Lol, that would be handy but I would prefer green lights if possible.:)
Think if you go to Pacific Edge website it will give you most of the dates for previous releases.
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Dentie & Hancocks,
Have I got this right, Pacific Edge have suggested that sales via the NPN’s have a seven month lead time before the first sales will in practice really start to come through those channels.
Acknowledging of course that the ‘seven months’ is in all practicality just a coarse estimate provided by Pacific Edge, probably based on a feel for the market from their discussions with NPN managers.
The accumulation of sales might then commence from May for Fedmed, July for ACPN, August for Stratos and November for Multiplan.
The pending reporting period is April through September, so we may just see some very early sales start to trickle in, it would be nice though just to see the NPN sales curve initiate.
Without Medicare revenues being released within this reporting period, my estimate for the HY is for between 1,000 to 5,000 thousand sales, probably closer to the lower end of that range, although it would be nice to be pleasantly surprised.
Attachment 6429
I think also Hancock’s what some often miss in the big picture is the anticipated gross margins.
It’s such a low overhead company, helped along by low cost development in Dunedin, low cost but high quality I would say though as a caveat. The labs are all built and paid for, COGS is just test processing, sales force and overheads.
It doesn’t take a lot of sales to become very quickly profitable at 81% gross margins, around 15,000 by my estimation.
Pacific Edge are not at all like tech stocks whereby years of revenue accumulation is first required to achieve economies of scale to then achieve profitability on relatively lower margins.
Should the KP user programme that’s presently underway roll over into a contract, and I see a lot more reason why it should than should not, then my calculator tells me that one contract alone would probably make Pacific Edge a profitable going concern.
The next 12 to 18 months are really quite prospective, and this pending report I anticipate may spell that out, but no one should expect big sales at this next report, too early just yet.
From the Pacific Edge site, Fedmed signed 16 Oct, ACPN 22 Oct, Stratose 28 Nov and Multiplan 25 May this year. Given 7 months as the gestation period, ACPN should have been generating in May as well as FedMed, Stratose in June.
However, Fedmed was the first to sign up and was used as THE example as to how long it CAN take to get the whole cycle completed. This does not say that others cannot be quicker or slower, in fact I wouldnt be surprised if some of the 170 odd sales at March FY may have emanated from some of the others.
G’day MAC, not ignoring…been offline.
Considering the info available, I reckon you and Hancocks (& Miner) are about as close to being on the button as can be expected with sales numbers. I remember DD taking the time at the AGM to point out the significance of this 7 month lead in time between signing the agreements and the start of the revenue.
Hancocks, I’m not so sure on the accounting recognition of the accruing CMS business. If they are not free tests (& pretty sure they are not), I can’t see why they wouldn’t be recorded as a Receivable (until the agreement is signed), especially if the relevant COGS/Expenses is being accounted for. I’m sure one of our Accounting friends can help us here though.
In any event, looking at Hancocks’ sales territory diagram the other day, the sales related employees on the books and the current agreements…it is hard to imagine that the next sales figures will be too paltry (which I know is subjective).
Good point Miner,
Looking at the market also, there’s actually been quite a lot of progress compared with this time last year when one reflects, all a good investment in future revenue and all in parallel also, much of that work should one would hope start to come to fruition from next year forward.
- Tests now being performed (accrued) for CMS
- First HMO user programme under way with prospectively a contract coming, and four network providers signed up
- Sales territories opened up with 8 sales staff presumably busy chatting away with LUGS
GOVERNMENTAL 50%
30% CMS (Medicare & Medicaid)
20% VA (Veterans association)
PRIVATE INSURANCE 45%
20% LUGS (Large Urology Groups)
5% Other Urology Practices
20% HMO (Health Maintenance Organisations)
OTHER 5%
5% OSHA (Occupational Health & Safety Associations)
Hey does anyone have a calendar of expected announcements coming up? Going by past ann's we should have the HY on the 28 November.
Very interesting comment Balance. I remember back in the heady days of $1+ you were very bullish on PEB. What's happened?
Considering the latest run up to 95 cents was on the back of a negligible revenue booster (melanoma ann) in the next 2-3 years, I think we can safely assume any new fall would target the 60 cent area (mean reversion). Guess PEB is still prone to momentum/trader hype, no matter how many on here would like to deny it (at least until real revenues start coming through!)
Sales are likely to go in a piecewise steps, just like climbing the stairs as each contract is brought on board.
It could be either Medicare or Kaiser Permanente that is first, but neither have occurred in the six months to 30th September 2014, making the pending report quite predictable really.
Sales are a way of measuring progress with IT tech stocks because tech stocks often require years of revenue growth to achieve scales of economy before breaking even.
Molecular biotech stocks on the other hand are quite different as the gross margins are much much higher, the first big contract that comes along may well make PEB profitable.
Pacific edge could easily go from very few sales as at present to enough to make them profitable within a single reporting period.
It’s a total waste of time trying to equate early sales figures with progress toward profitability, rather one has to look at the ground work the company is putting in place.
Clock is ticking on Chairman's 'tens of thousands of tests'.
That's what is at stake here now - credibility.
Much of investing in early start companies is about management.
Anyway, one man's opinion.
Meanwhile, sales numbers*are being collated for release to market and sp is falling ahead of announcement?
No one will no how many tests there have been in 2014 until reporting time in May next year, plenty of time for that, doesn't seem unreasonable to me to expect 10,000 either actually.
I'm quite bullish on PEB, just another's opinion, they're pretty much on track, give or take, against the strategic plan they have provided, and they reaffirmed their US$100M goal as achieveable as recently as the AGM.
This coming report is all about the commentary, what they expect for the second half.
A continued reaffirmation of goals, launch of Cxbladder(triage), commentary with progress on discussion with LUG's and HMO's, timing for the next step up in sales staff from eight to twenty, timing for expansion into Asia, progress on discussions with pharma's on melanoma and colorectal companion diagnostic proposals, etc.
My bet would be on Kaiser as they have set up the latest testing with PEB. Very disappointing that no promised coverage has been announced though. Under promise and over deliver is a good motto to follow, especially in a regulated sector like medical.
PS ratio's were born out of the Dotcom Bubble because there was no other way of valuing the insanity that was going on. It is easy to see why PS ratios get out of hand on loss making companies when sentiments get irrationally exuberant. PEB was no different.
Isn't PEB quoting 80% margins on CxBladder? That is no different than gross margins for Diligent (80%+) or near Xero or VML (70%+, once the marketting/building of customers is done that is!)
Is that before or after the next capital raise? Your guess is as good as anyone's right now! Going to be interesting looking at revenues and burn rate at HY time...
You just said the only thing we could use was PS ratios. The company can put all the groundwork it wants in; if revenues never appear, it's a pure and utter dud. The more HY and FY reports that come out, the more the company will be valued on it's revenues. I hope you are prepared for that shift?
Unknowns and missed targets. Yikes! The market doesn't like uncertainty! :scared:
Good, someones has to be I guess!
I'd certainly be praying for more than commentary like the last round. This is a company that needs to make money; the bubble sentiment to push it to extreme heights is long gone. Once it's gone, words alone cannot bring it up again. The company needs real, set-in-stone results. Nothing more, nothing less.
See above. Enough talk; where's our money?!?! :D
Gawd, one could practically write a book on why all that rubbish is just fundamentally wrong. The take away though I think is just simply that it seems Moose’s are not capable of changing their spots :)