If interest rates are reduced we will see 0.90 . Dairy price and inflation figures also contributing.
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If interest rates are reduced we will see 0.90 . Dairy price and inflation figures also contributing.
Ynot..The H&S pattern is the most reliable of all the chart patterns, so basically yes ,,,the predictability is high..
First of all the NZ$VA$ H&S pattern is still forming..It has to be completely formed (established) before one can stat assessing the probabilities of an outcome..... The H&S pattern is established when it reaches its already formed neckline again..So the NZ$ has to fall to its neckline which is about 0.86 atm.
The predictability is very high if NZ$ breaks its neckline (H&S pattern established) it has only a 4% failure rate of not falling 5% below the neckline line break..There's a 54% failure rate at the -20% (Bulkowski)...so as you can see with the chart below if there is a neckline line break at say 0.86c then there is a 46% chance that the price will exceed below 0.69c.
see http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html#HST0
As Winner rightly points out the currency is a reflection of the economic health of its country, so a fall to < 0.69 would indicate some sort of economic collapse that could occur to a much lesser degree in Australia..
If one assumes that the currency will not go lower than 0.86 by June then the same assumption would apply that the H&S pattern will not established...
The downward sloping neckline is a worry in that a H&S pattern does not have to established with a long slow decline to say 0.86 by Xmas 2016...however if there is a neckline break, it would indicate a good chance "happening" the NZ economy would experience a sudden slump.
The good scenario is that the NZ$ could keep wavering around its 0.88 - 0.95 and the H&S pattern fails to become established..or better still break parity:D.
The chart below has dotted line Target price..I wondered if to include it,,but I did anyway...This dotted line is line in the sand using probabilities of a "happening" and is highly significant (85% chance the dotted line will be reached if the neckline is broken)..the TP dotted line is not a support or resistance line therefore it should have no effect on the outcome of the NZ$ price..
EDIT: chart error..Primary Support 0.95 should read Primary Resistance 0.95
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2016022016.png
Dairy prices fall for fourth time in a row at GlobalDairyTrade auction
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11590485
pipe dream that NZD will stay strong .... once this housing bubble pops ...biggest exports getting smashed ....back to the 80's soon enough
will be looking to transver more funds into AUD soon enough
The .86 neckline target is getting closer. What do you guys think the odds are of the Kiwi breaking this level ?
Very likely .. IMHO parity was pure pipe dream......and when you at a long term chart 1998-2016 there is clearly a head and shoulders pattern developed last few years ....so BEARISH outlook over the long term
high 70's bottom out 2017-18 my pick
Glad to have brought more AUD recently
I try not take too much notice with TA forward projections ...but if FAers can do it with forward PE's and earnings..then so can TAers..
Usually both FA and TA forward analysis come to grief at some point and the blame falls on the so-called "unexpected" events whereas the blame should really fall on the analyst doing the unreliable things with their disciplines... whether its TA or FA it doesn't matter..
But I can't resist myself.....
Why?....
1..The 25 year chart shows the NZ$ v A$ as in a cyclical currency relationship
2..The cyclical oscillation is near symmetrical...implying that if NZ/Ausralia relationships remain similar as they have done in the past, the future prediction should be very reliable.
3..The classic Head and Shoulder pattern is the most reliable of all chart patterns.
4...Past Head and shoulder patterns have worked and their predicted target points were accurate enough..
As I'm a believer that a high currency shows a better economy.. then that assumption + the chart below suggests the NZ economic future performance will be below that of it's Aussi Neighbor for the next 4 years...So the greener pastures will once again be over the ditch...
As an NZ investor the chart implies that my Equity portfolio should contain a decreasing NZ exposure..Any Multi Currency Trading account money could be better off in Aussi cash rather than NZ cash...
