...yes, looks bullish with a Close smack on the 200-day MA *1103 with bulls keen to take the hurdle
-long > *1103 -stop 1082-
Kind Regards
Printable View
That should make you money. If I read the markets correctly, it will drop below 1103 today but will not breach 1082, almost as a last farewell to Bears, and a last chance to the Big Bulls to load up at the cheap. The world will finally have its long awaited Sunny days ...
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 28 May 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i47.tinypic.com/10fxnxf.jpg remains -below secondary support-
Trader Update -data point 28 May 2010:
...like often towards the end of the week and a US long weekend coming up, the SPX 500 taking a Lazy below *1103 with an intraday Low *1086 so far
...NYSE uptick buying power suggests continous buying at these lower levels and the downticks appear corrective
...once trading is back to normal early next week, targets above *1103 are the short term trendline resistance *1131 with the May 18 High *1148 having corrective appeal for a re-confirmation of the *1090 area before heading higher again
...institutional selling http://i45.tinypic.com/103y1yw.jpg -selling weakens-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
critical week. 1083 challenged Ananda77, could be breached ...
Hi Beacon,
...the market could be into the formation of a right shoulder topping at SPX 500 *1150 (January 2010 High) and to achieve the formation needs to trade above the 200-day MA
consequently -long above *1103 -stop 1082- to *1150 (my current outlook)
...a Close below *1083 does not make sense to me at this stage
OK Beacon,
...actual reality is now as of today:
-long *1083 -stop *1074 as the better option re: long position/stop spread
Kind Regards
1074 breached, 1065 in sight. The lower it goes, the bigger the rally that will ensue. Can't believe the amount of drama unfolding, especially as $1 Trillion has been put on the table to support a $4 Trillion Eurozone economy. $1.5 Trillion USD was enough to support a $15 Trillion US economy. Expecting 1300 before Xmas 2010 ...
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 1 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i50.tinypic.com/2s1sz2s.jpg remains -below secondary support-
Trader Update -data point 1 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded down to intraday Low *1078 and appears to be on its way now to try to challenge the 200-day MA level current *1105 albeit hesitant and unconvincing amidst market internals wearing bearish colours
...as a result, failure or more selling-off games in front of the 200-day MA at the Close or into tomorrows Open would introduce new risks for the market to push for a re-test of the May 25 Low *1041 and potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets
...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/15mmcuv.jpg trendline x-over -selling weakens-
long *1083 -stop *1074- successful / now neutral *1091
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 2 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i46.tinypic.com/15q7oef.jpg remains -below secondary support-
Trader Update -data point 2 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded down to intraday Low *1072 before reversing losses and appears to be on its way now to try to challenge the 200-day MA level current *1105 the second time around
...failing the 200-day MA again would introduce new risks for the market to push for a re-test of the May 25 Low *1041 and potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets
...on the flipside, a sustained push above *1105 would motivate the market to trade into the *1121/*1131area with the May 18 High *1148 coming into view
...institutional selling http://i49.tinypic.com/23vcfmv.jpg trendline x-over -selling increased with danger to jeopardize nascent down trend-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
...selling needs to trend down to be positive
Looking For A Fake 700,000 May Non-Farm Payroll Number
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/loo...payroll-number
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 3 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/nz0e1j.jpg -below secondary support- possibility for right shoulder
Trader Update -data point 3 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded into *1105 but so far failed to take the hurdle; the consequent drive down to the short term support *1090 level appears corrective however and the index is closing in again on the 200-day MA block for now
-the NYSE tick up to 15:00 pm:
-803.0 +186.0 -1426.0 -332.0 -1134.00 -901.0
...failing the 200-day MA again would introduce new risks for the market to push for a re-test of the May 25 Low *1041 and potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets
...on the flipside, a sustained push above *1105/*1113 would motivate the market to trade into the *1121/*1131area with the May 18 High *1148 coming into view
...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/14y07io.jpg trendline x-over -selling trending down-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Thanks. i see what you mean now.
Should HSI overtake 20,000 again today, it'll be easier for SPX to get over 200 MA. Or will it be the other way around...
Fake or real, non-farm employment is expected to increase substantially, due to census. keeping the powder dry, just in case ...
