You are obviously on some pretty good grass - no small vols through at 1.73 at close I hope or we'll have to call in the UN...
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This is getting exciting.
Normally I agree with you Digger and on the basis that people usually sell their best performing stocks and hold onto the dogs then NZO should be on these holders sell list. (Perhaps your post was tongue in cheek for the benefit of MD:rolleyes:? or are you looking to top up?;))
But this time the POO is generally expected to at least hold at current prices. Oil and Gas companies in bourses around the world are the only equity segment increasing their value as the world adapts to the prospect of much higher oil and gas prices. NZO's SP has been artificially depressed by the Options exercise. Year end financials are on the way revealing the obscene profits from Tui. Dividends on the way. PRC's SP is booming. Tui is flying. Kupe is nearly upon us with key steps being completed by the month. The New Zealand dollar is becoming monopoly money.
And NZO is beginning to look a sitter for inclusion into the NZX top 15!
Being overweight in NZO could be becoming a status symbol, certainly as it progresses towards $3 it will be a money spinner for holders. The best exposure to the booming resource sector in NZ.
Dump NZO? Not me! :)
Toot toot! All aboard, the NZO train is leaving the station! -told ya digger ;)
NZO @ 1.80
Buyers of 1,100,000, sellers of 200,000
Will it hit 1.90 today? could do, quite easily.
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209509][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
There are still going to be a large number who sold their heads, took up options and who are unable to sell at the moment until they receive their allocation, who will want to take their profits. Those speculators are not in the market yet as they cannot sell the options that they have converted.
Well done to all holders. This has been a fantastic success story and there is so much more to come.
I remember about 4 years ago sitting at the internet at Millbrook when NZO was about 40 odd cents, thinking to myself there will come a day when we will see price rises of 10 cents or more in a day and the shareprice will be over $2.00. These days are almost upon us.
A few months back both NZO and PRC were about $1.60 each and I could see that ( because of the options ) that PRC would race away from NZO by about 30 cents, and then NZO would play catch up.
NZO will climb once all the silly mum and dad selling disappears but I am starting to think that PRC is going to maintain that lead ( which has now stretched out to almost 70 cents. )
PRC is truly a sensational international stock to have in this environment of steel demand and not enough secure coking coal, but NZO is also a star rising and Momoho could put it into a new orbit.
Thanks for the comp. MacDunk. Been a bit of fun, and looking back, all the snipers and cloudnines have disappeared.
But who will win? All of us.
Got a Forbar Portfolio Magazine,in the weekend mail,full of wise advice that now is the time to purchase those shares that are trading at third to half their predicted values.All the old tired faithfuls,FBU,AIR,PPL,no mention of stocks that are increasing in value like NZO,PRC,no mention of resource stocks ,asian economies,appears like they just rehash last years newsletter.
So, Clips it is!
Can't recall him/her posting on this forum but we should encourage (beg) him/her to impart as much wisdom to us as possible!
Congrats, Clips!
Congratulations Clip, lol that was more stressful than waiting for a trademe auction to close. As one of the first runners up can I place the crown on you?
Can anyone tell me if their options have been been converted to shares yet at computershare registry.Will panic if my cheque hasn't been presented tonight.
$150 oil this week will that equate to a price of over $2 for nzo.
Well done Clips.. sensational.
Duncan.. remember that horse called Kiwi....no good being the front runner 400 metres from home..
for the record.. i came home close with my 1.81. much better than you there duncan my friend.. you see.. its the ability of one to see what no one else can se that makes one stand out. For that i think am going to appoint clips as my personal financial adviser if he isnt already booked out.
dunc. let me know when you are going to buy in... that will be my cue to sell
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209708][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209509][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;207051]Competition to select NZO share price on conversion date June 30th
in the event of a tie the winner is the person with the correct score posting first
I will list you in posting order.
1,AMR 180c, 2, OILER 165c, 3,Macdunk 159c. 4,MATTYROO 158c.
