Fantastic assets;
"You will never buy better!"
Printable View
Fantastic assets;
"You will never buy better!"
A question is why do they claim big depreciations?.
The bulk of Meridian assets are large hydro's built by NZED between 1930 and 1985. During the early corporatisation phase 1993 through 1996 there was a lot of debate as to how best to value these assets and Meridian have been tweaking valuations ever since they inherited them.
Basically, almost all of their assets, by value, are well over 25 years old but still depreciating heavily as large hydro's require very little on-going re-capitalisation over what could be a life span of over a century ?
They would have revalued them up as well so they maybe depreciating the revaluations.
That is basically the Greens/Labours theory - you shouldn't be able to earn a return on the 'fake' revaluation.
What do people see the sp movement being when different events happen, ie start price of $1, after a year a 13.5% divi, then people trying to scrape together money for next installment (18 months and a bit away)?
I know its a stab in the dark answer but just interested to see how you think Mr market will react.
I heard the TAB were taking bets. :eek2:
One scenario
Short term: A great listing with instos buying up big; after listing as well, so a winner for staggers and investors
med term : Cunliffe overdoes his aggressive attack(like team NZ ?) and shoots self in foot, and Key with the slippery silver tongue wins well at election. Great divs and sentiment keep the price healthy
Long term. : Although Tiwai is an older less efficient plant , ALU prices recover and by 2017 the mkts are prepared to pay a little premium for green ALU )hydro power). S/p remains strong and divs way better than the bank continue.
whats your poss scenario/s cheers J/t
I havn't decided on investing in Meridian yet, but here's a couple of random thoughts.
Meridian's "green" status is just the luck of the draw. They missed out on all those nasty thermal stations when ECNZ was broken up.
As others have noted, they still need to buy thermal generated power when the rain doesn't fall sufficiently in the right places.
I can't see any rational business being prepared to pay over the odds for "green " aluminium.
The eventual loss of the Tiwai contract, if it happens, will free up generation to be sold at better, market prices to other customers. Prices overall may fall but the losers, under most climatic conditions, will be the higher-cost generators, not Meridian.
(Hmmmm.... I seem to be talking myself into investing in this company.)
:mellow:
I was asked today by an acquaintence whether there is a prospect of the Instalment Receipt secondary market price, ceterus paribus, being discounted if there is a differential between the retail cap of .60 cents, and the (higher) institutional price? ($1.80 for example)
I'm leaning towards 'no' because anyone/everyone who buys on the market will be obligated to pay the higher price anyway, and retail holders only get the cap benefit if they don't sell. So I guess the 'obligation price' post IPO will always be seen as $1.80 and this is the benchmark on which the market will trade
Interested in others' views on this, but makes me think if you want it, buy in the IPO. Those who are going to wait and see where it settles, could be giving up 20 cents.