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 4 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/1jvsjd.jpg -below secondary support-
Trader Update -data point 4 June 2010:
...as expected after yesterdays NYSE tick warning, the SPX 500 miserably failed the 200-day MA again and crashed through the *1095/*1090/*1083 support, now heading straight towards the pivotal 1-yr lower channel current *1069/2-yr trendline support current *1063 zone
...a Close below the pivot zone, the market goes after the May 25 Low *1041 initially with potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down targets
...on the flipside, a successful defense of the pivot zone would set the market up for a summer rally into the *1121/*1131 area with the May 18 High *1148 coming into view
...institutional selling trendline x-over http://i46.tinypic.com/2940v0w.jpg -selling trending down-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Before the numbers came out there was a very bearish candle pattern on the hourly
Saw this one coming too Peat... about 6 hours before the Europe markets tanked, the base metal index took a dive during the early trading on Friday (half way during the Aussi market session)..similar to that of what happened 4 or 5 days later after the flash crash when the markets suddenly weakened. This GFMS index has been very accurate lately as an leading indicator giving advanced warnings for a falling market not so leading in the bottoming/recovery process department unfortunately.
...so.. it seems we are back to where we were a couple of weeks ago:(
bear flag forming imo
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 7 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/a421vk.jpg -below secondary support- no further evidence for H&S so far
Trader Update -data point 7 June 2010:,
...the SPX 500 failed its first attempt at the *1070 level intraday and so far barely holding on to the 2-yr trendline support current *1062 which indicates ongoing pressure to produce more downside
some buying interest however is apparent on the NYSE and with market breadth neutral there is scope for a bounce targeting the May 21... Congestion *1089 near term
...failing *1089 or a Close below *1062 today, the market goes after the May 25 Low *1041 initially with potential to reach down to the October 2009 Low *1020 initially with the *1000 psych level and the September Low *991 also coming into view as potential down target
...institutional selling http://i50.tinypic.com/snowi0.jpg -selling down trend challenged-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
S&P500 finished on its primary support line 1050 so not yet a bear market...I don't expect the 1050 support to hold as the S&P is following the rest of the worlds markets into bear territory.. so.... I expect more downside to come.
Us markets have for a while generally opened higher but closiing down - is a very bearish signal
Fear rules at the moment...
Belg - have you seen this chart of profit margins of S&P stocks over the years .... the red bit is analyst expectations .... ie to reflect S&P earnings of 80 to make the S&P500 dort of fairly valued and all that
Intersting to note that a fair chunk of the last few years earnings (at record profit margins) have been written off (non cash of course)
Capitulation some time off I fear Belg
Its here but don't read it Belg ... far too depressing for you
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100607.htm
...the SPX 500 so far respected the May 20 Low and appears to be in for a bounce with the June 7 High *1071 as an initial target; potential to reach higher to May 21 Congestion... *1089
..room for plenty of caution as internals signal 'selling into strength, indicating a break of the *1041 level soonish if the bounce back fails below the *1071/*1089 level
Kind Regards
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 9 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i48.tinypic.com/2ng67fb.jpg -below secondary support- large expanding wedge formation start January 2010 developing?-
Trader Update -data point 9 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 extended its bounce from the June 8 Low *1042 to an intraday High *1078 backed by reasonable positive market breadth and apparent continuous buying tick pressure
...selling brought the index back again towards the May 25 Low *1040 pivotal support to a Close *1056
...trading above *1040 leaves the play open for the bulls to drive the index towards another challenge of the 200-day MA current *1107
...failing the May 25 Low *1041 and the index is in deep bear territory with potential to reach down to
-the October 2009 Low *1020 initially
-the *1000 psych level
-the September Low *991
...institutional selling http://i49.tinypic.com/wkk655.jpg -selling down trend resuming but remains challenged-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
just keeps on getting swatted back ....
it may find support again but those turn downs seem to have quite a bit of venom in them so i wouldnt count on it -
SPX 500 Close below *1040 -point of no return for the bulls-
Kind Regards
Ah, whittaker ...
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 10 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i45.tinypic.com/1znvoep.jpg -below secondary support/trending down - large expanding wedge formation start January 2010 developing?-
Trader Update -data point 10 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 reversed course and gapped up at the Open into the May 21...*1089 Congestion resistance zone to intraday *1083 backed by surprisingly bullish daily market internals
the market so far appears set to follow through higher towards the Close to challenge *1089 but failing *1089 again should trigger an immediate sell-off that would be the overture to finally take the May 25 Low *1041 out
...in deep bear territory potential down targets are
-the October 2009 Low *1020 initially
-the *1000 psych level
-the September Low *991
...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/2el9xuc.jpg -selling trend sideways-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
SPX 500 Hedge: http://i50.tinypic.com/2qvz7mc.jpg
10 % portfolio protection -May 27 level *1064- stop *1037; down from 50 % -April 29 level *1210-
Kind Regards
...SPX 500 *1089/*1092 pivotal test ahead:
-fail > *1040 eats dirt
-above *1092 > *1040 bottom confirmed and a summer rally starts
...todays internals are bearish with sustantial selling NYSE Tick -23.0 -1473.0 -1060.0 -495.0 -983.0 (so far)
Kind Regards
yeh the speech was given at the Institute of International Finance, Vienna, Austria, June 10, 2010
I'm pretty free market oriented but I totally agree with him re the CDS's , as an insurance product someone should have an insurable interest. Its a basic insurance concept.