5,SEAMUS 135c, 6,SERPIE 131c, 7, LIZ 120c, 8, STRAT157c.
9TRACKERS 168, 10, COLIN 170, 11,THE MACHINE 210c. 12,MALCOLM 200c.
13,SPOOK 172, 14,BIG BOB184c, 15,ZORBA 155c, 16, REMY 167c,
17 AMERICAN PSYCHO 175c 18 SHASTA 161c, 19RONTHEPOM 171c 20 PHAEDRUS 160.
21SHREWDY 169, 22 BERMUDA 149, 23 MORV 183c, 24 COALIE 188c
25 DIGGER 173c, 26 blank, 27 NITA 181c, 28 SUMMER NED 193c.
29 QOH 179c, 30 WK6332 225c 31 BALANCE $10-60 32 KS 162,
33 TOK3N 145c, 34 SHANE M 162.5c, 35CORRAN 156c, 36 MICK100 300c.
37 DSURF 154c, 38 SKEET 185c,39 MIBO 177c, 40 JAY 162c,
41 ZACMAN 187c, 42 GAMBLER33 115c, 43 ANUBUS144c, 44 BRUCETO9 164c.
45 romer 163c.46 HOOP 147c 47 RABBI 148c 48 ROTWEILLER 153c,
49 MINGEATHINAIOOS 150c,50 MANXMAN 195c, 51 MACDUFFY 146c, 52 BLOCKHEAD 198c,
53 777 226c,54 SWISSBOY 174c,55 AIRDALE166,56 CLIPS 178c,
57 PADDIE 196c,58 FOODEE 176, 59 BK152c,60 MPC182c,
61 STEVE 151,62 ONTHEMONEY 143, 63 LION 186, 64,TIM23 189c,
65 BOB C 190 66 RIF RAF 191c 67, OUT TO LUNCH 194 68 SEHNSUCHT888 192c,
69 PIETRADE 220c,70 ZAC 197c, 71,CAM 245C,72, CHALICE 214c,
73 GLENDOONIE 142c 74,UPSIDE_UMOP 159c,
[/QUOTE
THE WINNER IS NUMBER 56 with CLIPS ON 178c WELL DONE CLIPS E-MAIL DIGGER WHERE YOU WOULD LIKE YOUR PRIZE COURIERED TO. DIGGER thanks for being so generous in offering the prize I would have done it myself but being SCOTTISH I have a reputation to uphold. Macdunk
MacDunk,
You should insist that the prize is awarded at Diggers party in November. Moet et al. And Tui.
[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209747][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209708][QUOTE=duncan macgregor;209509] Clips is the man,or the woman but in any case the winner.I was 5 cents too consertative.Still around it was a light heared comp and helped to pass what for me has been a stressful time. 5 oclock tonight has been shaping up for about 2 months as a time when a lot of things come to a head. This comp and the sale of my house in Morrinsville has just passed about an hour ago. Sure tidies up a lot of loose ends and all as i hoped.
Clips email me on.
cboreham@xtra.co.nz
Give me your address and your preference on a bottle at 100 or several up to 100 or do you want to pick your own. Cheers and congradulations
[quote=duncan macgregor;209747][quote=duncan macgregor;209708][quote=duncan macgregor;209509]Well done Clips, commiserations to QOH & Mibo, close but no cigar...
Well done DS & all those @ NZO for getting the options over the line.
NZO got lucky with the rising oil prices :cool:
I like that idea but it is now up to Clips. Clips are you interested in seeing a god forsaken piece of land when only the wild can survive.Way up on a hill overlooking most of the eastern waikato.Self power,you Clips can do the first hour on the treadmill to get the lights on.TR will be the last as he has a lot of staying power. Well he must have or NZO would have gone by the way side like most other oil companies back in the 80 and 90's,in which case we would not be having this competition and my party in Nov.
