Might have needed more for their shorting customers.
Printable View
You know it’s not a very good announcement when the headline just reads “Momentum Builds”
https://quoteapi.com/resources/da986...tum_Builds.pdf
They could have named the result - ARVIDA DELIVERS 29% LIFT IN UNDERLYING EARNINGS FIRST HALF FY 2018
The numbers look quite good though. Continues the underlying increase compared to the previous 1H's...and sets up another good Full year too.
Couldn't see anything on the outlook though...although their comments on property valuations are interesting...not really expecting a big slowdown nationally...
Good result, my main concern is the step increase in operating expenses. Seems staffing is costing them a lot more after the pay settlement
I agree, the headline was far to conservative... turns out it really was the worst part, the announcement itself was pretty good. Few percentage points more and we'll be where the famed Ryman is at - and that is trading at wild premiums, off the charts even, compared to ARV.
What makes it more impressive is their margins (not only on new units but also resales), and the fact that only 1 unit was delivered this 1st half and 94 are on the way in the second half – this really is a result skewed to the 2nd half of the year in a massive way! (not to mention new sale settlements are expected to be 70 vs just 3 in the 1sthalf)
In for a bumper full year result and big FY19 (and looks to be reasonable FY20 on the way as well). Despite a very good result, Mr Market seems to be not amused and probably waiting to see how much this apparent property slowdown impacts (maybe?)
Weird that the Net Implied Value per Share is apparently $1.19, above the current share price, then again ARV is the original dog andshould trade at a discount.
Crazy that this result seems to be largely due to their care division, which some have said on sharetrader "delivers no or negative profit"... imagine when things start to ramp up even just a tad? (which they will, already are really)... Momentum really is building... hey! maybe that wasn't such a bad headline afterall?
This half entirely comprised of resales as was expected... focus is on that large pipeline moving along.
Forward Underlying PE FY18E FY19E Notes to FY19 ARV - $1.18 15-17x 13-14x Pipeline focused on FY19 - Relying on resale's for FY18
Care outperformed expectations and the rest met expectations... therefore this result was fairly solid.
Also... 4% yield is great too, a lot to like about ARV at current price IMO.
Real profit down
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3...-valuationhtml
Crazy that other growth company, F&P barely grew at half the rate ARV did, and ARV's dull year profit is extremely skewed towards the 2nd half of this year (As noted above). No wonder the share price closed up (And all the other operators closed down or no change)
Saw Mr McDonald mentioned to NBR: "we're not actually seeing any slowdown in sales, either from resales or new stock, which is really pleasing". Due to the drivers of demand, namely being Arvida's "needs-based portfolio" - something I have been saying since day 1. (sum others seem to be hitting the rocks in resales, and new stock, but no worries... big last quarter on the way for them and they never miss their forecasts, well except ryman who didn't post their 15% growth for the first time in a decade or something like this, but sum others will never slow down!)
He also said that the whole wage thing wasn't going to impact ARV in the long run... specifically mentioning "In the longer term, we don't think it's actually going to impact us, on the basis that our occupancy levels are very strong and it's enabling us to provide strong premium charging on our products and that's offsetting the increased costs"
Forsyth reckon there is a strong few years coming up:
Their Forecast near-term development pipeline:
FY2018: 96 Units (company mentioned today it expects it to be 95, with 94 or about 99% of them delivered in the 2nd half)
FY2019: 101 units + 36 beds
FY2020: 175 units + 60 beds
FY2021: 70 units + 60 beds
So Forsyth reckon another near 600 on the way in 3 and a half years, and another 530 in planning stage (although about 92 of those 530 in planning stage may be included in Forsyth's 598 - so we'll just say in total well over 1000 units over the next 5 ish years).
Crazy that just 6 months ago, at FY2017, they had just 262 (or about half of what they have today) in "development construction activity"... Units/beds under construction: 14 in 2015, 24 in 2016, 262 in 2017, 506 in 2018... 700 in 2019?
