You may have brought some of mine.!!!
Was selling a few "free" ones yesterday.!!...lol.
Printable View
There will be a time to invest in CVT but best to wait for the dust to clear - fund managers do not take kindly to being 'misled' and some of them have a philosophy to liquidate if they feel they have been misled. Especially if they are still sitting on huge capital gains.
CVT is still up on where it was at the beginning of the year, and way up (>100%) on where it was 2 years ago.
I would wait for the PE contraction to stabilize now that the stock is past its PE expansion phase in sp.
You guys finished with your negativity and selling? Just asking as am in for more, wondering if we have a bottom yet as seems stalled at offers 9.65 and 9.8 ;-) ...9.7 v 9.75 ...9.7 v 9.7
Craigs Investment rates it today as a BUY with TP $13.00
At last someone positive LOL ;)
Just remember that Craigs is house broker (or as the industry calls it, house poodle) to Comvita. Big big gain of salt and swallow of vinegar first before swallowing their valuation!
Bit like house broker to Feltex Forsyth Barr thinking that Feltex was actually worth something a few weeks before it went broke! Ouch!
DYOR.
BTW - not implying CVT is a Feltex! Just using an extreme example of what house poodles do to retain the corporate client for more fees etc.
Don't fall into the trap of wanting to read only what you want! Nobody questions that CVT is a great company and a kiwi success story which nearly was taken over a few years ago.
It all comes down to what is a fair price to pay for a great company. Following a house poodle is not a good way to determine the fair price.
Excellent post and agree 100%, (you should post more often). At the least what he is reported as saying was "unfortunate". I have extremely limited experience dealing with the media but they don't always report what you want them to say but then again with no media training I know enough to chose my words very very carefully. Responding to a reporter in the context of the Chinese regulatory change I think the CEO could have done a far better job or articulating the effect more accurately.
Technically what he said may be correct in that overall sales are not being affected but the impression that came across whether intended or not is in a regional sense we're not being affected, which we now know is clearly not the case.
It gives the impression of a flip-flop and confidence is unsurprisingly affected. I am not surprised to see the SP down again today. I think its hard to see it making significant progress until further clarity on the main issue is forthcoming.
here comes the bounce
Yeu didn't let Balances advice go without fully understanding what he was trying to tell you did you? If so go back and read it again.
The house broker probably makes more providing market services to a corporate client than they do brokering trades in a particular share. As rational actors they are going follow the money. They are going to avoid trash talking or negativity towards a corporate clients shares as this will result in angy telephone calls from the management and loss of business to another broker.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
The PE is very reasonable given average growth to date but the size of the elephant in the room and its impact on future growth is almost impossible to value at this point in my view, not helped by the fact that the CEO seems to have been behind the ball in terms of understand the elephant's significance. That they are now spending serious money on other distribution channels to "mitigate" the effects in my view gives an important hint as to the materiality of the issue going forward. A real shame they weren't more forthcoming four weeks ago. I am certain there are plenty of other shareholders underwhelmed with his original somewhat inarticulate repose. I expect insto's to vote with their feet for a while.
[QUOTE=Roger;633839A real shame they weren't more forthcoming four weeks ago. I am certain there are plenty of other shareholders underwhelmed with his original somewhat inarticulate repose. I expect insto's to vote with their feet for a while.[/QUOTE]
As I mentioned earlier, lets hope this is an "isolated management issue" (and the 8 week payment issue mentioned by another poster on Stuff is also an "isolated management issue")... and doesn't paint more disturbing/questioning issues of management and how the handle things going forward...
How can punters not think this is a $15 or $20 share with charts like this
http://www.afr.com/business/health/i...0160824-gqzt9y
Interesting article, CVT is by far not the success story 'growth stock' that has been hit hard recently "Blackmores shares tumbled 13 per cent or $20.54 to $140.32 in early trade. Yes, the stock is still up 72 per cent over the last 12 months, but it is now well off the $220 it peaked at in early January"
Seem to have also struck some channel issues similar to CVT... interesting the part around "daigou"... essentially could result in lower margins.
The question at the end is essentially the exact same as what we debating here (open the link to read more ;) hope you are all able to access it)
Thinking about that mountain of honey intensifying potentising and as time goes by UMFying, maximising.