Sold my house today at 5 0clock so now can concretate on getting the new one up and running. Today they just finished sanding all the inside.Tomorrow the painting starts.The day after wife and i agrue over whether we should have painted or wallpapered. Just saying so you know why i need to November to get a few things in order.
OH so close! Just 2c away for me!
Congratulation Clips.
Thanks MacDunk for organisaing.
Well done noggers.
cheers
What an anti climax...
If only my mate dunks had of taken the bate last year...
:cool:
.^sc
dunc.. hard question so i dont expect you to answer.
Is NZO in an uptrend? When do you think the confirmed buy signal is..$2? $3? $10? Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?
ps. nzx must be down over 20% this year and nzo (and prc) are up oodles.
Nita,Quote:
nita-Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?
YES, play it safe and stick with auzzie oilers...
Start with, NZO.ASX...
Stock worth north of $3 when Pike and Kupe come on production...
classic rerate of developing projects... no need for exploration...
Momoho might steal the show...
:)
.^sc
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
dunc.. hard question so i dont expect you to answer.
Is NZO in an uptrend? When do you think the confirmed buy signal is..$2? $3? $10? Play it safe and stick to the ausie oilers or leave your cash in the bank?
ps. nzx must be down over 20% this year and nzo (and prc) are up oodles.
TIM you and i both know that i took my money to Australia over 18 months ago. I have had a 13% exchange gain for starters plus doubled my money nearly twice . I then got out the market predicting a downtrend leading up to a crash at the end of this year. You are very welcome to your wins but you are still a long way behind playing catch up. Please dont keep asking me about NZO i am very happy for you. Macdunk
Thanks, your move to Australia was smart but you have to concede NOG & PRC have been even more spectacular since you made your move.
Congratulations Clips - I would have been miles out if I entrered. Thanks Macdunk for the organisation. Thankyou to the oil market for getting refinery capacity so wrong that I can now gloat over a very nice paper profit. Next stop $2 ..(paul, dave- yes, New world has bollinger for $88)
Don't panic just yet, QOH. They said they are doing them in weekly batches. I imagine there was a deluge in the mail today, and likely to also be tomorrow - and remember, they said that as long as the covering envelope was postmarked before 5 p.m. tonight the relative application would be accepted, so that protects you from any Post Office delays.
(Don't ask me what happens if they can't decipher the date/time on the postmark! I imagine they would have to use their imagination - probably use a common sense approach.)
[
Tapis at a new record-now over us $148
NZO attracting lots buyers and selling pressure declining
I feel the rise in sp during july will be very rapid and the quarterly profit announcement at the end july will be phenomenal .
Lets hope no one here makes the mistake of selling a rising stock-as some did with prc.
If selling pressure continues to subside the institutions might have to pay a more reasonable price to get in .
IMO nzo at current conventional valuation of assets is about $3 but as a successful company 30 yrs experience and knowledge is worth double that .
QOH,when we had the OC's exercised a few years ago,it took weeks to sort it all out.The tail ends are usually from solicators from estates. I would not go asking them if they received yours as i did last time as it will be all chaos and the answer you get will probably be from someone too busy to check.
I think you can say it is sufficient to display publicly here that you have sent them in and even in the very unlikely event that it gets returned to you keep the return record and send it in again. I sent mine in by registred mail today. They will be earning there keep at computershare in the coming qweeks.
stone the crows.... i would like to give a long detailed anaylsis of how i settled on 178
however i can't !!. more a mixture of measured quess work and hope ..
management did state getting the options in the money was an objective, and then they got the pr machine into gear...
i'm about waist deep into Nzo, have converted options.
also up to my knees in Prc..
keep in mind nothing, oil, gas, coal, commodities, property values, shares, will go up for
ever.
in this weather another log on the fire,a big glass of a deep gutsy red, and all is well.
cheers
-- thks digger, will consider settlement overnight
Has anyone else piicked up on what i see happening on the 6 Oclock news lately.
