"My Food bank" is surely the best play on words so far...where many a new punter will be heading this weekend.
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"My Food bank" is surely the best play on words so far...where many a new punter will be heading this weekend.
Good to have OGG on board.
Will there be a takeover, or a takeaway?
MFB = My Foolish Bet by the stags?
Maybe Future Buy
Who's noticed the new thread title?
what a hoot!!!
Those Funned Managers will be seeing the error of their ways.
No more gorging for them.
Attachment 12366
... stag on the menu ...
Poor old Winner has gone quiet.
He must be losing.
Could be simmering..
Is this launch on its way to The Scumbag of the day Award?
Remember the Company floated to process Possum skins?
No, but they are both stunned in the headlights..
Is winner69 really bought into this one after all the warnings on this thread?
Just back from oysters and chips on the beach ..... no tsunami ....and the seagulls got a few chips .... their squawking reminded me of some on ST
Nearly choked laughing when a beagle who was having a little paddle got caught up in some seaweed and get swamped by a wave (on a little one) and panicked and its owner had to rescue it and in doing so fell in the tide - nothing like a distraught owner with a wet beagle
Bought s a few more NFB when I got home ...not many.
Don't worry about me - it'll turn out fine
Actually, I think there has been a mistake with the menu instructions.
They said use a Skillet, but the unskilled have jumped out of the frying pan, into the Fire!
I don't like the business too.
But Milford Asset hold the Substantial Shares brought me the attention on this companyˆˆ.
Let see what is going on!
You're not a phan?
Oh my goodness, I hope you gave that Beagle owner some trauma counselling...seeing one's million dollar dog in strife is deeply traumatizing.
Speaking of being in trouble or staying out of it...Fortunately I am blessed with a good nose for B.S. and am a strong swimmer so its not a case of "My Fleeced or Floundering Beagle" with this listing :cool:
Nice work on the thread name change Winner.
Bit of a concern that it’s below IPO price on day one — even OCA managed to close at its IPO price on first day .... even though a few sniffed out the B S and concluded the forecasts were just that and concluded ‘you cannot list on fancy pants multiples’ because of inflated growth forecasts you can take with a grain of salt etc etc
Oceania turned out OK .... MFB could do the same ....one needs to be just a bit objective
You are a Magician OGG, totally wasted on here, but dont go away all the same.
I would say we have all have had a good afternoon of entertainment, win or lose.
Looks like its one for the Rainbow Community now.
Definitely a New World for most.
Yahoo finance shows MFb up $1.69 for the day, percentage gain 2816.67 percent... flippin missed out again 😄
I thought that $1.60 would've been a good issue price and I still stick with that. It could be a good boring dividend payer.
Unfortunately sellers were too greedy and are getting bad headlines on day 1. They also got a few million dollars more so maybe it paid off but it really doesn't look good and erodes trust.
I'm slightly concerned what effect it might have on the most passionate customers. MFB worked pretty hard to get customers to buy in. Now they're underwater by about 10%. How passionate are these customers going to be now after being sold cold leftovers instead of haute cuisine?
What's the thesis?
Easily replicated business with no growth prospects. I guess they could screw suppliers a little more but there is only so much blood you can get from a potato. Maybe they can differentiate via their recipes (jokes). Aside from that, this is going the way it was always going to go. This is about the owners cashing up and getting out.
A big day for many.
Stage managed finish I would suggest at $1.74, but the VWAP at $1.7039 b4 that does not lie.
$8.21M has been consumed by new buyers , @ 8% discount overall.
Was it a special, or a clearance?
Next week will confirm.
Dont go hungry in the meantime.
Yes I agree - there has been a pretty good campaign to attract people who may never have invested in shares before to participate in this IPO and own part of a business they know and trust.
For many people their first day of being an investor = OMG I'll never do this again. While it's extremely common to not instantly make a profit on shares you just bought, not having the support of the market and losing money is rather bad PR for a household brand, and MFB will need to do something to restore the trust of their own customers who are now also shareholders.
Disclosure: reluctant shareholder, devoted customer
Old mutton dressed / priced up like fresh spring lamb. It will leave a bad and dry taste in consumers mouths as they will feel duped after being urged time and again to "tuck in". Little did they realise that they were the ones on the menu and are ostensibly like lambs to the slaughter...
