Currently buyers at $1.92 so you are now up 28%.
Bliss territory.
But wait.....there's more.Trading at $1.93 up 28.67%
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Has hit the 1 billion dollar mark.Onwards and upwards.
Now trading slightly above this dog's fair assessed value but I won't be putting any paws up to sell any...momentum may continue to generate further gains even if EPS growth is pretty modest. Maybe Winner really does get his $2 by Christmas ?
If it does reach $2 by Christmas.. Will you be a seller ???.. Going on your maths ...
Not me.. Going on my gut... In from the beginning..
Oooops sound like a crypto trader ..
I chose not to answer it because I won't lock myself into a predetermined course of action on here but for what its worth if you are interested the general investment principle I follow is that if any share is ~ 110 - 115% or more of my own fair value assessment I will consider allocating capital elsewhere depending upon what other opportunities exist at the time.
Analyst average fair value assessment is $1.86 http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-B...518/consensus/
I see it at about $1.90.
2018 PE's of comparative banks I follow, (assuming 12.5 cps earnings for HBL this year due to dilution effects of new capital raise)
HBL 15.6 at $1.95
BOQ 13.2
ANZ 12.7
NAB 14
WBC 13.4
CBA 13.8
All figure off 4 traders to eliminate any of my inherent confirmation bias, (with the exception of EPS for HBL which I have adjusted down slightly (12.9 cps to 12.5 cps) to account for increased number of shares on issue).
Another, (very important in my opinion) issue to consider is that HBL is the only investment in this sector which will give you full imputation credits. You also need to consider the relative EPS growth rates of the various banks. As I suggested yesterday, due to the strong appetite of HBL for new capital I have reservations now that their EPS growth will be much if any greater than their peers.
Much will depend upon their use of the extra capital to drive extra growth. Those that love this share and have a very long association with it will tell you that there's an acquisition around the corner, (but we've heard Jeff cry wolf so many times you can put me in the sceptic camp on that one) and how they drive their organic growth, (I am a believer and believe their reverse equity mortgage book is going to grow very, very strongly in the years ahead). Is their organic growth sufficient to justify the PE premium to their peers...that as they say... is the $64,000 question !
Your welcome. I forgot to include Bendigo bank in my comparative PE analysis which is here http://www.4-traders.com/BENDIGO-AND...apide&mots=BEN and their 2018 PE is just 12.2. The average of the six Aussie banks peer group that I follow is thus 13.2 v HBL at 15.6.
HBL thus trades at a PE premium of 2.4 compared to its peers whereas a few years ago it traded at a PE discount of a similar amount.
Has this got the legs (EPS growth) to expand its PE premium to the Aussie banks further or is a reversion tighter into its peer group to be expected ?
Yes a good unbiased post Beagle.
HBL is a good well run company that has delivered for it's shareholders, but there are times that the investment case in a company at any price should be questioned (mainly for investors entering or adding).
At the moment my opinion is that the current sentiment (and resulting momentum) has got in front of the fundamentals, and this not a bad or negative thing. It's just part of the wonderful mechanism we call the stock market.
Heartland continues to get rerated upwards by the market
A price book multiple of over 1.8 is unprecedented for Heartland ...and pretty high for banks / financial instos
Over 2 bucks next week.
Like others, I feel that HBL is slightly overvalued at the moment, but not by enough to start selling. It is currently my third largest holding and I'm very happy with how it is doing.