Be back to 10 bucks today
Amazing how good that sounds - a few months we would be horrified with such a thought
The "chicken littles" will prob rush back in and catapult it! :t_up:
Swarming back to the hive
No worries - "Comvita confident it will weather new Chinese rules"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11700416
Manuka honey featuring on Bloomberg News.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...agne-of-honeys
The hound has a very sweet tooth and likes all things honey especially manuka honey but realises its not flavour of the month so staying on the sidelines at present.
Does manuka honey go any good with whiskey in the hot toddy as a cold remedy?
Just go heavy on the Whiskey, single malt, minimum 12 yo. Mmmmmm lovely.
I go Blis, sucking on maximum dosage frequency until symptoms reverse often taking those after 10ml of Artemis Virogone, maximum dosage frequency: People been dropping like flies for over a month down here, massive days off work, ...I get a touch of the symptoms but doesn't go full blown, no days off, ,,,touch-wood! ...been doing for several years now, stay standing while others fall.
Whisky def the best . has the highest UMF factor.Turns the hat on the bedpost from an Ugly Mother F----er into this Urban Dictionary: UMF
Ha haaa haven't thought about alcohol content and heating it ;-) ...but a lotta herbal remedies are prep'd in alcohol ! Artemis is an amazing small biz story started by Sandra Clair a Swiss herbalist here in Dunedin. https://artemis.co.nz/
If this doesn't help CVT becoming a $20 share nothing will
https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/288461
Even if it is giving away ~7% of the company
Not giving away but yes I see this as a very sound move and note it boosts margins into China where CVT believe 60% of sales end up. Also noting the acquisition is earnings accretive from year 1.
I'm back in today as I think this is a very important development for the company and address's my concerns previously articulated. Trades cum a "whopping" 2 cent final divvy...this one definitely not part of any planned dividend stripping strategy :)
Great announcement.
Market is asleep. This should re rate back to $12 by the end of the month. Almost all of the risk about access to Chinese market has gone.
This is how the Chinese authorities do business. They play hard ball and make it difficult until you're force into a JV. Not exactly the best outcome but this is how it is over there.
Spring is here. Flowers are blooming. Bees are coming out. Good times ahead.
Roger - good to see you back in. Seeing they are cheaper now than when you sold you got heaps more eh. You sneaky bugger.
Nothing really changed. If 'doubts' over China were the reason for the recent falls today's announcement must alleviate those a lot.
I know they didn't give away 7% of the company per se ......but shows you what a strong share price can do for you when you want to buy things / invest
Somebody said CVT a $20 share - whoever it was might be right
Thanks mate, looks like we're "in clover" already :) I didn't realise 60% of products end up in China, WOW, who would have thought...just as well management are on to it and have been working on this new JV for months. No question with this being earnings accretive from the get-go this is a real game changer.
Did you read the news article mate ? I've had very little time today with business pressure but from a real quick read this morning they're big shareholders in CVT already personally, and will be bigger with this JV arrangement and they've been working successfully together with these poeple for over a decade already.
I did - am sounding a note of warning before we all get carried away with an investment in a China company as the solution to distribution in China. Fonterra and quite a number of NZ companies found out the hard way.
Talk to any Asian companies and they will caution that it is best to distribute using China owned companies.
Share price up over $10.70 now
Market likes the announcement by looks of it and the 'disappointment' of the results announcement now all forgotten
Looking good
I shouted myself some Chanui tea the other day - quite nice but tea leaves are awesome - point to CVT being $12 plus in next few months
I hadn't properly read the recent announcement re JV in China
It's really positive and a good story - building long term relationships to generate future prosperity.
They say EPS accretive (starts April next year) which implies at least an extra couple million NPAT in F18
I just happen to notice share price over $10.80 now
I sped through it this morning too in ODT: Took it that CVT bought into the distributor, 49%, powerful position, but not owning them: (I'll go back to it later to check my understanding correct but by all means correct me!) There is a ton of incentive there for this distributor to continue getting it right. There was a guy on RNZ today (financial commentator) who said that he checked out one of the CVT dedicated outlets in China, in a Mall, to see out the front of the shop a "Gift Pack" to the value of NZ$750 for 5 small CVT items! The significance of that value was also in the "numerology" of that value in Chinese currency: VERY CLEVER! It is premier value product targeting wealthy Chinese. In the mid '80's I recall a fact in some article I was reading that China had a million millionaires then! CVT are doing amazing and very cleverly IMHO. Good for the ride!