What realistic opportunities are there for cutting cost of direct produce & ingredients are there ?
Produce seasonal - price fluctuates - many perishable lines with limited chiller use by date
Meat & other products - in many instances wholesale price is market driven as well ..
Aside from volume discounts / and possibly a bit of customer shafting on content volume in the bag
doing things a bit better - is potential for raw ingredient costs coming in even possible ? ;)
Okay of course if the job wasn't being done efficiently in the first place .. maybe .. ;)
Those in the tucker game will have some ideas on this I guess..
the effective SP certainly saw some high effective growth .. well for founders & up to time IPO mutterings were on the table .. ;)
the Gattung & Fund's stakes for beneficial / Retirement / Greedy interests yielded some very some substantial growth..
Will that do ? ;)
If it doesn't fly - will they be as fast to reimburse, if for example the new investor serf class onboard aren't happy
with things, or will it take throwing a class action or two & large paper bag at them to sort it out ? ;)
Blendy, as you know..It's extremely common to instantly make a profit on shares on day 1 of IPO'd shares in other markets..
NZ with its tiny capital markets, with very few significant entities prepared to come to market, appears to have listing brokers primarily operating on behalf of the vendor of the securities....IMO.
Add another one to Jarden (was FNZ Capital) & Forsyth Barr’s string of IPO failures.
This one has some of the hallmarks of the Feltex IPO :
- retail investors getting stuffed with stock,
- PE players cleaning up mostly
and
- the little money raised relatively for the company being used to pay dividends to make the offer ‘dividend yield’ attractive.
Why bother?
Had the same feel as Feltex on day one too. Furrbarr stuffed as many Feltex shares as they could into clients accounts for which they had full management control. $1.50 or less coming up, I reckon. Anyway...I love a good trainwreck so I added these to my "Trainwreck" watchlist...they're sitting just above Synlait... AIR tops the list though...that's going to be spectacular to say the least !
If it's an IPO then run as fast as you can in the opposite direction and walk back slowly with your cash in your pocket.
Have we not learned this by now..?
Good luck. Once burned...never again.
Glad most of you had a most enjoyable day. I admire you ability to only pick winners
The only thing that didn't go to plan was that I assumed there would be a lot more greater fools than there were
More action one way or the other - at least MFB didn't go bust and they live to fight another day
The most galling thing today is that I lost more $s on HLG than I did on MFB
Until you restore that cat on your profile, you will only be a part time Winner, lol
How could the issue be heavily over-subscribed but according to the commentary, too many shares were offered?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ind...ag-disappoints
"Stephen Bennie of Castle Point Funds called the debut disappointing, although not a disaster.
Investors had been prepared to accept a price below the IPO, a sign that too many shares had been offered during the placement.'
Winner using a bit of reverse psychology, while he was in fact backing up his truck to load up.
He thought he was feinting, but he blo0dy near fainted when he got back from his oysters and chips, and saw the share price!
He can be sure his sins will find him out, eh Beagle?
I'm sure he wasn't the only one with indigestion on Friday. The question is will Winner suck it up, realise he's been duped and cut his losses or will he double down, (or much more) and chase it like the punter he is ? My money is on him taking a big punt when he thinks the shares have found a floor.
they still sinking -- bag sizes may be needing to be shrunk by a further 2.3% so far on the
back of last week's indigestion .. ;)
may be quite a few new punters with a dose of guts ache coming on, out of toying with this IPO .. ;)
I note the change in title of this thread......:closed eyes:
What I found interesting in the prospectus was the chart showing how rapidly the market for people-who-have-the-motivation-to-cook-but-not-to-shop is growing in Australia. Nowhere does it actually mention any plans to enter the Australian market however?
It's as flawed as my ultimately tragic plan to date the prettiest girl at school by never actually asking her out. A slight oversight in the participatory aspect of success.
They did expand to Australia but opted out after maybe couple of years as I assume not profitable. There have been a couple of attempts to partner up here (coffee and wine) that are no longer happening AFAIK. However there are a number of long term partnerships with brands and suppliers at the smaller, artisan, sustainable or free range end of the scale. Probably been good boosts for those suppliers, has to be a positive. They have announced new possible lines to take advantage of their very good logistics capability.
I like that they try things, and only continue if they work.