Gets even more crazy when you consider they delivered just 5 (yes five) units or beds in 2015 and 2017 ("big year" in 2016 with 32 units delivered)... now they are delivering the previous 3 years added together multiplied by 2.1, in just the next 6 months. I don't usually put things in bold but that was so amazing I felt I had to.
On another note, I thought 95% was pretty amazing, but the care facility occupancy actually increased to 96% - basically full capacity (given the usual movements), and, as they have mentioned, "significantly" above industry average.
Finally, Won't bother going into the impressive margins (and numbers) of resales either... 33 in 2015, 149 in 2016, 166 in 2017, probably around 200 in 2018 (already half way there).
It is no wonder Forsyth reckon ARV is the most undervalued operator, although I'm sure OCA at 94c isn't far behind.
C'mon t_j show a bit more enthusiasm
SUM othe posters are more enthusiastic than you about their favourite company in this sector and give more compelling reasons to buy
You can do better mate, try a bit harder and even I might be convinced to become a shareholder
Interim has this bit - net implied value increased to $1.19 a share, up 1.6% in this financial year
What is this “net implied value”?
Just trying to make sense of their financials seeing t_j has failed in his duty to do so
Just before the recent big acquisition and rights issue ARV market cap was $431m
From the rights issue and payment to the vendor they have raised $93m of new capital
Market cap today is $420m - less than it was pre acquisition .....and they have taken on more debt
Half year NPAT was less than corresponding period last year
Don’t know what all this means but market value added declining seems to suggest the market is not too impressed at what’s going on
think my sums are right
Not a lot of sellers at the moment, sp in for an upgrade?
I don't usually use NPAT to determine how well one of the listed operators are doing, I didn't think you did either winner... I reckon they (the sector themselves) don't really trumpet this measure as the headline because we all know it includes bigly house gains... so I look at underlying: underlying EPS up 7%, margins on units growing nicely, and a very big 2nd half on the cards... sort of similar to Ryman who reported today (who also expect to have a bigger 2nd half - although not on the same bigly scale as ARV).
But wait there is more: RYM's margins are the lowest in years by the looks of it (ARV's are the highest ever) and ARV is (as I speculated earlier) just a few percentage points behind the all mighty R Y M. Remember also they raised capital at $1.15... share price has never finished been below that point since like a year ago, no worries!
Surprising really that the market likes Ryman's result so much, yet seemed unconcerned with Arvida's just a few days earlier (pushing RYM, who is already trading at elevated levels, to even higher elevated levels... crazy really)
Market seems to have re-rated ARV down a bit in recent months... not sure why because everything looks (and confirmed yesterday - is) pretty good.
I suppose it is no wonder Forsyth say it is the most undervalued in the sector!
(they reckon ARV is trading on a FY19 estimated PE of 12.1, while Ryman is a massive 63% higher at 19.7... even Summerset, the one that has the high gearing for the high growth, is higher at 12.8)
While the market wonders how to value ARV, holders and I will keep getting a 4% ish dividend (at today's price), the next 1.15c being paid just 10 days before Christmas - could the timing be any better?
Say you have a house in Auckland that increased in value from 1/2 mill to 1 mill over the last year
You haven’t sold so your underlying profit is zilch / zero
But your profit over the last year is 1/2 mill .....and your assets are worth 1/2 mill than a year go
Why use underlying profit?
But I can't go out and spend that half a million increase? So my underlying profit might as well be 0... it is no use to me now, if anything I will just have to pay more rates... a cash money outflow straight to Phil & Co's bank account
Why 'use' what you can't use?
But you worth 1/2 mill more and if I was going to buy you out wouldn't you want at least 1 mill ......put that in context of an ARV share valuation why real profits / book value / cash flows are a better guide to valuing them
Underlying profits a good measure of how they are doing operationally on a year by year basis
Don't think you will be convinced that underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing
You're right, I am not convinced underling profit multiples aren't really such a good thing... but I am convinced we will see a very strong 2nd half... market isn't convinced of anything by the looks of it which is weird because they are lapping up RYM's result
However, I would accept a $2.50 takeover offer for ARV or PEB
I think we will see a 'significant' lift in the fair value of completed investment properties and development land (and cash flows), once a full valuation is undertaken at the end of the year (which will include significantly more delivered properties - about 99% of the years deliveries in fact)
Time will tell
$1.20... the highest price in a month... Mr Market must be beginning to read throuh the interim report.