The media is IMHO sick of oil price rises and are trying to down play what is happening.Before the WTI crude price on Bloomberg was the same price reported on news.Now news is always a few dollars less. Currently Bloomberg has WTI at 142 yet news has it at 139-40. Also to further my point on TV1 tonight the business report had all down shares listed and no up.NZO should have been recorded as the only rise on the top 50 today. It seems to me as if they are trying to be nice to the hard pressed focks out there that in former good times would not interest themselves in oil stocks.
If other think the same we should put in a complaint as it is there job to report it as it is.They haven't.
hi digger,
i saw it tonight too..was it for brent crude not wti?
was also a little disappointed not to see prc/nzo on the ups...
Digger: I was also annoyed by the fact that they only showed selected "down" shares, with no mention of NZO or PRC which were surely more worthy of mention than PPL (I think they mentioned that) given the volumes traded today and the continued rising trend in those two energy stocks. I think they were just trying to sensationalise the fall in the market overall. Like the property sector, the media love to exaggerate, e.g. TEL might go up say 10c on a particular day and the media talk about the price "soaring"!
Just checked bank account, and cheque has gone through. All is well with the world tonight, even the finance companies I'm invested with have paid interest tonight... hmm except for St Lawrence.
I also was disappointed that NZO and PRC's share rise wasn't mentioned on TV1 news.
I sent TVNZ an e-mail last night bemoaning (amoungst other things) their lack of coverage of NZ's resourse stocks, the fact they have 10,000's of interested listeners (shareholders), how important the impact of NZO/PRC is/will be on NZ's BOP and the fact they report on US oil rather than Singapore/Tapis + their general negativity.
No doubt will have no impact.
Tapis @ US$148.78 = NZ$195
x42,500bopd @ 12.5% = NZ$1,037,297 per day for NZO. Looking great
Anybody got any thoughts on what NZOG management might pay out as a sustainable long term dividend each year ?. I'm budgeting on 5cps minimum for the next few years ... is that too optimistic , or pessimistic.
Does anyone know how NZO holdings on the ASX would be treated by the IRD when it comes to the FDR tax? I bought my holding on the ASX and am wondering if it would be easier in the long run to have the holding transferred to the NZX (I understand this can be done, but don't know how). Any suggestions? (and in case you're wondering why I bought on the ASX -- I thought they were cheaper there, and they were at the time -- but I didn't realise that they went ex-div a week earlier over there than here -- bugger :o).
https://www-au.computershare.com/Inv...sCatalogue.asp
The above url for the Australian area of Computershare has downloadable forms for change from NZ to Aust register but not the other way. If you contacted them I am sure you could get a form to do it.
looks like the oil tanker was still loading come midnight as shipments only increased by approx 100,000 barrles and a shipment is usually 300,000 barrles
Production Performance (since 30 July 2007)
Total production to the end of June 2008: 14.2 million barrels. 13.8 million barrels shipped.
NZOG's
M
Out To Lunch if they are broker sponsored you have to get broker to do it and they charge like wounded bulls for doing it. It is usually cheaper to sell and rebuy in the NZ market
Commercial TV and radio stations are there to sell soap. They don't earn revenue from NZO, but they do earn lots of advertising $ from the likes of Telecom, Hallenstines and The Warehouse. Hence, even when it comes to reporting stock movements some brands will clearly get more exposure than others. Best to stick with Radio NZ for a more balanced report.
114m oppies converted and more to come, anyone know when these are able to be traded or is it now?
Thanks possum and 777 for the replies. :)
Sold down 1/3 of holding now, expecting some weakness next fortnight or so as leveraged types maybe sell-down newly accuired shares. But really don't want to given how well its been going so keeping 2/3s (i.e can't make my mind up what going to happen).
You'd think that any big players would have accuired holdings via the oppies rather than the shares as was cheaper to mop up a holding on the oppies.
