Just doing what they've successfully done with their Northland operation. Makes sense to release some of the capital tied up there but still get the fruit through the packhouse and sales in Aussie
Printable View
Just doing what they've successfully done with their Northland operation. Makes sense to release some of the capital tied up there but still get the fruit through the packhouse and sales in Aussie
12c divvy just announced and based on current price its about 6.3% gross yield, not bad.
I See(ka)
and that will be on previous years figures wont it unless they update that very quickly indeed.
since you posted this the price has drifted down more and actually has been down trending for a yr and a half now from the highs wouldnt surprise me at some stage if it tests those lows at 4.25 again. wonder if the drought in aus is causing problems and obtaining water rights? costa group in aus has been smashed as well as numerous other companies because of the drought. anyway do you hold still?
Not sure about short term oscillations - this is a cyclical industry, but if I look at the chart than I find it difficult to correlate that with the doom and gloom described in your post. Still looks like a long term uptrend to me:
Attachment 10880
I think Seeka is a reasonably managed company in an industry with lots of future potential. The need for fresh fruit can only increase ... and while climate change no doubt will make the game more interesting, all players will be effected by it.
Do I still hold? Well yes, this is in my view bottom drawer material. Sure - my SEK holding is at current roughly 8% less worth than 6 months ago, but if I compare the Seeka share price with some other much discussed shares, than it is basically a haven of stability.
I prefer to sell cyclical's when they are up ... and buy them when they are down, i.e. now might be a better time to buy.
And now you mentioned it - have a look at the RSI (red potato below):
Attachment 10881
- you well might have identified a bottom and it is all up from here ... who knows?
From stats nz:
Kiwifruit prices were at an all-time high in December 2019, with prices for seasonal fruit and vegetables also up, Stats NZ said today.
“Kiwifruit prices rose 32 percent in December to a weighted average price of $8.27 per kilo, an all-time high,” acting consumer prices manager James Griffin said.
“This compares with $4.24 in December last year.”
I came across this article from 24 Dec 2019, a bit superficial, but it sounds like conditions are still managable for Seeka in Australia:
"Seeka Australia are looking forward to a good kiwifruit season despite the very hot and dry conditions."
"Next year we are forecasting a volume of 73,000 cartons of Rico® pears, this represents a 25% increase in marketable volume from the 2019 season."
https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9...-comes-online/
Does anyone have suggestions of good places to look for news about the company, other than its infrequent announcements to the NZX?
Cheers for posting the link ... and no, I am afraid I didn't found yet a regular and freely accessible source of information about Seeka. Anybody else?
Obviously you can check the industry regulars which may or may not report about Seeka as well.
https://www.hortnz.co.nz/news-events...he-orchardist/
or
https://kiwifruitjournal.co.nz
both are subscription based (cost money) and I don't know how useful they are for Seeka investors. You might find them though in a library close to you.
During the fire season in Australia it might as well pay to watch the fire reports for Bunbaartha.
Good news - it is raining in Bunbaartha! This reduces the local fire risk for our crop ... and obviously will help with the irrigation:
https://live.harvest.com/?hsn=12060&grp=Main
and more to come:
https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=...bartha+weather
... add to that the rising Kiwifruit prices and we should sit nice and fluffy :);
... ah yes, forgot - somebody on this thread asked previously about water rights for irrigation. Here is an interesting summary about Seekas Australian operation:
https://www.freshplaza.com/article/2...-in-australia/
Goulburn storages (including Lake Eildon which is their main source for irrigation at 41%) still between 36 and 98% full. Should be sufficient through to harvest time (which starts in February), particularly given the rain.
https://www.g-mwater.com.au/water-re...storage-levels
"Bonnie Doon", the Kerrigan's holiday house from the movie "The Castle" is on the shores of Lake Eildon.
https://www.bonniedoon.net/home/sigh.../13-the-castle
Quote:
The little guy, being the Kerrigan family who had a holiday house in Bonnie Doon and came regularly to enjoy the serenity and the power lines which span Lake Eildon.
I tripled my small holding on this today. Buying into a weak phase of the general market and it could well be that the long slow decline is now over with a hammer candle right at the 78.6% retracement point of $ 4.59 and a upwards blip after that to confirm. This pattern is a perfect bullish gartley as the earlier correction changed direction at exactly the 61.8% retracement
Attachment 10972
Technically this trade would have a stop loss at $4.20 but I wouldnt neccessarily act on that unless it was a weekly close figure for example.