I love how he ridicules the EMH. Looking forward to his speech on the Euro in a couple of weeks
I couldnt find the full speech on his website so I've attached it as a text file here (I got it in an email by being a subscriber from his website)
...the SPX 500 clearly above *1092 so far and a Close above that level would confirm *1042 as a medium term floor
...next likely upside target May 28 High *1107 and June 8 High *1108 area before a run to challenge current *1122
Kind Regards
potential shooting star forming though
...the Nasdaq closed above the 200-day MA and the Russell 2000 trades well above it (bullish)...the SPX 500 likely to follow with another attempt of an upside break...but to be sure, the SPX 500 needs to clear now *1100 and in a hurry
Kind Regards
...the SPX 500 shrugged off yesterdays shallow sell-off and subsequently cleared the *1100 hurdle today confirming the May 25 Low as the medium term Low;
as institutional selling remains down trending and institutions are on the verge of accumulation, the immediate upside attraction features current *1121 with expectations that this level will be cleared towards the weekend or early next week
...trading above *1121 opens the index up for further upside with:
-the May 18 High *1149 (just below the January 2010 High) as a medium term target before a possible short term corrective drive would spanner the index on its way up towards the April 22 High *1220
the current downside for the advancing SPX 500 is the lack of liquidity flowing into the market
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
...basically, after today, the index may want
-to confirm the *1100/*1105 level
-then take out *1121 and
-above that level make its way towards the January High *1150 from where a larger corrective drive would start
...if there is any earnings- or GDP disappointment -not meeting high expectations- *1040 will be taken out
Kind Regards
...the SPX 500 index confirmed the *1100/*1105 level and finished the day closing higher again with the futures staying alive above *1108; institutions continued -selling less- but are not yet in an accumulative up-trend
for the last three days, market internals displayed a hefty negative divergence against the SPX 500 index which signals a continuous cautious approach when playing this market
... Friday is quadruble witching option day with call/put clusters accumulating around the *1110/*1112 level which makes a short trade from todays Close a viable intraday strategy
however, it is likely that this superflous rally will continue early next week taking out the *1121 level and heading higher to challenge the 50-day MA current *1144 and the May 18 High *1149 in the next 1-2 weeks
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 21 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 gapped up in a first attempt to the April/June Break *1131 and promptly reversed lower
...continuous negative divergences in internals over the last week highlighted underlying weakness in the current advance
furthermore, short term price momentum has reached a stage now from where further slippage down to a minimum *1107 support is likley with potential to reach down as far as the *1077/*1090 Congestion
...a successful defense in that area will motivate the market into a multi-week rally with the current *1180 resistance pointing to limiting upside potential
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 22 June 2010:
...basically nothing new to add after todays trading; a Close above *1105 is needed to prevent further slippage towards the current *1078/*1090 congestion
Trader Update -data point 23 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded into the *1077/*1090 Congestion and down-price momentum appears to be stabilizing with internals remaining mixed at best
instituional selling is at an alert point from where the current downtrend could reverse but liquidity inflows into markets are making higher lows and higher highs while remaining in contraction territory
...as a consequence, it appears the market is getting set for a move to the upside but remains vulnarable for a test of the lower end of the Congestion range current *1075
...a successful defense in that area will motivate the market into a multi-week rally with the current *1180 resistance pointing to limiting upside potential
Trade: long *1087 -stop *1077- (on way up from *1075* test)
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Hi beacon,
...the only thing to add to that after todays trading:
Trader Update -data point 24 June 2010:
Trade: long *1076 -stop *1065- for convinced bulls if there are any left out there; keep 'protective shorts' until the market clears *1089 on a Close basis
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 26 June 2010-
...without analyzing so far and just going by looking at the trading, today likely to be the 'drought breaker' to the *1180 SPX 500 minimum upside target;
-the day before a weekend often does have funny Closes-
Kind Regards
...market internals (up-tick buying - breadth - trin) positive divergent on NYSE Friday trading indicating potential reversal to upside above SPX 500 *1070
Kind Regards
G20 solidarity could prove pivotal...
Expecting resumption of uptrend too Ananda ...
They got in the soup because of the mayhem caused in 2008 crash...
Precisely the reason why they will not allow bears an encore in the market. And till last week, the bearish sentiment has been playing havoc again. Manipulation or not, the big fish waiting to get on board for a rally may have left it too late ...
Not sure about Monday, as 450 bn EU loans need to be refinanced this week. The bosses might have a vested interest in keeping volatility in the interim till Thursday to lock in lower debt rates. This will also provide the big fish to come in at lower priced equity without seeming like the market's saying "Up Yours" to G20. Expecting a dip followed by a higher end to the week...