Meanwhile the unramped Ebos closes in on Twenty dollars
CVT taking 51% of the JV
Also of note is that Zhu Guangping's (majority owner of SCNT) wife owns 5.12% of Comvita ....and after the deal the Zhu family stake in Comvita will rise to 10%.
Seems to be plenty of motivation to make all this work
Hope this bit of (so called) ramping works --- got to keep the CVT share price outperforming the EBO
share price - or maybe it's just a case of both being very good company's but one does seem to do better than the other (share price wise)
Its not earnings accretive in its 1st full year of trading UNLESS start up costs are "ignored"..!!
What are the start up costs?
Mind you, under the evidently acceptable Dick Smith accounting process, its probably earnings accretive before it even happened....
Good write-up on NBR behind the paywall on this new JV and over 6 minute interview with the CEO. He talked some pretty interesting margin expansion numbers. Would love to cut and paste but the police say I'm not allowed. Bottom line is they've been working together with these people already for over a decade. Don't know how others feel but by the time you've had a business relationship for over a decade you usually have a pretty good handle on who you're doing business with. There's almost always start up costs with new JV's, (you have to invest to get returns) but they're saying its earning accretive from year one and based on the interview that the CEO gave and margin expansion numbers he was talking I am very comfortable with this new JV.
Agreed. I think the announced JV is clearly a good thing and in my view a step towards risk reduction. What might concern me a bit more is the 60% reliance on just one market, which happens to be quite tightly politically controlled. Embargoes for political reasons are unfortunately not unheard of and neither are import restrictions based on political motives CVT has no control over. I think what CVT now definitely needs to do is to put effort into diversifying into other markets.
Discl: not holding (yet:sleep:)
CVT announcements and commentary in recent times raise a few red flags to me :
1. CEO's comments that import restrictions in China did not impact on CVT - and then admitted the restrictions do indeed impact.
2. We know know 60% of CVT's sales end up in China directly and indirectly - so it is naive at best but downright misleading at worse for CVT to state 1 in the first place.
3. The JV is obviously in recognition of 1 & 2 - the issue is why CVT needs to take a shareholding in the distributor when they are already doing a good job?
4. The release states that the investment is earnings accretive - one better hope so as CVT is paying over $30m (in shares). But is it eps accretive or just earnings accretive? Big difference between the two.
5. Will the JV offset the impact of 1 and 2?
Worthwhile considering irrespective of how bullish or bearish you have been.
Fair enough Balance. Like you I have reservations around the disclosure made earlier but as stated at the time, in my opinion the Herald doesn't always report what you say in an accurate or fulsome manner.
Further, they did say that they have been working on this for months. I take you point about your question about earnings accretive of EPS accretive and acknowledge the difference but if you'd heard the interview that was reported behind the paywall on NBR you wouldn't be quibbling over this minor share issue and I expect it will be inconsequential to the overall scheme of things.
Not a big position for me ~ 4% portfolio and I am very comfortable with that.
Ha haaa Winner is there a CVT v EBO race on I don't know about?
Oh! ok CVT are controlling. (i didn't get back to it ...other type of "work" occupied today) Oh well "controlling" should be fine and at 51/49 still works that "i do very well, you do very well!!!" ;-)
Chris Lee on manuka honey
http://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock
This ONL looks interesting for punters
Good newsletter confirming my own thought that China tightening up its borders / regulations on what is or is not Manuka is completely in CVT's favour. Ever improving "trusted importer/distributor/retailer" status will see CVT go ballistic ... imho! The whole nation should be planting Manuka on its rubbish land! I've planted 4 against my southern hedge-line and have been contemplating inviting one of the new trend, urban apiarists, to install a hive in my back-yard, a movement going on around the world! :t_up:
But Jim,you need a ha of Manuka per hive for Manuku honey,you will need to turn all your neighborhood in to scrub land !
http://www.virtualoceania.net/newzea...a/nz1259.shtml
Cheers ;-) I was referring to spare hectares around the whenua. My planting in my backyard is mainly because I like the plants and seeing the bees and birds around, wasn't really expecting apiarist to get authentic manuka-honey from my 4. Got quite a collection of natives now protected against the southerlies by existing hedge-row. Even got a Kauri (here in Dunedin!) which took a bit of saving when it packed a sad for near 2 years!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11708267
Quite a few mentions of "softer" trading.
