I see plenty of "Kiwis" that have bought their stuff, nearly every third person walking up Queen is waering a puffer jacket of theirs lately
Don't own the shares, don't own any of their clothing
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I see plenty of "Kiwis" that have bought their stuff, nearly every third person walking up Queen is waering a puffer jacket of theirs lately
Don't own the shares, don't own any of their clothing
haha I gotta admit, my family, friends are all into kathamandu's outwear for some reason, don't own any have thought they are overpriced...
Can get much better labels overseas for cheaper or similar prices...
Saw a jacket priced $300, very similar one in w/house for $80.
Wanted to buy hiking bag, asked staff if it was waterproof. They said none of bags they sold were water proof. Why so expensive then?
Don't knock it, folks. I daresay none of us would buy anything from Smiggle, either, but that doesn't stop it from being popular with a certain demographic - and being highly profitable!
:cool:
How Kathmandu achieved its massive 27% profit increase – and what you can learn
Wednesday, 25 September 2013 11:34
PATRICK STAFFORD
Kathmandu shares rise 5% on massive profit jump; Nine sets IPO for December: Midday Roundup
A 27% increase in full-year net profit, like-for-like sales growth of 5.6% and a gross profit margin of 63%– these are results unheard of in the retail industry.
And yet, they’re exactly what Kathmandu has been able to achieve. The camping and outdoor gear retailer not only managed to boost profit to $NZ44.2 million, but its cost of doing business has even dropped by 30 basis points as a percentage of sales.
“These results are absolutely stunning,” says retail expert David Gordon of Advantage Advisors.
Retail Doctor Group chief executive Brian Walker told SmartCompany the Kathmandu results are a lesson in “focusing on the core of good retailing”.
So how did the New Zealand-based company manage to not only meet but completely exceed any expectations the market had? (Shares jumped over 11% yesterday.)
Gordon says there are plenty of factors at work here – but one is the store network itself. Not only has the company closed stores that weren’t performing, but the targeting of new locations has been incredibly precise.
But it’s not just the store locations that are doing wonders. Kathmandu has been shrewd in making sure the company doesn’t pay more than it has to – rent as an overall percentage of sales remained flat, but was offset by exchange rate transitions and leverage.
Meanwhile, operating costs have fallen by 30 basis points due to lower costs in operating the online business.
The success of the company’s small-store format has been noted, and many new stores are following the same principle – reducing square footage has led to a number of benefits.
Online sales have been strong, growing over 55% year-on-year to 4% of total sales. The company’s social media reach is significant, operating busy accounts on all the major networks with a sophisticated site network.
The company noted improvements are also underway, including an “optimisation and international shipping capability on new online platforms”.
But Walker says the company does more than just operate its network well.
“The lesson for me here is that Kathmandu is really focused on the fundamentals of retail,” he says.
“Kathmandu is all about adventure. It has a theme that’s very appealing, and it speaks to the way people use their leisure time.
“Their message is good, the store experience is good, and they don’t drift from what they are.”
David Gordon says the company’s success comes due to the fact it “keeps its finger on the pulse”.
“It has a very good reputation in the eyes of customers – it stands for something. They’ve never deviated from what they’ve stood for.”
http://www.smartcompany.com.au/retai...8841d-93021674
Wow this thread has gone quiet,if you look at the charts,a consolidation has taken place and now the price is lifting on volume,note their end of half year was Jan,so lifting in anticipation? This looks as good as SUM at the moment.
KMD 1H FY14 Results and Interim report
Links to NZX announcements below
KMD 1HFY14 Results presentation
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248603
KMD 1H FY14 Media Announcement
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248602
KMD 1H FY14 Results and Interim Report
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/248601
Great result by business knowing what to do
Easter Sale now on ....need a new runners backpack so down there I go
Jenny Ruth on the radio this morning got stuck into CEO about the % increase in profit ...the accounts say up 9.9% but the press release says up 10.7%. Just a bit judicious rounding by the accountants he said. The 10.7% is rounding the profits and rounding the % age increase
Oh well lets just say earnings up 10% ......good enough. Just makes me wonder why companies get too clever with their reporting.