...actually beacon, am not totally up-trendy and expect institutions:
-to drive the SPX 500 towards *1220 by keeping their selling to a level that allows the broad market to support the up-move
-near *1170/*1180 (+) selling into strength increases and the market starts to descent taking out *1040 on its way towards the *900 mark
-around the *900 mark, institutions start to accumulate heavily and CB's start new liquidity programs
because institutional investors are still net short equities at present
...on the flipside, if *1070 eats dirt shortly, braze for an imminent dive towards the *900-level
...of course these are just ideas floating around in cyber space but originated in the minds of astute international investment gurus and experienced index traders
Trade: long *1076 -stop *1066- keep 'protective shorts' until *1089 is taken out on a Close basis
...although volume indicates ONLY the spike in the Russell 2000 Friday is remarkable:
Kind Regards
For you belg, make of this what you will (Source Bloomberg, link below) ....
U.S. stock prices are mirroring government bond yields more than ever, a signal to bulls that shares may be poised to rally. Rising correlations show investors are ignoring relative values among industries and assets and reacting to day-to-day signals on the economy, convinced Europe’s debt crisis will spur the second global contraction in three years.
The S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury rates posted a correlation coefficient of 0.8412 in the 60 trading days through June 16, showing stock prices and bond yields were the most linked in Bloomberg data going back to 1962. The last time the relationship was almost this strong during an economic expansion was at the beginning of the 2002 to 2007 bull market, when the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities doubled.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...d=aVk2ZMgNS5Z0
And more food for thought here:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...d=aA.3NTNwQyLo
did you see this :
Today's session was a bit unusual in that it incorporated the annual changes to Russell Investments'NYSE.
benchmarks, which include the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indexes. According to a Bloomberg story,
"Today's Russell rebalance is one of the largest in the past few years." Russell estimates that $3.9 trillion is
benchmarked to its U.S. stock indexes and investors that mimic the performance of these indexes must buy
and sell shares to match Russell's adjustments. None of these changes alter the market's trend or overall
wave structure, but they resulted in a huge upward spike in volume to 2.51 billion shares traded on the
Thank You, peat
Trader Update -data point 28 June 2010:
...the SPX 500 so far holding above June 25 Low *1068 but provides no real sense of direction as the index appears to be developing an inside day
...after Fridays trading, institutional selling remais at an alert point from where the current downtrend could reverse, liquidity inflows into markets remain in contraction territory, and market internals are neutral today
...the index appears to be on 'hold and wait' awaiting the ADP job report Wednesday for further directional clues; again, the *1070 level appears pivotal and holding through to Wednesday would provide a solid base for the start of a multi-week rally
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
... unless spooked by non-farm Payrolls on Friday. Reporting season starts next week too ...
But thanks Ananda, your insight confirms my analysis. That is very comforting to me in the prevailing market indecisiveness (or Machiavellian manipulation??, i don't care what it is called).
The worry is that if 1000 is breached, the bulls (or have been bulls) will metamorphose into bears turning future market slips into landslides. Would that matter to big fish? I think it will.
Will global Government allow the market to breach this last line in sand. I suspect they won't. But if it happens and if they do, what then? To be or not to be ...
Trader Update -data point 29 June 2010:
...after trading below the pivotal *1070 level to take out the June 25 Low, the SPX 500 dived lower and currently challenges the June 8 Low *1042
...a closing violation of *1042 or the May Low *1041 would set the next down targets:
-Nov 2009 Low *1029
-Oct 2009 Low *1020* at a minimum
-Sept 4 2009 Support *1000
-scope to reach down to Aug 2009 Low *978 before stabilizing
...on the flipside, holding above *1041/*1042 would signal the market is prepared to do base building that would result in a near term floor
...watch out for the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA, while the 200-day MA is sinking (Rosenberg calls it the 'death cross' and he expects the event within the next two weeks)
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
I hate it when the Permabears get their day in the sunshine....always the same boring predictable behaviour when their sun comes out......the chorus of deafening noise of .."We could see it happening, we told you so "...:mad ;::p
Disclosure. This post is sharing my personal viewpoint only.
1...For holders of ASX and NZX shares....note that the S&P 500 is just entering the bear market stage from a 16 month cyclic bull market. The S&P500 is trailing the Shanghai ASX and NZX markets which have already entered into a Bear market and for a while now. (see Goldilocks and the 3 bears thread).
Simple Head & Shoulder pattern completely formed to breakout stage.
from Thomas Bulkowsky Encyclopedia of Chart patterns 2nd edition.
Once the breakout has happened the failure rate of the index dropping less than 5% is only 4% :(
50% chance the share will rise to near that 1050 break out line (PULL BACK) giving a person a second chance to sell out ...but beware the pull back may keep going up ending the decline.
