies.
US 10yr racing higher today , guess that flow to NZ today and also guessing more mtge hikes coming because of this :scared:
Better yet how do you meaningfully predict a market sell off in a statistically significant way?[/QUOTE]
Fundamentals & charts, the same way you pick the entry level into a stock.
Not saying I will always get it right of course, again a bit like entry level into a stock.
Post deleted.
nZX50 be below 11,000 next week
End of the longest bull market is fast approaching, though still it has legs.
its breaking down below the triple bottom :scared: covid lows here we come
Yes if it doesnt pull up soon we will be in bargain territory.
Attachment 14806
And Here is the Capital Index for comparison
Attachment 14807
In the market reports - ‘Even though the market has fallen sharply in recent months, analysis from brokers Forsyth Barr showed the 12-month forward weighted price-earnings ratio for the NZ market is currently 20.4 times, or 13% above the long-run average.’
Jeez a forward looking PE of 20.4 is pretty high