I'm hearing there may not be so much easy spending money available this time around and that Kiwis went big on buying stuff during and after last lockdown and have less disposable income now.
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I'm hearing there may not be so much easy spending money available this time around and that Kiwis went big on buying stuff during and after last lockdown and have less disposable income now.
That doesn’t seem to make any sense on the face of it: retail spending has been elevated since last years lockdown for over 14 months straight. Why would it not resume its strong performance after this lockdown when people haven’t been able to spend any of their disposable income?
$9 Billion a year is normally spent by Kiwi's travelling overseas. Interest rates are close to all time lows so there's more disposable money that people normally make on their mortgage payments there too.
With the obvious exception of most of the people on here we are a nation of spenders and almost all that money for the foreseeable future will be spent on retail in New Zealand. Probably can't go wrong with any of the retail stocks for the foreseeable future but for what its worth I prefer WHS, HLG and TRA.
Delivery of food update. I ordered about $150 of food items and one stationary item on Monday evening last week.
One of my best mates also ordered a similar quantity of food. Importantly no other food outlet we know of would delivery grocery items for either of us in lockdown level 4, (most supermarkets appear to have rationed this to 70 years old plus and people with special needs).
For both my friend and I all items were delivered within 5 working days, most within 3 working days. I don't think that's too bad in the circumstances.
That would be nice,happy holder since taking up some in the selldown a while back.Just anecdotal sharing what I've heard around my sphere,by no means accurate overall.The other thing is int rates,the only way from here is up.
Close 386 …equals multi-year high
Tomorrow will see that new high
Click and collect that $4 price tomorow.
Does anyone have any more information about what exactly the WHS growth strategy is that refers to the “building & trade” sector?
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:h...2-29eb9bd8bdbe
Attachment 12934
This is setting up for confirmation of a monthly bull flag, leading to the potential of further large moves over the coming months (refer to my previous posts). If we get confirmation then $4.50 should be on the cards at minimum. Daily, weekly and monthly uptrends intact. Playing trends on monthly timeframes just requires patience for them to play out.
I see two scenarios as most likely:
1. We have a bull flag pullback from the double top (likely on the weekly chart), before breaking the resistance and confirming monthly bull flag. In my view any pullpack from resistance will be for buying (unless news or red flags develop e.g. increased selling volume)
2. Breaking straight through the $3.86 resistance to confirm bull flag
A double top is a possible scenario to be aware of, however my view would be that this is only really possible with a negative news or sentiment event.
Disc: large long term position and trading around the edges.
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yes I agree. Was curious to know what channel they actually operate in already. Maybe it’s for built in appliances in new builds (ovens/dishwashers/heat pumps) that WHS can source through its existing supply chain for Noel Leeming. Would love to see WHS get into the duopoly building supplies products like insulation and plasterboard etc using their international supply chain.
ANL Singapore announcing this morning a "high season surcharge" of $600 per 40' import container with other shipping lines expected to follow. A 40 footer from China now edging towards $13k, up from $2k a few years ago. Importers will need to push these huge additional costs into prices.
The garden centre they have at Lyall Bay can’t be a great money spinner ….never seen anybody in it and the state of most plants suggest they don’t move stock much ..and have a fair bit of wastage
makes jewelers look like a great retail area in the current environment - can fit an entire years inventory needs on one air cargo flight, minimal shipping costs when people shop online, and the needed lease footprint and staffing requirements are tiny in the event of lockdown closures. One must think WHS had a good reason though to remove jewelry section from its stores (I guess it did require an additional staff member to always be manning it). I still think it’s a good area they should consider expanding into as another retail chain by way of acquisition (Walker and Hall would be good).
Normans probably 'advised' WHS to close up their instore jewelry kiosks. Not enough room for two discount, no frills jewelers, in this country. Pascoe's got that space covered
Currently 3.88 up 2c today... small but significant move
Yeap, fresh multi year high but they're just starting to get their mojo back in my opinion. Onward and upward to $7 again :t_up:
"Onward and upward to $7 again"
:ohmy:
:scared:
7 dollars? Gosh or as that sporty chap in the sky broadband advert says... "Phwoof"
fixed that post now lol
Maybe they overspent last time. Looks like an inflexion point in this chart, see below, bounce coming?