Average drop from breakout line 20% with pullback (840)
Average drop from breakout line 24% without pullback (798)
43% chance the ultimate bottom happens within the next 28 days
28% chance the ultimate bottom happens after 70 days
Average duration to ultimate bottom is about 2 months (60 days)
55% chance of meeting the target price.
The good news :) the average rise after the ultimate bottom is +51% in a bull market +45% in bear market ...so if you can find the bottom and enter huge rewards may wait for you:D
Chart note the predicted red dotted line is not to scale. It has a pullback feature which has a 50% chance of happening.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...0029062010.png
hoop are you Chinese?
以及所有那些8 的你我想知道
I have reported that post to the ST Moderator. We don't want that sort of talk here. Disgusting.
...the SPX 500 did not violate *1042/*1041 on a Close basis today but chances are very slim for a noticable advance before the ADP numbers (8:15 US Eastern) or possibly before the Friday Initial Claim numbers and the forecast for both TILT to a negative result
...in the meantime, the index could just drift lower for lack of anything else and IF the numbers come in positive (surprise, surprise), could jolt higher to start another advance
...on the flipside, the index signals base-building if it just keeps hugging the flatline with *1041/*1042 as the low point till Friday and a Trade: long *1041 -stop *1034- would be a low risk position just before the release of the numbers
Kind Regards
OMG...our Chinese sucks....:p:p:p:p
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 30 June 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i49.tinypic.com/2nvziq.jpg -at wedge support level-
Trader Update -data point 30 June 2010:
…institutional activity is at a critical level as the basic bias tends to negative at support level
intraday action looks tedious as upticks appear gruntless and internals remain negative but so far, the SPX manages to stay alive above May Low *1041 -just-
...as a consequence risk to the downside remains high with the index trading below current *1053/*1056 and combined with a closing violation of *1042 or the May Low *1041 would set the next down targets:
-Nov 2009 Low *1029
-Oct 2009 low *1020*at a minimum
-scope to reach down to Aug 2009 Low *978 before stabilizing
...on the flipside, holding above *1041/*1042 would signal the market is prepared to do base building that would result in a near term floor
...institutional selling http://i48.tinypic.com/207w6ya.jpg -selling reversed to upside-
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
hmmm will the S + P close under 1040? Looking more than possible right now...
for all those who don't know... the Chinese believe 8 to be a lucky number
last time S&P stopped at 666
The number 6 (六, Pinyin: liù) in Mandarin is pronounced the same as "lee-oh" (澑, Pinyin: liù) and similar to "fluid" (流, Pinyin: liú) and is therefore considered good for business. The number 6 also represents happiness. In Cantonese, this number is a homophone for blessings (祿 Lok)
8
The word for "eight" (八 Pinyin: bā) sounds similar to the word which means "prosper" or "wealth" (发 – short for "发财", Pinyin: fā). In regional dialects the words for "eight" and "fortune" are also similar
Trader Update -data point 1 July 2010:
…institutional selling continued higher and the institutional index core holding closed below support but the institutional 'shift in direction' has reached now extreme low levels indicating potential for a short covering rally near term
…intraday so far, the SPX bounced off from the session Low *1011 just ahead of major support levels:
-*1000 psych barrier
-*992 September 2009 Low
-*988 August 6 Low
although market internals remain weak and risks remain high for another probe lower below *1011, the support trio will likely hold as a short to medium term floor
…a successful defense in the *988/*1000 range would set the tone for a rebound back into the *1120/*1130 Congestion
'protective shorts' to *1049 on a Close basis
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 5 July 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded up to the intraday High *1033 just below the June 29 Low *1035 and immediately got sold off to intraday Low *1016 to a Close *1023
although it is difficult to comment on the SPX 500 Friday Trading Action and Close in terms of potential future price action because of the 4th July public holiday in the US, some interesting positive technical divergences appear in the US market at present:
-Institutional Index Core Holding below primary and secondary support trending down but
-the P&F to July 2010 testing a double support
-Institutional selling up-trending but
-the institutional 'shift in direction' at extremely low level with potential to turn up
-Long Term trend Fed/Foreign liquidity inflows in contraction territory but near -100% level
-Positive VIX.DVol to NYSE divergence end of Thursday July 1 trading
...the Friday jobs report was anything but positive... but the market reaction -selling the index *1033 off- could have been subject to the 4th July extended weekend
if the market ignores the bad employment data on Tuesday, a potential rally of the SPX 500 support trio into the *1120/*1130 Congestion is expected
if the positive divergences in the market do not come into play -braze for a melt down-
the SPX 500 hedge remains 'protective short' to *1049 on a Close basis
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 6 July 2010:
...as expected, the SPX 500 reversed sharply to intraday High *1043 after setting a new Low *1007 in pre-market Open trading
in the meantime, the index trades around the short term lower channel support current *1022 in what appears to be a shallow pull-back
the impulsive nature of todays rebound however suggests that the index will continue its advance after the congestive *1022/*1030 range is confirmed to head back up into the *1120/*1130 range at a minimum
...trading past the June 30 High *1048 confirms this view and the rally should accelerate above that level
the SPX 500 hedge remains 'protective short' to *1049 on a Close basis
Long Term: http://i41.tinypic.com/33mmkxe.jpg
Kind Regards
Another day of staving off the slide towards a bear market.
