Nasdaq seems to have fared the worst. Tomorrow will probably bring a bit more certainty as to whether the fear is still around--seems to have leveled off for now.
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Nasdaq seems to have fared the worst. Tomorrow will probably bring a bit more certainty as to whether the fear is still around--seems to have leveled off for now.
Whats going on ? Asb not functioning? No sales. Exchange down?
Going ok on Direct ($2.65)
Apparently their IT is giving it "top priority"
Problem at their end - not time to resolution yet - yay
My SPARK, is down for NZ, but loading pre prices for AU stocks, any one else with SPARK having the same issue.
Cheers
Looks like most are happy with the fact that Stock market didnt continue to slide or has taken a ''breather''
I do however think that it shows that any share can be influenced by outside market forces--good to note
The ides of March are looking to be quite interesting for Pacific Edge;
There is the anticipated NZ50 listing on 12th March, and we should expect an announcement on 16th March as David Darling presents the DHB user group programme study results to the regional USANZ urology conference in Brisbane.
And, would it not potentially make a desirable focal point in time for a CEO to boldly be able to stand up and tell the audience that they are about to launch a new product and that they had just signed up a major health organisation.
Guidance for the launch of Cxbladder(triage) is for Q2 2014. Guidance for the sign up of Medicare is for ‘hopefully’ early 2014.
Six weeks away, interesting indeed.
http://www.usanz2014.com/uploads/677...l%20sponex.pdf
Indeed. One year on from my initial purchase of PEB. Seemed fortuitous at the time and remains so.
CDY aka cellmid confirmed today they sold all their holding in PEB. They supply biomarker a to PEB on a licence agreement.
A nice story in todays ODT - also includes a bit about some other well performing companies that you might have heard of.
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...ector-thriving
Companies with this sort of technological edge are a little rare in NZ and are unfamiliar to many of us, these sorts of growth rates though are not uncommon abroad in a greater context of companies which develop new technologies with new value propositions.
It is a complex company and sector, it was some time ago now but it took me a good six months to scramble together enough information and analysis before I became satisfied and comfortable enough to invest long term.
Saleability risk also goes both ways too, if PEB get ahead of the sales curve there becomes a compounding growth effect. Earlier cashflow’s allow for the earlier market release of the pipeline products, some of which are ready and waiting now.
Given the humble and understated business culture Pacific Edge seem to have I would not rule this possibility out.
I think PEB see cxbladder being used by urologists in the US as an aid against being sued.
From the last half year report:
The drivers of adoption in the USA are different to those
in New Zealand and Australia. Whilst still driven to provide
the best clinical outcome for patients, clinicians in
the USA work in a litigious operating environment that
encourages the adoption of new technology where that
technology provides an accurate non-invasive clinical
perspective for both patients and clinicians. Cxbladder
has shown over the last six months that it meets the
clinical hurdles faced by urologists and also offers the
clinician a means of increasing their probability of
successful cancer detection and thereby reducing the
potential risk of any litigation that could arise with a
poor clinical evaluation and tumour detection process.
"Cxbladder boosting confidence in bladder cancer detection"
Thats a nice little confirmation on the quality of the product I guess.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/246470
Wonder what this announcement will do for the share price, its not a ton, but at least it may quench the thirst of those asking for an announcement.
“I have been using Cxbladder extensively since June 2011. Over that time period, Cxbladder has proven to be the most accurate, non-invasive test for monitoring patients with either hematuria or known bladder cancer.” says Dr. Joe DiTrolio, a Board Certified Urologist, Professor of Surgery, Section of Urology/Department of Surgery Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.
Wow finally something to excite the market. About time
Agree Sparky, its a teaser... consider it like mating Horses at a stud.
Probably get the money shot shortly.. this week I reckon.. end of month is when deals are signed.
Cheers
Yes, an infomercial, but it alludes to the 'wall of dissonance' being eroded IMO
Hm....the announcement gives a bit strange feeling to me because it is just simply a piece of PR news instead of something important to be published as an announcement.
I wonder what the real purpose behind of publishing this advertising article as an announcement bythe CEO of PEB USA.
The article does not give us any proof of how the confidence has been being boosted. I guess they need to publish more results from their user programmes in order to validate their claim in the title of the article. :confused::confused::confused:
Here's some good news for anyone PEB holders still holding CDY...