In the middle
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2590125
Nothing to do with KMD any more but here's the latest on Jan Cameron's retail investments.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/re...611-39wrc.html
profit downgrade similar reasons as the warehouse
I am sorry I can't give the link,but I did read a few days ago Australian retailers were finding things tough,weather and the budget blamed.
I am in Westport today.If we think retail faces challenges,Westport retailers face HUGE challenges.!!!! I just can not see how they can make a profit even if they did not have to pay rent and power.!!! Keeping shops open for long hours for so few customers must be heart breaking.
There's no shortage of winter coming, might need a new rain jacket whilst there Percy, take care on the pass too;
“The largest impact of this event is likely to be in Westland and the headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers. 250 to 300mm of rain could accumulate near the main divide and rainfall intensities could reach 20 to 30mm per hour.”
Commented yesterday when i went to Katmandu on the sheer glut of product esp down jackets(which are useless if they get wet btw) they are trying to flog at big price drops. Very few buying too.
The ""great winter storm'' which is coming is a load of baloney, sure there will be some rain and wind but it isn't a great winter storm as the headlines on Stuff etc are shouting out.
The way I see it snow levels will be only as low as 2000m (not down to car park level in most ski fields in NZ) and this will see most of the snow blown half way to Chile.
So, sorry Kathmandu holders, no need for too many puffer jackets from this lot !
Would love to be proved wrong and see half a metre dropped to 1000m but I don't think so.
Lovely warm winters day in Wellington - 19 degrees according to my weather station
But jeez 2 of these for $200 is tempting ... must get colder sometime
"Weakness presents buying op" T/P $3.90 , Quality retail exposure"Craigs
Same store sales up 30% in first 6 weeks of financial year
WOW
Bloody Aussies not buying as much as they meant to
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/206064.pdf
Bloody hell - down 25% or so
The word hadn't got out - Fishers/ Milford/Super Fund buying up over the last week or so by the looks of it.
Easy peasy playing with other peoples money eh
I am interested in next day or two
Be careful mate. The outlook for consumer confidence with the crisis in the mining and oil sector doesn't look good. I'd expect demand for "brand name" clothing to be very weak in the foreseeable future in Australia as consumers switch to more value based clothing. I don't think many dairy farmers will be updating their wardrobe this year either.
The other thing is look at where the Kiwi - Aussie cross rate is, over 95 cents !! Is 2015 the year when we get up to par with the Aussie and what effect on $N.Z. earnings ?
Large investor outfits buying up Winner??....The word didn't need to go out ...just shows investor arrogance,,,eh?? .....buying into a down trending stock thinking they are bomb proof..
KMD triggered a sell when the technicals broke down at the beginning of June....Since then the multiple fails at resistance conjunction points causing this downtrend would keep a medium - long term investor out from this stock...Multiple fail points create very strong sell warnings..
The chart below is up to last Friday....so today's sudden 20% fall to currently 222c comes as no surprise to this Chartist as I know downtrending stocks always have a tendency to disappoint..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...MD19122014.png
Seems to have turned to custard since David Kirk took over as Chairman
Good guy that David ... but some things he touches turns to custard
Cant blame David for Aussies not buying Kathmandu stuff
Good post Hoop, I agree 100%. I couldn't help notice the similarities between Pumpkin Patch and Kathmandu this year. Both in a clear downtrend, both lost circa 50% of their value since about May 2014 and both selling brand name clothing. Coincidence or a sign of the times that people are starting to question whether brand name clothing is worth the premium against a wide range of cheaper alternatives ? Effects of online buying continuing to grow too I reckon.
I looked up Kathmandu on Reuters and notwithstanding the clear downtrend and declining EPS last year it's well favoured by quite a range of analysts (10 analysts covering it) and consensus rating is overweight....go figure ?
Looks like professional investors have really got themselves tripped up on this one.