"New data from Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) show card spending is beginning to bounce back from the previous week.
BNZ Chief Economist, Paul Conway, says, “There are tentative signs that the bounce back from the lockdown is underway, with card spending up 12 per cent on last week. It is now sitting at 37 per cent below pre-lockdown levels."
Read more »
34% of the country is still in level 4 lockdown, while the other 66% of the country was still in level 3/4 lockdown for the period covered in that card data. Retail spending is best judged by when entire country is back to at least level 2. Even then, card spending includes hospitality/accommodation etc which will still be negatively impacted by level 2 restrictions.
Yep,keep our eyes on that chart
Looks like an inflexion point in that chart, , bounce coming hopefully.
Mr B has been the first to warn of future price movements to the upside. This should surely focus minds on the areas of the business likely to generate a lift in EBITDA.
Thanks but to be fair many other experienced investors have noted this as a great buy.
I am really looking forward to the result on 29th and getting a steer on how this is going to grow further in FY22. I think the analysts have this one well and truly wrong with their FY22 average estimate of $110m. I foresee the so called one-off effect of Covid that is likely to generate more than $170m normalized profit in FY21 as being enduring for many years and that's what's going to be part of the driver behind price appreciation in the years ahead as well as Torpedo 7 gaining more critical mass as more people embrace the Kiwi outdoors and the market.com gaining momentum. Store within a store to start gaining more momentum in FY22 and future years too as well as some store rationalization with their WALT of just 4 years and they enhance their digital footprint.
Torpedo 7 to open store in Invercargill soon
That'll help their growth Beagle
A welcome gang busting prediction.
new store covers a city population of 60,000 hardy souls.
Stunning location and gateway to hopefully one day a booming tourism location...although lets hope QST gets back there in a few years time.
Still see i taking another 3 years for the international visitors to clear the border in any numbers.
I do know a local Irainian wo has cleared MIQ to central europe germany 3 times in the last 12 months who has stayed virus free.
I grew up as a little wee puppy down there, awesome place. Mrs B is keen to go back and get up close and personal with a close encounter...I'm not brave enough but will definitely come along and watch...just need to make sure she updates her will first lol. https://www.sharkexperience.co.nz/
“Torpedo7 chief operating officer Garth Sutherland confirmed its first physical store in Invercargill would be located in Leven St, a 1200sqm space previously occupied by Warehouse Stationery which closed this year.‘
This is exactly what I suspect is also happening in Lower Hutt: Warehouse Stationary is probably relocating into queensgate warehouse (which is currently undergoing an extensive renovation) leaving a large empty space for the first Torpedo7 to open in Wellington (other than the one in Porirua)
Excellent example of WHS expanding its retail offerings in new locations, without needing to use any more retail footprint.
All makes good sense he. Am I happy holder.
Definitely has been a gap in their store network. Good potential and market for them.
Makes sense to use an existing store within the wider company, but a little disappointing not part of the inner city development in Invers. The Warehouse and Farmers currently slightly out of the centre, behind E.Hayes (where the Worlds Fastest Indian lives). Farmers is going into the new development, so Warehouse, Noel Leeming and now T7, along with Kathmandu will still be in the old location, 5-6 blocks away.
Latest — Invercargill Central Ltd
may need an escort to keep all the other traffic out of the way if media coverage of antics in the Southern most
Local Busy Body chamber are anything to go by .. ;)
Wonder if WHS have a model with large inflatable self protection pads & bubbles, stabiliser wheels for the unstable & dottery
and flashing warning lights built in especially for certain patrons ? ;)
obviously these wont be too suitable for towing any sort of concrete mixer (a model miniature tucked in a pocket may suffice) .. ;)
Nothing like an election in Invercargill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humours_of_an_Election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humour...ogarth_029.jpg
A few years ago our Nick was talking to a group of people (me included of course) about the future of business etc etc
Besides his omnichannel ecosystem blah blah he did mention the ‘bionic company’
Maybe he’s developed his thinking and heading that way
Boston Consulting love talking about the Bionic Company and bionic transformation
https://www.bcg.com/en-au/capabiliti...bionic-company
TWG is on a roll …go TWG
Thought WHS supposed to be at 4 bucks now?