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au...ina-52294.html
One of the challenges that any new value proposition faces is leaping recognition hurdles.
In a sector that must for our wellbeing be very conservative this sort of endorsement for Pacific Edge diagnostics is very important for securing the confidence of health professionals.
It’s another good and positive step on a five year road.
Practitioner/Specialist endorsement - hugely important - as in some ways these are the customers of PEB. - they are the people that decide the diagnostic workup and if a cxbladder test is included in the workup and carried out on a patient. Obviously in the states there will be SOP's / guidelines created by hospitals for doctors to follow (mainly to preven litigation) - so CXBladder need to be in these as well - but these are created by management who have medical degrees. So the fact this endorsement is coming from uroligists is extremely pleasing as the biggest barrier is for a product to be recognised, talked about and then actually used on patients.
Hope that the endorsement by the credited urologist at least indicates the level of acceptance of the product by the urologist overall in USA.
I would like to hear more about the patient side of story as well. :)
Dr Joe Ditrolio seems to have given it a good workout if he has been using cxbladder since june 2011.
Good things take time.:)
Announcement looks like it's info aimed at other urologists as a PR.
They're probably just flicking it to shareholders, as well, as a bit of fodder to maintain confidence. Which it has for me.
Moosie - don't worry. Not suing. Enjoy your drinks tonight. Sorry I can't make it.
Sparky - agree but that suggests a contract announcement. This was a PR puff piece to support the current price. Less predicable but internally probably planned more in advance.
Pacific Edge's aim is that cxbladder will both become integral to and complement those very clinical guidelines as well as offering a value proposition such that the augmented guidelines will require a third less cost for each work up.
In addition, in some instances, a partial displacement of invasive tests should lower litigation risks for urologists as all invasive medical procedures carry a risk of malpractice.
Maintaining confidence to ensure the required price level to enter the nzx50 perhaps with room for error. The price had already corrected itself from mondays little jaunt to 1.50. So maybe not. Ok, a softener for something bigger coming soon ?
Kindest regards
Minerbarejet
Pebble
[/QUOTE]
Therefore this wonderful idea from some investors that PEB will achieve 10's of thousands of test by year end is a myth.[/QUOTE]
My understanding is that this came from Mr Swann - not from a collective of investors.
Aren't you all glad I kept on about them needing an announcement, any sort of announcement to add a bit of excitement.
Interesting if not strange comment from minor saying this could be about maintaining confidence to ensure the required price level to enter the nzx50 perhaps with room for error. Others seem to think any announcement are good idea now. I thought they were a mature sensible steady as she goes outfit that didn't need to jack up the hype.
Glad I took the suggested walk around the block to get a life ......but did send off a note to PEB saying they needed to say something.
Off course I'll say they finally listened ......but what a load of old proverbial that is winner.
Therefore this wonderful idea from some investors that PEB will achieve 10's of thousands of test by year end is a myth.[/QUOTE]
My understanding is that this came from Mr Swann - not from a collective of investors.[/QUOTE]
Absolutely correct.
We await developments.
Cheers
Overseas markets looking edgy--It will be interesting to see whether things like yesterdays announcement or outside markets have the greatest effect on SP
That may be true-but so far the markets are not liking the fed taking off some of the ''life support'' and things are starting to hot up in some emerging countries.
Im not saying this will necessarily affect PEB,but its a good thing to monitor to help with decisions.
Some things fare better than others in rocky markets ,but nothing is immune. (if things get worse)
I remember some years back-the first thing I would look at was the particular shares I owned--Then things turned and I would find myself looking to see what the overseas markets did before anything else as that became the more important factor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25422442
Right decision. Turkey and SA raised theirs to shore up their currency. We dont need any help with that. Inflation still within the range and any increase will be caused in part, by the chch rebuild. restrictions for home lending are still new so they need to be given time to flow through. Election year also brings uncertainty.
And most importantly of all, all of my debt is floating and I have no intention of locking in.
Why I dont fix: http://www.hivenews.co.nz/articles/3...ate-economists
Attachment 5409
Thread drift.
He a good guy that Rodney
Once worked at the RB and sort of knows how they work
But wasn't Rodney saying that this time the economic forecasting gurus might have got it 'roughly right'
And reading between the lines the sensible thing to do would have been to raise rates thios morning?