Clearly Mr Market has not read much of it because if it did, the share price would be much higher than $1.20
A profit is not a profit until its realized. The situation you describe is referred too in the industry as embedded value. You can get a good handle on forecasting future underlying profits from resales by looking at total embedded value in the balance sheet at any point in time and dividing by about 7 to give an indication based on historical churn rates of what the expected realization will be in the year ahead.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...rv.nzx-301617/ page 8
now what was ORA & DMF again ?
PT
All to do with all the new shares they have issued ....130 million extra since Sep16
They say everything is eps accretive so we must trust them
Still haven’t sussed why revaluations were so low in H1 - compared to pcp as well as to likes of Ryman and Summerset on a relative basis. They say the H1 $8.9m was mainly from recently acquired villages, does this suggest older villages not getting more valuable
Possibly does suggest older villages are not getting that much more valuable, but then again they haven't seen noticeable weakness... maybe they are just given the folk in Christchurch a better deal?
Embedded value still climbing and this 2nd half around 65 villas are to be delivered (the villas have 2x higher embedded value, as I'm sure you know, compared to serviced apartment... must mean something good) and begin sell down of these many villas this 2nd half (a large majority of the huge, by dog standards, 94 total deliveries expected this half)
Would not surprise me to see a 'jump' in fair value of investment properties in the 2nd half, not only due to more being delivered and sold, but also given in the 2017 financial year, 2nd half revaluations accounted for about 64% of the full year.
Although ARV is only up 4.6 ish percent this year, ARV's track record of delivering shareholder value, a fair bit via EPS accretive acquisitions, they've pretty good so far especially given they are the 'original dog'
sum other operators haven't even returned half a peanut, sorry half a percent, the last 52 weeks according to NZX's website
Another big off-market trade this morning to open. Looks like someone is accumulating on the sidelines?
ARV don't seem to have given any guidance for F18 except that he 3 new villages will add $9m of underlying profit
Anybody done any sums or have any idea what their actually underlying profit for F18 could be - a bit more specific than awesomely amazing would be appreciated.
With ARV delivering 99% of its villas and apartments and stuff this 2nd half, and the usual strong continuing resales of existing stuff (unlike sum operators), I'll let them off so they can focus on getting all the synergies and delivers sorted, before delivering a bumper profit (and outlook for the coming year) come the big day in 2018.
Management may even be considered generous giving everyone else a chance to get on board while ARV is still the cheapest operator on the NZX (and the recent trades would indicate time is running out)
Forsyth, reckon $30.7m underlying in 2018 full year (yes, a bigly 2nd half on the way - as I've mentioned already), jumping a massive third to $40.2m in 2019.
But be careful because Forsyth were pretty conservative... they thought ARV's half year would be just $11.0m underlying (it was actually $12.4m - a whooping 13% higher than Forsyth thought... maybe they are the ones buying even more for their clients or something?)
Forsyth thought RYM would deliver 85.0, they were nearly bang on as they actually delivered 85.2 underlying so they must be kinda good at estimating this sector, well estimating some, underestimating others anyway.
Opened up an old Forsyth report on Arvida back in the dark old dog days of July 28 2015 (when the share price was 87c)
They gave ARV a target price of $1.14... they thought underlying EPS would be:
2017: 6.6c (was actually 15.2% higher, being 7.6c)
2018: 6.8c (estimated to be 22.1% higher, being 8.3c - estimated on most recent report being November 22 2017)
2019: probably thought it would be 7.0c - in the most recent report they reckon it is going to be 38.6% higher - being 9.7c
Share price barely above the $1.14 they thought ARV would be at within 12 months of July 28 2015 (the $1.14 being on those dog like growth rates as well!)... shoot, must be cheapo
For the record, 1 year later, July 28 2016 the share price was $1.14... imagine if they are right this time around and ARV hit Forsyth's 22 November 2017 12 month target price of $1.61?!