What are peoples thoughts for the next couple of weeks from a technical standpoint?
I think most people agree the firm is still super cheap in the medium term even with the options EPS dilution.
Drone,Quote:
drone-What are peoples thoughts for the next couple of weeks from a technical standpoint
Fundamentally NZO is the cheapest stock on the NZX...
It has been since I came to this wonderful place called Sharetrader...
technically, I cant tell you about the technicals...
:)
Theres lots of Anticipated news from NZO....
Questions like...
How/when/and where Is the company going to spend NZOOD, and Tui revenue monies?
will it be an acquisiton?
will it be acerage investment? Special Dividend?
Drilling Wild cat Fund? onshore, offshore?...
...
NZO has so much cash its time to pay dividends---> or preferrably reinvest the money back into further growth of the company... Growth Path is set for years to come regardless...
This is worth $3 per share down the line...
one day perhaps $10 bucks...
All depends on what company pursues...
All the best, hold on...
:cool:
.^sc
Drone,
Not sure if you wish to tell us how brainy you are.
Assume 100% Options would be exercised: -
It would add cash ~$0.52 for each NZO share.
31% PRC = ~$0.54
Options + PRC = $1.06
Market share price is $1.86
That means the value from the balance of Tui reserves + cash profit from Tui revenues + Kupe reserves is $0.80
We haven’t yet had the result from Momoho. We haven’t yet seen the first coal.
Cheers
Shrewdie - perhaps NZO might be a good place to put some funds recently released from the sale of a somewhat languishing high risk ASX/AIM dual listed resource stock?
BIXBITE - mate you are right am not that brainy, just a young punter finding my way.
Can't argue with your numbers which is why I am long to the gills in NZO.
But you don't think there is a chance there might be some weakness in the next couple of weeks as $250m odd worth of shares find their way into people's pockets? People that have leveraged up to buy them and now are looking at nice paper profit, the old temeptation to lock in the gain and pay down debt...
Just a chance I think, hope I'm wrong and sanity will prevail and send the share to 250 in short order!
Cheers
ACC now at 5.72% of the ords of 374,470,843 (should go a bit higher maybe 15ish mill still to be issued - and therefore % may drop a little)
By Jonathan Underhill
Tuesday 1st July 2008
New Zealand Oil & Gas is building a war-chest for acquisitions as shareholders take up options and the company benefits from oil flowing from the Tui field.
The company raised about NZ$180 million from the sale of the options, which expired yesterday, with about 84% take-up and more in the mail, said spokesman Chris Roberts. NZOG also has been reaping its 12.5% share of Tui's production, which was 14.2 million barrels in the year ended yesterday, sold at an average US$100 a barrel.
"We do have a considerable war-chest to pursue new investments," Roberts said. "We've been looking very hard for opportunities in the last six or nine months."
The company had assessed specific opportunities in the past 12 months, taking some of them to an advanced stage, without clinching a deal. "There's certainly opportunities out there," Roberts said.
NZOG's market value has grown to about NZ$700 million from about NZ$265 million in January. Shares on issue have increased to 374 million from 262 million then. The stock rose 4.5% to NZ$1.86 today and has climbed about 55% this year.
The Tui oilfield's output helped lift New Zealand's merchandise exports 11% to a record for the month of May. The value of crude oil exports in May 2008 was $241 million, up $142 million from May 2007, according to a Statistics New Zealand report this month.
AWE is the operator of the field and largest participant, with 42.5%. Mitsui E & P Australia Pty has 35% and Pan Pacific Petroleum NL has 10%.
www.businesswire.co.nz
I think it was 11% of the options that they declared. A fair while ago thy dropped below the reporting threshhold of heads - if memory serves, so they have increased there postition overall. Or maybe it was 5.44 of the heads, and with the 11% of the options, some head selling having ended up slightly up at 5.72%... Given that more options are still to convert, I assume this could further drop and they could be back on 5.44% or lower...
more press
N.Z. Oil & Gas Got NZ$172 Million From Option Holders (Update2)
By Gavin Evans
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd., a partner in the country's Tui oil field, said investors have subscribed for about NZ$172 million ($131 million) of shares through an options offer.