I see this as an income play for a while, but have seen a tsunami of Hello Fresh advertising lately. I guess taking advantage of the IPO buzz to grab some market share.
Quite possibly not articulated very clearly, but I suspect that they are are trying to suggest that what has occurred in Aussie is likely to occur in this market too.
Aussie is arguably more at the leading edge of setting direction for F & B trends. Traditionally NZ tends to lag Aussie by 1-2 years in all things cuisine related.
I feel a song coming on....
One of the best all time album's...trouble is you can get yourself into all sorts of trouble with a Momentary Lapse of Reason https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ykz6w2ldoFw
Confusion can come in to it also.
Confusion is a good marketing tool.
I think has been said before somewhere..
https://youtu.be/5Qh9XC1IVhM
A bit more on trouble, and doubling down.
To be honest I think HelloFresh are the main reason for starting to cash out and settle up.
Mike Jagger had a bit of fun recently
https://ultimateclassicrock.com/mick...ll-song-tease/
Proverbs 16.18 comes to mind
But I am awe of you all for never ever been a loser ....even a small one now and again
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...IBXVXJXXAD5BE/
Paywalled
“A My Food Bag spokesperson declined to say how many of its customers took part in the float, although it has been reported that more than 10,000 customers and staff registered their interest.”
A big admission of failure to take care of customers but didn’t the original shareholders do well - successfully selling shares even better than the food dishes!
So as a rule of thumb, if it sounds like an IPO and smells like a curry, run like hell.
"The bitter taste of poor quality lingers long after the sweet burst of bagging a bargain"..proverbs:old man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZPc7DVbgjI
Plenty of warnings - plenty of red flags.
Plus this :
Of the $55m raised for the company, $19.7m were for Dividends for F21* and F22, & $16.8m were for IPO expenses!
So $36.5m or 2/3rd of the money raised for the company's own use were for non-productive & non-growth purposes!
*$13.3m dividends were paid using bank debt and then, repaid through IPO proceeds.
Shareholders should rush out and buy a whole year's worth of Quick Eze for the ongoing pain and indigestion this no growth company will give them. BIG BIG difference between the price of fresh spring lamb and tough old mutton, a fact that's yet to be reflected in the share price in my opinion.
No growth companies should list on a PE of 11 in my opinion which is half the PE they listed on. That takes fair value back to $1.85 / 2 = 92.5 cents per share in my opinion, assuming the forecasted figures are reasonable and achievable, ((I have serious doubts whether they are).
Everyone makes mistakes and nobody gets every decision right. Its a hard skill to acquire...the one where you recognize you made a mistake, cut your losses and move on. This forum is littered with examples of people who do the exact opposite and can't accept a loss and double (or much, much worse), down and suffer the consequences.
Interesting quote from Joshua Wang who has been doing some impressive analysis (fundamental and technical) on Youtube.
"They really timed this IPO well on the back of the pandemic tailwind and euphoric market. They intend to pay a dividend at a payout ratio of 90%, which means not a lot of reinvestment going into this business. I'm not paying more than 84 cents for this company!"
Bacon Bowler stuffed it up letting on forecasts were a bit light .....beating prospectus numbers in May is a give .....and no chance of a surprise earnings upgrade now......so all the exciting things to keep share price going up has gone.
Even I said it would probably end up like Metro Glass over time ...after it had gone to 230 like Metro did.
As you are always right and never wrong no doubt one day the share price will be 95 cents
Pity the expected greater fools didn’t turn up .....still might though ;)
I make mistakes like everyone else does but I try and keep my batting average up as high as possible by avoiding the obvious and as many of the less obvious pitfalls I can possibly foresee. Thankfully the good Lord gave me a pretty good nose for finding dog food and sniffing out trouble, (for which I am very grateful).
Yes, I think this is quite likely to follow the share price trajectory of MPG, (albeit without the initial pop you were hoping for like what happened with that listing).
For me I wouldn’t own it at any price. That’s not because it’s worthless. It’s because it’s not worth wasting time and energy on a company that is likely to give me grief from an investment perspective. You only have so much energy and time and I think it’s better spent on higher quality businesses.
The bigger fools could be the shareies army but I think they are a bit gun shy on newly listed co's after losing a truck load on the Harmoney and Rua Bioscience listings. I cant see the army coming to holders rescue on this one.