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 7 July 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding P&F http://i32.tinypic.com/4zwao0.jpg -paramount for index to hold support-
Trader Update -data point 7 July 2010:
...accompanied by bullish market internals, the SPX 500 rallies up from intraday Low *1029 to trade at *1051 so far, but needs to continue to show strength into a Close above *1048
...unfortunately, the bullish picture remains tainted by a Russell 2000 which does not share the bullish enthusiam in the larger indexes
...as a consequence, risks remain for the SPX 500 to the downside below a Close of the June 30 Low *1048
...institutional selling http://i30.tinypic.com/2j4adxe.jpg -up-trend with positive divergence-
Long Term: http://i30.tinypic.com/33bzfgk.jpg
Kind Regards
Dows up over 200 points today. Should equate to a good day down here.
Once they got through 180 pts, that 10000 mark had a big red target on it! Will they sell it into the close?
...with the SPX 500 continuous show of strength into the Close -although the Russell 2000 still sits below Yesterdays Close- the next potential upside targets for the SPX 500:
-June 25 congestion *1068/*1083
-3-month upper channel resistance *1097
Kind Regards
We had a great night with DJIA
blog notes from Short Term Ideas for scalpers/day traders who can work with the action.
DJIA. ........remaining potential for a test towards the broken support / Chikou 9908-10024 .......and test of H1 Kumo. RESULT - Maximum +280 points
Refer to my 30th June 2010 post #522 and chart
Chart update.
Since there is now an index rise occurring, therefore that 50% chance of a drop without a pullback is gone.
This makes the chances of a recovering rally double from 4% to 8% (Bulkowski)...although its positive news, 8% is still not good odds...and for the Bulkowski believers this would provide a second chance to sell out.
Pullbacks are dangerous as they can sometimes break back through key supports, enticing the unwary to re-enter ..then suddenly drop.
A continuing rally past 1120 would make me a little more optimistic that it would be a genuine rally....not another sucker rally type including the pullback behavioural feature.
Chart note the predicted red dotted line is not to scale.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...29062010-1.png
...yes Hoop, you are right, unless the *1120/*1130 level eats dirt
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 8 July 2010:
...the SPX 500 traded into the lower range of the June 25 *1068/*1083 congestion to intraday High *1071 initially but profit taking has taken the index back into the *1060 range so far; price action amidst mixed market internals suggests potential for a test of yesterdays break-out range *1048/*1053
...it is expected that the break-out range will act as a near term floor from where follow-through gains into the upper level of the June 25 congestion *1083 are likely
...the view above *1083 includes the 3-month upper channel resistance current *1095 and the June 23 High *1101 targets
Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/2j1o2lt.jpg
Kind Regards
Good News :).. the hammer is marking the bottom for now and is doing it usual gap movements the other way now....but ...it has to move a lot higher to get me excited :sleep::sleep:.
Bad News :(... Theory has it that the S&P500 uptick can not be sustained with T10 looking like a continuing ski slope
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...ryNotes1yr.png
Trader Update -data point 9 July 2010:
...so far, the SPX 500 flatlining just below the June 23 High *1084 with market internals remaining constructive intraday ahead of corporate earnings starting Monday
earnings forecats consensus: meet or above expectations with super careful guidance
...potential still exists for a brief test of the June 7 break-out range *1048/*1053 for lack of anything else, but it is expected, the break-out range will act as a near term floor from where follow-through gains into the upper level of the June 25 congestion *1083 are likely
...the view above *1083 includes the 3-month upper channel resistance current *1095 and the June 23 High *1101 targets
Long Term: http://i25.tinypic.com/303bl8h.jpg
Kind Regards
...the SPX 500 closed at Fridays session High moving closer to short term resistance *1084; despite the light flows. the strong Close indicates readiness in the market to brake above *1084 to challenge the Jun 23 High *1100 at a minimum; potential to reach out toward the Jun 21 High *1131 in the week ahead
...under any circumstances, the June 29 Low *1035 acts as the pivotal bull/bear divide
Kind Regards
www.stocktiming.com: -data point 12 July 2009-
...Institutional Core Holding http://i29.tinypic.com/2yvtq38.jpg -above support and rising but still in a down trend technically-
Trader Update -data point 12 July 2010:
...the SPX 500 opened higher *1081 but so far failed to leave the June 25 Congestion *1068/*1084 and the index remains trading at unchanged levels
...institutional acyivity points to an improving short term bullish outlook but todays internals are dangerously divergent, leaning heavily to the bearish side -a familiar picture of uncertainty in which the market lulls around in a waiting position-
...expect a break above *1084 for a challenge of the Jun 23 High *1100 at a minimum; potential to reach out toward the Jun 21 High *1131 in the week ahead
...under any circumstances, the June 29 Low *1035 acts as the pivotal bull/bear divide
...institutional selling http://i30.tinypic.com/30ngop3.jpg -down trend
Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/350phmq.jpg
Kind Regards
Good news for the US markets.