1 year chart is a pretty picture
I remember a few of those briefings back then - when Nick had surrounded himself with his US exec team bought to NZ who were taking their plays straight out of the Amazon playbook - bionic attributes, data mining customer data (remember the infamous Cambridge data exposure), 30 min guaranteed on-line delivery etc etc - it was a suppliers dream with big budgets, big dreams and questionable compromises. Nick is last man standing with perhaps a few of his supporters "found out" - which bought the business time to get the basics sorted to enable it to grow and now keep growing. I wonder what next for the CEO ..... and when
Analysts probably subscribing to the thesis doing the rounds in that this time post lockdown bounce won’t be as robust as previous and that looking forward once we all get vaccinated there won’t be any more lockdowns but there will be many cases of covid through out the country and consumers will be a bit worried and above no more government subsidies to struggling businesses and there will be casualties etc etc …in other words the next year might be a bit tough in retail ……and several feel that margins can’t expand forever (current expansion a bit of a one off)
Who knows what’ll happen in retail in this new world of living with covid ……and the market seems a bit wary as well (WHS and HLG in particular)
Fair point and consumers will be facing headwinds from higher interest rates too and I don't think shipping costs are going to normalize anytime soon either. That said I think the WHS are best placed of the retailers to manage their shipping costs due to their scale and tougher times will drive people more towards value buying decisions so WHS is well placed to gain market share.
That’s a good post W69, definitely food for thought. I just can’t help coming back to the simple equation:
no travel= good for retail.
And now that I think about it, when we get to the, ‘living with COVID’ stage, who is going to risk traveling? Imagine getting COVID on holiday to Europe or North America or Asia. No thanks. Travel probably depressed for years and years until we get to, herd immunity stage.
Well said, I couldn't agree more. $9 Billion a year that used to be spent on international travel is going to be spend somewhere and a fair portion of that will be on retail generally and specifically new outdoor experiences that embrace the great outdoors in N.Z. (Torpedo 7).
Playing around with Stats NZ Retail sales data (exc motor related and accommodation) I've come up with 'retail sales in NZ are currently running at around $2 billion (annual) more (+2.5%) than where we would have expected them to be if we had no covid impacts'
Excitment due from lockdown release and no overseas travel ...who knows
Pretty good eh
"and the market seems a bit wary as well'
and that lets you in at a very good P/E
after all WHS is not really a quick trade stock.
Beside some travel opening up there wont be a rush for the border in the next 12 months to travel widely.
Those who do travel will be with PPE and very careful probably with pooled information from those who have made it there and back.
Like in the old days of travel many centuries past.
Remember Dubrovnik . It has its own MIQ facilities from the 1600's onward.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/videos/travel/2021/07/27/dubrovnik-croatia-reconnect-quests-world-of-wonder-spc.cnn
It is good and set to continue. Don't think my pilgrimage / trip of a lifetime to see the Gardyne Castle in Scotland where my Mum's ancestors grew up will be happening any year soon. https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&ajaxserp=0
so there's plenty of domestic spending coming in the years ahead from this old mutt.
This is on my bucket list too, you done this trip yet mate ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MCLa9bcmaA
From my small snapshot of New Zealand, I just see people getting out and about doing stuff. It's just awesome. As an example, some of my quiet local trout fishing rivers have become really popular with all sorts of people, young, old, experienced and newbies. Our local mountain bike park and tramping areas also are going off. I know the lastest lockdown is a challenge but overall people seem to be embracing adventure. To do this, requires stuff. And IMO people seem happy to buy stuff to support their adventures. I actually think it's healthy for everyone and as a consequence, WHS earning too. Bring ng on the summer.
