go digging in the crown minerals website
M
Printable View
NZ's oil output soars in past year
5:00AM Thursday July 03, 2008
By Grant Bradley
New Zealand's self-sufficiency in oil more than doubled last year, due to the offshore Tui field coming on stream and greater production from the Pohokura project in Taranaki.
In 2006 the country was 14 per cent self-sufficient but this climbed to 32 per cent last year, still down from a peak of 55 per cent in 1997, according to Ministry of Economic Development figures.
Around the time of the 1974 oil shock the country was just 4 per cent self-sufficient, calculated as domestic oil production divided by total domestic consumption.
Use of petroleum products climbed by 1 per cent last year. Petrol and diesel dominate fuel consumption, accounting for 44 per cent and 42 per cent respectively
The ministry report says oil and condensate reserves jumped 53 per cent last year. Estimates of remaining reserves in the country's producing oil fields rose to 148.3 million barrels at January 1, from 97.1 million barrels a year earlier.
Tui, which started production a year ago, accounted for about 35 million barrels of the increase. Its total reserves have since been upgraded to 50.1 million barrels by operator Australian Worldwide Exploration.
Remaining in the offshore Pohokura field, owned by Shell, OMV, and Wellington's Todd Energy, increased 30 per cent to 55.9 million barrels. Liquid reserves in the partners' Maui field rose 9 per cent to 24.1 million barrels.
Gas reserves increased 10 per cent to 2.03 trillion cu ft, driven by a 16 per cent gain at Pohokura to 908 billion cu ft and a 13 per cent improvement at Maui to 439 billion cu ft.
The figures show that total energy used by consumers grew by 1 per cent between 2006 and 2007.
Since 1990 the economy has outstripped that rate of energy use.
This represents an improvement of energy efficiency of almost 15 per cent.
In the same period energy use per person grew by 10 per cent. New Zealanders' annual energy demand was equivalent to approximately 3400 litres of petrol per person last year.
Average electricity prices increased by 3.2 per cent after price falls the previous year.
Generation from non-renewable energy sources (fossil fuels and waste heat) was 1 per cent less in 2007 than in 2006.
While coal-fired generation was sharply down, gas was up by 21.9 per cent.
Wind energy, which accounted for 2.2 per cent of total electricity generation, almost doubled from 2006.
Total wind capacity increased by 88 per cent to 322MW by the end of 2007.
New Zealand Wind Energy Association chief executive Fraser Clark said greater wind generation would help to keep electricity prices down as the cost of thermal generation rose.
"The cost of wind generation is not affected by the increasing price of fossil fuels or the cost of carbon emissions."
NZO is fascinating. I wonder what is going to happen today - hoping for it to climb back over $1.90 where it rightfully should be. However, I suspect we may see a bit more of a sell down.
US crude above $144 after the NY close, so tapis should head up to maybe $148ish.
A key event for us NOGers is the next OCR review on 24 July. There is a chance that the RB may cut rates, the money markets are pricing in a chance (not a likelihood) of this. If they do the kiwi will drop sharply and likely head sub 70c in short order which as you all know would significantly improve our NZD denominated earnings. In anycase September will see rate cuts and decline in the kiwi. The economic bad news is relentless, the next to really jump will be the unemployment numbers, when that happens watch the housing market really suffer as people are forced to take market prices when their circumstances change.
All this will affect monetary policy and therefore the exchange rates and therefore NZOs profit as we are an exporter..
Cheers
Drone, Tapis was $148 yesterday - if it follows WTI it could well top $150 today.
Yes, amazing, what will petrol at the pump be if $NZ drops below 70??!
What will NZO sp be?? Both $3 maybe? Yowza!!
Tim, BigBob doesn't tell us how or where he set his stop, but I wonder if he was in fact referring to a trailing stop. As I'm sure you know, this is a stop that is not fixed, but keeps on automatically ratcheting up (never falling) as the shareprice rises. Trailing stops are designed to protect profits by triggering a Sell signal when a stock drops from its peak by more than a preset percentage. I would suggest that a suitable value trailing stop for the current NZO uptrend would be 8.5%, as plotted below in red. Any value lower than this would have had you flicked out way back in March and higher values, while less likely to be hit, would mean giving more back to the market when they are eventually triggered.
Notice how the On Balance Volume indicator is moving in synch with the shareprice - ie there are no divergences. These are formed when OBV and shareprice move in different directions and give insight into underlying market strength or weakness. A rising OBV being bullish and a falling OBV bearish. In other words, there is nothing in the OBV to impugn the current uptrend.
Up until last month we had only a tentative trendline for NZO, but see how price action has reversed again exactly at the trendline, so we now have a confirmed trendline in place. A break below this would give a sell signal. You can see here that current price action is well above any of the indicators shown here.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO73.gif
NZO
03/07/2008
MINE
REL: 0927 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as at 2.00pm on 2 July, the
following operations have been completed on Momoho 1:
- The 17 inch section has been drilled to a final depth of 1,845m MDRT
(measured depth below rotary table).
- The 13-3/8 inch casing has been run and cemented as programmed.
- The Blow-Out Preventers (BOPs) are currently being pressure tested.
Over the coming week, the rig is expected to drill the 12-1/4 inch section
and run the 9-5/8 inch casing.
Momoho is an exploration well 6 kms southeast of the Kupe central field, off
the coast of South Taranaki. Drilling began on 13 June 2008 and progress to
date is summarised as follows:
Well section: 36inch 22inch 17inch 12 1/4inch
8-1/2inch
Planned Depth: 170.5m 550m 1,830m 2,855m 3,142.5m
Actual Depth*: 180m 561m 1,845m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth measured below the rotary
table (MDRT).
The well is expected to take approximately 51 days to drill.
Partners in the Kupe permit PML38146 are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
Hi Phaedrus, yes that is the correct term (sorry Tim)... I am trailing slightly looser than what you suggest and I am also taking other TA signals into account (not that I'm that good at TA)... for what it's worth my stop is slightly below the confirmed trendline and on the other side of last week's gap...
I use
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market...id=markets_oil
Aaah,the forecaster's curse! $NZ up and NZO down since I suggested the opposite a few hours ago. I promise not to do that again.