This Aussie retail guru thinks Kathmandu lost the plot (my interpretation of his words). Same as same as nothing special positioned as a discounter with too much competition
Beginning of a long spiral down eh Roger
kathmandu-shares-take-a-20-per-cent-drop-following-profit-warning-20141222-12c763
Hoops been on this thread and posted a chart - things don't fit on the page width wise now
Something only Hoop does to my stupid laptop
Anybody else suffer this
As Hoop noted its been in a clear downtrend for many months now. Classic case of waiting for it to make a clear break through on a 100 day MA to the upside before buying. That'll happen one day and it won't be anytime soon that's for sure but to be honest I'm not into retail clothing stocks. Weather too warm, not warm enough, too wet, not wet enough...there always seems to be a ready excuse they always seem to have at hand ready to trot out.
What they should say is we will make XYZ forecast if we have perfectly predicted weather appropriate for each season all year round, stable economic conditions and low interest rates i.e. they make good money when all the planets are in perfect alignment. The weather almost always disappoints...17 years as a boat owner tells me that.
Hmmm...first time I've heard of this.......In the past I've sized it so its slightly less wide than the forum page boundary...Its fitting OK on my PC screen...How much oversize is it Winner?
I'll fiddle around with the width settings tonight and replace the chart and see what happens.....
I'll plead "not guilty" :mellow: on the Aords thread...Those oversize post sizes on the page are created after Trackers posts his MSI/Stol charts.
Lose about 10% ....goes as far as the with on the Reply with Quote link. Say 90% zoom would fix it
View perfectly OK on iPad but if open chart as image the iPad gets in a real fizz and generally needs to be rebooted.
Don't worry about it ....see what I want one ey or the other.
Just weird
Didn't have to even look at the charts after reading the posts from 6 months ago and watching the AU economy and forex to know this was a sell. Their massive pre-xmas sale on a sale is very telling where this is going as well...
I sincerely hope anyone holding can get out without losing a hand, let alone several fingers!
KMD not doing too well in Straya bit of competition here, bit warm for half their main line items... I am a bit surprised by some sudden falls in recent month or two in KMD share price, then recovery. Now the announcement, and a solid drop. Good brand, probably could do itself a favor by a slight increase in quality. Sorry KMD holders, no respite any time soon.
One of Craigs IP picks for 2015.
Starting to look overdone. Anyone in for a dead cat bounce?
Meow :D Not for me at any price so fill your boots Moosie...just look at PPL's SP to see what's happening to branded clothing. I am sure most people are starting to join the dots with this one too.
I guess, stay way clear of this one at the moment. Aussie not doing well.
I remember that bounce very well. If you had the balls to buy in @ 10 cents at its low you had a 6 bagger after a few weeks as it jumped back to the 60s. That was a pretty epic bounce but was fuelled by a cocktail of fear, large shorts (excuse the pun) and finally saved by MASSIVE cost cutting, so very rarely happens. If you time it very well you can profit big time
Ouch, a few people lost their shirt / skirt there didn't they !! I've never been a fan of companies that make brand name apparel and / or merchandise. What's hot one minute is suddenly out of fashion and then... Always exceptions to the rule though. Louis Vuitton seemed to have done a bit of alright don't they !
Mistime it and you can lose your shirt, trousers and undies. Kittens are eminently more likeable than old cats :)
Totally agree. Very cyclical in nature as well.
Oh yes indeed. An element of luck in there as well, mixed in with seeing a totally undetvalued asset and massively oversold chart. Boot in investor psychology and you've got a perfect mix for high volatility! :)
PS -I'm a dog man myself. Big fluffy ones. Lassies are preferred if you are in the giving spirit :D
Certain irony the former CEO gets a bundle and a half of shares under a long term incentive scheme shortly after the share price collapses.
Management interests aligned with driving shareholder returns (sustainable long term returns that is) .....yeah right
Looks like every man and his dog in the pigs trough as the notices roll out
Doubt all will say they deserve this bonus
Anyone have any clues why SP for this is drilling the depths? A huge drop and div yield is piquing my interest.
I'm pretty sure have seen a post by Roger this morning on this thread...which was quite elaborative, did you delete it Roger?? Certainly looks like a good entry point for me, however would like to dig bit deeper before taking a position.