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2014032016.png
Great work Hoop.... will also be putting more funds into AUD ...2020 be a great time to bring the funds back to NZD....if all goes to plan with my ASX picks I'm hoping it will be a good amount
Hoops - interesting you should do some predicting, esp taking a currency chart and extrapolating a possible outcome to foretell how 2 economies are going to do
Lets see how this turns out eh - "As I'm a believer that a high currency shows a better economy.. then that assumption + the chart below suggests the NZ economic future performance will be below that of it's Aussi Neighbor for the next 4 years...So the greener pastures will once again be over the ditch..."
Interesting TA v FA
I think NZ will still have stronger growth than Aust - ie NZ$ will recover ........but if the Chinese start building big time again and want more iron than a tumble in the nz$ v au$ is likely (your head and shoulders pattern playing out)
I agree with Hoop. NZD not only could drop against AUD but also against majority of currencies which include USD. Despite some depreciation still AUD and NZD are two of the most overvalued currencies in the world.
In the short run there could be some support for both AUD and NZD while having volatility. However, as we haven’t seen strong phase Of USD yet we can expect further fall in currencies such as AUD and NZD most probably during second half of 2016 and in 2017/18. I expect bigger fall in both AUD and NZD in 2017/18.
In addition, I believe just like Euro we should see single currency in New Zealand and Australia as well. This will eliminate not only fluctuation risks and exchange costs but also will lead to closer co-operation between two countries.
Some of the benefits of the single currency are:
- Greater security and more opportunities for businesses and markets
- Improved economic stability and growth
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
I always laugh when I see the pair quoted this way, who are all these people?
NZD remains vulnerable to a fall in risk appetite.
http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-...bullish-183333
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/busine...-2016-analysts
New Zealand dollar to slide in 2016 - analysts
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
NZD looking good
Aussie inflation surprisly down so punters expect a rate cut over the Tasman
Wheeler being brave and not bowing to the wishes of the bank commentators might mean no more OCR cuts and softening the boom bust cycle he has created
So likely stronger NZD v AUD next few months
RBA has cut so going to keep the pressure on the cross and RBNZ .....
http://www.investordaily.com.au/mark...m_medium=email
Over 95 cents now - not surprising seeing economy on fire
Parity - not likely but heck it could remain at these sort of levels for a while
good time to invest in oz shares?
The reasonable but not spectacular GDF number this morning gave the nzd a decent boost
Going well isn't it
One month later and it is 0.9625.
Hamish & Fred Dagg (from the NZR thread)...An example of how not to put all your total faith/money with Economists/Commentators/Financiers and Brokers forward projections.
A real worry is the interest rate curve is inverting again..(a perceived recessionary view by markets if inversion not corrected)
The 5yr swaps is OCR is 2.25 3M Bills 2.42 5Yr Swaps 2.29% 10 yr swaps 2.61
From RBNZ website the next review is 11th August (over 2 months between periods this time) which is a still long way away..
Hmmmm..question.. ..Mr Wheeler is there going to be a Official Cash Rate drop happening before the scheduled 11th August announcement date??
OMG, just heard Cam Bagrie of ANZ on the radio that the nzd and aud will equal sometime in the next year
Simple really - the cross rate driven by relative economic performance across the 2 countries. NZ continuing to do well and AU facing headwinds, now more apparent with the political uncertainity
Good to see my mate Cam realising this - wonder if the banks will stick to the low to mid 80's forecasts they seem to have at present.
Message is clear - the NZD is not overvalued
Message is clear - the NZD is not overvalued
My view is a long term strong currency is a sign of a healthy, stable environment and a growing economy...gotta go now.. need to find a piece of wood to touch.:)
...the purchasing power parity approach...
???..do you mean the sudden attraction to implement a different form of easing such as "helicopter money"...like giving everyone a tax refund /tax break incentive or depositing $1000 dollars into everyone's bank account, so to kickstart the economy (prevent deflation) using "from the ground up" method by increasing purchasing power of the people?................towards parity?... to match the well used conventional "trickle down" methods such as lowering interest rates, increasing liquidity and other forms of monetary easing ??