Yes, back to Pacific Edge and the sufferers of cancer;
From the 2008 cancer statistics, which PEB reference, the HY18 goal of US$100M revenues at a price point of US$550 represents (181,818/1,825,600) = 10% of the annual assay’s performed in the US, or 10% of the market share to you and I.
Thus, the HY18 goal essentially represents an aim of achieving a humble 10% market share within the next five years.
The 2013 cancer statistics are now available and it is apparent that since 2008 the market (of poor unfortunates) itself has expanded during that five years by 5.5%. At that growth rate perhaps it will expand by yet another 5.5% by the time HY18 rolls around.
Thus, in this context the PEB goal of 10% market share just seems to represent roughly equivalency with the probable increase in overall sector growth.
As time goes by and the more information we receive about the roll out of cxbladder the more it seems to me that the five year plan might actually be a little understated. But, as we know that seems to be the Pacific Edge way.
Add to this the new proposition of tests Cxbladder(triage), Cxbladder(predict), and Cxbladder(Health), and it starts to seem possible that PEB may actually do a little better than 10% market share.
REFERENCES:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...2007.0010/full
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/143330.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...%257C256988400
Encouraging info MAC. Thanks for posting
This conversation started as a consideration of just how much (if any) outside markets affect PEB (your shares) Its good information to know---so far the PR machine is still cranking out news but SP is down a bit so it may be outside markets--my point is ,its good to stay on top of both PEB and outside markets,if for no other reason than to buy on the dips (but it could save your bacon)
PEB is one of very few companies on the NZX with intangible asset clout. Their IP IS their product. But sales are where we are at now. It's interesting to think that this company has morphed into something much different than what they set out to be. Commercialising their own products was never on the radar so this is the hardest thing about keeping faith in PEB. Can they become the best second hand car dealers in town?
It has been a big leap from lab based R&D, a will to establish IP and to just look for royalties, to retaining all that commercial potential in-house, capitalising and establishing a going business concern.
Quite an inspiration for other NZ companies to not just roll over and sell their IP to others I think.
There was an interesting interview article with DD where he talks about how that opportunity came about.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/185138.pdf
Well - big time sellers (of many small lots) flummox me! SP has been happily moving up on no news whatsoever and then when we get what I think is a good announcement (encouraging at the very least) these big time sellers drive the price lower. Makes me think there are many holders out there (not just in PEB either) that are sitting over their computers sweating every little movement, reading some of the negative sounding posts on S/T and getting themselves into a shaking frenzy and it all gets too much for them.... I can just picture the look .....:eek2::scared::ohmy::cursing::crying::angry:. Finally they just can't stand it any more and the finger shaking over the "SELL" button drops onto the left clicking part of the mouse (sounds like moose if you are from bonny Scotland)!!.
All this time the investors have been hovering over the "BUY" button ..............
Steady on Dentie--still higher than last week--your getting a bit spoiled if you think its always going to rise no matter what:)
Being a long termer, the short term "up and back" lurching means nothing. As plenty of others before me have stated...the story hasn't changed with PEB - it has been all positive stuff from what I believe to be a great firm. If the sales aren't there as expected, or they get sued out of existence by the yanks for something or their product\s get overtaken etc etc , then that's a different story. I haven't seen anything as yet that would make me want to hit the "sell" button. If I had more available dosh, I would be opening my purse now!!
I would have thought the traders got out yesterday, on the basis that the announcement was probably it for this month. (I did, trading lot only, 171 :mellow:)
Don't see any pressing reason for long termers to be worried if no further announcement tomorrow, but we'll see I guess. Not much liquidity left on buyside after yesterday, so could be interesting
PEB's Australian sister company, Cellmid (CDY.ASX) doing well off this week's announcement of a deal in China to sell, not cxBladder but, hair tonic! Up another 10% today. Has anyone else bought into this recently?
Edit: make that 13%. I know they have a royalty arrangement with PEB - I must look into understanding it better.
I missed that one (Cellmid). Was prepared to pay 3c but not 3.1c :P missed out though!
Look at PBT, going nuts.