It's in the WHS thread.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post525944
Yep I did. The reason is I'm perplexed and of two minds with this stock. Analysts like it. As posted in WHS thread and forward revised EPS is just over 19 cps for 2015 so on the face of it there's value to be had with a PE of less than 10. Its not a tired brand nor is it close to market saturation like WHS is but to be honest I can't get my head around whether this is a "value trap" or not. My gut says it probably is at present.
Consumer sentiment is very, very weak in their key market in Australia and I think this will get worse as ongoing mass retrenchments occur in the mining, oil and gas sectors.
In N.Z. people here are really worried with apparel brands, (PPL) and big names like Cavalier appear to mean nix these days.
On the other hand KMD is a solid brand IMO, we have a growing baby boomer generation looking to get into the great outdoors / adventure market, (how much of this is my own perception because I'm on a health kick at present I cannot decide), and I expect government funding around a push for healthy lifestyles as govt's face an epidemic of obesity related illnesses so such healthy lifestyle promotion should play into KMD's adventure / outdoor product offerings very well over time. The reason I deleted it is I don't feel I can add much to the debate other than to raise more questions...but I guess its good to discuss these things.
My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... To much potential volatility to buy this for dividend yield in my 2 cents worth of opinion. Restructuring in due course could really see this take off from a new SP base wherever that base is ?????
You'd think the low petrol prices would be playing into the hands of retailers like WHS and KMD but that doesn't appear to be the case...which begs the question of where they're spending the extra money...on bills perhaps ? As posted earlier in the thread I've never really been a brand apparel kind of guy but I guess a bit of exposure to a good brand when it hits the bottom could be a good diversification strategy.
I've put KMD on my watchlist and watching closely. I'm very interested in what people think of the quality of their products and company prospects in the medium term ?
Huge changes going on in retail.
Just as the motor car replaced the horse,the internet is changing the distribution channels.
People can now buy their apparel on line.Some people will not go near shops.
The model of KMD's, based on three "sales" per year, may not stand up to people comparing their product with on line retailers ,whose everyday prices are lower,and quality most probably a lot better.
No one is fooled by save $200 on a puffer jacket,now $299,when they can buy the same or better at $99 elsewhere.
Roger,
I would be wary using the average analyst forecast. There is a big range from .15 to .225. Some of the higher forecasts may not have been revised down yet. Perhaps better to look at the bottom for a more conservative view.
http://www.4-traders.com/KATHMANDU-H...917/revisions/
Another thing to remember is that downgrades usually come in threes. Two more to go.
Cheers,
noodles
I tend to agree mate. This health kick I'm on is basically getting out there and doing power walking 45-60 minutes quick walking 5-6 days a week and avoiding sugar and all forms of known extremely fatty food like Cheesecake and Ice-cream chocolate e.t.c., (lost 5 kg's since Christmas and very good for dealing with the stress I'm dealing with in regard to my daughter). Now I've got to thinking quite a number of times that one of those fancy hydration backpacks might be a good idea as this fast walking is thirsty work.
So purely for the sake of a random exercise I just popped onto the FCO (Fishing camping and outdoors website), my local store is 100 metres away from my nearest KMD store and I see they have 2 litre hydration packs on sale for $27
http://www.fco.co.nz/online-store/ca....aspx?id=20406. For the sake of comparison I then jumped on the KMD site and there's are $80 on special, probably better but unlikely I'd be able to tell the difference. While i was on the KMD website I had a quick look around at some of their other pricing which also worried me. As a purely random sample this sort of price disparity would worry me if I were a KMD shareholder. Every Tom, Dick, Harry and Roger would go to the FCO store wouldn't they or buy one on trade me for even less ?
People will buy "good" products at "fair" prices.PPL used to have "lovely" kids clothes at "fair" prices.Today they just have "fair" products.
Briscoes proves to me people will still buy "good" products at "fair" prices .
Over the past 6 years 13,500 stores have closed in NZ.!Retail is a very difficult sector to be in.
The overheads of a retail store are huge,compared to online overheads.
Totally agree mate and I can't see the difficulty ending anytime soon. Yeah Briscoes is a model of how to still do retail very effectively. Top quality leadership there, no question.
KMD could do okay in due course with a massive restructuring / price repositioning do you reckon ?