Reuters
NEW YORK – Alcoa Inc, the largest US aluminum producer, posted a stronger-than-expected second-quarter profit on Monday and raised its estimate for global aluminum consumption, sending its shares up three per cent.
The company, whose results are often viewed as a bellwether of the US economy, cited strength in several industrial sectors and raised its estimate for aluminum consumption this year, even as metal prices have been falling recently.
Trader Update -data point 13 July 2010:
...in a broad based rally, the SPX 500 ticked higher after the index moved out of the June 25 Congestion *1068/*1084 and further upside is likely
...targets above the June 25 Peak *1084 features the Jun 23 High *1100 at a minimum; potential to reach out to the Jun 21 High *1131 towards the end of the week but
-the May 28 High *1107
-the June 4 High/June 21 Low *1108
levels will remind the bears strongly, they are loosing their grip in the market and above the June 21 High *1131, its 'Game Over' for the bears
...initial support: the *1058/*1068 zone
Long Term: http://i25.tinypic.com/6y38cg.jpg
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 14 July 2010:
...the SPX 500 down to intraday *1087 subject to mild profit taking but holding above June 25 *1084 break-out level so far; above *1084, taking out the June 23 *1100 is on the cards
...targets above the Jun 23 High *1100 feature the May 28 High *1107, the June 4 High *1108, the June 19 High *1119 but ultimately its the June 21 High *1131 that is 'Game Over' for the bears
...however, near term overbought conditions indicate risks of a substantial corrective down move are increasing above the *1100 level
...initial support: short term *1090 then the *1058/*1068 zone
Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg
Kind Regards
sorry Belgarion, should read near term overbought
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 15 July 2010:
...the SPX 500 rejected to jump the *1100 barrier and profit taking took the index down to intraday *1081 below the June 25 *1084 break-out level so far
although the index appears to have stabilized at *1080 further slippage to test the July 8 *1058/*1068 zone is possible
...a successful defense of the support zone would motivate the market to start another leg up with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets
Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg
Kind Regards
...the SPX 500 is at a crossroad and at this stage can go either way
-75% of the index components already in an up-trend
-the VIX sloping up but on not enough strength
-liquidity remains stuck halfway in the contraction zone
-institutions selling less but still not accumulating to give the market final direction
...this bull/bear fight remains undecided at present up to *1131, but a short term indication for further market direction would be to clear the *1100 barrier, otherwise the market is inclined to test the July 8 *1058/*1068 support zone
-position accordingly-
Kind Regards
Trader Update -data point 16 July 2010:
...the market did not even bother -to jump the *1100 barrier and stoned the SPX 500 back smack into the upper end of the July 8 *1058/*1068 zone to intraday *1069 so far
after todays action, the overbought condition on the 3-month daily trading set-up has started to ease but remains overextended
as a consequence, the curent set-back is expected to extend down to *1058 (possibly as far down as the *1050 psych barrier) before a more bullish bias will resume IF the support zone is successfully defended
...a successful defense of the support zone would motivate the market to start another leg up with the June 19 High *1119 and potentially, the June 21 High *1131 as targets
...look for a bullish trade above *1070 – target *1130 – stop *1047
Long Term: http://i26.tinypic.com/s68395.jpg
Kind Regards
Belg thinks this Hussman guy is an idiot but I thought this weeks newsletter was very good ... esp ifrom a FA man who believes that charts, ie tecnical traders, are what is currently holding the S&P at current levels ....before the inevitiable collapse
Misallocating Resources
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy
Perhaps the best way to begin this week's comment is to note that in decades of market analysis, I can't remember a time that I've heard many analysts quoting some support or resistance level as being "critical" for the market Some are eyeing the 1040 "neckline" on the S&P 500 "head-and-shoulders" formation. Others are eyeing the downward trendline that connects the April and June peaks for the index. Still others point to the "death cross" between the 50-day and the 200-day moving average, near the 1100 level, as being crucial. Even Richard Russell - who deserves more respect than most - has put the full weight of his analysis, over the near term anyway, on whether or not the Dow Transportation average remains above the closing level of 3792.89. The object of discussion has increasingly turned to the implications of this particular chart formation or that, as if some magic number or another absolves investors from having to think about the big picture.