For what it's worth I thought there was a good chance for a stag on listing day, especially when all the news about scaling came out. There was lots of talk about people buying on the FB groups. Hyped up.
Was a bit surprised it was sold off so quick. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Have a look at the turnover on ASX - so pathetically low that it’s clear that even the dingoes over there smelled a dead rat and avoided the issue.
Many years ago I was the only punter in the whole world to have lost money on Heartland
I bought some at the then all time high of 98 cents (only trade at that price at the time) and the share price drifted back to something like 93/94 cents. Took a while for me to lose thar pr record.
Turned out OK
Actually it's a fact, low'n slow cooked mutton or hogget always beats lamb, but it's a metaphor for what might unfold for MFB.
Who knows really Scrunch, the market will decide what it's worth. Currently that's unfolding, far be it for me to pick a low but instinct tells me this was an overpriced IPO and there is more disappointment to come.
That said, there was some price basing today from a technical sentiment perspective. Early days, let's see how it goes, easier said from a non-holding though from who might be interested to buy into a plateau.
Your instinct for not being the subject matter of the low slow roasting appear to be working pretty well ;) P.S. Slow roasted lamb shanks are one of this dog's most favorite tucker. Just show me where to "tuck in" to that.
Speaking of slow roastings...market is down for 6 weeks in a row. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...for+8+Mar+2021
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...arket-softness
Spinning the tale that it's all the market's fault - everything is just great at MFB so W69 & other punters should relax, sp will be back up to $1.85 in no time.
Then it's all but blue skies, smoked salmon, caviar & champagne from there.
Good to see Jarden & Harbour (using some of the very substantial fees they earned from the IPO) to support the sp - buying 2.7m shares or 42% of all shares traded in first 2 days of trading.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...848/342039.pdf
If they keep supporting the sp, there could be an opportunity when window dressing day comes around on 31 March 2021 that punters may get out at IPO price?
Window is going to be very small so get ready to go!
Well yes but as you say a truck load have been bought by the borkers, below IPO and they look like they’ve been popping up the SP as a result, so they have a pile of shares more than they planned on and are the sellers into any uplift. Mums and dads have no idea what’s going on.
MFB is precisely the sort of stock retail punters should not invest in - huge amount of goodwill, huge profits for the promoters and mostly based upon name recognition.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the...-bag-ipo-offer
"Why are these owners selling? Where's the vote of confidence that this company will grow, and its share price will grow?"
There are a lot of variables in this offering: the IPO happening at the height of the meal kit industry, which has enjoyed a huge boom since the advent of Covid-19.
Additionally, while My Food Bag was the first in this market, competitors are starting to circle: German giant HelloFresh has entered the market with a hiss and a roar, and supermarket chains are also getting in on the ready meal kit action.
On the other hand the boom in online app-based investment platforms like Sharesies and Robinhood means companies with high name recognition and favourability, like My Food Bag, are well-placed to win casual investors.
Agree 100%, pricing and timing look extremely opportunistic. Vaccine roll-out and new competition could see MFB dramatically undershoot their very optimistic FY22 forecast.
I expect a steady downtrend steadily gnawing away at investors capital.
I reckon investors should simply suck it up, eat the dead rat sandwich, swallow the loss and move on.
Just a get rich quick scheme for prior owners. The gossip is that companies list on the SE to get access to capital for expansion, or the other reason that is getting far to common and abhorrent. (ie making money for existing shareholders and promoters, at the expense of unsuspecting investors). Wouldn't touch these with a long burnt stick. The IPO only got off the ground because of low interest rates, and the personalities involved. I can see this settling down at 50 cents in a year or two.
Actually, when I was in Vietnam, I had to eat some dead rats.
It is survivable, I come out the other side.
We went on an Air New Zealand mystery luxury lodge weekend deal many years ago that included dinner. Ended up having gourmet rabbit pie at a small boutique lodge in Cromwell, (closest I have come to eating vermin). Henry Blowfield gave an after dinner speech recalling his memories as a cricket commentator. Nice bottle of wine...was a very pleasant evening.
Not much luxury to the lodge but it was quaint and interesting, as was the cuisine.
Paying gourmet meal prices to be served a dead rat sandwich on the other hand is most unappealing.