They will report in Feb and all expectations are that it should be okay or even good (there is no change to guidance)
I've also re-entered the SH register Peat, after 18 month of absence. Feel this is now looking good a again with a good harvest expected this autumn and the uncomfortably high leverage well attended to by selling lots of orchards in Northland. Australia still needs lots of work to make it as good as it should be but I'm now again content enough to take a modest holding.
Not quite sure I see a big virus impact on either production nor the sale of fresh fruit (though, demand might well increase), but yes - it certainly will be interesting to see how this years Australian harvest (quality and volume) looks like.
The effects of global warming including the extended Australian bush fire season might well require some adaptation for all fruit growers ...
virus have no effect on nz production , if the virus got worse it just be on being able to move the product to china or even around china therefore sales would be down in this market. guess they can just put it in storage what they cant export which i think a lot of exporters are already doing.
A Victorian winemaker tells me that they have had rain at the right time and in the right amounts for grape growing - no problems from the drought or wildfires.
I don't know what that means for pears and kiwifruit production however but illustrates that Australia is a big place and not everywhere has been affected by the wildfires.
NZ on high alert for stink bug invasion
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...k-bug-invasion
probably concern for seeka and scales
Well, yes - but they say it took in Italy roughly 10 years for them to become a problem and apparently there is as well a natural enemy of these bugs which MAF already cleared for introduction.
No need to panic yet :):Quote:
The brown marmorated stinkbug originates from Asia, where its numbers are kept in check by predators such as the samurai wasp, which lays its eggs inside the eggs of the stinkbug. About the same size as an ant, and with none of the annoying habits of the common wasps that dominate our summer, the samurai wasp has approval for release in New Zealand if a stinkbug invasion should occur.
... somebody sold me yesterday some more for $4.25. Quite pleased.
Last year the 12c March dividend was announced on the 21st Feb. This year's announcement is probably close.
Do you reckon there is any chance they will reduce or hold back the dividend because of the potential effect of Cobid-19?
Which effects would you think the virus might have on their business? Seeka is exporting into many countries, eating fresh fruit is highly recommended to improve anybody's immune system ... and the Chinese have said that they are going to prioritize processing perishable food at their ports ...
Yes the Chinese have said that and I am sure that is their intention. But SEK is well aware of the risks this chaos in the Chinese infrastructure can cause, not only ports but also freighting from the ports to end users. It is a real business risk and China is a huge market for Kiwifruit. Luckily we have 2-3 months yet before shipping starts and hopefully things will be a lot clearer and better by then
Total revenue of $236.9m (2018: $203.7m); an increase of 16%.
– $6.9m profit after tax (2018: $6.7m); up 3%.
– $34.5m EBITDA (2018: $33.3m); up 4% and ahead of the guidance range of between $32.5m to $33.5m.
– $368.2m of assets; up 22% from 2018.
– $116.8m net debt; an increase of $37.7m.
– $0.22 earnings per share; reflecting the full-year dilution of the late-2018 capital raise.
Opinions on the result? As expected?
ONe cant complain when guidance is achieved though of course one can hope for more.
EPS down quite a lot really, but we knew it would be that way
I thought debt was decreasing???
Solid divi - I'm holding, but I must admit I was hoping for better.
Yeh good point about the debt.
Hopefully the orchards have irrigation.
One thing that is concerning me about this company though is that it may over reward growers vs shareholders. They are its stated focus whereas shareholders should be the focus and growers can be shareholders if they choose.
Don't think you can operate a commercial orchard in NZ and certainly not in Australia without irrigation.
I take that in NZ as given and did recently some research re their Australian site ... and they look fine (i.e. they have irrigation and the water supply looks safe to the end of the harvesting period).
Not so sure re focus on shareholders vs growers. I guess - you could say that the growers are basically part of their customer base (they pay for consultation, for space in the cool storage and Seeka basically clips the ticket for every crate sold. No growers, no profit). Normally it is good if a company is looking after their customers. They say - look after your customers and the profits look after themselves.
Obviously - there needs to be long term a fair payback for the capital as well. Do you think this is not the case?
I do like what they are doing. They have greatly increased their geological presence by buying up large in Northland and Australia. To do this they took on a lot of debt but they nare now selling a lot of the orchards to growers that will have contracts to supply to SEK for several years and use the proceeds (and rleased gains) to lower debt again. They have now said they will look at a similar program in Australia.