Words can no longer explain how cheap ARV must be
OK running with Forbars forecast
Underlying profit F17 was $23.1 and Forbar guess is $30.7m
That means EPS goes from 7.7 cents in F17 (Arvida report) to about 10 cents in F18 (depending on how they calculated the weighted average number of shares)
Suppose not to bad but if Forbars guess allows for the $9m extra from the recent acquisitions (what Arvida) says not all that good.
Struggling to find a compelling reason to rush out and buy here .....
Don't worry, you're not the only one winner... Mr Market seems to be as well (although slowly coming around)
So I'll put it in earnings per shares so we can see how the acquisition impacts things, per share wise (which is the important part, right?)
Normalised EPS (cps) was 7.6c n 2017 according to Forsyth's recent report, they reckon it is going to be 8.3c a share in 2018, so that means growth of about 10% per share, not bad given a very quiet 1st half, deliveries wise anyway... it is no wonder then that they reckon EPS in 2019 is going to be 9.7c, a healthy 14 and a bit percent growth from the prior year (and in 2020 10.8c a solid 11 and a bit percent growth from the prior year)
Man, 2018 looks to be the quietest year in the next 3 years... no wonder the share price has been (so far) pretty 'quiet' as well... will start making alot more noise (relayed in the form of gains) in the following years it would seem... maybe ARV is just a bit to steady and solid for you to be tempted winner? Maybe a dabble in the famed xero could be better? much more exciting with all the unexpected disruption, announcements and changes etc, much more so than boring earnings per share accretive acquisitions anyway
... oh and forsyth are conservative, well have been in the past anyway... they can't predict when ARV's excellent, and proven (sort of), management will buy another EPS accretive village and/or greenfield site with high quality development opportunities.
The much revered 4-traders have ARV net income (npat) going backwards fir the next few years. Must be wrong - can’t trust free stuff on the internet
http://www.4-traders.com/ARVIDA-GROU...84/financials/
You are excited eh t_j but I still can’t see a compelling reason to buy
You mention Xero, nah not for me but finally extracted myself from FLX with a profit and that now all goes into even more Pushpay ...... much better prospects than ARV and at least the market likes them.
250k through this morning @ 121. Creeping north on relatively big volumes.
Nobody selling now till $1.27 - and even then there ain't many sellers.
You sound surprised winner?
I am sure not... still more than 10c before we get close to a record close, and Forsyth still reckon another good 36 cents can be added to the share price (+ about 5c in dividends) between now and mid November next year, and they are the conservative ones remember... let the run continue.
Mr Market must have decided to read the interim report a bit closer
Hey t_j the share price is falling
Mr Market must have decided to read the interim report a bit (more) closer....and started having doubts
Friday last week the share price wasn't over $1.20 - now we are well into the 20's and friday is still to come, hard to believe that a couple weeks $1.20 looked like a distant struggle - today we are at $1.24 - probably just a few people taking advantage of the strong run, good on them.
Might be your chance to get in while it is still over 40c below where forsyth reckon it will be in 11 ish months.
Appears "momentum builds" for the share price, nice to see a slow and steady rise on good volume lately.
The ARV chart at the moment is a beautiful thing....
As always though, DYOR.
Attachment 9426
Still a tad ( I mean a tad ). in the red with this one ..
Tomorrow .. Tomorrow.. :-)))
Arvida — the unsung hero of the NZX
It’s full potential will be recognised one day
ARV share price still about the same as it was when they announced the acquisition of 3 villages last September
Market thinking that not positive long term for ARV or something
That Village on the Park in Wellington needs to improve — haven’t heard a good word about it for a long time. Expanding though as they doing a lot of earthworks at the moment.