Yeah..its getting a bit hard (especially in the EU) to kick start growth by lowering interest rates (easing liquidity) when the rates are already in the negatives. It seems monetary easing in these sorts of financial environments loses some of it's potency..Apparently the negative rates are creating other problems Insurance Companies and the Banks are finding it tough going.
....so...I guess looking at other more unconventional options of kicking growth is understandable
I see Finland were thinking about this last year... swapping from traditional benefits distribution to helicopter money..The saving in administration costs would be so huge that they could afford to give money (800 Euros a month) to every individual that are of Finish citizenship..
I'm not sure about the effects this has on a Country's currency
Goodness gracious me - Westpac bank guys woken up -
We see scope for further gains to the 0.98-1.00 area during the month ahead. Geopolitical uncertainty should affect the AUD more than the NZD, and the market is losing confidence in an August cut from the RBNZ.
Still trying to work out why the variance to their 'fair value model' is so high - th model says it shoul be 86 cents
I see the recent interest rate drop didn't see the Aussi$ tumble longer term ..it seems to have strengthened a bit..
Maybe the people are now seeing that lower interest rates may help the economy become stronger + equity markets and equalising with other currency with similar interest drops... thereby not always mean "a drop in interest rate = a drop in currency" in the longer term....The currency should reflect the health of that Nation
Let's see what happens to the NZ$ next week...Mr Wheeler has left things very late..the market is inverting and the 5yr swaps are at 2.08%..
Crikey!!! the market is telling us the OCR would not look out of place at 1.75%...The present 2.25% level looks very out of place now.
..It seems the RBNZ has it's tits in a tangle over John key's criticism and the media leak, they have gone "dark"..Not showing their intentions to give markets some sense of certainty and time to slowly correct is foolish in my opinion..Where is the Janet approach?...
Next week...The market is expecting the OCR to be cut by 0.25% to 2.0%...It wouldn't surprise me to see a 1.75% bombshell hit the markets...but I'm a pleb and my opinion is useless and worth nothing..
......assuming the NZD drops - lately doesn't seem to do what Wheeler thinks it should does it?
(And yes Wheeler is being sucked in by bank economists to make drastic cuts - ASB even suggesting 1.5%. Cuts only add to current economic boom and creates a mega-boom and what followsa boom?)
A Kaboom?:mellow:..
Kiora...Do not wish for a lower NZ$, it may come true...It may seem nice for an Exporter on paper, but in reality it ain't..
Look at the "recent" times when our dollar was low.. 1984/6 .. 1992/3.. 2001/2.. 2008/9..
2008/9 was mild to the general public in NZ and didn't affect most people too much apart from the retirees...Unfortunately most younger people think the 2008 GFC was the worst recession ever and it didn't affect them so they assume no problems for the future recessions..eh?
...In reality earlier recessions were a lot worse for NZ ..Ask any Oldtimer Tradie what it was like in 1992 and 2001...very ugly times.
When were those periods when our NZ$ were at their lowest value?..,,Yep when NZ had financial/economy problems combined with personal hardship which included exporters..
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/char...01&d2=20161231
On balance lower dollar from memory lifted the rural economies though.I still remember the 80's when the rural economy was really sick.Once the Lange govt took over,$ crashed but the rural economy was humming within 2 years.Maybe too simplistic and one part of the economy but things go in cycles and I wonder if/when it will be the time for the rural economy to lift(apart from apples,honey,wine that are doing well).Its certainly been a long stretch in the doldrums but few things last forever.
Kiora...Do not wish for a lower NZ$, it may come true...It may seem nice for an Exporter on paper, but in reality it ain't..