The options, which expired yesterday, allowed holders to buy shares in the explorer at NZ$1.50 each. Investors holding 114.6 million options have exercised them, the Wellington-based company said in a statement to the New Zealand stock exchange.
New Zealand Oil & Gas is the best performer in the nation's benchmark NZX 50 index, gaining 61 percent this year as oil set records and Tui produced more than forecast. The company is seeking projects to invest in and last month said limited domestic options may prompt it to consider overseas ventures.
The stock rose 8 cents, or 4.5 percent, to NZ$1.86 at 5 p.m. in Wellington. It has gained 19 percent the past week after options trading ended and Tui's estimated reserves were increased to 50.1 million barrels.
New Zealand Oil & Gas owns 12.5 percent of Tui, the nation's first offshore oil project since 1996. Its other assets include a 15 percent interest in the NZ$1 billion Kupe gas project and a 31 percent stake in Pike River Coal Co.
Pike, developing a coal mine on the west coast of the country's South Island, has doubled in value the past six months as coking coal prices soared. The mine is projected to reach its coal target in August. Its shares fell 10 cents to NZ$2.35.
To contact the reporter on this story: Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 1, 2008 01:14 EDT
So that gives us US$177.5m = somewhere around NZ$230m (depending on your assumptions re the appropriate exchange rates to use. The average price per barrel, quoted by Chris, is also probably a rough figure).
But is NZ$230m somewhere in the ballpark estimates by any of our worthy contributors on this forum?
reading an old report on crown minerals site last night re kupe and it shows hydrocarbon migration from north to south.
how far south is anyones guess, but momoho is south of central field.
sure kupe 5 is further south, but maybe [hopefully] the hydrocarbons did not make it that far in quantity and kupe 5 represents spill oil from the momoho structure.
now that options out of the way it would be nice if nzo could provide a more detailed expectation at momoho - something that they could not do at time of spudding due to the options restrictions.
read on this thread that the drill is testing both sides of a fault, but can't recall anything from nzo in that regards
M
World economy turns investors from NZ
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10519465
Not great news except for the following 2 extracts
"Skyrocketing oil prices, however, were good news for New Zealand Oil and Gas, which posted a gross return of 11.9 per cent for the month, the best performance among the market's top 50 stocks."
and
"Bucking the trend, the NZX Small Cap Index was up by 4.7 per cent, but this was entirely due to the index's largest stock, Pike River Coal, surging 133 per cent over the period."
Be interesting to see if there are new significant holders post the options.
Let's hope mate, something to keep an eye on anyway. Looks like quite a few retail punters off-loading in the last couple of hours, has just been chipping down on smallish volume. I agree after a week or so we should be clear of any "abnormal" market conditions due to option conversion and subsequent shakeout.
Cheers
Well done Trackers - have done the same, should be north of 2.00 soon and well north if/when Momoho comes in. Would like to think the drill announcement tommorrow will remind those selling down that they have been a bit premature. In addition there is Colin's estimate of 200-230mil from Tui (can't see why it won't be close to that) & paper profit from PRC to be reported soon - onwards & upwards - and at 1.87 its still up on yesterday!
Hmm 80/82 - 6% off the high of the day
lets hope tommorow is better......
Very strong buying at beginning of everyday this week then a few profit takers /desperate sellers at end day.
Best now to ignore the sp and sit on your hands rather than trying to trade-you can hurt yourself jumping off an escalator .
Many made the mistake of selling prc-never sell a share thats going up
Every trading day is surprising. Can't see why anyone would sell now - - can anyone make sense of that? Anyhow - could all those people who are planning to sell tomorrow please reconsider - - you are not helping in my efforts to make a small fortune in a hurry - Thankyou.