Investors seem happy that the bean counters are looking for efficiency gains...
Still learning
What's the MSG grading system thats used by some producers - different from the UMF that Comvita uses?
You mean the 'MGO' (Methyl glyoxal) system?
Its a somewhat outdated way of determining the grade of Manuka honey. MGO is the active ingrediant in manuka, formed in the conversion from DHA.
UMF grading takes into account the MGO, DHA and Leptosperin levels of the honey.
My fault - it's MGS - Molan Gold Standard
http://www.mgs.org.nz/
It's used by an outfit in the Wairarapa which appears to export heaps of manuka honey / products
They've always been a reasonably sized player. The 'control' over supply (and margin) has shifted from the packer, to the beekeeper and is now with the land owners. The big winners in the industry are going vertically integrated and will squeeze some of the smaller players
DOC is also looking to lease Manuka rich blocks of theirs to beekeepers in the near future.
Sure wish I could buy more CVT but I've cleaned out my CMA (asb-sec acc. !) ....bought back in after those here sold-off and going gangbusters again, they're at +15% for me!!! I've got a profit sell rule of 11% but I believe their plan, and what others say that they've a long way to go! ...so here's staying in! ;-)
Jim , are you a trader ...why limit your profits @ 11 % .
IMO if you do this you will not be able to make enough to make up for the inevitable losses along the way .
Also you absolutely miss out on the supersize profits of the big winners .... You don't want to be the guy that purchased AAPL @ 10.00 sold @ 11.10 , and watched them double to 22, 44,88,176,352,704 odd then have a 7:1 split ......
Thanks for the advice. Yep I am playing as a trader at present but settling on a good dozen I'll leave mostly alone for a year and more soon, unless dramatics happen! I've got a list of rules I 'play' by. Prefer caution. CVT I'm in with a base qty for long haul as I love this co.. But, Am in and out with small qty on top of base qty according to the dips and highs the rest of you create. One of the best advices I got over 20 years ago was from a guy who made his fortune personal trading. He said the trouble with most people is they are too greedy. His main rule was to look for just 10% and then sell. I don't know, he may have had more complex functions on top of that, ....but anyway, I do ! "Inevitable losses on the way", ...like your name I have stop-losses at - 9%! ...but again, not on all of it! ...yet to find any body with all the answers including trading houses! ...but sure is good to scope other's thoughts here! ;-)
...hope that helps you , what do you reckon?!
If you have a base quantity you are staying with then you can stay with the trend . Way too hard to talk specifics . Like you said always learning . If it works for you great , congratulations on having a set of rules and sticking to them . It is that discipline that is key .
Some good posts on here from KW , if you can find them.
Cheers S/L
jim this thread here was started by KW. Some simple essential T/A to use "Using TA to time entries and exits"
Yes got that on my list of rules. Been diddling and learning for 20 years, but now I see the horizon of retirement and cheesed off with bank TD's, am making this my 2nd job (self-employed so can scratch out time somewhat as I please through the day, although was busy and missed a shift 3 weeks ago which cost me! C'est la vie!). Got 2/3 in mortgage free home and plot of dirt in a high cap gain town so happy with my meeting the investment spread rule!
Might put my rules up one day if it doesn't get me busted and posts removed like KW ;-)
Jim , think investment rules will be safe .
Go for it Jim, please share your nous.. KW asked for her posts to be removed when she left ,except for a few on the T/A thread
Oh she wasn't busted then. I need do a re-write and additions ...they do mutate slightly. Maybe better in "holdings" folder or some other than this CVT. Won't be today as standard "day-biz" tied up.
Looking forward to post TIL meet today. Anybody else?
A little anxious about serious negative talk about outside NZ set to implode, taking us down with them, esp. on "black monday" folder. You or Anyone else here feel rattled about sentiment lately?