Really well the factory we supply with our export product it does ,, the NZD/AUD has a huge affect on my take home pay as I'm paid on a percent of the gross sale price less fixed costs...the difference is huge ...a 80c to 95c is a basic drop of 20-25% of my income...and I'm sure many others would be affected likewise
A drop in currency value is a Short Term Fix only JB ..Theory says over the long term a persistent low currency ...is not good to most of us..It makes for a drop in competitiveness, produce becomes less attractive to buyers (quality/price) unemployment increases..This could result in a downward currency value spiral.. Overall I don't think that scenario would be great for your exporting business or your pay packet ...eh?
Anyway..what percent of the working population,as yourself, get a pay rise every time the NZ dollar drops...1 % , 2%, ..?...A drop in currency is a "swings and roundabouts" "Rob Peter to pay Paul" type scenarios ..The counter-argument with a drop in currency is how many lose their jobs at the importing end?... .
I reckon over time (the long term) a high currency is far far better for everyone than a low currency...So why is it that everyone is brainwashed into thinking a Country should have to keep dropping their currency to perform.. The logic is wrong.. its short sighted thinking....and when Central Banks start acting this way it creates destructive currency wars.
Still Don't believe me... OK..
I googled this website economics made simple..
quote..."
Long Term Factors
In the long term, a country may boost productivity and competitiveness, this would create jobs and increase demand for exports. This would also help reduce unemployment and strengthen the exchange rate.
High unemployment may be caused by a lack of competitiveness which reduces the value of the exchange rate over time.
This is a good article. A bit of Rodney touting for business but a good read
Why the forex market is smarter than the Reserve Bank
http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/SmartForexJul16.pdf
Governor Wheeler has spent almost the last two years trying to talk the exchange rate down. His comments and actions may have played a part in it falling for a period. However, since September last year the exchange rate has appreciated 12% contrary to the governor's continued calls for it to fall more in response to the falls in export prices and especially dairy farm incomes; despite him backing up his calls with OCR cuts. History is full of examples of the forex market, for all its shortcomings, being smarter than Reserve Bank governors and I don't expect things to be different this time around as discussed in this Raving. In our monthly forex reports I have been predicting upside in the exchange rate, with the upside being aided rather than hindered by the five OCR cuts the governor has delivered.
A high NZD is great for NZ consumers that's for sure and the retail/importing businesses that benefit ...and foreign borrowers ....a long term high NZD only enlarges these debts >> and directs more employment into these import /consumer lead industries
We of course can paper over the issues of low paying retail/tourism/consumer jobs by keeping the door open for me consumers to come and live here ...
Fact-
New Zealand was such an efficient farming nation,
and the demand from Britain for food so great, that for
decades New Zealand – Britain’s farm in the South
Pacific, as it was often called – enjoyed one of the
highest standards of living in the world.....and why was this because we had huge export demand and high paying export jobs and low debt in housing ....the present NZ is going the other direction ...debt fueled property bubbles , huge increase in jobs for
--Just look at many of the Export focused nations- Japan,China in their Currency wars, also known as competitive devaluations, is a condition in international affairs where countries seek to gain a trade advantage over other countries by causing the exchange rate of their currency to fall in relation to other currencies....