You’ll get to that castle one day …..I’ve been near it but not to it
Strangely never really been attracted to Switzerland
Iceland pretty good though. Been to summit of Eyjafjallajökull in a Jeep. If one went there now this is a spectacular sight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AM9P_xG0dcU
The shops are absolutely fuming in Wellington, feels like Christmas Eve.
Very cool video Winner, thanks for sharing. Need to start spending my WHS dividends on outdoor equipment at Torpedo 7. WOW some of their E Bikes are 50% off, that's nuts ! https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/shop/bike/electric-bikes
This one looks pretty good ….esp if going to do the cycle trails ..reputable dealer
https://www.evocycles.co.nz/Product/...greytrek-black
Get a real bike and do the hard work its better for you....:eek2:
harden up ..... :D
if you have a heart condition ok but otherwise its a cope out..
https://www.torpedo7.co.nz/products/...t7b1en9v2fa180 Might start with this and if I find I'm "into it" upgrade to some fancy bit of kit later on.
One consequence of investing in WHS is that Google who whoever does these things make Warehouse ads come up on the screen
Like today's one
thewarehouse Better products without costing the earth
Warehouse Group still doing greemwashing stuff I see
True, some of the warehouse packaging is awful - bought recently a really great and good quality cell phone holder for the car, however didn't realize it comes with a ton of not even recyclable plastic as packaging.
Many of their products however are quite good (and even sell without packaging :): We've been yesterday in town to buy some clothes for a toddler. Left some of the specialist stores pretty disillusioned and found afterwards in the Warehouse good looking and good quality childrens gear.
Discl: happy holder;
I was talking to someone about WHS the other day and they think that some might try to to takeover WHS, what do you think?
"Tim Tams and Shrewsbury biscuit's"
dangerous , very dangerous , lethal .... :eek2: ... very high octane ...
Just one more week of level 4 in Auckland “In principle” (eg depends on mystery cases continuing to decrease). Other lockdown impacted stocks bounced on the announcement - WHS a bit of an outlier ending down on the day.
see the analysts have been steadily upgrading warehouse. est of div in my opinion 15 - 20c with a special. special being as an insurance to having a bigger div now but only having to reduce it later due to maybe a slight pull back in retail spend
Impressive Briscoes result today. Particularly impressed they were able to build their inventory so well ahead of the big Xmas period.
Staff at a Warehouse distribution centre in Auckland have felt unsafe leaving work after dark this week after a woman's body was found nearby.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/manure...R7SLYVYHKOSM4/
This doesn’t exactly inspire confidence: WHS chief sales officer resigns effectively immediately:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379274
Quote:
The Warehouse Group Chief Sales Officer Tim Edwards steps down from his role
The Warehouse Group confirms that Chief Sales Officer Tim Edwards has resigned from his role, with effect from 16 September 2021.
Tim has been with The Warehouse Group since 2009, in the roles of CEO Noel Leeming and CEO Torpedo7 before taking on his current role.
During his time with The Warehouse Group, the Noel Leeming brand has grown significantly, achieving over $1 billion in annual sales in FY20 and is New Zealand's authority in appliances, technology, and services. Noel Leeming has also grown its Services and Commercial businesses over the last few years.
A year ago Tim moved to be the Group’s Chief Sales Officer and since that time has supported the business through a period of significant transformation.
The Warehouse Group CEO Nick Grayston has wished Tim well and noted that the group sales function is in a strong position to ensure there is continuity in delivering to TWG customers.
Many people choose to value different things after the pandemic.
Maybe Nick is a prick to work for. Maybe he wanted to stay a CEO. Maybe sakes are mot as good as exoected. Could be many reasons but very quick departure all the same
MR B says 7 dollars.... now that would give Briscoes a run for its money.
lets face it this stock is not the glam yet.
Maybe he got bored...and not paid as much as he wanted.
post was from the 7th
so far it has done what I said. Short term stuff sure... but candles are still bearish so far. ...and there is that divergence.
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