All of this suggests that this is a "rent, not own" market being driven by technical traders who uniformly and somewhat predictably pile on to the sell side or the buy side when particular levels are hit. Last week, we observed the obligatory rally to prior support, closed a "gap" in the S&P 500 chart from a couple of weeks ago, and kissed the 20-day moving average. Based on this sort of "critical level" chatter, a move above the 1100 level could trigger a powerful but short-lived burst of short-covering on the relief of the "death cross", while a move below 1040, and particularly a break in the Transports below 3792.89, would most probably cause all hell to break loose. Simply put, over the very short term, market fluctuations are likely to be driven by masses of technical traders, nearly all acting on precisely the same signals.
The key issue here is the sustainability of these moves. To the extent that an upside breakout is accompanied by a substantial relief in near-term economic concerns (e.g. a move in the ECRI Weekly Leading Index growth rate back to positive territory, or three to four weeks of plunging new claims for unemployment), one might anticipate a positive follow-through over the intermediate term. In contrast, a downside breakout accompanied by further deterioration in reliable economic indicators or poor corporate guidance would prompt a more sustained period of deterioration. Lacking such confirmation from "real" indicators of economic and corporate activity, the immediate response of breakouts or breakdowns is likely to be confined to a short burst of concerted selling or short-covering.
On a valuation basis, the S&P 500 remains about 40% above historical norms on the basis of normalized earnings. The disparity between our valuation assessment and the putative undervaluation being touted by Wall Street analysts is so great that a few remarks are in order. First, virtually every assessment that "stocks are cheap" here is based on the ratio of the S&P 500 to year-ahead operating earnings estimates, and often comes with a comparison of the resulting "earnings yield" with the depressed 10-year Treasury yield. What's fascinating about this is that this is the same basis on which analysts deemed stocks to be about 40% undervalued just prior to the 2007 top, following which the market plunged by more than half. There's a great deal of analysis regarding forward operating earnings that I published in 2007, but probably the most comprehensive piece was Long Term Evidence on the Fed Model and Forward Operating P/E Ratios from August 20, 2007.
To properly understand the price-to-forward operating earnings ratio, you have to recognize that operating earnings exclude a whole host of charges - what some observers correctly call "recurring non-recurring" charges. These include large and often quite regular losses that the companies deem, often on the thinnest basis, to be detached from their core business - even if the losses are directly related to their core business. Items like enormous asset writeoffs come to mind. Moreover, the "forward" means that these are year-ahead analyst estimates, which are typically substantially higher than trailing 12-month reported earnings.
Think of it this way. Suppose your poodle is 40% overweight. Someone sells you a scale where every pound shown on the dial represents 1.4 pounds of actual weight. Guess what? Your poodle will step on that scale, and the dial will pleasantly report that your dog is at its ideal weight. That may be comforting if you don't like to face reality, but the truth is, you've still got one sick puppy.
When you hear analysts say that the historical average P/E ratio is about 15, you have to recognize that this is the normal P/E based on trailing 12-month earnings after subtracting all writeoffs and other charges. Forward operating earnings are invariably much higher, and it turns out that the comparable historical norm, as I discuss in that 2007 piece, is only about 12. If you exclude the late 1990's bubble valuations, you get a historical norm closer to 11.5. The 1982 and 1974 market lows occurred at about 6 times estimated forward operating earnings.
A final observation is crucial. Current forward operating earnings estimates assume profit margins for the S&P 500 companies that are nearly 50% above their long-term historical norms. While we did observe such profit margins for a brief shining moment in 2007, profit margins are extraordinarily cyclical. Investors will walk themselves over a cliff if they price stocks as if profit margins, going forward, will be dramatically and sustainably higher than U.S. companies achieved in all of market history.
From hussmanfunds.com
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16th July Update
Today's sudden drop is a typical completed pullback feature from a broken-out completed H&S formation..... and also... an end to a lower high rally ....the sucker type, a typical feature of a bear market. I think it is appropriate to highlight part of my previous post in red.
Therefore warning bells should be ringing loud and clear..
I think its beyond doubt now that the S&P500 is a bear market ..
Wisdom says ..bears do disappoint, bears can't count, bears have irrational and nasty tempers and capitulation events can occur before the bear trend ends. Statistics show (Bulkowski) that following the ending of an identified broken-out H&S formation pull back a sudden drop takes place....followed by an extremely strong bounce which can end the bear trend. Usually the sudden drop is severe and should be avoided.
Refer to my 30th June 2010 post #522 and chart for those details.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...29062010-2.png