Do Arvida have a dividend reinvestment scheme? thanks
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315395
Pretty nice to see, I thought the share price weakening in recent times was possibly because people weren't sure if they could deliver on a big 2nd half - today's announcement shows they are going to deliver a massive uplift in the 2nd half. I note in the half year presentation they mentioned "Expected new sale settlements of 70 units in 2H18", that language has now changed to "Arvida is on track to settle at least 70 new unit sales during the second half", maybe the market missed it because their share price actually went down slightly (then again, could be the juicy dividend, being paid in just over a week I suppose).
I suppose the proof will be in the pudding (aka when half year results are released in late May)
You'd think that if sum others can miss their building guidance (or arguably, barely meet it), yet still have a share price jump after results are released, then others who look like they will exceed it, should have a share price skyrocket.
Sentiment can be a funny thing - Arvida are developing a record of delivering on what management say which I think ultimately will see the share price perform better. It's always worth remembering it is business performance that drives the share price long term and not the other way around. I've been long for 2 years and have collected 8-9 cents of dividends in that time and await a stronger share price that reflects their execution of business development but we will see I guess.
Arvida's put out their "investor news"...what more do they need to do?
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/315544
Struggling to work out why the sentiment is against them...even with higher wages, their story still looks like a pretty good one.
mr market will come around mate. great buying at these levels imo. expecting a solid result on the 29th May.
The NTA is basically at the current SP, compared with the likes of SUM who's SP is double it's NTA, looks like good buying at the moment.PS-Would buy some but don't want to dilute my milk holding.
I have a target value of around $1.65. Based on long-term discounted earnings cashflows, with some allowance for high investment costs of the recent past (ie, free cash flow over the last 2 years has been negative thanks to all their investing). Not a horrible story though, as their investment has basically been about growth...so when you strip out the growth investment and focus on "base capex" only, I actually come up with a higher number than $1.65, I'm simply then applying a "risk factor" to allow for some variance between what I think is growth capex vs what actually IS growth capex.
Will be VERY interested in the result.
sum other listed retirement operators have a bit more than 2x more assets than ARV, yet their share price is nearly 6x higher - sure it is has grown faster previously by a fair margin (although I think the gap will narrow fast over the coming years), but that is sum difference in valuation that is for sure.
The May result will certainly be of interest
It can't get any worse surely - I don't know what Mr Market is thinking giving arvida a share price under $1.20, despite only positive updates recently.
Forsyth reckon its worth $1.52
Dam cheap at $1.19
you always make me squint to read your last sentence T_J!
surprised a certain someone hasn't got his paws into this one...
Hello did someone call the Beagle's name ? Its been such a "paw" performer over the last year I'm starting to wonder if there might be some value at the current price.
Initial thoughts is TA gives zero scope for encouragement right at the minute.
Where do people see 2H FY18 underlying EPS ? I am running the snout and paws over this but want to hear others thoughts first.
Where do people see FY19 Underlying EPS ?
Anyone got any broker research they can send me on this one, please PM me and I'll give you my e.mail address.
I just picked up more MET and ARV to put away long term as I feel both now undervalued. 1.19c for ARV is stupid cheap I feel so topped up. They are in the same market as the rest doing similar things. Yes there is some execution risk but seriously cant be hard to sit at the end of an aging population and catch their fair share...
agree TA looks pretty average - & ARV has tracked sideways for most of the year.
buyer depth is also not looking too flash either; so punters may be able to pick-up holdings slightly cheaper on the current weakness…
confident that earnings will be higher in the coming results and provided they don’t drown under the recent issue, I will be hoping for medium-high single digit EPS growth based on the contributions from the three recently acquired villages (EPS accretive) and the delivery of the 94 new units (guidance just confirmed Monday).
plenty in the pipeline too with Ana Bay/Park Lane for 1Q19 and the Park FY20 (with strong sector tailwinds, plus other opportunities).
while I don’t see ARV being able to match the return of SUM others, the 70% of earnings that come from the care segment makes it much more of a defensive hold perhaps akin to some energy/infrastructure stocks, which should attract support.
I believe any uplift in wage costs will be able to be passed on.
