Originally Posted by
upside_umop
I have quickly updated waihokke's (spelt along those lines) spreadsheet by applying current market rates:
-oil from $55 to $75
-exchange rate from 0.67 to 0.70
-NPV starting from now rather than 3 years
-updated the recoverable amount of oil from 25mmboe to 32mmboe
-updated number of shares to 262.5 million
All other factors left constant. The factors above have potential for upside, but also for downside.
Given this, it gives NZO a NPV of $177 million = 67.5 cps
All in all, this is a high case scenario.
A couple of things i noticed in the spreadsheet that i didnt fix were:
1) The oil flows were for 7 years, rather than 18 expected this will adversly affect the NPV of the project.
2) Tax benefits were not included, this will positively affect the NPV.
For the above two, I havent calculated net effect, as it was relatively quick fix of the current spreadsheet, but you get the overall jist of things.