Peat has a valid point about grower focus vs shareholder focus but the reward scheme they ran for several years and finished a couple of years ago from memory, was paid out in shares so the rewarded growers became shareholders with increasing holding sizes. Would be interesting to know how many have held onto those shares.
But overall I think SEK is doing the right thing and setting themselves up well for the future. We may well be a couple of (or several) years away from seeing the real results from this strategy but I like it anjd will be buying more in the near future if prices stay at current level or slightly lower. Currently only have a miniscule holding bought recently
Expecting 2020 Kiwifruit crop to be 10% larger than last year:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...310/318041.pdf
... this can't be bad news, can it?
a kiwifruit is a kiwifruit is a kiwifruit
Good to see nearly all the increase is in Sun Gold. Hayward estimates pretty much same as last year. Hopefully harvesting, packing and deliveries will go well and not be too badly affected by slowness in Chinese ports and transport.
Nibbled at a few more this morning
no body mentioned if kiwifruit harvest will go smoothly , will seasonal workers be allowed into the country to pick fruit if virus really takes off ? same for scales etc
Yeh workers should be fine. I’m in the wine industry and we don’t have any issues yet and Kiwifruit/apples happen around same time as us with the same labour pool. Getting the fruit to market will be interesting... lack of containers currently as they are all stuck in China... zespri hire their ship, so they should be sweet. Hopefully getting It off the ship will happen? Heard ports in China super slow with massive backlogs...
Ports are struggling to get their workers back, all the labourers went back to their rural home towns for the NY and then couldn't return.... If it can all get sorted in the next month the hort industry might just scrape in and get lucky. Lord knows what the market pricing will end up as so returns are anyones guess....
There sure will be challenges. But in our favour is the Chinese Government's stated intention to give food imports a priority at the ports. One would hope perishables such as fruit would be given a high priority.
In my industry (fishing) we are already seeing higher demand and prices for fish that has not been caught or processed in China or SE Asia, particularly into Europe. This bodes well for NZ food exporters.
great, thanks Turnip. appreciate you drawing this to our attention
it has been somewhat disappointing to see the demand for Seeka drop off recently perhaps this will assist. The company would appear to be doing well with diverse exports in Asia but mainly Australia.
seeka needs your help
Seeka Limited (NZX-SEK), a listed New Zealand produce handler has today announced a labour shortage of 300 positions for local people across their kiwifruit orchard and post-harvest operations in Bay of Plenty, Coromandel and Northland.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU20...-northland.htm
There will be people losing their jobs all over the place in the next few weeks, but I bet not many of them will go and pick kiwifruit. Much better to get the extra benefits just announced !
Can't say I blame them. In my time I have worked picking cabbages, apricots, pears and oranges at different times as a traveler in my 20s. If I were unemployed with no money, I think I would prefer to go on the dole. Having said that, they will find workers and I think food exporters are probably one of the better investments at this time.
The benefit is subsistence at best a miserable place to be. After a quick google,Kiwi fruit workers get $18 to $26 an hour . If you are in a motivated team pickers can earn more when paid by the bin. Weather depended, the fruit need to be dry. Beneficaries get what re $150 to $188 after tax. No brainer.
A bit off topic but you know, it depends how you organise yourself. I have known a few people who have lived quite well on the dole back in the day. Things are probably different now (few could save and buy a house on the dole today I suspect). More than a few of my friends in rural areas raising families and living a very nice life style on the dole 20 years ago. Not one of them would dream of picking fruit!
Picking fruit is like going to the gym and getting paid for it. And the gyms will more than likely be closed. If you want to lose some weight and get fit and strong over a few weeks, then this could be a great option.
Jacinda’s folly - throwing more money at beneficiaries so she gets their votes this September.
The caring, compassionate and sharing utopia on Earth - all using taxpayers’ money of course.
Meanwhile, companies like Seeka (which contribute hugely to the very same taxpayers’ monies being used to create the utopia of beneficiaries) may have unpicked fruit (read lost revenues)!
On the news, a group of 40 Thai kiwifruit seasonal workers are under quarantine for 14 days after arriving this week!
Little miss "look at me " and the rest of the "dead heads" have not realised it but throwing additional money at the beneficiaries is a complete waste of money as they are not swing voters, they always vote labour, daaaah , sooooo thick !!
dividend cancelled.
disappointing but prudent I suppose
Or, ominous?
Definately prudent, but I think they will do better this year than the market is predicting
I agree with this very sensible decision. I think many more companies should be doing the same
Hopefully, Seeka will be able to get their fruit to overseas markets as well.