By the way - has anyone got access/copies of INFORMATIVE geological maps of the Kupe/Momoho area? The PR maps on the NZO site don't reveal much.
Bit of profit taking reasonably appealing I guess in an average market
Todays trading in light of recent events is more of a non event. Some profit takers and during the day the buyers lacked depth.
Also i cannot blame invesntors who are extremely highly levereaged to resposition themselves. A bit like taking insurance.
Medium to long term investors should not be dettered in the slightest about daily movements of the sp. whether up or down doesnt matter. it only matters when you come to sell.
More interesting times over the next few months...looking forward to it
well, I ended up exercising more than planned for and have slightly stretched my finances short term and have to sell down about 8% of my total holding before July 20th... looking for a continuation of the uptrend before then and did not sell today though - I have a loose stop loss in place for the portion I need to sell, but intend to hold on to the balance...
Why would you need a stop/loss when clearly you would be making money!?
hmmm.... the generally accepted term for a sell order triggered at a specified level below the market price is a "stop/loss order".... but you are correct.... strictly speaking it is not a loss... so let's call it a "minimise profit erosion order"... doesn't quite roll of the tongue though, does it...?
NZ's oil output soars in past year
5:00AM Thursday July 03, 2008
By Grant Bradley
New Zealand's self-sufficiency in oil more than doubled last year, due to the offshore Tui field coming on stream and greater production from the Pohokura project in Taranaki.
In 2006 the country was 14 per cent self-sufficient but this climbed to 32 per cent last year, still down from a peak of 55 per cent in 1997, according to Ministry of Economic Development figures.
Around the time of the 1974 oil shock the country was just 4 per cent self-sufficient, calculated as domestic oil production divided by total domestic consumption.
Use of petroleum products climbed by 1 per cent last year. Petrol and diesel dominate fuel consumption, accounting for 44 per cent and 42 per cent respectively
The ministry report says oil and condensate reserves jumped 53 per cent last year. Estimates of remaining reserves in the country's producing oil fields rose to 148.3 million barrels at January 1, from 97.1 million barrels a year earlier.
Tui, which started production a year ago, accounted for about 35 million barrels of the increase. Its total reserves have since been upgraded to 50.1 million barrels by operator Australian Worldwide Exploration.
Remaining in the offshore Pohokura field, owned by Shell, OMV, and Wellington's Todd Energy, increased 30 per cent to 55.9 million barrels. Liquid reserves in the partners' Maui field rose 9 per cent to 24.1 million barrels.
Gas reserves increased 10 per cent to 2.03 trillion cu ft, driven by a 16 per cent gain at Pohokura to 908 billion cu ft and a 13 per cent improvement at Maui to 439 billion cu ft.
The figures show that total energy used by consumers grew by 1 per cent between 2006 and 2007.
Since 1990 the economy has outstripped that rate of energy use.
This represents an improvement of energy efficiency of almost 15 per cent.
In the same period energy use per person grew by 10 per cent. New Zealanders' annual energy demand was equivalent to approximately 3400 litres of petrol per person last year.
Average electricity prices increased by 3.2 per cent after price falls the previous year.
Generation from non-renewable energy sources (fossil fuels and waste heat) was 1 per cent less in 2007 than in 2006.
While coal-fired generation was sharply down, gas was up by 21.9 per cent.
Wind energy, which accounted for 2.2 per cent of total electricity generation, almost doubled from 2006.
Total wind capacity increased by 88 per cent to 322MW by the end of 2007.
New Zealand Wind Energy Association chief executive Fraser Clark said greater wind generation would help to keep electricity prices down as the cost of thermal generation rose.
"The cost of wind generation is not affected by the increasing price of fossil fuels or the cost of carbon emissions."
NZO is fascinating. I wonder what is going to happen today - hoping for it to climb back over $1.90 where it rightfully should be. However, I suspect we may see a bit more of a sell down.