JB... Strange quote of fact to support your low currency argument
Fact-
New Zealand was such an efficient farming nation,
and the demand from Britain for food so great, that for
decades New Zealand – Britain’s farm in the South
Pacific, as it was often called – enjoyed one of the
highest standards of living in the world.....and why was this because we had huge export demand and high paying export jobs and low debt in housing ....the present NZ is going the other direction ...debt fueled property bubbles , huge increase in jobs for
Did you know that the NZ pound was a very high valued currency back then it was pegged to the British Pound and then to the US Dollar yep..The NZ currency fell in tandem with our standard of living with the Bretton Woods event and from the 1960's onwards our currency slowly devalued with the falling peg... The data I found by 1967 the new much lower decimal currency NZ$1 was = US$1.47 now its US$0.71..Unfortunately the currency figures for NZ as with all NZ business data is very hard to find..but I do know this from 1960 onwards the regulated NZ currency was lowering in value (but still far too high) and so was our standard of living together with a persistent faltering economy. Britain no longer guaranteed to buy all our produce exposed NZ as very vulnerable country to market forces (competitiveness) and as our own Market competitiveness was very low it reflected in our lowering currency..Regulated currency being propped up was far too overvalued for a Country heading toward a banana republic status
Did you know that Britain bought our Butter back in 1947 for 1s 6p that is equilivant to NZ$12.09 today but that's not the real price as the British was similar priced currency to NZ, so it was worth British 12 pound 1s that's equivalent to today's exchange rate of (0.54) NZ$22.39/lb of butter and that's wholesale rates..(see NZ archive reference)
Now that why NZ was a wealthy country and we had a great standard of living back then and naturally little debt...so lets continue to screw Mother England....eh. (see NZ Archives)
But things in NZ back then when I was a kid was highly expensive shoes,cars,machinery,TV radios etc...I grew up on a dairy farm...milking 80 cows a day was enough for a very good living and during the daytime there was ample leisure time...all that farmer lifestyle started to erode away by the mid 1960's...actually had to get off your arse and break more land in and milk more cows...The regulated drops in NZ currency was usually too late and had no lasting effect..by 1970 my Father and Mother were "going through the Mill" (hard times)..Honestly no country wanted to buy our dairy products packed in unsealed cardboard boxes or wrapped up in hessian..When the unsold butter became a mountain of rancid muck they would ship it out into mid-ocean and dump it overboard.. I still remember the dressed lamb carcasses in Hessian on the freight train to be exported overseas..they were fly blown...The old NZ attitude was back then was "stop whinging if you didn't like it go somewhere else" The inability to listen and learn about change took NZ culture decades to rectify..
The lag on my previous chart shows this inability to compete timeline (and instead relied on Govt subsidies)...Which reminds me how crazy the Subsidy on milk was back then..We lived on a dairy farm but bought bottled milk.
NZ archives
Yes I thought it might well have been ...but do you really think NZ would be a better country for all with such a strong NZD say parity against USD and stronger than the AUD ? .. If it does I hope I have moved into a different sector as If I don't most likely be earning around half what I did 10yrs ago...maybe importing aussie/yank seafood to feed kiwis
This is why the NZ$ currency went up with the Reserve Bank dropping the OCR from 2.25% to 2.0%
Winner...you will be a Wheeler fan now..eh?http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/wink2.gif
JB...you won't be
yes I always read Rodney's free stuff. He sure wont get a job back in the RBNZ anytime soon. heheh.
Regarding this thread topic, I tend to have a long term faith that the Aussie $ will overall be more robust than our one, simply due to the overall size and breadth of their economy though they did become (like us) too dependent on a particular sector. Not a trading strategy though.
Technically after a massive decline I see a bullish gartley on the AUD/NZD cross rate at the weekly view.
Attachment 8215
The market credit is automatically tightening to the point of inverting the yield curve...The Central Banks around the world have probably caused this problem starting a few years back but that's another story..
Today we have in NZ a risk free instrument offering a higher rate than a more risky instrument..and you Winner want it see this situation being more exaggerated..
From what I've been taught..this situation diverts credit away from the longer time period end of maturities e.g business loans and mortgages etc, creating a credit squeeze...and an economic slowdown... some say enough to cause recessions...
Some might say this is what's needed to halt the property market boom and the probably the Equity market boom as well...but creating a credit squeeze when a market is perilously overvalued is like using a sledgehammer to crack a nut...it can cause a crash...This is the last thing that anybody wants to see happen..Joe and Jane Public may like to see property prices fall (for the moral good), but that would create a period of deflation which is the last thing the NZ economy wants or can afford....Would it solve Mr Wheelers frustration over a high dollar..maybe, maybe not...it depends on the flight to quality
With many gauges pointing in the Red Zone and a Government breathing down your neck over the property bubble .. it's may not a good time to be a Reserve Bank Governor..methinks:(
Asked then for a clear signal: will you do whatever it takes to stop inflation expectations dropping, including, if it was required, consider dropping interest rates to zero?