What a week, big drop off to 1.50, great news re urology approval, a recovery, a short dip again and a strong finish on a Friday. Roll on Monday:)
Bobcat I've put similar funds into PEB and CDY based on the royalty PEB pays over the long term for sales of 2 percent from my understanding. PEB have already issues just over a million shares as a milestone payment which have been sold around 80c a share last year.
I would think their portfolio of IP biomarkers might be used on further PEB developments but can't confirm that.
PEB is still my favourite pic from the two but the penny dreadful will hit 6c before PEB hits 3.75
1.50?(I think you mean 1.60)
I found that aside from the announcement it has roughly followed the fluctuations in the US stock market.
The US market had a few scarey days,then had a great Thurs(recouped losses) and then slid again on Fri--It will be interesting to see if this affects Mondays trading here.
If thats the case,it means that whatever the finish to the NZ week,its not the full story.(the NZ share market made slight gains for the week, but closed just before a slide in Asian markets which would most likely had some effect)
A very rough and unpolished theory but it will be interesting to see how Monday fares.
Definately traded to 1.50 I got some on the way back up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/op...es-cancer.html
Put another tick in the non-invasive diagnostics column.
Also interesting
http://www.3news.co.nz/Ordinary-cell...7/Default.aspx
Where would they get the patented IP from without cellmid ?
A test for Cellmid may come when cxbladder(triage) is launched in just a few month’s time. It would be interesting to know if different markers have been applied or alternatively if the proprietary software just gets a tweak.
On one hand we could ask why would Pacific Edge stick with the MDK marker and continue to pay royalties when they have a whole research lab full of smart people to develop an equivalent.
But, after pursuing so many clinical trials and user group programme studies for cxbladder(detect) thus far with the MDK marker, too much change now may not be the best thing from a sales, perception and market confidence perspective.
http://www.cxbladder.com/assets/asse...20-US-REVA.pdf
Not sure CDY is heavily reliant on PEB for it's future, they have several strings to their bow: http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=779488
From their website, which is worth browsing, http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_co...ey-patents.seo
Have a few CDY based on the assumption that PEB would provide a royalty stream once it got going and up to projected speed at 100 million USD in 5 years
At 2% of course that is only 2 million spread over CDY's 735 million odd shares so we are not exactly in the miracle department. However CDY has many other irons in the fire including hair restorer that looks like it might go in china. Get a few other items up and running and things should look up. Probably a share consolidation wouldn't go amiss eventually
Think you have to remember that these companies and many others including our little PEB are continuously developing new markers and other research is ongoing. Who knows where it will all end but a cure for cancer would surely be the best possible result. And who knows what the next research development from Otago will come up with that PEB could develop.
Mac, barely a blip, sounds good to me. I find PEB a totally fascinating business, and have much confidence in the team.
I’m sorry to have to say that you may well be disappointed in your analysis Whipmoney, PEB told us at the time of the AGM that they could break even this financial year [1]. IMHO it’s more likely to be HY15 (November 2014).
My estimate is that this would require circa 21,000 US tests to cover costs and to turn a profit, but then as we know, PEB have already also told us that they expect to be “processing several tens of thousands of tests” within 2014 [2].
And well yes, most informed shareholders would actually see R&D as a positive within a company like PEB full of extraordinary research people and with a history of performing such R&D at one tenth the cost of what it may otherwise cost abroad [3].
The more well managed R&D, the more products entering the commercialisation pipeline, the more long term cashflows generated, fantastic.
References:
1. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-100m-forecast
2. http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/2...-edge-business
3. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11178639
ALL TIME HIGH $1.76 whatsup ?
Maybe a combination of pent up demand and anticipation of upcoming positive announcements.
The entry in to the NZX50 is known with only positive announcements possible before then limits downside risk. Who would sell, but I am sure plenty are willing to buy.
While it is all very well for PEB holders to be optimistic and generally bullish about their prospects aren't some showing signs of going all Jordan Belfort on us?
We all DON'T KNOW that PEB will be saying anything specific anytime soon other than what is expected in terms of reporting and some price movements are just a cluster of buying and have little or no significance.
If Brighton_Early is so confident that PEB will be "well over $2 by March 21" the hog is happy to enter into an arrangement whereby Brighton_Early can take advantage of this prediction, being seemingly unlimited potential upside above $2 :)