Coronavirus doesn't stop Zespri getting its first kiwifruit shipment away for 2020
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/heal...id=app-android
Sorry. Off-topic for a moment.
My pride would not allow me to accept the dole.
Our 3 children have played with the idea during their university semesters and I have successfully discouraged them. The attitude such behavior breeds is not helpful to the recipient long term - (they may of course think they are being clever in accepting free money).
I do accept that under certain circumstances people need to accept the dole.
I am happy to pay my share of tax to help those people.
TAXATION IS THE PRICE OF CIVILISATION.
Are they doing a Warehouse?
Probably not by the sounds of it.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350656
Speaking with someone senior in the industry, things box on as usual within significant restrictions (i.e. staff in the packhouse). Early reports out of the market indicate export prices are going to be strong. The hort industry might be the only one to snake in a good year.
Lets hope they get reliable people to do the work normally done by overseas labour. Another industry that will be relatively OK out of this is fishing. SAN should do OK. Sealord offering people affected by COVID and losing jobs in Nelson to contact them for jobs in their Nelson factory for the upcoming Hoki season.
The lower USD/NZD fx rate will be of great help here
A sign of things to come for producers ? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21D12V
Good for seeka:
Currency likely to be in their favor.
Product is essential.
Bad for seeka:
I believe from memory they have high debt. Might lead to CR?
Difficulty getting pickers, possibly going forward.
Anything i missed?
Correct. An overall world wide shortage of fresh food due to an oversupply of dumb populist politicians plays as well in their favor.
liabilities to assets in last FY report was 57.9%. Yes, this is at the upper limit of a sensible debt load (though I think they reduced the debt in the meantime by selling and back-leasing some orchards). On the other hand - interest rates are low and dropping - i.e. as long as they keep the cash flow going, this should not be a huge problem.
Lack of pickers is an issue, but should be manageable. The problem is not the lack of people who could do the work, but the oversupply of populist politicians who want to stop them. Lots of unemployed tourism and hospitality staff who could do the work.
I suppose our politicians will find the very obvious solution before unharvested fruit start to rot and markets start getting depleted of fresh food, but maybe I am a bit naive by still believing in some common sense?
I think you got the main points related to the Covid-19 crisis. Obviously - it is not the only crisis in town, and the jury is still out what climate change (mid term much more damaging than what the corona virus will do) will throw at Seeka and other producers.
There are plenty of risks (like unseasonable hot and cold temperatures, drought conditions, fire, floods, storms, hail) which might damage or destroy their crops, but there would be as well the opportunity that they might be better prepared for all these things than the competition and could benefit from high demand in a low supply situation. They seem to have so far at least safe water supply (even in Australia) - not sure what their preparations are for other issues the climate crisis will throw at them and others.
Potentially expect an increased COGS
With the requirement to distance workers in their packhouses, likely to decrease efficiency of throughput? Likewise other areas of the business?
In my view the only thing which matters is - how do they do compared to competition? If everybody else around the world has the same problems ... they can put any additional food production costs straight forward to the consumer.
Pretty sure this is what is going to happen. Be prepared for food prices to go up in the supermarkets.
New Zealand’skiwifruit season is just kicking off and so far the industry body is confidentthere are enough pickers and packers for this year's crop.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/k...orkers-for-now (paywall)
Good news that kiwifruit growers are finding pickers. Hopefully some reliable hard workers from affected industries like forestry etc. Lets hope all our range of fruit can be picked, packed and sold. The country sure needs it https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-pos...i-adaptability
There are still logs leaving from the wharf stockpiles so need those forestry workers back cutting pretty soon
https://www.napierport.co.nz/quick-l...-7be4db5b-5002
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/...moveable-feast
And increased prices
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...art-indicating
so yeh buying demand really dropped off on Seeka during the last six weeks , despite there being indications of it not being disastrous at all, and suddenly now a bit of a rip roar coming back up.
it does show how there are clear opportunities for those keeping an eye open. I picked up a few more at 3.50, but am starting to be too overweight so will lighten up if the buoyancy sticks around.
Zespri saying how it was all going well the other day was also positive news for the industry.
Harvesting going quite well by the sounds of it despite still some issues with getting enough workers. Despite the COVID restrictions, SEK are packing around 90% of pre-COVID volumes and so far have packed 12.5m trays (12.8 in 2019) of which 7.4m (6.4) has been shipped. All looking good so far.
seeka debt being to high is the main issue i think at the moment and they are addressing it with a further 20 - 30m debt reduction from sales in aus. bringing debt down quickly will provide interest savings to the bottom line next year. unless they are going to invest in more growth which isnt bad either.