Again, CVT "marrying" their distributor got to be good to keep some cashflow irrespective of global implosion.
Director Sarah keeping to her buying plan - always good to see insiders buying
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245444.pdf
https://www.nzx.com/companies/CVT/announcements/291306Quote:
Placement and MOU with China Resources Ng Fung Limited
5:08pm, 21 Oct 2016 | PLACE
Comvita announced today, the placement undertaken to China Resources Ng Fung Limited (China Resources Ng Fung) of 2,000,000 new ordinary shares in Comvita at $10.60 per share, bringing China Resources Ng Fung’s existing stake of less than 5% in Comvita to approximately 9.0%. China Resources Ng Fung is a leading integrated food enterprise in China, wholly-owned by China Resources Enterprise Limited.
The placement will strengthen working capital and provide funding to support several strategic initiatives currently under consideration by Comvita.
Contemporaneously, Comvita has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with China Resources Ng Fung regarding co-operation in the Hong Kong and Mainland China market places. China Resources Ng Fung intends to assist Comvita in stocking Comvita products in stores operated by China Resources Ng Fung’s affiliated retailers in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as assisting with regulatory processes where appropriate. China Resources Ng Fung’s affiliated retailers have over 4,000 supermarket outlets in China.
This MOU with China Resources Ng Fung has the full support of our China distributor with whom we are completing a JV distribution company in China as announced to the market on 5th September 2016. It will allow Comvita to access potential channels into China for existing and future Comvita products which may otherwise be unavailable to Comvita. Further, it will reduce our dependence on the third party exporter channels that have been a feature of our China growth in the financial period ended 30 June 2016. These channels have recently been subjected to regulatory change and new taxation imposts which has impacted sales in the last few months. Our arrangements with China Resources Ng Fung, together with our existing distribution arrangements, will diminish the impact from the volatility of these channels, which however still remains important for Comvita in New Zealand and Australia.
Comvita CEO Scott Coulter, commented, “We are confident that China Resources Ng Fung will be extremely beneficial in achieving our aspirations in China including opening up more opportunities for our new distribution JV. China Resources Ng Fung is a highly reputable corporation with extensive network in Mainland China and Hong Kong and the Executives respect our culture and the need for Comvita to be a New Zealand controlled business. We are comfortable from numerous discussions that the key Executives of China Resources Ng Fung really do ‘buy in’ to our culture and values.”
Mr Weiyong Wang, CEO of China Resources Enterprise Limited, commented, “We are delighted to be invited to be a substantial shareholder in Comvita. Comvita has been selling into China for 12 years and we hold the brand in the very highest regard. Further, we believe retention of significant New Zealand ownership in the long term was and will continue to be a vital ingredient of the business.”
Two separate distribution deals in the last month - year end stock more than double (an extra $51m) prior period and trade receivables down 30% which is a pretty good indicator of sales decline.
$2m profit booked on SEA fiasco and layoffs at head office.
The area is getting very congested and it is going to be a real test to see who can actually make a dollar - very timely cash injection and partnership I would suggest. Maybe not done from a position of strength however.
Have we seen a peak in the CVT price? Or do you think it can push through and take the market poll position....
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/246731.pdf
Main points:-
Very difficult trading conditions in first quarter. Ouch
Expecting a loss in the first half to 31 December - Double Ouch !
Expecting net profit for FY17 to be broadly similar to FY16 - Triple ouch, no profit growth on the back of increased share capital = EPS reduction !
Target of $400m annual sales has "very conveniently" been pushed out to 2021, from 2020.
Not impressed that they didn't front foot the whole regulatory issue in China properly much earlier.
At least they have taken the positive step of culling staff, (obviously this is a good step by management) but its fair to say the company is experiencing significant growing pains.
I expect the SP to under-perform until they can prove they can regain growth momentum.
Makes sense. Good on you for selling fast - no material offers left.
Agree - the last quarter was shocking - I don't dare to extrapolate the numbers to a full year. On the bright side ... maybe now I can buy the shares for $4 as I always intended?
Discl: not holding and hey, my broker is an optimist. They rejected my $4 order for CVT. Apparently I am too far away from the market price :crying:. Sigh - lets try again tomorrow;