While I am not as bullish as Forsyth, I do believe there is some good value here (maybe 15%ish?).
a good long-term set-and-forget hold any which way you want to slice it though - and a reasonable entry price at these levels?
Forsyth's thoughts:
(1H 18 underlying EPS of 3.7c) 2H 18 underlying EPS of 4.6 cps = 8.3cps FY 18 - 14.3 underlying PE
FY19 underlying EPS 9.0 - FY19 forward PE of 13.2 (for comparision: RYM is at 22.0, SUM at 16.6, Metlife at 14.5 and OCA at 13.1)
Implied book value of NZ$1.19 and I won't even go into cash dividend yields too much as you already guessed it: ARV is on top (yes, even 7% higher cash dividend yield than OCA at 99c...)
Disclosure: I have put in an order for more ARV shares, despite having 'too many' already.
Seeing this reach $1.60 sometime in the next year would not even been remotely surprising to me.
What is RYM growing their EPS at again?
The dividend (not peanuts) makes up for it somewhat for me anyway
Growth picking up in 2020 and into 2021, a 250% increased in units/beds to be delivered in 2020 and thats without considering over 600 units/beds in planning, but yet to be consented. Meanwhile, growth probably continuing to slow for sum others... I wouldn't be surprised if in 2021 and/or 2022 we see a similar EPS growth rate for arvida as the almighty summerset
bold call by me, nearly as bold as when I called arvida the fastest growing share price a few years back
Forbar's EPS estimates look fairly reasonable to me. There's not nearly as much empirical evidence to work through and development margins are really an unknown at this stage but after a number of assumptions and estimates I arrived at $32-34m underlying profit this year, approx. 8.2 cps at the top end.
I'm not 100% convinced all the increased wage settlement rates will be recovered and see this as a key risk.
Forbar would have spent a ton more time on this than me so my preliminary thinking to form a first impression is simply to accept their earnings estimates which gives underlying earnings growth in the high single figures this year and next.
Forward PE on EPS of 8.3 is 14.3. I have SUM with a proven track record of EPS growth averaging 45% per annum since listing on a forward PE for 2018 of 15.2. which is only a very small multiple premium for such an incredibly attractive well proven track record of growth.
In my opinion OCA most closely resembles ARV's business model and they recently confirmed they're on track to meet IPO guidance of 8.42 cps so on 99 cents this puts them on a forward PE of just 11.75. I think SUM's business model is less susceptible to wage cost pressures due to their predominant independent living model.
Other observations. I think OCA have a significantly higher percentage of consented developments in the pipeline and there's more potential for PE expansion with OCA than ARV due to its present lower multiple. I think OCA could surprise, as could ARV but its early days to make a call on either of these relatively new companies.
I think the slightly higher PE of SUM is well worth paying a premium for considering their six year track record of growing earnings at frankly what has been an astonishing pace.
My first glance impression is I think ARV have a lot to prove with their development model before the market can accord them a higher PE.
In the meantime I see it as a slow and steady player and shareholders are likely to enjoy a ~ 5.5% gross dividend yield in the year ahead and high single digit Underlying earnings growth. Trading at slightly under asset backing, (adjusted asset backing as at 30 Sept 2017 was $1.19) its probably a pretty reasonable hold for the medium term but I have a significant investment in SUM and OCA neither of which I would reduce to add to ARV based on my first impressions.
I remain of the view that RYM's PE is expensive but is probably warranted relative to ARV, less so relative to SUM and OCA....well that's my 2 cents worth and good luck to holders. P.S. I don't like MET and have little confidence in their management or their development model. Further, I think they will find the remediation cost to existing buildings will FAR exceed the costs they've publicly estimated so a significant discount to NTA is well and truly warranted with them.