Seeka enters conditional sale and lease back of orchards
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353365
also there update yesterday wasnt as bad as sounded
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353412
The Company’s operational earnings are expected to be significantly lower through lower margins, additional costs and lower volumes in the current year
yet
The Company having considered its current year performance and expecting the completion of its divestment transactions, expects earnings before tax to be in the range between NZD$9m and $11.0m for the full 2020 financial year compared to NZD$9.8m in the previous corresponding period
so if you add back in all the one off bad stuff does that mean the result would have been a cracker?
No question that SEK has had significantly increased costs due to COVID restrictions, with staffing transport, accommodation and placements at working stations requiring "social distancing" and making it difficult. Very hard to say how much of that lower profit is due to that.
But we also have significantly lower Hayward yields for 2 years running due to dry weather, despite SEK now being spread out much more geographically than they were prior.
So not sure if we can say it would have been a bumper year without the unforeseens. It seems we get some unforeseens in this business each year so they probably should be normalised and should they not happen, we should take that as a bonus.
i dont know but they did say the last div of 12c was deferred to june decision so you maybe right. im sure growers will be dissappointed in no dividend again.
heres some news
Gold kiwifruit exports continued to rise after a strong showing in March 2020. Gold kiwifruit increased $116 million (37 percent) in April 2020 when compared with April 2019. Exports to Japan led this increase, with gold kiwifruit exports to the country more than doubling compared with April last year.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU20...port-month.htm
director buying shares on market at 4.30 . vote of confidence. look pretty silly though if no dividend is declared and the price falls though
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...947/323608.pdf
I'm not a grower, just a consumer, but have noticed the gold have been much better tasting than the green this year.
I gather that the gold cope with the hot, dry weather we have been having better than the green, but does anyone know whether Seeka's increasing production of gold will act as a hedge against drought in the future, or is it just something specific to this year's conditions?
no expert about , but gold provides better returns than green , so makes sense to be overweight in gold. maybe gold growers have irrigation thats why they were better this year? dont know about weather they are drought resistant.
i brought some this week too for a div , i think it would be hard to say covid is why they cant pay this time , it would have to be because we had a very bad year as the reason.
Returns per ha are way high for gold c.f. green. Thats why their strategy on the ex T&G orchards in northland has been to graft in gold to the original green rootstock and sell the orchard off.
Yes, the gold loves the hot weather, promotes sweetness. However what we get in NZ is usually the lower grades not suitable for export...
Massive kiwifruit crop this year spurs record revenue, despite Covid-19 worker shortage
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-...orker-shortage
Disappointing update. I don’t fully understand why given the publicity around the Kiwifruit industry.
I had hoped for something.
Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] provides the following dividend update.
On 19 March 2020 Seeka cancelled the dividend of $0.12 per share to be paid on 17 April and advised that the dividend, and the application of the Dividend Reinvestment Plan, will be considered by Seeka at its Board meeting scheduled for 17 June.
Having reviewed the company’s forecast guidance and the current business environment the Board considers that it is prudent that no dividend be paid at this time.
Seeka confirms its previous earnings guidance before tax to be in the range between NZD$9.0m and $11.0m for the full 2020 financial year after the completion of the Company’s divestment transactions.
I would have appreciated more of an explanation given that earlier it was intended to pay out.
however technically they are just giving you you’re own money back so just sell some shares if you need cash
I agree this is a disappointing update. Not only because of the no dividend announcement, but the lack of explanation on why so ! NZ has had a very good Kiwifruit season albeit with much higher than normal costs due to COVID. But SEK has also been undertaking significant divestment both in NZ & Aus to pay down debt. One would hope for a significantly strengthened balance sheet this year.
I wonder if companies are fearful of a Government or public backlash to any dividend announcements. Nothing surprises me in today{s crazy World !!
I wonder if the markets are not quite as robust as they hope for ? Maybe they are worried about prices or their ability to sell the product if COVID rages longer. So yes, a better explanation would help.
Peat, selling a few is not really something that we want or need to do.
I will just have to go down to the pack house and see if I can get a few more seconds.
disappointing announcement about no div. only excuses i see is the business has performed really badly this last year against record kiwifruit volumes or they are using covid conditions as a excuse to not pay a dividend and use the funds saved from this to reduce debt.