His answer could not have been more empty. "Let's see how the future unfolds."
--Graeme Wheeler
Jb - you must hate it every time Wheeler wantsvto say something
Xrate breaks thru 95 ...yippee
The New Zealand dollar rose ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler which may hint at the timing of further easing, with at least one further cut expected this year.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0...prospects.html
Traders have him sussed
I see Citibank is calling for parity, I imagine the RBNZ will step in if we start getting close.
They are slowly starting to run out of ammunition tho on the rates side of things and with housing already out of control they will be wary of lowering rates too much. With so much money pouring in from overseas its going to be hard to combat and its not all about yield, its also being fuelled by immigration.
Agree................and performing better than Australia for a wee while now so NZ should be closing the gap and if NZ keeps performing better than OZ then parity should be reached and overtaken.....Good too is, in global money terms NZ is also closing the wage gap.
One by one, there are lot of theories are coming to the market.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/cb...-aussie-2016-8
CBA: Cows could herd the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Aussie
I expect beginning of major weakness in these two currencies against USD sooner than later. Despite some slow depreciation against USD still they have some strength.
Average Australian household income is nearly 20k (20%) AUD higher than here in NZ... thinking parity mean NZD'er are doing better doesn't stack up ....yes we are chasing the aussies Debt to household incomes ....
Reading comments people make on Confidence Surveys etc i never know whether to cry or laugh when several think it is their entitlement to have a weak / low nzd and feel hard done by when it goes against them
Wonder what our mate Wheeler is thinking now?
He needs to stop worrying about the NZD and earn his keep on worrying about other things
Then again be good if he did bit more jaw boning
Well depends what you mean by performing well.
Don't get confused by a world chasing yield with performance.
We do have political stability and that is certainly better than the rotational PM job in Aussie.
However parity for the cross is not a good thing, although it does help with our imports from across the ditch including building materials to support the housing boom.
The economy is being driven by immigration, so depends on your view there is a substantial cost to that.
Government spending should be rising by 5-10 billion every year to cater for the new infrastructure, social spending etc for the increase in population.
However we aren't seeing that as they can't fund it, so its not sustainable and they are creating a government budget crisis one day that will require catch up. Where I live we have massive infrastructure issues and they are so far behind its already creating problems in regards sewerage, roads and town planning. Anyway enough of the political rant.
I have been building a large position in the cross shorting the Kiwi. Perhaps we will see it go lower, however I get the feeling the RBNZ may have already been in the market. There was a massive move the other night pushing it back toward 1.04, obviously it didn't hold.
If it moves lower I will add to the position as I can't see this level being sustained.
Daytr - You having a great time with your punts on the VIX etc. well done
Can't really go wrong with your punt on the AUD/NZD either can you - if nothing else the cycle is in your favour. No doubt we will see 75/1.33 (whichever way you look at it) again some time in the future. How much you make probably depends on how patient you are.
How are you trading VIX Daytr (i.e., what instrument code are you using?)
Agree with you on AUDNZD, have an average price around .957 - MACD divergence points to a kick higher
Through a CFD via CMC markets.
Should have hung on. Mind you it dipped considerably for 24 hours before charging into the 18s!
Can't complain, I made very good money.
Now hopefully there will be a big mover in the Kiwi cross!
Goldman Sachs analyst is one of the few sensible analysts around - he says NZ don't need any more rate cuts
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...imb-over-rates
I've thinking the same too..at the moment....my my.. how my thinking has changed this last month... going from should've been a rate drop to 1.75% .. to now, the 2% should not be lowered..
