That Nck is a bit weird eh
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Analysts probably subscribing to the thesis doing the rounds in that this time post lockdown bounce won’t be as robust as previous and that looking forward once we all get vaccinated there won’t be any more lockdowns but there will be many cases of covid through out the country and consumers will be a bit worried and above no more government subsidies to struggling businesses and there will be casualties etc etc …in other words the next year might be a bit tough in retail ……and several feel that margins can’t expand forever (current expansion a bit of a one off)
Who knows what’ll happen in retail in this new world of living with covid ……and the market seems a bit wary as well (WHS and HLG in particular)
Fair point and consumers will be facing headwinds from higher interest rates too and I don't think shipping costs are going to normalize anytime soon either. That said I think the WHS are best placed of the retailers to manage their shipping costs due to their scale and tougher times will drive people more towards value buying decisions so WHS is well placed to gain market share.
That’s a good post W69, definitely food for thought. I just can’t help coming back to the simple equation:
no travel= good for retail.
And now that I think about it, when we get to the, ‘living with COVID’ stage, who is going to risk traveling? Imagine getting COVID on holiday to Europe or North America or Asia. No thanks. Travel probably depressed for years and years until we get to, herd immunity stage.
Well said, I couldn't agree more. $9 Billion a year that used to be spent on international travel is going to be spend somewhere and a fair portion of that will be on retail generally and specifically new outdoor experiences that embrace the great outdoors in N.Z. (Torpedo 7).
Playing around with Stats NZ Retail sales data (exc motor related and accommodation) I've come up with 'retail sales in NZ are currently running at around $2 billion (annual) more (+2.5%) than where we would have expected them to be if we had no covid impacts'
Excitment due from lockdown release and no overseas travel ...who knows
Pretty good eh
"and the market seems a bit wary as well'
and that lets you in at a very good P/E
after all WHS is not really a quick trade stock.
Beside some travel opening up there wont be a rush for the border in the next 12 months to travel widely.
Those who do travel will be with PPE and very careful probably with pooled information from those who have made it there and back.
Like in the old days of travel many centuries past.
Remember Dubrovnik . It has its own MIQ facilities from the 1600's onward.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/videos/travel/2021/07/27/dubrovnik-croatia-reconnect-quests-world-of-wonder-spc.cnn
It is good and set to continue. Don't think my pilgrimage / trip of a lifetime to see the Gardyne Castle in Scotland where my Mum's ancestors grew up will be happening any year soon. https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&ajaxserp=0
so there's plenty of domestic spending coming in the years ahead from this old mutt.
This is on my bucket list too, you done this trip yet mate ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MCLa9bcmaA
From my small snapshot of New Zealand, I just see people getting out and about doing stuff. It's just awesome. As an example, some of my quiet local trout fishing rivers have become really popular with all sorts of people, young, old, experienced and newbies. Our local mountain bike park and tramping areas also are going off. I know the lastest lockdown is a challenge but overall people seem to be embracing adventure. To do this, requires stuff. And IMO people seem happy to buy stuff to support their adventures. I actually think it's healthy for everyone and as a consequence, WHS earning too. Bring ng on the summer.