As a KMD 'Summit Club' member, I'm regularly emailed extraordinary discount opportunities on a range of apparel and goods. I have wondered at times how they can sustain such discounts as for example today, 50% off plus 10% for club members. Best Ive seen is 80%! I have no issues with quality but also no need to either visit their stores or buy at retail.
Still no dead cat bounce, just a kitty face planting into pipes along its journey into the subterranean sewers.
Along with PPL and WHS, me thinks the retail sector is severely out of fashion right now...
KMD gear is top notch especially their ski apparel I've got a set that's completely waterproof,lightweight and breathable and even at minus 10 c I only need a light layer underneath. All they need is a good upcoming winter and all those Aussies will be flocking to the stores buying their kit before they catch one of those extra Air NZ flights scheduled for Queenstown (Two years ago at the Remarkables all I met was Aussies and last year many I talked to said the trend would increase as its cheaper and better to come ski in NZ) Here's hoping:cool: Disc - Holding 10k shares bought at $2.84.
I don't know.They may find their internet channel is where their future is!
I feel the "3 sales a year" model is poor.
Customers today are very savvy,and if your products do not stand up to being "good" value at "fair" prices you face extinction.
On one of the Australian threads someone quoted the retail market was only good for coffee and phones.!! I think they are right.
Roger, here's a 3 litre hydration pack from Torpedo7 for $27, if you don't mind buying from a 'tired old brand" ;)
http://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/D...hydration-pack
Good honest post mate. I don't know either. Good gear, I don't think there's any question about that... but you don't buy Mercedes-Benz's brands in tighter economic times do you !!
The other thing is if you do, then you probably don't buy three times a year. I once bought a real good quality pair of boat shoes from Timberland for $300, and they're such good quality they've lasted and lasted, now five years old and wearing them today but its not like I felt compelled to go back again and again and perhaps that's the nub of the issue with KMD...relatively expensive "treat gear" you buy now and again when you're feeling good about your finances or want to treat yourself / someone else. In tougher economic conditions prevailing in Australia I'd imagine the average consumer would buy a substitute branded product unless they really "believed" in the brand.
Yes you do. And that 's the point as I see it.People will pay for quality ie a Mercedes-Benz ,but if their other car is a Toyota,and it performs better than the Merc,then Mercedes-Benz are in trouble.People will go without, to buy the best,but only if it is "good" value at a "fair" price.
What do I mean good value at a fair price.?
Lets think of greeting cards.You can pay $1 or $5.99 for a very nice card.
Yet, when buying a card for some one very special you may find "just" the card you want for $9.99.It is something out of the box.It is lovely and is "good" value at a "fair" price.
When I am away from home, and wanting to buy my lunch, I watch where the workers go,as they know "good" value at a "fair" price.!!! I follow them. Always works!!!
You're as cunning as a wily old fox mate. I just skim read through the first 20 pages of this thread. Compulsory reading for anyone thinking of buying. My thoughts are that retail is a bloody tough gig and its getting harder, this thing is cyclical and the trend is down. This stock appears to be good value but my thoughts are that this is a classic "value trap" Earnings could get hammered in 2015 and 2016 as the Aussie economy gets tighter and tighter. I will avoid like the plague !!!
Oh dear .....H1 looks like a loss situation
Bloody dry hot weather .....normalised profits allowing for weather would have been quite high.
I'm not sure 'disappointing' is the right word. My guess is that KMD will be going on sale today - 20 - 30% off. A further sale of 10-30% off already discounted prices will start tomorrow. ;)
Thank God for gut feel.Quote:
My gut feel says its too risky to try and catch a falling knife. With profit uncertainty hanging over the company and no further planned company updates forthcoming till February the risk appears to remain to the downside notwithstanding its more than halved in value from $3.90 in May 2014. I think it will be a buy at some stage but could test early 2012 lows at around $1.50 in the meantime. On a risk reward basis I don't see any harm in waiting till its broken back through on the upside of the 100 day MA, whenever that might be... Roger 16 January
With respect mate I don't think anyone knew for sure whether we'd be talking about a loss situation for the first half, I had my suspicions, see above post.