I've been watching the NZ interest rate market movements for some time now....they took an "unhealthy" dive 2 months back, when the market created a partially inverted yield curve. I mentioned "unhealthy" because the Inverted yield curve is one of my "ducks" .. when many ducks line up in a row a recession usually begins..While the market was diving the NZRB lowered the rates from 2.25 to 2.00% , although the 0.25% fall corrected the yield curve..at that time I questioned whether a rate cut should've been to 1.75% as there was a lot of negative sentiment washing around most markets and the yield curve was looking rather flat......
Since mid August.. I got a gut feeling something suddenly changed, the world financial sentiment entered a "happy space". There was an absence of bad news and for a month the Bulls rallied...
Then last week a sharp world wide equity correction occurred using the same old lame, well worn excuse (FED to raise rates at some near future point in time)..
Positive Sentiment towards NZ has remained and recently intensified..with more "happy" news about the NZ economic growth..sort of brings back memories of the "Rock Star Economy" status..eh?
What didn't respond to the recent world wide Equity correction and a new phase of "worrying sentiment" was the NZ swap rates..They have instead ticked up (see interactive chart)
I wonder if Goldman Sachs are watching this area..
I've been debating this with a few colleagues of late. We all know the guvna is playing currency wars for the exporters, inflation is a lost cause as there's not much of that going around anywhere at the moment.
First glance it looks like cutting below the 3% OCR level has caused the NZD to rally (as seen in below graph)
Attachment 8323
However that poses the question, where would the NZD be now if they hadn't have cut further to 2%?
Wheels is in a tough position, reluctantly cutting to keep the currency under control somewhat. Only positive is that the banks are not fully passing on the cut to borrowers/savers so it isn't fueling the housing fire as much.
Some nice moves the last few days Daytr, big morning star formed on the weekly :)
As I said before still NZD has some support. After rates cut instead of going down, NZD went up. House prices also went up and up. Sooner we don't see some sort of adjustment to the NZD, there could be some hard landing at some point. We should see real picture from 2018/19 onwards. By that time we should be able to get clear idea about FED and their policies as well.
Yep, its been a good week. AUD/NZD well in the money and actually halved my position. Will top up again if we fall back.
Also went short JPY vs USD close to 100 & gold long around $1311. Been some very good swings which is a great trading environment.
RBNZ fighting a losing battle with interest rates and its dangerous as NZ has an incredibly inflated property market.
Both the ccy & property is being impacted by inflows caused by immigration.
The RBNZ can't and shouldn't fight government policy. If the government wants strong immigration, then one of the consequences is a strong dollar.
Nice work! Happy to be long AUD as a core position and add, plenty of blue sky above. Assuming US raise this year and we get an OCR cut we'll be off to the races! :)
A Vancouver-style property tax would be a great idea - can't see it happening though, John Key isn't showing much spine on what is becoming a problem
ATTACH=CONFIG]8326[/ATTACH]
Yeah that's my same thought with the Yen. I can see that going back toward 120 to the USD.
I'd like to see the AUD/NZD strengthen again back toward 1.02. But it seems to like 1.05+ at the moment.
AUDNZD not looking like coming back yet unfortunately Daytr, might hit some resistance around the 1.072 area - good spot on the Yen, thanks, that has potential
Also potential for NZDUSD to be back around the 0.66 area soon-ish
NZD Hanging in around Aoo.96
Still might see parity ...maybe
Yeah....I'm noticing the macro's are looking healthier e.g commodity prices are ticking back up...wool oil dairy metals (iron ore, copper etc)..great news for the big commodity exporting nations like Aussie and Canada (NZ too)..
Parity depends on who would benefit better going forward from here, NZ or OZ? A tough question to answer..both will do well but purely from the macro viewpoint my gut feel favours OZ
There is a large bullish gartley on the AUD/NZD cross, but its on the monthly timeframe so could take a while to eventuate, or of course it could fail ;+)
POE 1.03101
TP 1.05016
Perhaps a wee bit premature ...