Interesting thoughts that are appreciated. Agree ARV (and OCA really) have a bit of proving to do with their development model - ARV are, in my view, already beginning to prove they can integrate other villages and develop well - although the latter is in early stages. I would also not be selling OCA for ARV (maybe, at current levels, a bit of SUM - if I was a holder - as I see SUM's growth rate dramatically slowing as they try 'catch up' in the 'care department')
In my 'high level' view, over time, villages like ARV and OCA, with the full continuum of care, will become more attractive than the 'big prisons' that is RYM, SUM and MET (MET especially in my view) and therefore people will be willing to pay a higher amount (eg in care fees or to purchase a unit), hence offsetting the relatively higher cost of smaller, more niche villages, with a far greater continuum of care. Time will ultimately tell if this 'high level' view of mine is right or not.
Yes I see SUM's growth rate at 20-25% this year compared to 44% last year. 2019 could surprise to the upside with an increase in build rate.
From a TA perspective SUM is a compelling hold as it is from a FA perspective based on the substantially superior growth rate.
I prefer to hold stocks where FA and TA indicators are in sync.
The saving grace with ARV and I think its most attractive aspect is the relatively high nearly fully imputed dividend yield at I would estimate about 5.5% gross this coming year. This yield is something I would see as very safe considering 70% of their earnings are from their care model. Effectively shareholders are being paid a pretty good apparently quite safe yield to participate in a company with reasonable growth prospects operating in a sector with strong demographic tailwinds for the next 20-30 years and this on a fairly reasonable PE multiple. This company's characteristics could have strong appeal to retired investors in my opinion.
Summing up. All things considered I think ARV is a pretty good investment proposition. I think the list of companies in the NZX50 that offer a less compelling proposition is fairly long one but doesn't include OCA or SUM. I'm focusing on higher growth companies but I can see some attraction with ARV so will keep an eye on it.
Ive taken a position in ARV now, at the price SUM others are currently at, I can't see the point in buying, as I see no more, or less upside going forward than ARV and OCA.
Brought more at $1.19 today, taking my holding from L to XL
$1.19 is a 'funny' price for me... on 20 May 2016 I 'went big' into HBL at the same price for similar reasons: solid growth, solid dividend, good industry dynamics, good management, and fairly conservative.
Similar to ARV lately, the share price then with HBL had kinda stagnated for the past year and a half before (and relatively soon after May) steadily climbing well over the $2 mark.
Here's hoping ARV starts that same solid and steady climb.
and starts to give HBL a run for its money ;)
Up again today - $1.23 now
Maybe $1.19 was really just too cheap
Be $1.30 AGAIN this week I reckon
Don't forget it hit $1.39 once so not heading into uncharted waters ......once it gets to $1.40 all blue sky ahead ....and then it will finally catch up with HBL
No worries here ....there's little that can go wrong .....top management, bedding down acquisitions not yet price in, strong development pipeline and all that sort of stuff
t_j --- you need to keep on buying if you want the price to go up
No point buying at 119 and then stopping .... ARV needs the likes of to keep on buying to build momentum
topped up at closing as well.
You guys not buying enough ..... got to get some positive momentum going ....soon, or else it will be back to 110 ...or lower
As someone new to retirement villages - why do you guys see Arvida as so valuable? Having gone through the reports, it looks like their actual profit is not so high compared to the market cap. A significant amount of the profit is from real estate value changes which skews the PE ratio a little (especially since I imagine that they won't be selling their land anytime soon? Does this raise the cost of apartments that they sell though?).
Additionally, they said that rising employee costs would be an issue through this year.
Also, I might just not know how to read the reports, but I couldn't see any of their income going back into development projects, it looked like it was just funded on loans.
Really interested in responses.
Back to price last seen in November last year
Not surprising
Hmmm certainly not my best performing share, but pays a pretty good dividend for a retirement stock so I'm happy with that.
Should be just over a month before the full year result is announced. I'm expecting some good things, but the market doesn't seem to know what to expect - but with a share price barely ever trading at or above $1.20 these days, clearly not expecting much...
Time for ARV to smash it out the park and surprise again I say
Good to see this one slowly getting some juice in on the way to results. Got worried there for a bit!
We’re hoping to move to an Arvida retirement village very shortly, will have to increase my shareholding in the company.