US crude above $144 after the NY close, so tapis should head up to maybe $148ish.
A key event for us NOGers is the next OCR review on 24 July. There is a chance that the RB may cut rates, the money markets are pricing in a chance (not a likelihood) of this. If they do the kiwi will drop sharply and likely head sub 70c in short order which as you all know would significantly improve our NZD denominated earnings. In anycase September will see rate cuts and decline in the kiwi. The economic bad news is relentless, the next to really jump will be the unemployment numbers, when that happens watch the housing market really suffer as people are forced to take market prices when their circumstances change.
All this will affect monetary policy and therefore the exchange rates and therefore NZOs profit as we are an exporter..
Cheers
Drone, Tapis was $148 yesterday - if it follows WTI it could well top $150 today.
Yes, amazing, what will petrol at the pump be if $NZ drops below 70??!
What will NZO sp be?? Both $3 maybe? Yowza!!
Tim, BigBob doesn't tell us how or where he set his stop, but I wonder if he was in fact referring to a trailing stop. As I'm sure you know, this is a stop that is not fixed, but keeps on automatically ratcheting up (never falling) as the shareprice rises. Trailing stops are designed to protect profits by triggering a Sell signal when a stock drops from its peak by more than a preset percentage. I would suggest that a suitable value trailing stop for the current NZO uptrend would be 8.5%, as plotted below in red. Any value lower than this would have had you flicked out way back in March and higher values, while less likely to be hit, would mean giving more back to the market when they are eventually triggered.
Notice how the On Balance Volume indicator is moving in synch with the shareprice - ie there are no divergences. These are formed when OBV and shareprice move in different directions and give insight into underlying market strength or weakness. A rising OBV being bullish and a falling OBV bearish. In other words, there is nothing in the OBV to impugn the current uptrend.
Up until last month we had only a tentative trendline for NZO, but see how price action has reversed again exactly at the trendline, so we now have a confirmed trendline in place. A break below this would give a sell signal. You can see here that current price action is well above any of the indicators shown here.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NZO73.gif
NZO
03/07/2008
MINE
REL: 0927 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: Momoho Exploration Well Disclosure Notice
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd (NZOG) advises that as at 2.00pm on 2 July, the
following operations have been completed on Momoho 1:
- The 17 inch section has been drilled to a final depth of 1,845m MDRT
(measured depth below rotary table).
- The 13-3/8 inch casing has been run and cemented as programmed.
- The Blow-Out Preventers (BOPs) are currently being pressure tested.
Over the coming week, the rig is expected to drill the 12-1/4 inch section
and run the 9-5/8 inch casing.
Momoho is an exploration well 6 kms southeast of the Kupe central field, off
the coast of South Taranaki. Drilling began on 13 June 2008 and progress to
date is summarised as follows:
Well section: 36inch 22inch 17inch 12 1/4inch
8-1/2inch
Planned Depth: 170.5m 550m 1,830m 2,855m 3,142.5m
Actual Depth*: 180m 561m 1,845m
*Depths are cumulative and show total well depth measured below the rotary
table (MDRT).
The well is expected to take approximately 51 days to drill.
Partners in the Kupe permit PML38146 are:
Origin Energy Limited (through its subsidiary Origin
Energy Resources (Kupe) Limited)
50% (Operator)
Genesis Energy (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
31%
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (through wholly owned subsidiaries)
15%
Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd
4%
Hi Phaedrus, yes that is the correct term (sorry Tim)... I am trailing slightly looser than what you suggest and I am also taking other TA signals into account (not that I'm that good at TA)... for what it's worth my stop is slightly below the confirmed trendline and on the other side of last week's gap...
I use
http://www.upstreamonline.com/market...id=markets_oil
Aaah,the forecaster's curse! $NZ up and NZO down since I suggested the opposite a few hours ago. I promise not to do that again.