Good gear but quite over-priced and very vulnerable to the ongoing groundswell of buying stuff on the internet. Also unless brand names offer quality and fair value I think customers are drifting more towards value products.
Don't think they ever lost money before.
On line sales are awfully discounted as well .....seems more a ongoing clearance sale
Interesting commentary around gross margin's which appear to be under serious pressure...at a time when the Aussie and Kiwi dollars were quite strong ???. Both currencies have had a meaningful correction thus far in 2015 which won't help KMD with their margin going forward.
What if it is nothing to do with the weather, and more to do with the damage they have done to the brand by always having massive 50% off sales. I don't rate their gear at all, and never buy for myself if the purchase is something I will use longterm. Have been buying quality gear online via the US, and shipping via youshop when the retailer wont ship directly. I only buy Kathmandu stuff for the kids as they will grow out of it quickly.
Yep Couta1 I'm pretty sure W69's comment was meant to be firmly tongue in cheek...along the lines of normalised win percentages for SKC.
In my view apparel companies blaming the weather is wearing very thin as an excuse. Seasonal weather is NEVER perfect and stock mix and promotional campaigns should account for that. Still....if we get a really frigid winter we'll all be out buying Kathmandu jackets and it'll all come right...unless of course we get the usual warmer winter than normal due to ongoing global warming :eek2:
I‘d agree with that, just walking past the Papanui store a few times a week, outside of sale time the patrons do consistently seem to be mostly those just off a plane and stocking up their campervans.
The locals just wait for 80% off sales as at present, if they haven’t developed a natural caution. Such a wide ranged pricing model just seems to make folk a bit uncertain and jaded about what is really value and what is really quality.
Perhaps a new CEO will turn it all around and provide better clarity as to what the target market really is.
Are they a camping store for tourists, or are they are retail vendor of high end quality goods for New Zealanders and Australians.
Can’t be both IMO, but there is room to split the brand and carve off stores near the airports and tourist trails under different branding.
Even when I was a shareholder, I would never buy anything at full price and would treat Kathmandu sale prices as "normal trading" prices. I would feel a mug if I bought something that was not on sale. Even when sales were on, the shops seemed empty. I found I was buying minor items on sale near Christmas as stocking fillers. I thought the quality and design of items was good but as I was not buying them, I must admit I was not comfortable remaining a shareholder: I suppose more of a gut response as opposed to financial reasoning and analysis.
IMO, the first problem with the KMD pricing (very expensive but with huge discounts) is that as a customer you can't use price to gauge quality and you can't use the discount % to gauge value. So you HAVE to go and check competitor stores for the same or similar item and then maybe go back to KMD, or not.
The second problem is that as a general rule of thumb, anything that doesn't have at least 50% off is going to be too expensive. So in effect the store is closed when they don't have a sale.
The other issue I have, speaking from personal experience, is that the customer service is way short of what you get at Bivouac or Macpac.
It works because customers see value at the discounted prices Rebel Sports and Briscoes offer.
Rebel sports, (not sure how many stores) and Fishing Camping and Outdoors, (13 stores in the North Island) are part of the Super Retail Group listed on the ASX which owns many other brands including the well known Super Cheap auto brand. These guys are huge with sales of over $2b. If my completely random sample experience of looking at buying a hydration backpack is anything to go by where Kathmandu were around $80 on "so called" sale and the FCO were $27 I'd suggest if KMD have issues with gross margin they may have supply chain / procurement cost issues. Maybe the KMD pack is better but does the average customer know that and furthermore do they care ?
Are we moving to a more throw away society where the average customer is happy with getting a couple / few seasons use out of their gear provided they get it cheap enough in the first instance ?
Isn't Rebel Sport part of the Briscoes group in NZ, Roger?
Opps quite right. Super retail group have their own "Rebel" brand in Australia. Just means poor KMD have to compete with both Briscoes through Rebel Sport and Super Retail group through their excellent value Fishing Camping and Outdoors stores. SP getting smashed now the Aussie market is open and voicing its discontent.
Anyone have any thoughts on the new CEO - Mr Xavier Simonet?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/KMD/announcements/260001
Is he good enough to turn things around?