About to plummet
Attachment 8587
I believe the appropriate statement on the forum these days is 'nicely positioned'
:)
bought more AUD/NZD at 1.0481 ....... target is 1.1 so thats 90 for you people who quote the other way round.
Attachment 8616
I still reckon the pattern of short term spikes and tumbles to remain in place. surprisingly (for some) is that the NZD hasn't fallen v AUD in response to Australian export prices improving relative to NZ prices in recent months.
I still reckon NZ fundamentals will perform stronger than Australian fundamentals this year and so see NZD/AUD remaining pretty high this year (maybe longer) .......and one of those spikes could even take it to parity (thats 1.0 who quote te other way round)
Depending on your timeframe peat you might get lucky on one of those short term tumbles
your post sounds pretty sarcastic winner , what with the conversion of parity and the 'you might get lucky' .... :mellow:
but thank you for the correction.
my time frame is quite large as the bullish gartley is more visible on a weekly time frame,
this pic is from mid August last year
Attachment 8623
this is current
Attachment 8624
so its done a double take on the D leg but following that has behaved appropriately. I;m not predicting the relative economic strength of the economy's (this is TA) it just looks like a perfect reversal pattern after those huge moves down from 2011 shown here and then a final capitulation leg.
Attachment 8625
not sure about my standing, but I persevere. and try to be helpful both here and for work.
No sarcasm peat - just our views are different but then one is from a TA perspective and the other from a fundamental perspective
Standing - just a thought that as you work in the finance industry things should be 'right'
Sorry you took the post the wrong way. Didn't intend to offend. Forgiven?
yes yes no problem, and indeed things should be correct, I was definitely careless with that conversion.
NZD on a roll v AUD
Unexpected low CPI in AU and increasing CPI in NZ possibly helping
Might be one of those decent spikes up coming
Jeez, nzd nearly 0.97 aud
That's good
Could even spike higher
Done its dash?
Attachment 8636
I'm thinking "Yup"
Attachment 8638
Today's NZ jobs statistics the factor.
For the present overseas assets are now worth a bit more in NZD
the low of 1.0321 (AUD/Kiwi) was a bit testing but (for me) its good to see the strong rally after that based on two items of news so the long trade holds (I was going to start scaling out below 1.03)
Give it time...........(Ignore the market noise)..........I'm thinking down
Attachment 8658
AUD/NZD: Key FX Pair for Next Week
Next week is all about the Australian and New Zealand dollars. We will hopefully find out which of the two currencies is stronger relative to the other one as central banks of both nations have their policy decisions. In addition, we will hear from governors of both the RBA and RBNZ, not to mention there will be some important data from the region. The volatility in the AUD/NZD therefore should go up by a good few notches.
http://snip.ly/k2tlc?utm_content=buffer633ab&utm_medium=social&ut m_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-technicals/aud%10nzd:-key-fx-pair-for-next-week-20170204280506/
That's another "Yup, as expected"
Attachment 8673
a good couple of days on the long Aud/NZD front. we've quickly gone to 1.06
Attachment 8676
but while its nice to in the black there's still a long way to go to reach my target - as we've seen in the last week a cent or two is just noise, so 1.10 is easy, maybe even 1.14
NZD having one of those spikes down (following the pattern of spikes up and down)
Popular opinion has this as more if a spike down - rather a tumbling NZD into the 80s
?????
Here comes the tumble into the 80s fellas
Attachment 8724
a month after my lost post and we almost hit 1.09 AUD/NZD a further 300 pips. 1.0892 to be precise.
I am now slowly beginning to scale out. but I'm in no hurry as it could well just keep going up and up
Re:...yes back to 1.37 we go..
Yep those were the days...everyone driving around in rust buckets visiting garage sales... and... buying too many commodity items at the supermarket resulted in financial pain rather than indigestion pain...